Creditcane™: Trick or treat dammit.
SPXBearish long day (evening star completed). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(144). Failing the 61.8% minor retrace (1286.32). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1238.25). QE2infinity. Back below daily 3LB mid.
DXYBullish long day (confirmed bullish harami). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held the 38.2% retrace (75.83). Tested and held SMA(55). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 76.62). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal up.
VIXBullish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Held SMA(144). Held its 61.8% retrace (26.16). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 48.00). Still running from the "fear" zone.
GOLDBearish short day (confirmed bearish harami). Midpoint above EMA(10). Held its 38.2% retrace (1714.40). Tested and failed SMA(55). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1757.30). Still above daily 3LB mid. Must have the precious.
EURUSDBearish long day (confirmed bearish harami). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(55). Tested and failed its 61.8% retrace (1.3903). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3779).
JNKBearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Failing SMA(144). Tested and held its 61.8% retrace (38.86). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.74).
10YR YIELDBearish long day (confirmed bearish harami). Failing SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (22.11). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 21.28).
WTIHanging man day (which confirmed hanging man). Held above SMA(89). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace (92.96). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 88.53). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal down.
SILVERBearish long day (evening star completed). Tested and failed SMA(233). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed its 61.8% retrace (35.25). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 36.58).
BKXBearish long day (confirmed bearish harami). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(89). Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace (41.37). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 36.51).
HYG/LQDSpinning top day. Tested and failed SMA(89). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace (0.7808). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7730).
USDJPYBullish long day (m&*&f*&* intervention). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(89). Tested and held its 50.0% minor retrace (77.785). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 75.70). BOJ & MoF finally showed up.
COPPERBearish long day (evening star completed). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(55). Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace (3.673). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 3.449).
EEMBearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Now failing SMA(89). Now failing its 50.0% retrace (41.81). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.16).
IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.
11 comments:
Today was a rare day in that reversal patterns were actually confirmed. Can't say that about three day patterns until tomorrows close.
Just a couple of articles that crossed my terminal late this afternoon:
First up is a perfect example of a failed economic theory that is widely accepted among academic circles and promulgated by central banks and governments--the wealth effect. It is a flawed policy that puts the cart before the horse--it is accepted as fact that if you make people feel wealthy, they will create economic activity ("wealth creates economy" instead of "economy creates wealth"). This is typically manifested in monetary, fiscal, and social policy that targets high asset prices. Here is a case of a central bank losing a bunch of money trying to goose risk assets:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-31/boj-losses-exceed-281m-from-buying-etfs.html
The second article, for your amusement, is about the generational warfare. It's the "Fuck you, I got mine" attitude of the baby boomers as the grasp and claw for social benefits and saddle the youth with the obligation of the IOUs they issue to pay for the benefits (who are currently and will, in the future, be denied the same benefits). Baby boomers left the restaurant with a full tummy and left an iou with someone else's name on it. Fuck you, I got mine.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-31/-generational-war-seen-as-u-s-debt-panel-may-target-children-s-programs.html
I don't feel like looking it up again, but it has been reported that the Greek bailout will be put to a referendum. It's hard for me to believe that those snakes in the Greek parliament won't find a way to bypass the referendum so they can force a bailout on a population that won't have it.
I welcome the nuclear option, as the Greek people are shit out of luck no matter how it goes down, so they might as well remind the market that risk premiums are earned on risk assets because there is risk of losing money. Risk. Risk Risk. Now that we said the dirty word, let's learn how to price it more effectively.
(AP:FREMONT, Calif.) The bankrupt solar company Solyndra Inc. is auctioning off surplus assets this week as part of its bankruptcy proceedings.
Starting Wednesday buyers can purchase the former solar manufacturer's office microwave, artwork that once hung on its walls and an array of heavy equipment and tools owned by the former solar panel maker. The auction ends Thursday at 5 p.m.
The auction company Heritage Global Partners is calling the event the "solar auction of the year." Because the company is still up for sale, its facilities and major manufacturing equipment will not be auctioned.
Solyndra, which received a $528 billion federal loan guarantee and was touted by President Barack Obama as an example of his emphasis on so-called "green jobs," filed for bankruptcy in September and laid off 1,000 workers.
http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=68981787408280
two things..
1. isn't that Million, not Billion?
and, 2. I, always, find it amazing to see that BK Corp.s have 'Assets', like, 'Art Collections'..
ibid.
Matthew
Interesting developments coming out of Greece this evening, as Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou has called a referendum on the latest Greek bailout and austerity package. Speaking to the Greek parliament he said:
“The command of the Greek people will bind us. Do they want to adopt the new deal, or reject it? If the Greek people do not want it, it will not be adopted…We trust citizens, we believe in their judgment, we believe in their decision."
from http://openeuropeblog.blogspot.com/2011/10/democracy-is-coming-home.html
Matthew,
nice pieces..
esp. "...I welcome the nuclear option, as the Greek people are shit out of luck no matter how it goes down, so they might as well remind the market that risk premiums are earned on risk assets because there is risk of losing money. Risk. Risk Risk. Now that we said the dirty word, let's learn how to price it more effectively..."
as is, often, in Chess, even in a '(Queen) Swap', the initiator has the advantage..
here, The Greek people are, far, better off taking the 'Losses'..
in the Process, they may, even, get rid of their, current 'Leadership', "Quisling"(s)..
By the way, I wanted to say something about MF Global this evening. I have been in a somber mood all day, as I received a few of those phone calls from proud traders who were suddenly jobless, through now fault of their own. They don't come out and ask, but they relay personal phone numbers, which is Street speak for, "If you have any openings, please remember me."
When I have the time, I come here and share what I can about markets (as much as a 28-year-old fixed income neophyte can offer). But I just want to vent a personal sorrow about the brink to which we have been brought. I have been out of university for 5 years now and I feel like I have experienced a lifetime of workplace valedictions.
I am so sad to have seen this. I have never seen a workplace where employees are respected and feel secure about their future.
People around me have been discarded as collateral damage in the numerous financials storms that are largely the product of wealthy gamblers in positions of priviledge playing with other people's money (enabled by the moral hazards created in Washington).
I have been fortunate enough to land in strong positions so far in life (blind luck?) and I have never been on the receiving end of employment misfortune; however, I am terrified of the future. I see nothing but volatility in all facets of life and that terror is driving me to hunker down and hoard in order to secure my future. Game theory says that rational people will do the same, collectively, to the detriment of society as a whole.
The problems I am talking about are tractable and we can solve them relatively easily if we face them with political and societal courage. The corruption; the entitlements culture; the bailouts; all of these must end
http://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecchia/2011/10/31/mf-global-the-fall-of-corzine-the-volcker-rule-and-too-big-to-fail/
MF Global was levered 80:1. Whoa!
Ok. This is getting interesting.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/someone-going-jail-mf-global-caught-stealing-hundreds-millions-customers
MF Global Caught Stealing Hundreds Of Millions From Customers
and
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/10/31/regulators-investigating-mf-global/?hp
Regulators Investigating MF Global for Missing Money
Matthew
Thanks for sharing.
In re MFGlobal....
Yeah, similar sentiments here. It was the first time I've been able to witness, firsthand, how a financial company dies. We had a few major, major companies call us on Wednesday and thursday and say: "please make sure to book all new deals through our new clearing firm."
I looked at the stock trading around 1.50.....
It was clearly becoming a zero.
Why does Bloomberg & CNBC Asia wait to broadcast Asian Markets at 1:00 AM ET? Is it that they don't want us to know what is going on over there?
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