Creditcane™: It's funny how mice (low volume) can move an elephant (market).
SPXBullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Failing SMA(233). Holding above the 38.2% retrace (1241.13). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1243.72). QE2infinity. Still above weekly 3LB mid and the monthly 3LB mid.
DXYBearish thrusting day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed the 0.0% retrace (80.39). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 79.14). Confirming the monthly 3LB reversal up.
VIXBearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Holding above its 38.2% minor retrace (21.62). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 20.73). The grip of the "fear" zone has been eliminated (for now).
GOLDBearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing its 61.8% retrace (1592.30). Failing SMA(233). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1586.90). Must have the precious.
EURUSDTakuri day (also possible bullish harami). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing all SMA's. Failing its 0.0% retrace (1.3022). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3199).
JNKSpinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(144). Holding above its 50.0% retrace (38.24). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 38.94).
10YR YIELDSpinning top day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 0.0% retrace (18.96). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 20.68).
WTIDoji day. Holding above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 50.0% retrace (97.56). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 94.07). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal down.
SILVERBullish thrusting day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 100.0% minor retrace (26.44). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 28.94).
BKXBullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above SMA(55). Holding above its 61.8% minor retrace (38.43). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.05).
HYG/LQDBullish long day. Holding above SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). Failing its 50.0% retrace (0.7942). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7818).
USDJPYBearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(144). Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (77.650). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 75.52).
IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.
42 comments:
Anyone remember how much is lost in GDP with every $1 rise in gas prices?
AmenRa,
this one..
"...every $1 per barrel rise in oil decreases U.S. GDP by $100 billion ..."
is popular..
others, here:
http://search.yippy.com/search?query=lost+GDP+with+every+%241+rise+in+gas+prices&tb=sitesearch-all&v%3Aproject=clusty
get closer to 'whay you are looking for'...~
AAIP
whay=what
Ra, here's a oil price and GDP calculator. Think I remember a 1 cent increase in gas prices equals $1B lost in GDP.
AAIP & QQQQ
Thanks. QQQQ according to that graphic every $10 rise in Brent is a 0.5% loss in GDP. So looking at a chart of Brent I see from 9/30/11 to 10/14/11 Brent went from $98 to $108 and has stayed around that price since. So that GDP loss of 0.5% is still in effect.
WORKING FOR LESS; U.S. Manufacturing Gains Jobs as Wages Retreat - NY Times
"The wages for the new hires, however, are $10 to $15 an hour less than the pay scale for hourly employees already on staff — with the additional concession that the newcomers will not catch up for the foreseeable future. Such union-endorsed contracts are also showing up in the auto industry, at steel and tire companies, and at manufacturers of farm implements and other heavy equipment, according to Gordon Pavy, president of the Labor and Employment Relations Association and, until recently, the A.F.L.-C.I.O.’s director of collective bargaining.
The shrunken pay scale for newcomers — $12 to $19 an hour versus $21 to $32 an hour for longtime workers — threatens to undo the middle-class status of even the best-paid blue-collar jobs still left in manufacturing"
The market for corporate borrowing through U.S. commercial paper (FCPOTOTS) dropped to the lowest level in two months as investors reduced holdings of banks’ short-term IOUs on concern that Europe’s fiscal crisis is spreading.
The seasonally adjusted amount of U.S. commercial paper outstanding fell $27.2 billion to $959.3 billion in the week ended Dec. 28, the fourth consecutive decline, the Federal Reserve said today on its website. That’s the biggest weekly decrease since the period ended Sept. 7, bringing the market to the lowest since Oct. 19.
U.S. money-market mutual funds, among the biggest buyers of commercial paper, are reducing short-term obligations from financial institutions, which are also increasingly wary of the risks of lending to each other. Euro-area banks parked 452 billion euros ($591 billion) of overnight deposits with the Frankfurt-based European Central Bank on Dec. 27, the most since the euro’s introduction in 1999 as financial strains in the region persisted.
...Bloomberg...
Wait a minute. If Verizon is thinking about having its customers pay $2 to pay their bill online or by phone then why wouldn't customers go back to mailing it in?
Todays line in the sand for the bulls is last years close and the 200SMA (1257.64 & 1258.84 respectively). "Raise the bridge. Do not let the bears cross the moat."
http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/imf-urges-european-firewall-around-ireland-20111221-1p4j1.html
IMF urges European firewall around Ireland December 21, 2011
Ireland’s European benefactors should take steps to create a firewall around the nation, as its prospects remain “fragile” amid the escalating euro-region debt crisis, the International Monetary Fund said.
