Weekend Timeouts

- FANTASY SPORTS NATION HOMEPAGE -

As I stated before... I'm going to continue to publish a weekend 'feature' game (NCAA or NFL) here in this space (as well as a link to the blog space I'm running now which deals exclusively with NCAA/NFL Football & Fantasy Sports)...

- link to all week 6 NFL picks -

- link to all week 7 ncaa picks -

2011 NFL Picks (YTD regular season aggregate): 39-34-1
2011 NFL Picks (YTD regular season 'unit picks' aggregate differential): (+13)
2011 NFL Picks (YTD regular season 'exotics' differential): (+3)
2011 NFL Picks (week 6): 0-0
2011 NFL (week 6 'unit picks' differential): (+0)

*all picks 'ATS' (against the spread)

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WEEK 6 PREVIEW: If I have something 'general' to say as a PREVIEW, I'll say it... If not, I don't say jack (& go right to the games)... I'll say 2 things here...

1. Above... Starting this week... I've begun to include my 2011 'aggregate' results (for picks - ATS)... I don't generally start posting 'cumulative' numbers until about the time that the BCS bowl standings in college football come out... The NCAA has nothing to do with the NFL, but the BCS rankings come out at this time for a reason... They tend to 'smooth out' any 'week per week' bias (whereby a handicapper like myself may have had an awkardly bad, or excessively lucky week)...

I'm playing for full season results... The shape of a football is a 'PROLATE SHPERIOD'... If you flunked high school geometry, don't worry... I'm here to tell you that if you bet on football based on your emotions, then your bank account ought to soon reflect a relatively similar fundamental lack of respect for how prolate spheroids bounce from week to week (especially on Sundays in the fall - and all other variables tied to that outcome)...

2. Las Vegas Sportsbooks are a BUSINESS (much like, say, Wall Street or 'Broad Street' as the case may be)...

Reggie Valentine - Capricorn...

They'd have been out of business a long time ago if everything (for the public), was easy pickin's... Consider that angle EVERY WEEK if you ever decide to do anything like LEGAL sports wagering... This blog does not advocate ILLEGAL sports wagering, & cautions ANYONE who likes to engage in the LEGAL sort for entertainment, to do it with restraint & respect...

Any given week, the slate of games may or may not have a tilt towards one direction or another... There are only TWO directions...

- The PATRONS

- The HOUSE

In the end, the house always wins (many times, simply by the 10% 'margins' they collect on INCORRECT bets)...

As an 'enthusiast', I always like to look at the aggregate slate of games to try & determine which side has the advantage (Not from a 'game for game' perspective - but from a WEEKLY 'slate for slate' perspective)... The linesmakers have SOME control of this (after all - it is THEY who set the betting lines)... But really it is the PUBLIC who is the judge & jury...

The jury is often wrong (as with politics)... It's laughably easy to understand this when you see that Americans had the capacity to put a George Bush or Barack Obama in office... Then realize that their 'justification' for doing so, in retrospect, (aka - "Monday morning quarterbacking")... was based on some silly idea that John McCain, or John Kerry, or Al Gore might have been worse)...

I've heard the term "mental masturbation" used many times by clever individuals around the globe... Anyway - in politics, they seem to take those ideas to the extreme...

In football... Thankfully... Correct & Incorrect decisions tend to be much more [bracketed] with respect to the ramifications of bad choices... Somebody wins... Somebody loses... The results are entered into the ledger... & everybody moves on... People in future generations generally aren't expected to pay for the bad choices (sometimes referred to as 'debt') from the past... More importantly... Nothing is done on credit & leverage is practically non-existent... This is a CASH BUSINESS... It's probably the only remaining TRUE venue of market capitalism left on the planet (unless, of course, Carl Cheffers, Scott Green, or Clete Blakeman & their crews are officiating - whereby you might as well just toss your worthless dollars into the ring along with Chicago politics, "K street", or any of the "merc" exchanges on the planet)...

