Morning Corner 10.13.11

AUDJPY (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
low= 0.7376
rev= 0.7913; mid= 0.7645

Is this cross suggesting that risk is back on? Or is this the best head fake possible? AUDJPY is back above its weekly 3LB mid, SMA(144) and SMA(233). I guess the rumors have convinced traders that the EU is safe. Rumors

EURCHF (weekly info)
new high 1.2382
high= 1.2382
rev= 1.1292; mid= 1.1837

The SNB isn't giving up the fight just yet. The cross has moved far enough above 1.20 to ease their concerns (for now). It's testing its SMA(55), monthly 3LB reversal and 38.2% retrace this week.


AmenRa said...


90 days ago 1.19
60 days ago 1.23
30 days ago 1.21
7 days ago 0.96
current 0.93

Actual 1.02
1 year ago 1.01

So they made $0.01 in a year.

AmenRa said...

re: JPM

The issue at hand is the "Fair Value Option", which under US GAAP essentially allows the booking of a pre-tax profit when a bank's debt trades lower in the open market. This benefits banks that opt-in for FVO instead of other accounting approaches such as amortized cost, or historic cost.

aka they used DVA & loan loss reserves to boost EPS.

AmenRa said...

forgot the link:

AmenRa said...

Another link on the subject:

Anonymous said...


"Yes, Virginia, 'Synthetic Longs', do have their Limits.."


Anonymous said...

more 'Smoke 'n Mirrors' ...

"...The prosecution has placed Rajaratnam's profits from illegal trades between $70 million and $75 million, saying he moved so much money around within his multibillion dollar funds that the movement of price in individual stocks could be traced to his trading whims.

Lawyers for the Sri Lanka native argue that his sentence should be much lower _ 6 1/2 to 9 years _ for what they say was illegal profits of about $7 million, when the trades at his Galleon Group of hedge funds are disregarded.

The defense also has asked for leniency partly based on Rajaratnam's "failing health" and his "unique constellation of ailments." They say a lengthy prison term will amount to a death sentence.

The sentencing culminates a series of convictions and sentencings that followed the October 2009 announcement of the arrest of Rajaratnam in what prosecutors labeled the biggest hedge fund insider trading case in U.S. history.

In all, more than two dozen people were arrested. All were convicted, with the sentences ranging from a few months to 10 years. Since the first arrests, U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara has widened the probe. A year ago, he said insider trading is "rampant and may even be on the rise."

Using information gleaned from the many cooperators in the Rajaratnam case, prosecutors have focused lately on consultants who are paid to arrange conversations between employees of public companies and hedge fund managers. Too often, prosecutors say, they have found a nest for insider trading rather than for the discussion of legitimate research.

In their presentence submissions, prosecutors say Rajaratnam lacks remorse, even after a trial that featured the playing of dozens of taped conversations in which Rajaratnam was heard discussing financial news events that were not yet publically known.

"Rajaratnam has neither acknowledged responsibility for his crimes nor remained silent. Instead, Rajaratnam's post-conviction statements show that he remains defiant that he never committed insider trading and, incredibly, he maintains that the line between legal and illegal conduct was not always clear to him," prosecutors wrote..."


Andy T said...

You guys may have missed this comment from the Ritz:

"To avoid suffering from excess selective perception, I try to hunt out people who have differing views from my own. It is a challenge to find someone who 1) has a methodology that is defendable; 2) reaches a different conclusion than I do; 3) Has a respectable track record and so 4) cannot be dismissed outright"

So, if anyone here feels "up to the challenge" of meeting these requirements, please send your comments to Ritholtz--he "might" listen to you.

Andy T said...

I haven't been able to get to it but the DXY sure is sporting elements of a five wave move higher from the least that's what it looks like to me.

Sort of bullish implications. If that's true, then this a dip that should be bought.

Mel said...

Andy (12:18)

Apparently, Kass and Altucher seem to meet the requirements.

The latter now seems fully engaged in some post-post modern game of personal branding called "honesty"... composed of passive-aggressive, schizophrenia loaded name dropping - coupled with various personal blow-ups...interlaced with a lot of shit -stained shorts hung out on the line for the passing laundry sniffers. Result? Applause Applause Applause

But wait...there's more...a book! "I was blind, but now I see"... I suspect most of which can be gleaned from A Key to Finnegans Wake...published long before "follow your bliss" became commodified.

What I can See is Cramer somewhere in the background; "If you don't blow your horn, no one else will." And Barnum, getting no rest -continually rolling over (with laughter) in his grave.

Don't get me wrong...I'm all for the quote of the day. Its always worked for me...but give me a break with the "honesty" already. There's a limit.

And there's my nickel for the day.

Andy T said...


That's hilarious.

ben22 said...

damn AT,

thanks for that comment because I've been looking at DX for weeks now and have continued to come back and view it like a's probably one of the better examples of a five I've seen in

well, a couple years...

I had gotten quite a few clients long DX again recently but not in a huge way

ben22 said...

I read the TBP twitter thread yesterday from the conference

I laughed really hard at one comment which was Jeff Hirsch who said something like

"80 people, and my hand was only one of 3 raised when they asked who was bullish, the power of contrary thinking"

I thought, well I could certainly guess one of the other 2....altucher, duh

I also greatly enjoy the repeating that doug kass thinks TA is "voodoo"

coming from someone that has been made an absolute fool for spouting off about p/e's on banks (and any other sector for that matter) many times during 2008 me thinks somebody might have a slight bit of denial....if TA is voodoo, and all TA is, is the study of the market itself, well then what the hell is fundamental analysis where you forecast things like earnings and then second step to forecast what the market does as a result of earnings

in the next breath he'll talk about the business cycle, which is funny considering it's the backbone of a lot of TA....which he just called voodoo.

ben22 said...



buddy, are you saying you are not a full-time Truth Seeker?

well, not all of us can be gods among men right?

ben22 said...

James Altucher seems like that kid in high school that would be all curled up in the corner of the locker room getting nailed with wet towels

at least thats what I thought of when I saw him crying about how Nouriel never invites him to any cool parties

I greatly enjoy pundits like him, they sell books to people with such sage advice as

"just don't trade because you'll suck at it, I mean, I'm good at it, but you won't be"

Leftback said...

AUDJPY and EURJPY are the crosses to watch.

Dollar carry is dead, for now, until QE3, so AUDJPY is probably a very very good risk proxy, and somewhat less insanely bipolar than EURJPY.

Not sure if anyone agrees but I see Bucky standing firm. I mean, EURUSD cannot possibly drive to 1.40 and beyond. Not possible...?

ben22 said...

"Not sure if anyone agrees but I see Bucky standing firm."

5 waves up for non wavers might be translated as

it's going's good, it's strong


Anonymous said...


if there was, any, *Justice in that 'Locker Room', it wouldn't be Wet Towels..more like, Socks, each, with a Bar of Soap, or two..

IOW, "Dude" is a , Total, D**che.


Anonymous said...

ye olde "Paperback" had been Strong..

was 'surprised' to see it N. of 80, again..

should Hold the ~76 (?)

the "Mayo", certainly, is Soft..

also, here..

I'm thinkin' the 'Aussie'/'Ozzie' is going, back, sub-Par..EeZe-ily...


AmenRa said...

MIA 2day. Corner will be up soon.

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