Creditcane™: Funny what happens when the curtain gets pulled back.
SPXBearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(21). Tested and failed the 38.2% retrace (1241.13). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1285.09). QE2infinity. Back below monthly & daily 3LB mids.
DXYSpinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held the 61.8% minor retrace (78.16). Holding above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 76.03). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal up…yet.
VIXBullish short day (sellers were rejected). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(89). Holding above its 50.0% retrace (29.84). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 48.00). The grip of the "fear" zone is strong.
GOLDBearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Failing its 61.8% minor retrace (1792.10). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1639.80). Must have the precious.
EURUSDSpinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Now failing its 61.8% minor retrace (1.3596). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.3940).
JNKBearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(55). Failing its 50.0% retrace (38.24). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.74).
10YR YIELDSpinning top day. Tested and failed SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing its 38.2% minor retrace (21.37). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 22.32).
WTIBullish long day. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its 61.8% retrace (101.73). New high on dally 3LB (reversal is 97.79). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal down.
SILVERBearish short day. Holding above SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Failing its 61.8% retrace (35.25). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 36.58).
BKXBearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing SMA(21). Tested and failed its 61.8% minor retrace (38.43). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 36.51).
HYG/LQDBearish short day. Tested and held SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above its 61.8% minor retrace (0.7643). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7966).
USDJPYSpinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(21). Failing its 61.8% minor retrace (77.497). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 75.70). Let's see how long this lasts.
COPPERSpinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(21). Tested and held its 61.8% minor retrace (3.452). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 3.706).
IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.
15 comments:
comments at the end of the last thread...
two things from the last thread
Bass is talking his book yes? Why do we only say he's smart and not acknowledge the other side of it? B/c we all like him is why. He has a deeply vested interest now in a great deal of illiquid assets based on a one way track world-view. Lets not pretend that doesn't exist with him, I love the guy just as much as you guys do, he's smart as hell, but perspective is in order always, maybe he'll be right, maybe he won't. If shit hits the fan he’s all set. Great.
Second, CV, please spare me the whole "who said anything about buying silver" as if you aren't trying to claim anything else in that thread and the same goes for the "well, I could see as an investment advisor why you'd say that"
Wake up bro, 1964 was nearly 50 years ago. When does the average person gain a meaningful sum of money in their life where that exchange is easily recognized as beneficial for them today in 2011?
Is it by age 30, sure maybe some people made a significant amount of money by age 30 in 1964 or inherited it, making that person nearly 80 years old today, so you are almost or slightly above even by 80, is it age 40-45 you make that exchange, making that person most likely dead by now?
my perspective here is really quite simple I'd think, in the real world, where investment advisors live, we have to operate under assumptions for the individual about returns on capital that they’ll be able to recognize while they have a good deal of probability of still being alive, and how are they are going to utilize it, how much will be required to meet living needs, etc.
This example of "well, in 1964 if you exchanged for nickels you are finally happy about that in 2012, smartest guys around those nickel holders" doesn't fly with me for many reasons.
Gold and silver lost 83% of their combined value during the 21 year period from 1980 to April 2001. I tried to have the conversation with you a few weeks about opportunity cost/time is money..... but that was a total waste of time. What you fail to understand I guess is that if I’m advising someone to have done that over what is a reasonable period for real investment for most people then I am a total FAIL at being an advisor. Investors that did so were stuck with THE worst investment available and that time in particular it was the worst because it was the only major investment that lost dollar value during those decades. Real estate, stocks, bonds....all went higher. Research I have shows that at the end of 2001 in inflated dollar terms, for each full dollar that a basket of gold and silver were worth in 1980, they were now worth 17 cents. If you measure it by the CPI purchasing power then it was six cents per 1980 dollar. Stock prices went up over the same period by a multiple of 13 in terms of dollars and 45 times in terms of gold.
This is not to say it will be the same performance moving forward not my point AT ALL. The point, which again I find entirely logical, was that holding silver since 1964 has not really been Sheen style winning, it would appear it’s been a net loser but I’ll need to dig deeper to figure that out.