I say this because the PUBLIC (in this week 6 - to me), seems pretty enthralled with some teams that either Vegas (or the sportswriters  - who EQUAL the regular WHORE news media [imho]), have managed to "sell the package" (at this juncture) as to who the FLAVOR OF THE DAY teams are & these notions are reflected in the betting biases... IOW - Wrongfootedness 101...

When these moments arrive, I go back to my fundamentals... My fundamentals are always based on what my PRE-SEASON PICKS were... Readers of this blog will know that My FINAL FOUR (so to speak) were: Patriots, Saints, Packers, & Ravens... I really didn't care about 'Dream Teams' or the like... I looked at the variables & I made my choices... I'm sticking to those choices...

So we arrive at a week like this (where everyone wants to try out the new COMBO MEAL)... They want to know about the Lions, the Bills, the Raiders, the Texans... They want to know if they're

 '2 Legit 2 quit'...

I don't bother with that (because it's a smaller part of my AGGREGATE calculations - which - as stated above - I don't usually start publishing until around the time that the BCS rankings come out)... Was I right (pre-season)? was I wrong? What adjustments need to be made? Who is BTE? Who is worse? Who is having bad luck? Who is getting lucky?... Who has the discipline & culture to overcome?... Who doesn't?...

To put it in to mathematics, a football season is 16 games (which could be broken up into 4 'quarters', [as they do the games themselves])... We're in week 6 here, which basically means we're barely in to the 2nd quarter (some teams have not had bye weeks yet, only 12 out of 32 teams will have after this weekend)... In a football game, ANY team can come back from a 1st quarter hole (or LOSE IT - as the case may be)... But the dynamic here is that you have to have a certain CHARACTER of a team (not to mention quality) to overcome a hole you've dug for yourself...

I feel that that is playing in to the 'game lines' that the public are jumping all over this week... As mentioned above... I MAY BE RIGHT, OR I MAY BE WRONG about this (but it is simply my opinion as an 'interested' author of a blog who has studied these dynamics over a long period of time & is trying to offer my best free advice on the subject)...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lUmP-aS0fYM

Friday night I crashed your party
Saturday I said I'm sorry
Sunday came and trashed it out again
I was only having fun
Wasn't hurting anyone
And we all enjoyed the weekend for a change

I've been stranded in the combat zone
I walked through Bedford Stuy alone
Even rode my motorcycle in the rain
And you told me not to drive
But I made it home alive
So you said that only proves that I'm insane

You may be right
I may be crazy
But it just might be a lunatic you're looking for
Turn out the light
Don't try to save me
You may be wrong for all I know
But you may be right

Remember how I found you there
Alone in your electric chair
I told you dirty jokes until you smiled
You were lonely for a man
I said take me as I am
'Cause you might enjoy some madness for a while
Now think of all the years you tried to
Find someone to satisfy you
I might be as crazy as you say
If I'm crazy then it's true
That it's all because of you
And you wouldn't want me any other way

You may be right
I may be crazy
But it just may be a lunatic you're looking for
It's too late to fight
It's too late to change me
You may be wrong for all I know
But you may be right

You may be right
I may be crazy
But it just may be a lunatic you're looking for
Turn out the light
Don't try to save me
You may be wrong for all I know
You may be right
You may be wrong but you may be right (x6, fades away)

So before we get to the 'games' themselves... Take a look at the numbers... There are 13 games in the NFL schedule this weekend... That's an ODD number... Depending the AMOUNT of the bets on each week, generally Vegas needs a 7-6 or even 6-7 number to profit (because of the juice they collect)... You're OPPOSITE to that dynamic... 8-5 is going to be a HUGE week for 'either/or' (using that calculus)... Vegas can OFTEN mop up the residuals based on the 'exotic bets' (mis-played teasers & the like)...