The crisis may hamper Irish economic growth, increase the cost of re-entering bond markets and make it harder for the country’s banks to sell off assets, the Washington-based fund said today in its fourth review of Ireland’s bailout program.
...Firewall....nah. When I was very small the old ones spoke of having to go to the poorhouse...I think all the PIIGS, at the least, will find themselves living there.
+0.5% SPX yearly close is WAY more better than
-0.5. ...just saying (Obama wins, again, see, he even saved the stock market)
... lets not mention foodstamps recipients are up about 45% since JAN-09
... lets not mention gas prices are up about 95% since JAN-09
... lets not mention the civilian labor force in this country is down about 1% since JAN-09 (I think I see lower highs and lower lows in this chart, maybe that doesn't mean anything)
... don't even wanna talk about the debt!
BinT, haven't received a cost of living raise for almost 3 years now. Use to get 1-3%/YR for as long as I can remember.
Are they trying to get the EURUSD back to 1.3000 before the year closes? 10yr yields are saying run for the hills BTW.
Making a cameo appearance in the office today. Will have some charts and market thoughts ready to roll on Monday (Holiday)
Also, "two thumbs" way up for New Years day falling on a Sunday....
Completely pumped for this weekend.
euro, isn't it trading near 38.2 of 2010 lows and 2011 highs?
I still think it's weird when DXY is down and US bonds are up. Also when EURUSD is up and SPX is down. Correlation hell.
" More than 2.5 million voters have left the Democratic and Republican parties since the 2008 elections, while the number of independent voters continues to grow.
A USA TODAY analysis of state voter registration statistics shows registered Democrats declined in 25 of the 28 states that register voters by party. Republicans dipped in 21 states, while independents increased in 18 states.
The trend is acute in states that are key to next year's presidential race. In the eight swing states that register voters by party, Democrats' registration is down by 800,000 and Republicans' by 350,000. Independents have gained 325,000."
@Q's
Thanks for the "link" to the Au/Ag dealer... I appreciate the thought...
Only problem is... I'm totally against doing any kind of transactions online (for anything)...
The reasons for such should be obvious & abundant...
Look - I'm going to be clear about Au & Ag... In the end, they're going to find a way to come for it... THEY WANT IT FROM YOU... TRUST ME... (I really think, based on what I've observed over the past 2 weeks, that A LOT of small time coin dealers will be put out of business in the next 9 months or so, if (& as) a technical "paper" correction on spot PM prices is capable of being manufactured)... In some ways (& in my thinking), it would not be all that different from the way they managed to 'weed out' weaker financial institutions (Bear, Merrill, Wachovia, Lehman, etc.) years before... Only difference is that this time the target will be towards physical PM dealers...
Less avenues to deal with = easier to control...
Frankly - It's probably not in anyone's best interest to own any PM's because it's not like you're ever going to get rich owning them (as it'll probably end up that the day that it becomes priceless [which is probably NOW], is the day that it'll probably be declared illegal to OWN, TRANSACT WITH, or transactions involving such can only be done with the government & they'll tell you what it's worth [not unlike annexing property])...
So cv's WHOLE RHETORIC on this is probably a bunch of bullshit in the end...
As well... my rhetoric towards 'trading' is probably also a bunch of bullshit (as it represents the ONLY GAME IN TOWN...
My final logic simply flows from the "finality" of acceptance that I've reached that despite the profit & loss "wins & losses", It's really just Monopoly money that everyone is playing with at this point...
The SMARTEST PEOPLE IN THE ROOM (to me), are the ones who can figure out a way to convert that Monopoly money into some set of hard assets that will be useful to make a living out of when the BANKERS (of the Monopoly game) decide to rake all the little plastic houses & hotels away, take away the little tokens, fold up the board, & put it on the shelf...
@Amen
If Verizon is thinking about having its customers pay $2 to pay their bill online or by phone then why wouldn't customers go back to mailing it in?
---
Because Verizon knows that with SNAIL MAIL, the payment will arrive "late" (& therefore be subject to a $25 late charge)...
@QQQQ
haven't received a cost of living raise for almost 3 years now. Use to get 1-3%/YR for as long as I can remember.
---
Yeah... But don't you read the government & Fed numbers???
CPI is down... THERE IS NO cost of living increase...
Now... In 5...4...3...2... they'll 'clawback' your former raises (you know - because the COL is actually GOING DOWN according to the 'Ministry of Propaganda' numbers...
