XLY (weekly info)
new low 34.25
trend=down
low= 34.25
rev= 39.65; mid= 36.95
XLY (consumer discretionary) is struggling to hold SMA(89). It's already below its monthly 3LB reversal price. It's converging on its 38.2% retrace. It appears that consumers are buying the necessities.
XLP (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=down
low= 29.54
rev= 32.11; mid= 30.83
Maybe I was wrong as consumers don't appear to be buying the staples either. It's testing and holding SMA(55) and its monthly 3LB reversal price.
43 comments:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Troubled-Spain-amends-apf-1537994339.html?x=0&.v=2
Yep, now Spain is joining the BBA club...
Next Recession???
What ever happened to that 'American Recovery & Re-Investment Act' thingy...
You know... That magic plan by Obama to 'create &/or save 4,000,000 jobs'???
http://finance.yahoo.com/career-work/article/113379/next-recession-will-be-different-mainst
I shouldn't be so cynical...
Jobs WERE saved...
Gitmo is still up & running at full speed... Jobs saved there...
Plus, the 'service staff' on Martha's Vineyard, dog grooming, & golf cart maintenance industries have shown no signs of slowing down...
England GDP .2%...wonder what our number will be?
Real GDP 1.0%. I can almost guarantee some number crunching was done to keep it from going under 1.0%.
CV -- Gitmo jobs. Made me choke on my breakfast :-)
AR -- like the same number crunching done to claim that that S&P made a $2 trillion error?
Jennifer
Treasury was angry that S&P didn't use their rosy projections in their decision.
Geezo CNBC...acting like there's never been a Hurricane/Tropical storm before.
USDJPY back down to the danger zone.
@AAIP/MEH
You wrote about this phenomenon yesterday:
~~~~~~~~~~
"US Government Asset Seizures On The Rise
The Wall Street Journal published a disturbing article earlier this week entitled “Federal Asset Seizures Rise, Netting Innocent With Guilty.”
You can already imagine the crux of the article.
In the United States, there are hundreds of regulations which authorize dozens federal agencies to confiscate private property– homes, cars, bank accounts, gold, company shares, and even personal effects.
Ironically, most Americans still think that they live in a country where you’re innocent until proven guilty. Nothing could be further from the truth, and it’s just another clear example of how the US Constitution has become a worthless piece of toilet paper for the federal government.
The Fifth Amendment states that “No person shall be… deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law.” Tell that James Lieto, a New York businessman who was relieved of $392,000 when the armored car company used by his check-cashing firm was taken down by the FBI.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Let me just add on some other thoughts...
I've been a firsthand witness to the power and scope of the USG/DOJ. I've been in rooms with Federal Prosecutors and FBI Agents.
I can tell you for certainty that we no longer have a "jury system" in the United States. The Judge and Jury is now mostly the "prosecutors."
They can gain easy "convictions" whenever they'd like....by simply offering plea deals that people can't really turn down, whether they're guilty or innocent.
It's very easy for the DOJ to slap a "wire fraud" charge on to most crimes...that's a MANDATORY 20 year sentence. Due to the way Congress pressed for MANDATORY minimum sentences, these judges have very little flexibility in sentencing. Which means... A LOT of power in the hands of prosecutors.
Scary times indeed.
if you see something
say something
well.. s&P futures...if they're carving out a triangle should go to 1128 as 61.8% of previous leg.
Quick read of Bernanke's speech. Didn't see any mention of QE3 or LSAP. Basically a repeat of the last FOMC statement.
woo hoo, this is friggen awesome price action
@Amen
I suppose you'll do a wrap at the end of the day...
But I've compiled my 'definitive' 2011 - NFL Season picks (& picks to go to Super Bowl) & have that thread ready to launch tomorrow morning...
I published one last month... But that was only the PRE-PRE SEASON version...
This one is set in stone...
CV
AT,
I'm just curious
who went 1-4 in your draft last night?