I just feel that it's a week to stick close to the house... HERE - I'm going to identify the teams where the public has given huge lopsided support to the favorites (which is a scenario that I usually tend to avoid - but may roll with, due to the dynamics of the other games)...

Packers, Ravens, Saints, Patriots... Same 4 teams from my PRESEASON PICKS... I'm going to go against the Patriots (see below)... But the other three I might support, largely because I think the public will be on the losing end of a large number of other games (vs. the house)...

As stated, the rest are up for grabs IMO... Public 'mindlessly' cajoled... Profits locked... Read on for further minute discrepancies, but beware... This is a week in my 'johnny gut feel' existence that I'd caution more emotional based types to stay far from the teller windows if they lack the capacity to think in long term dynamical aggregates...

Otherwise... Ask an economist who they think will thinks will COVER in the Raiders vs. Browns... None of them probably have ever heard of Carl Cheffers (& vice versa - of course)... Which is an area where ALL THINGS become interesting...

EARLY GAMES

San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions (1:00 EDT)

Line: Lions by 4

So the Lions are 5-0 for the first thing since 1956 (& the Sid Luckman era - or Eisenhower, as the case may be)... Yes indeed, they're a fine looking bunch of men...

"How's it going Eisenhower?"...

I was at a sports bar last week to watch the Bears - Lions game... Not because I was so interested in seeing the Lions play their first home game on Monday Night football in more than a decade, but more because the power went out on my neighborhood block about an hour before kickoff (& I had 1 residual unit riding in a tease bet)... I was getting the Bears +13 in that spot (which they covered - but I would have won even if I'd sided with the Lions)...

The thing that worried me most about that game, ironically, was the officiating... I made THIS COMMENT prior to that game regarding that dynamic...

http://fantasy-sports-nation.blogspot.com/2011/10/fantasy-sports-nation-2011-nfl-picks.html

"Really hate doing this, but I'm going to take the BEARS for (0 units)... (Partly because Clete Blakeman is the ref, so I expect yellow flags galore)..."

That is precisely the reason that Sunday & Monday Night Football games make me nervous... I usually only side with the PUBLIC in those games if Vegas has their profits from the week securely in hand... As it turns out... My prediction was correct (as the Bears were flagged for 'false starts' 9x in the first quarter)... Most people say that it was the Detroit 'crowd noise' that was the culprit, but I've reviewed NFL ref 'Clete Blakeman's' record & he & his crew are truly flag happy... John Gruden was getting annoyed in the ESPN Booth by all the play stoppage...

Anyway, the 'carryover' into this game ought to be that the Lions [crowd], has discovered (at least they THINK) that they can take over a game... Maybe it's a little true, but sometimes you just have to go to "X"'s & "O's"... The Lions have played the Bucs, Chiefs, Vikings, Cowboys, & Bears... In ALL of those games (except the Chiefs), the Lions trailed at some point (most notably vs. the Vikings & Cowboys where they were down by 3 scores in the 2nd half... Even vs. the Chiefs (which was a 48-3 blowout on a day that the Chiefs lost Jamaal Charles, Matt Cassel was playing with an injured foot, & safety Eric Berry had been lost for the season the week before), the Lions mainly ran-up points in the 4th quarter...

The point is, the Lions have thus far had a tendency to start slow (which may or may not be a problem for a 5-0 team, but it bears mentioning)...

If you ask me, the 49ers are more of a surprising story in the NFL this year... Remember, the Lions beat the Tampa Bay Bucs in week 1 by a score of 27-20, but the 49ers hung their own 48-3 score on the same Bucs just last week... Sure, the 49ers were playing at home, but they had just been on the East Coast for the prior two weeks (beating the Eagles & Bengals)... I can't say how 'saucy' the 49ers 4-1 record is... They beat a hapless Seahawks team in week 1 (which has gotten better)... The Bengals are better than expected, then they have wins over the Bucs who aren't too bad, & the Eagles who actually ARE bad... Their only loss came at the hands of the Cowboys (who had to engineeer a miracle comeback of their own with a hobbled Tony Romo)...

