Yeah, it's one of those days. 
Creditcane™: What do you expect from me when there is no volume?
SPXSpinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(233). Holding above the 38.2% retrace (1241.13). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1243.72). QE2infinity. Still above weekly 3LB mid and the monthly 3LB mid.
DXYBearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above the 38.2% minor retrace (79.38). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 79.14). Confirming the monthly 3LB reversal up.
VIXBearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and held its 38.2% minor retrace (21.62). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 23.22). The grip of the "fear" zone has been eliminated (for now).
GOLDBearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 61.8% retrace (1592.30). Tested and held SMA(233). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1802.90). Must have the precious.
EURUSDBullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing all SMA's. Holding above its 0.0% retrace (1.3022). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3252).
JNKBullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above SMA(144). Tested and held its 61.8% retrace (38.86). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 38.65).
10YR YIELDBearish short day (bearish harami?). Holding above SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (18.96). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 20.68).
WTIBullish long day. Holding above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 50.0% retrace (97.56). New high on dally 3LB (reversal is 94.07). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal down.
SILVERBearish short day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing its 61.8% minor retrace (29.76). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 29.91).
BKXBearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above SMA(55). Holding above its 61.8% minor retrace (38.43). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.05).
HYG/LQDSpinning top day. Holding above SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed its 50.0% retrace (0.7942). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7818).
USDJPYBearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(144). Tested and held its 50.0% minor retrace (77.650). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 75.52).
COPPERBearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(21,55). Tested and failed its 61.8% minor retrace (3.452). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 3.615).
IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.
14 comments:
Odd that I didn't hear about this earlier:
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-12-21/japan-s-aaa-credit-rating-cut-for-first-time-by-tokyo-based-r-i.html
Japan’s AAA Credit Rating Cut for First Time by Tokyo-Based R&I
By Kyung Bok Cho and Rocky Swift
Dec. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Tokyo-based Ratings & Investment Information Inc. cut Japan’s sovereign ranking for the first time, citing “uncertain” prospects for economic recovery.
R&I lowered Japan’s foreign- and domestic-currency issuer ratings one step to AA+ from AAA, the company said in a statement today. The company had put Japan on its ratings monitor for a downgrade on Nov. 30.
Japan’s outstanding government debt “would inevitably rise for an extensive period of time” even if the sales tax rate were increased, said the statement. Real gross domestic product is likely to contract this fiscal year as the strong yen and effects from a record earthquake in March weigh on the economy, it said.
“Prospects for economic revitalization are also uncertain,” the ratings company said. “R&I can no longer consider the government’s ability to adjust fiscal conditions on its own to be at a level required for the highest rating.”
Anyone get the feeling that this shit will never end, I mean, the economy seemed really bad a few years ago, then, hey maybe it's not as bad as we thought. But, we found it was really worse than we thought, again. Seemed the world economy could collapse any day, then those days turned into weeks, then months and years - well now it's another year and we're still just rolling (limping) along.
Kind of seems like this will go on for another few years and all might be somewhat ok. Maybe I'm just dizzy from spray painting cargo containers all day in the sun and got it all wrong... I don't know.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204879004577108630218485566.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Internal BNY Mellon Documents Show Panic
By JEAN EAGLESHAM And MICHAEL SICONOLFI
An informant in a state fraud case against Bank of New York Mellon Corp. has provided prosecutors a rare inside peek into how the bank allegedly scrambled to contain the fallout from a fast-growing government investigation, according to hundreds of pages of confidential documents.
As investigators sought to determine whether the bank overcharged clients to execute their currency trades, a senior BNY Mellon executive nicknamed "Rambo" urged traders not to tell clients how much money they made on trading, according to the informant. Bank officials worried clients would switch to negotiating their own foreign-exchange trades, where the bank's profit margin was far lower, an internal bank memo states.
BNY Mellon was duping large instituions. Imagine what they'll do to you.
QQQQ
Each iteration of the problems with the debt are happening faster each time. So years become months, months become weeks, weeks become days.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-27/japan-factory-output-falls-on-global-slump.html
“The big drop in the numbers this time is due more to the Thai flooding than to the global economy,” Itochu’s Maruyama said. “In terms of the production numbers now, basically it’s on a downward trend in the long run.”
The biggest seasonally adjusted monthly drops in industrial production were in the information electronics industry, with overall output dropping 23.7 percent, today’s figures show. Passenger car output slid 12.6 percent; iron and steel production declined 1.2 percent.
TNX down 1.2%
Even with low volume there are problems keeping EURUSD above 1.3000. Imagine what happens when the volume returns.
Amen:
I don't think everyone is looking at the big picture. The "good news" about Italian short-term debt dropping today..I doubt that has any real value. I think the numbers out of Japan are awful, really awful. And I think most of Europe is already in recession.
..I am not relieved that the US numbers have been slightly better lately. I just think that when you have this much global debt, that the debt itself tends to put out any little fires of enthusiasm. Maybe we are still kicking the can, but the end of the road is ahead..
BinT
Italian short term is not the problem. It's their long term debt that will take them down. Add in the fact that the LTRO is getting parked at the ECB instead of buying sovereign debt is another problem.
Japan's largest problem is the age of their population. Fewer and fewer citizens are being born that can support their debt.
Nice rhetoric from Iran...
This would be really messy if they started doing any of this...
http://www.cnbc.com/id/45803088
EURUSD below 61.8% retrace (1.2997) on the weekly chart. Next support is 1.2882 from the week of 1/14/11.
It's going to get messy soon. Perhaps tomorrow, if I feel like it.
TNX closed at 19.08 and is down 5% today.
DXY headed to 81 if not by the close then in the overnight session.
http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI
~27.04
anyone thinking Silver is going to break the Jan. '011/ Sept. '011 (whisker) - Lows ?
or, similarly, does it 'hold' N. of ~25?
AAIP
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