@Ra,
question for you
yesterday's $spx candle you described as a bearish short day
SPY's candle looks like dark cloud cover to me
I'm just curious if when they are different like this if you have some method of confirmation or process you use to lean toward one or the other
thanks
I know many of you don't give a FF about football (which is 'your' loss)... But even the interested football fans on this blog, (like Andy & Ben - who actively participate in fantasy leagues [& probably lay a few bones on games here & there too] probably wonder why I make a deal about pre-season games...
I'm going to finish out WEEK 3 of the preseason (with this weekends games - including two on tap for tonight)... Week 4 of the pre-season, almost ALL first stringers sit... It's the only truly 'unbettable' week (as most all teams want to give the 1st stringers a week of rest, & also need to whittle down the final roster cuts to get them to the limit)...
I like the pre-season for several reasons:
- it 'sharpens' my FANTASY drafting egde (in a big way)
- it gets me back FOCUSED on 'bankroll management' (managing a wagering bankroll is as important as picking winners [or controlling damages on losers - which is certain to happen])
- it familiarizes you with new 'philosophies' (as there are many personnel changes every year in Pro football)
This is the time to learn what's the same, & what's different...
So here we go...(quick recap)
---
CV's 2011 NFL Preseason Picks
2011 YTD Picks record (pre-season): 9-3
2011 (unit pick) total: (+2.5) units
--- Thursday 8/25 games ---
I had no 'action' on last nights games - though I published some comments
--- Friday 8/26 games ---
Green Bay (-9.5) at Indianapolis
Normally - I'd never give 9 points away to anyone (especially on the road) to any team NOT named the "East Egg junior varsity football & yacht sailing club"... But I gotta say... The Colts are not only a "seldom interested" pre-season squad, but now they have Kerry Collins in camp (who may be the starting QB in week 1)... You even have Reggie Wayne bitching about that, plus Dallas Clark, in interviews, begging the media to "talk about the weather" or ANYTHING else (BTW... "weather"??? hurricane forecast for the entire Mid-Atlantic)... Are you happy Dallas? (from Indy)...
Green Bay pretty much 'torched' the Colts last year in the pre-season (WITH Peyton Manning)... That game (as mentioned above) was the 'thing' that led CV to 'reach' for Aaron Rodgers in the first round in ALL my fantasy drafts (a move which I was HIGHLY ridiculed for)... Result... Ummm... Aaron Rodgers dumps 4 td passes on Peyton Manning's brother 'Eli' in week 16 (which basically, singlehandedly WON me 2 of the three $$ leagues I was in)...
I'll give the points here for (2 units)... (you ride her until she bucks you - or you don't ride at all)...
St. Louis at Kansas City (pick-em)
OK... I'll 'pick-em'... I'll pick the Rams... & watch as Todd Haley sits there & "picks" out an excuse as to why the Chiefs go 6-10 this year & fail to make the playoffs without Charlie Weis calling plays...
Rams for (1 unit)
ben22
SPY mimics the SPX. The same differences are seen in the Nasdaq & QQQ. Since there is usually more volume in the derivatives (SPY, QQQ) then I'd give them preference.
SPY was a dark cloud cover.
The market is rallying even though BB said "no help for you". So how does this work? No QE - market rallies. QE3 - market rallies. F&*k QE - market rallies.
Obama says Hurricane Irene "extremely dangerous"
http://news.yahoo.com/obama-says-hurricane-irene-extremely-dangerous-153952364.html
---
Add "Nobel Prize winning Laureate WEATHERMAN IN CHIEF" to his never ending list of accomplishments...
& he manages to do it all whilst vacationing!!!
Amazing!!!
@Amen
The market is rallying even though BB said "no help for you". So how does this work? No QE - market rallies. QE3 - market rallies. F&*k QE - market rallies
---
Well maybe while Obama was being "weatherman in chief", he also found time to remind everyone that...