Statistically, the 49ers defense is playing well, & Jim Harbaugh seems to be getting the best out of Alex Smith (who is protecting the ball better)... The Lions have been guilty of giving up rushing yardages, so this sets up for a game that might stay close well in to the 2nd half... I'd count on the 49ers to play a little better defense than what the Lions have encountered thus far...

So I'm taking the 49ERS for (2 units) in this spot... (Ironically, the last time the Lions went 5-0 to start the season, they played the 49ers in week 6)...

Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals (1:00 EDT)

Line: Bengals by 7

Last week I made a big to do about Colts owner Robert Irsay... I told the story of him moving the Colts out of Baltimore (in the middle of a snowy February night in a moving van) and on out to Indianapolis...

I told of his history with having been snubbed by John Elway & how I always thought that played on his 'psyche'... So after bad experiments with the Jeff George's of the world, he finally got his team SUCKING enough to get the first pick at the right time to draft Peyton Manning (& the rest is history)...

Well... Low & behold... THIS WEEK, Irsay makes a comment on Yahoo Sports where he basically says "Yes - if we had an opportunity to take Andrew Luck in the draft - we'd do so"...

You've got Peyton Manning who has shown a football disposition that I'm more than sure he'd be willing to help groom someone like Andrew Luck... Sportswriters were all over this story this week making the obvious comparisons to Brett Favre & Aaron Rodgers... But let's face it... Brett Favre is an egomanic who wasn't in to helping Rodgers very much at all... Rodgers learned probably mostly on his own...

Anyway, the point here is more along the lines that I think Bob Irsay is a CREEP... I wouldn't put it past him for one second to effectively have his team "mail in" the rest of the games (after having lost to Kansas City last week) to put him in the running for Andrew Luck...

Think of it this way... The "winless" teams in the NFL are the Dolphins, Rams, & Colts... The 1-4 teams are Jacksonville, Denver, Arizona, Carolina, Minnesota, & Philadelphia...

OK... process of elimination... Philly still thinks they're good & just wasted their money locking Michael Vick for a couple of years (while sending Kevin Kolb to Az)... With idiots like that running a franchize, I doubt they even know who Andrew Luck is...

Carolina drafted Can Newton #1 last year (& I'm sure they're liking what they're seeing - furthermore, I think they'll win some games this year)... Arizona is going to build around Kolb... Minnesota drafted Christian Ponder in the first round & just gave a huge contract to Adrian Peterson so wouldn't have the cash to sign Luck... Plus, they're better than their 1-4 record says, & they'll win some games...

Denver is TRICKY... I'm sure GM John Elway would just LOVE to get Andrew Luck (which is probably why this Tim Tebow thing is getting started so quickly)... I still wouldn't be surprised to see Kyle Orton get dealt to Miami at the end of the season (which would allow Miami to go in another direction &/or change draft positions)... Bottom line is that I don't see Andrew Luck in Miami...

Perthaps another team I'm not mentioning here is Seattle... But they just won their 2nd game (which could conceivably put them out of the running)... Probably 2-14 is going to get you the #1 pick... I have half a mind that Pete Carroll might just wait for Carson Palmer to sit out this year and make him an offer in the off season to come to Seattle...


So you're basically down to Jacksonville, the Rams, & the Colts... Jacksonville drafted Blaine Gabbert last year (who is starting), & the Rams took Sam Bradford with a #1 pick 2 years ago... Anyway, the Rams will win some games (because I still think they fancy their chances in the NFC West, despite being 0-4)... Jacksonville is in the Colts division (so guess what? the Colts DUMP twice)...

The Colts (after Cincy here)... still have to play the Saints (next week) & besides the two games against Jacksonville in the division, play the Tennessee Titans twice (who might have their eye on winning the division) & Houston once more (who are in the same spot)... They also will face a desperate Falcons team, a motivated Panthers team, plus New England & Baltimore (both on the road) who will be gunning for #1 & #2 seeds in the AFC (which were my PRE-SEASON predictions)...