Do your PATRIOTIC DUTY and re-imburse them...
(You're a TEAR OUR WRIST if you don't, & will be spending your next vacation at Gitmo)...
@Amen
I still think it's weird when DXY is down and US bonds are up. Also when EURUSD is up and SPX is down. Correlation hell.
---
The "new" universal correlation is Euro:Gold
Bottom line on that is...
The Euro can't fail... Not that it WON'T, but it would be a HUGE blow to the NWO if the Euro would fail...
I know it's hard for peeps on this blog to get a grasp on that (because most of you basically give me a "BWAHAHAAHAHAHA" coupled with raspberries whenever I talk NWO)...
Why?
Because y'all think that the NWO is the "tooth fairy"... Whether it IS or ISN'T is not important to anyone here... It's easier to just call cv a lunatic rather than try and think about what might be happening...
Frankly... I HAVE NO FUCKING CLUE if a NWO exists... I hear conspiracies & give them their due... I mention them in front of an audience & get called a crackpot... I try to take the middle road (offering logical skepticism)...
But I gotta say... In my own observation of things... Over a long period of time... I've come to a conclusion... Whether NWO exists or not, I'm CONVINCED that there are actually groups WHO WOULD LIKE this "idea" to come to fruition...
Worse... They seem to have done a fairly good "marketing" job... I only have to come to this blog and read comments by bloggers (who I actually have a high opinion of) talk about "markets" & "prices" every day as if this were, like, 1995 all over again to understand that IF THERE IS a NWO... They've done their PR job very well...
Anyway... Back to "Euro can't fail" concept...
For anyone with half a brain... The EURO is (was) always the 'beta project' of the NWO... If they could get that to work, then "next up" was ONE WORLD GOVERNMENT (all the intermittent wars & skirmishes & regime changes are a sideshow to this, but also part of it)...
I'm NOT saying success is guaranteed... BUT IT'S SURE AS HELL what the the small group of perpetrators are hoping to create... And what is that?
Simply said... A TOLLBOOTH... A unified system where all the debt that has been accumulated in the history of mankind eventually gets bought by (or handed over to) a small group... Then, they use a projection of force to TAX future payments on that debt out of you... FOREVER... It's too messy to have multiple currencies, multiple exchange arbitrage mechanisms, & all that to create the rightful settlement bureau... So it has to be homogenized... The EURO was the first large scale attempt at that (owing also to the cross-cultural implications)...
Anyway... moving closer to the NWO desire of a "one world currency"... Euro:Gold, in this phase of the operation, is the "Correlation du jour"...
I'm not saying ANYTHING is a foregone conclusion at this point... I'm only saying that attempts to "spare" the Euro (if, only by means of perception & distinction), will be given 100% effort...
& I expect GOLD to stay hitched to that wagon...
IOW...
If "the dollar" represents US hedgemony
Euro:Gold represents NWO hedgemony (or, more simply, if the Euro fails... I mean REALLY fails... Then the NWO will suffer a setback in their plans... Stay tuned...
2012 should be "interesting" to say the least...
Oh...
& Happy New Year bitchez!
Go Ravens!
QQQQ,
I have been doing a little more reading than usual this week, wife is out of town, and I'm hiked out.
I think as the weeks have progressed in 2011, that I wouldn't be surprised to see a global recession for 2012. I think Europe, which after all has a greater population than the US, will have a deep recession. Even Mish commented on this today, and I live with a woman who still thinks we may be in a depression since 2008.
The only thing I can offer is that the US is set up for people who are self-employed. I was the poorest kid in my class, and have worked for myself since I got out of the army and finished college. Wasn't easy but anything you can do along that line will help you.
Happy new year.
cv, that's alot to digest :)
SPX gonna close YTD neg, maybe? LOL
cv, have to run... but I was think'n a recession started a few months ago, but I"m not an expert on this sort of things. Just see stuff in some of the charts I make.
Still saving every extra penny, and since I still live on the road (company paid) I'll buy land/house when I think we're close to a bottom. Thought 2011 was going to be the bottom but now think it may be next or the year after. (subject to change of course) I wanna be 100% debt free.
About gold, we differ I know but it has been working in my favor... so far...
@QQQQ
Well... being as you have to run & all...
"You surriii I speeek ur RANGUAGE... But u fohgeh I were eehukaded at UCRA..."
Charts:
Gasoline as share of income
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2011/12/20111230_FOC1.png
Stocks vs. Gold
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2011/12/20111230_FOC3.png
Guns & Ammo sales
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2011/12/20111230_FOC2.png
---
I'm sure that all can be explained real easy... I'll do my best 'Nouriel Roubini' here...