"Profit to Earnings" aspects look good...
but I'll wait to get the whole story on that from Ritholtz...
...after all - he's the 'expert'
whoa, just got burned on my BAC puts! :(
might need to do my POMP method... pile on more puts!
@Amen
The market is rallying even though BB said "no help for you". So how does this work? No QE - market rallies. QE3 - market rallies. F&*k QE - market rallies
1. It's different this time
2. We're better off than them across the pond
3. QE3 is secretly being implemented
4. US is still in the drug business so they have money to burn
5. everything can look better when you round the numbers up, or down as needed, then adjust and revise multiple times
6. [insert your reason here]
LOL... WEATHERMAN IN CHIEF
@Q's
"everything can look better when you..."
---
Reminds me of once when I heard somebody talking about how 'Belgian' women were the most beautiful in the world...
Then you go about 'factoring in' the high percentage of alcohol in a typical Belgian beer...
an well...
somehow it all makes sense... :-)
Ben22/cv: in our live PPR 14 team draft, (QBs get 6pts for TDs),
The first round went like this:
1.Arian Foster (Hou - RB)
2.Adrian Peterson (Min - RB)
3.Ray Rice (Bal - RB)
4.LeSean McCoy (Phi - RB)
5.Jamaal Charles (KC - RB)
6.Darren McFadden (Oak - RB)
7.Aaron Rodgers (GB - QB)
8.Andre Johnson (Hou - WR)
9.Drew Brees (NO - QB)
10. Tom Brady (NE - QB)
11. Roddy White (Atl - WR)
12. Rashard Mendenhall (Pit - RB)
13. Chris Johnson (Ten - RB)
14. Calvin Johnson (Det - WR)
I picked 9th and took Brees. Got G.Jennings in the next round.
AT,
re: 'Prosecutors'+ 'Mandatory Minimums'..
yes, too True..
up here, We just had a former State Sen. sentenced, ~55 Months in Club Fed..
the dude, Fumo, was so Corrupt that the 'Newspapers', if they deigned to 'Cover his Exploits', would have Copy 'til the End of the Decade (after his Sentence ran out..)
it's the 'flip-side' of what you were mentioning, though, an example of the type of 'Justice' the System has devolved to..
"Former State Senator Vincent Fumo was sentenced to 55 months in a minimum-security federal prison after he was convicted in March 2009 of 137 charges of fraud ..."
2 and 1/2 years 'Vakay', before the Trip to Club Fed..
"The long-time secretary of disgraced Pennsylvania state senator, Vince Fumo, Susan Skotnicki was sentenced today in federal court by the Honorable Anita Brody..."
Senrenced to 'Probation'...
these dude, and his henchman/enablers were running a RICO-style 'racket'...
http://search.yippy.com/search?query=Fumo+sentenced&tb=sitesearch-all&v%3Aproject=clusty
AAIP
Thanks AT...interesting, that looks pretty close to the two mock d's I've done so far
I'll do a few more this weekend unless we dont' have any power, in which case maybe I'll just show up at CV's place and hang out.
Odds of a bank holiday in Greece on Monday?
a) 100:1
b) 10:1
c) 1:1
d) Why wait until Monday?
@ben
You'd have to go to WVA...
That's where the panels & generators are...
Md is not equipped - I'm hittin the road now...
Not because of the hurricane... My USUAL routine...
AR, figured out why market is up today, J6P can't vacation on the east coast this weekend so with all the extra money they have... they're buying stocks.
QQQQ
Initial Claims WTE
GDP revision WTE
Greece activating ELA
BAC needed help from the Godfather Buffet
Chicago Fed NAI below trend
Richmond Fed WTE
New Home Sales WTE
No QE gifts from Jackson Hole
and yet the market rallies.
Pffttt. BS.
@Andy
pretty 'classic' getting the 9th pick (a good spot - when all is said & done in a 14 'teamer') & taking #9 Brees...
So the question is... Whod'ya take at #20...