So look... You heard it here first... I'm awful convinced that it's going to come down to Irsay vs. John Elway again... But perhaps this time the roles are reversed... IOW - Irsay gets retribution over John Elway by the Colts sneaking in just under the Broncos in the win column... & Irsay denies Elway of getting his fellow 'Stanford' guy Andrew Luck...

Paybacks a bitch...

I imagine that the team will "get the memo" (maybe they already have as early as this week)... The Bengals probably still think they have a shot at something & they're not that bad on defense or running the football (areas which match up well vs. the Colts)...

It's a lot of points, but...

I'm going to go with the BENGALS here for (1 unit)...

LATE GAMES

Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders  (4:05 EDT)

Line: Raiders by 6.5

RIP Al Davis... The Raiders won out of the division finally, but might be in a bad spot here... Last weeks road win in Houston was, of course, emotional (because of the death of Al Davis the day before)...

What's compounding that is the fact that the game went down the final play, & that the Raiders were playing the role of underdogs...

I hate them reversing that dynamic & having to lay almost a touchdown to a Browns team coming off a BYE week & has time to gameplan... The Browns have made a few changes in their starting line-up as Greg Little is replacing Brian Robiskie as the "X" (sometimes referred to as 'slot' receiver)... The move was unexplained, but perhaps it largely has to do with the fact that a number of 'rookies' this year in the NFL have stepped up and are making contributions (Cam Newton, Julio Jones, AJ Green, & even Titus Young come to mind)... Anyway, the Browns are basically weak in the wideout areas so Fritz Shurmer might want to give Colt McCoy some more options... It's interesting that David Nelson (BILLS), Kevin Walter (HOU), & Wes Welker (NE) all had TD catches vs. the Raiders (& otherwise 'high targets')... Of course, it's like that every week for Welker, but he was especially utilized vs. the Raiders... The Raiders also played the Broncos & Jets... Brandon Lloyd played the same "X" receiver in that game, & as for the Jets, while they typically don't play that kind of set, they did for that game by putting Ladainian Tomlinson out in the slot on a lot of plays (& he came up huge - albeit in a loss)...

Perhaps all of these coaches have found a weakness to exploit in the Raider defense (who are without Nnamdi Asomugha this year - you know - he's playing for that 'Dream Team')...

Peyton Hillis ought to be back at 100% for the Browns in this game & perhaps this is a chance to (at least for one game), overturn the MADDEN CURSE on the field that Madden used to coach...

Carl Cheffers is the ref here... I've often done well taking 'dogs' when he's roaming around looking for calls to make/miss... Plus, I'm probably 'jinxing' myself by saying this, but I haven't whiffed on the Raiders so far this year (as I had them covering vs. both the Jets & Texans while having them not cover vs. the Pats & Bills)...
I'm going with the BROWNS as a (5 unit) play here...

Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots (4:15 EDT)

Line: Patriots by 7

The Cowboys are coming off a BYE week and should regain the services of Miles Austin & Dez Bryant... I gotta say that I think the Cowboys have impressed me (in a way) thus far this season with gutty performances... They have not played the easiest of schedules (Jets, 49ers, Redskins, Lions)... They're 2-2 (but could easily be 4-0)... Likewise, they could easily be 0-4... That's why it's important to look at the quality of competitiveness and not just the W-L records when you look at teams...

The Cowboys are ranked #1 in the NFL in rushing defense (did you know that)?... They're also ranked a respectable #14 vs. the pass (& it's not like they've faced slouches - being that the Lions can ruin your pass defense stats in just one game)... I hears a stupid stat on ESPN this week implying that the Cowboys are weak on defense in the 2nd half because they have given up an average of 17 2nd half points to opponents...