Finally, I’ve been suggesting clients have some sort of physical gold or silver since before I ever knew you, so no need to follow up about the merits of owning it, I’m well aware of all that.
Recalculating...TURN RIGHT NOW!
My .02
http://inflation.us/charts.html
"money is made in the buying, but you never realize a gain until you sell"...
"now if it's just about their feeling happy, well, I have no argument for that other than to say my goal when operating markets is not simply to feel happy...
I’ve been suggesting clients have some sort of physical gold or silver since before I ever knew you, so no need to follow up about the merits of owning it, I’m well aware of all that.
Words to live by (for some)...
As for me???
- I never 'measured myself' by comparing the amounts at which I bought something & where I sold it...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vygFotutz7Y
- H.A.P.P.Y.??? I like to be that... It 'helps to chase all my blues away' (but that's just me)...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6g-lhdlWj2c
- People have been proposing the merits of that LONG BEFORE you & I (or these guys) were ever around...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1fHtUfbqtm4
Let me put this statement...
I never 'measured myself' by comparing the amounts at which I bought something & where I sold it...
Into another context...
If we were all 'robotic accountants' or something of the like, we'd GIVE A RAT'S FUCK about the fact that the US just crossed the threshold to a $15 trillion dollar defecit, right?
But go to the window right now and open it up... Is that the sound you hear of 350 million people giving a rats fuck about what THEY (or the LEADERS they elected) bought & sold shit for?
I opened my window (just for comparison sake)... What I hear is...
CRICKETS
id guess throughout all of history the general public never concerned themselves with such things CV, it's the whole reason Federal Reserve banks can exist
plus, deficits don't matter, that Dick guy said so.
@ben22
actually - "That DICK guy" never actually said "Defecits don't matter"...
Same way that "Al" guy nevre actually said "I invented the internet"...
But who has the energy to debate these facts anymore anyway...
I'm more in a music "nostalgic" mood tonight... Somehow, today, I got reminded of the fact that back in the day, I actually had a hand in executive producing these girls to their first hit (here)... Amen - you're probably the only one who remembers this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QzyyJZktM9c
I also had a story on this... Not by way of EP, but with a different story...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VZEkw9c4wZ0&feature=related
@Amen
What pisses me off is the idea that that bitch J-Lo was just an average ho from the Bronx when 'my girls' showed the way... Then a decade later she's MISS THING & never utters a peep about which latina 'girl bands' gave he an inspiration to get her a start...
But just listen...
(1999) J-Lo "Waiting for Tonight" (Hex Hector remix)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ArFNMEUfzvM
(1988) Sweet Sensation "Take it while it's Hot" (Omar's Dub Mix)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OHd6ZqQhhOw&feature=results_video&playnext=1&list=PL49538FF3285140DA
minus the horn section/add the trance element - but it's the same UNCREDITED shit...
Was in the gym today and saw this guy with tattoos all over his face and neck. The dude had a skull on his right temple surrounded by cobwebs.
Good luck with that next job interview....
C'mon man!
Ben....
In re: cost/time/performance....
Agree and agree.
Futures:
DXY +0.30%
EURUSD -0.26%
ES +0.22%
How long will this disconnect last?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-16/banks-in-u-s-facing-serious-risk-on-contagion-from-europe-fitch-says.html
key quote:
"While U.S. banks have hedged some of their risk with credit-default swaps, those may not be effective if voluntary debt forgiveness becomes “more prevalent” and the insurance provisions of the instruments aren’t triggered, Fitch said in the report. The top five U.S. banks had $22 billion in hedges tied to stressed markets, according to Fitch."
Random pop culture thoughts....
I mentioned a few months ago about reading the Hunger Games trilogy...
On the recommendation of my 14 year old daughter..."daddy, you have to read these books right now."
Just saw the official trailer for the first installment....
http://m.youtube.com/index?desktop_uri=%2F&gl=US#/watch?v=4S9a5V9ODuY
This movie should be huge.... Lionsgate should make out OK.
http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=LGF
AT,
'Lions Gate' has been 'pounding it out', recently..
AAIP
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