Don't ANSWER (CV's 'multiple choice') is coming in 8...5...3...2... (I'm serious)...
I'm SERIOUS... don't answer until I post my 'guesses'...
Oh wait...
I see you took 'Jennings' there (would have been on CV's 'short' list of picks... Unless, of course...
LAUVERNEUS COLES was available...
I'm gonna take a stab at #3 here...
...with the #37 pick... Andy T takes... (don't answer)...
I'm gonna do this by elimination... (who's available at #37)???
- We leave off at GREG JENNINGS #20 (Andy T)...
- which means Andy is either drafting a RB - or 'best available' on the next pick...
- Inside #45 means the 'following' are still on the board after #20 (or really - after #15 as the case may be)...
11. Roddy White (Atl - WR)
12. Rashard Mendenhall (Pit - RB)
13. Chris Johnson (Ten - RB)
14. Calvin Johnson (Det - WR)
- Matt Forte
- Steven Jackson
- Felix Jones
- Frank Gore
- Hakeem Nicks
- MJD
- LaGarrette Blount
- Larry Fitzgerald
- Mike Wallace
- Antonio Gates
- Shonn Greene
- Mike Vick
- Peyton Hillis
- Vincent Jackson
- Ahmad Bradshaw
- Jahvid Best
- Mike Williams
- Miles Austin
- Michael Turner
- Brandon Lloyd
- Phil Rivers
- DeAngelo Williams
- Reggie Wayne
- Steve Johnson
- Dez Bryant
- Mario Manningham
- Tony Romo
- DeSean Jackson
- Dwayne Bowe
--- follow me on this ----
No corner today. Have to make a run.
- #1-6 have a RB (and now are 'desperate' for a QB & Rodgers, Brees, & Brady are off the board)...
- Therefore... Rivers, Vick, & Romo go off the board (maybe Romo too - you being in TEXAS)...
- Those same guys pick BEFORE you do again, so if they go with a QB, their 'next' pick (unless they totally LOVE RB's is gonna be a WR)... Which takes Nicks, Fitzgerald, Austin, Wallace, V. Jackson, & I'd say Brandon Lloyd off the board...
- That's 10 picks (out of the #17 that would wheel back to you)...
- Out of the remaining 7
- I doubt Forte, Jackson, Gore, MJD, Peyton Hillis, or Ahmad Bradshaw, or Michael Turner would last that long...
- So that leaves YOU... with...
- Antonio Gates
- Felix Jones
- Shonn Greene
- Jahvid Best
- Mike Williams
- DeAngelo Williams
- Reggie Wayne
- Stevie Johnson
- Dez Bryant
- Manningham
- De Sean Jackson
- Dwayne Bowe
as Andy T's prabable choices (Andy 'leaning' towards a RB)... Which means Jones, Greene, Best, & DeAngelo Williams as prospects...
WR wise... He might 'covet' Steve Johnson, Mario Manningham, Dez Bryant, & DeSean Jackson here...
But he also covets 'pocket passers' (Jackson might get tossed & certainly he doesn't TRUST the arms of Ryan Fitzpatrick & Eli Manning vs. those of Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers - which keeps Dez Bryant in play)...
None of the RBs matter in a PPR format (which the league is NOT)... So that's a tossup...
Therefore, I'm inclined to believe that Andy's order of choiuce would be:
1. Felix Jones
2. DeAngelo Williams
3. Jahvid Best
4. Dez Bryant
5. Shonn Green
I doubt Andy T would go for Antonio Gates here (for the 'injury' risk),... same with Reggie Wayne (factored because of Peyton Manning)...
I'll take a wild guess & say that Felix Jones was on the board (& Andy took him)...
Tejas boy and all...
---
Oh - & if AMEN RA is not going to post a WRAP for this weekend...
I'm going to launch CV's 2011 NFL PICKS SPECIAL early...
like... at 4:00 after the markets close...
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