First of all, they've only played 4 games (vs. 5 for most teams), so it's a small sample size... More important though is that it was Tony Romo who was directly responsible for 28 of those points (as they came off of 2 pick sixes vs. the Lions, 1 vs. the Jets, & another 'short field' off a pick vs. the Jets)... Look at #9, don't look at the defense...

Anyway, they're still banged up in their defensive secondary (of which, most are aware, which is why, I suppose, the public doesn't mind getting behind Tom Brady & the Patriots in this spot)...

However, I go back to one particular instance last year... The Patriots lost 2 games in the regular season... One was to the 'Rex Ryan' Jets... & the other was to the Cleveland Browns (who had Rex's brother 'Rob Ryan' as defensive coordinator at the time)... Rob Ryan is... you guessed it... Now the defensive coordinator of the Cowboys...

One of the things that Rob Ryan did to confuse Brady last year (where they fell to the Browns), was to employ a 'walk-up' style of defense (something that 'Rex Ryan' started while he was defensive coordinator for the Ravens before he got the Jets head coaching job)... The Ravens almost beat the Patriots on a Monday Night game in that season when the Patriots went undefeated... The Ravens were ALSO the only team to win a playoff game in Foxboro Stadium until Rex Ryan's Jets did the same last year)... I can't see how anybody can just dismiss those realities without giving them consideration...

Basically, he ('they' - Rex & brother Rob)... had most of the front 8 of linebackers & defensive line just walking around on defense while Brady was getting the offense to come to the line & trying to make the reads... It worked pretty well... It's further interesting that the Cowboys are coming off a BYE week here (& therefore may have had some time to get some more reps out of different blitz maneuvers)... I'm pretty sure that Brady & Belchick have studied a lot of tape from the same game & maybe have an answer for what might be coming (or do some adjustments at halftime)...

In any case, I think this is going to set up for a real interesting game of 'cat & mouse'... The Patriots have scored 30 or more points now in 14 straight NFL games (which ties an NFL record)... It's not likely that they're going to miss a chance to surpass that mark (which means that the Cowboys are going to have to do something on offense... With Miles Austin & Dez Bryant back in the line-up (& with the Patriots ranked dead last in the NFL vs. the pass), I'm pretty sure they'll be able to keep up (vis a vis - Phil Rivers)...

I make the comparison (Rivers - Romo) because of the following (a point I'd made earlier in the year)... A team with a top 6 QB, you ought to take as 7 point dogs on any occasion)... That 'system' backfired for me earlier this year when I took the Chargers (here in Foxboro) against the Pats & the Pats covered... However, that "cover" was mainly due to a bogus TD by the Pats at the end of the game when they should have been just running out the clock... I sort of don't blame Belchick for 'going for it' there (as the Chargers are an AFC team - & playoff seedings can be decided by tiebreakers at the end of the year)... Both the Pats & Chargers are 4-1 as we speak... The Cowboys ARE NOT an AFC team... I'm not saying the same might or might not occur... Just saying...

The REAL factor is whether one thinks Tony Romo is a TOP 6 QB or not... I've personally made the case that he IS NOT... But hold on... The Cowboys rank #3 in offensive passing yards this year (& in this game, they'll have full weaponry with Austin & Bryant)... I basically think that those two COVER UP for Romo (which inches him closer to a TOP 6) consideration... Furthermore, this combo is going against the worst ranked passing defense in the NFL...

Bottom line... I TOOK the dynamic with the Chargers earlier this year (& got unjustly shaved on it)... So I'll wheel it out once more before abandoning it...

I'll take the COWBOYS for (3 units)...

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SATURDAY UPDATE: I'm going to add something here... I didn't put any NCAA picks up, but I'm going to try a (1 unit) 'money line'* parlay on the following:

*'Money Line' = a Straight Up wager

The following is available on BODOG...

Texas A&M 1.33

Pitt 1.43

Navy 2.55

OK State 1.34

Fresno St. 2.30

Iowa 1.42

$100 (1 unit) = $2023.82