"Gasoline, Gold, & Guns are in a BAUBLE"...
So by that logic (over a decade)... I'm assuming that it was all just a FEAR TRADE... That now... You know... That the economic crisis has passed (due to expert management by central bankers policymaking worldwide)... That people are going to start SELLING their gold & guns, creating a worldwide glut...
Tomorrow night... OPEN YOUR WINDOWS... That roaring noise you'll hear (as well as all those 'bangs') will be people driving their vehicles around and shooting off all their spare ammo in the air in CELEBRATION of the anticipation of the SPY going to 140 next year & all the fiats they'll be expecting to flood into their electronic UNREHYPOTHECATEABLE trading accounts...
Party like it's 1999 baby!
"The only thing I can offer is that the US is set up for people who are self-employed. I was the poorest kid in my class, and have worked for myself since I got out of the army and finished college. Wasn't easy but anything you can do along that line will help you."
Amen to that concept.
Ruh roh there's goes the 200SMA & 2010 close.
I want to see how the SPX settles. Button pushing, manipulation and the kitchen sink are in full effect until then.
Now it takes five minutes for SPX to settle but I'd expect to see a wayward print around 16:15.
@Q's
By the way...
My TRUE thoughts (vis-a-vis the above charts) should be interpreted (by any 'deeper thinking' individual) as being INVERSE to how they are presented...
That is...
The fallacy (IMO) is in looking at "gold prices", or "gasoline prices" as being higher...
INSTEAD... It's representative of THE DOLLAR as being worth 'less & less' as time goes by (which shouldn't be hard to understanding considering the value of the doller since it was born in 1913)...
So the question... REALLY... Is to ask yourself WHY you would determine to calculate your actual WEALTH as denominated by tradeable little Pokemon cards that continue to be moving towards a value of ZERO (& have consistently performed in this direction over a period of almost 100 years)...
But to your point...
I do wish you well, & hope that in 2012 (or sometime soon), you will be able to part with LESS of your stack of Pokemon cards to acquire that piece of land than you would have had to do in the past...
Maybe then you'll have a few stacks of the cards left to get a generator &/or other things that will make that land & that home liveable...
Bruce won't have to worry... He's already got the land & the Prius... & soon, Bruce will be able to replace the battery to the Prius with a new technology "wood gasification" engine...
PS... I can't help it guys... YES... I actually do AMUSE myself with these ruminations... (& the only reason 'karen' doesn't come around to post - even after a week where cv doesn't post anything - is because she's doubled up in LAUGHTER over my sense of humor and can't reach the keyboard)... lol
16:09...
CNBS just tossed out all of their celebration stories. Hardee har har.
But we're still above the daily 3LB mid so bears only won a little skirmish.
The only thing I can offer is that the US is set up for people who are self-employed
The only thing I can offer is that the US is set up for people who are self-RELIANT... (or at least it was FOUNDED by people who thought that way... The experiment has since gone awry)...
---
There... FIXED it...
SPX went from 1257.6 to close 2010 to 1257.6 to close 2011.
What an unbelievable co-incidence that all those E-TRADE babies should have battled amongst themselves to such a draw...
I can't wait to sell any physical assets I might have (by Tuesday), and transfer it all to an electronic trading account, because I feel... I MEAN REALLY FEEL... That I'll make a difference next year (along with my decision to support Obama)...
"The only thing I can offer is that the US is set up for people who are self-employed. I was the poorest kid in my class, and have worked for myself since I got out of the army and finished college. Wasn't easy but anything you can do along that line will help you."
Amen to that concept.
x2
~~
cv--
"self-reliant"/"self-employed" is a, bit of a, Hair Split, no?
this: "INSTEAD... It's representative of THE DOLLAR as being worth 'less & less' as time goes by (which shouldn't be hard to understanding considering the value of the doller since it was born in 1913)..."
though, should give, many, cause for consternation..
the hand-over, to the FedRes, of our Monetary Sovereignty has made the 'whole' "Marketplace" suspect..to the point that, now, "We" are All Suspects..
AAIP
the, soon, to be 'Official'"Story"..
Major Averages Close Moderately Lower On The Day, Mixed For The Year
http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=123020110922
ibid.
There you go....
http://vitals.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/01/03/9917514-real-benjamin-button-stem-cells-reverse-aging-in-mice
Discovering stems cells that can mitigate/reverse the aging process.
Post a Comment