A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.
"Let's get ready to rumble!!!"
Creditcane™: Start counting the seconds after hearing the thunder to know when I'll arrive.
SPX
Gravestone doji day (reversal coming? probably not). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. Tested and held the 38.2% minor retrace (1122.84). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1254.05). QE2infinity. Still below daily, weekly & monthly 3LB mids.
DXY
Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (73.51). Failing the 38.2% minor retrace (74.40). Still below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 75.75).
VIX
Bullish long day (yet confirmed hanging man - head fake?). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Failing its 0.0% retrace (45.40). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 25.25). Can't escape the "extreme fear" zone.
GOLD
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its new 0.0% retrace (1881.40). Still above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1793.80). Must have the precious.
EURCHF
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 61.8%% retrace (1.1078). Holding SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.1266). The last six days don't look that bullish.
JNK
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace (38.07). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.59).
10YR YIELD
Bearish short day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing its 0.0% retrace (20.92). Still below the upper trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 21.82).
WTI
Bullish long day (completed morning star). Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (80.32). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 92.08).
SILVER
Bullish short day. Trading above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 38.2% retrace (40.69). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 37.89).
BKX
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (36.25). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 36.99).
HYG/LQD
Bearish short day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of its 0.0% retrace (0.7427). Tested and failed its 38.2% minor retrace (0.7585). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7910).
USDJPY
Spinning top day (didn't confirm hammer). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (76.561). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 77.03).
GS
Bearish long day. Below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (110.04). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 125.18).
IT HAS BEGUN. BE WARNED.
27 comments:
poor day today if one looks past the price
ben22
After the SPX tested and failed the daily R1 it was all downhill. From there it made three lower highs (on the 5-min chart). Low TICK was -1276. VIX closed higher. The fact that SPX closed slightly higher was a miracle in itself.
Ra,
no doubt, internals look pretty crappy over here
I think we will have a real big bounce back to the 1250 like AT lays out but from lower prices, though, lots of folks calling for that 1040 too.
Hard to say....big boys did some buying last week according to COT, so we'll see how the next 30 days plays out.
If you haven't read CR's piece on probably declining P/E ratios in the near future due to Boomer retirement or decline of risk, it is worth an eyeball.
Friday's SPY buying on weakness #s were completely reversed today. UFB.
Bruce,
you know it's sort of funny, if you plot out P/e ratio's the stuff we saw in 1999 and 2000 were basically the most insanely overvalued levels ever, in 2007 nearly the same
lots of pundits want to sit in this bathtub of warm denial that says since the creation of the internet the p/e ratio will always be higher, or that p/e ratio's should be higher because the economy is global...or pick whatever rationalization you like
nah, I think we'll see single digit p/e's on the entire market again
p/e ratio's are not fundamental measures, they are sentiment measures
and its getting darker out there....
Ben,
I agree with that. And at this point I think most of the moves of the federal reserve are deleterious. I hope my children get the same chances I got. My opinion is they will not.
By the way, I retired May 29. I hope to start operating overseas in Zambia next year on children with deformities. I'll let you know if it works out.
Ben,
From the previous thread. Yes, that could be a possibility, but I doubt that big oil would leave $20 for each barrel of oil, just to support Obama and Bernanke. I am not pretty sure, but I remember to have read that east coast gasoline prices are more related to Brent than WTI. I could see the government hand in oil and gas markets in order to make JOE feels better ( or at least not too bad) every time he goes to the gas station, but the only way I could believe big oil is helping with such a purpose is if they get something out of that plan, like smashing some competitors with that action. Exxon last year bought on the cheap a gas producer which had a lot of acreage but big debts. A lot of natural gas producers got acreage before the crisis when prices were above $8 and climbing, so with current low prices many of those companies are going to suffer since they will not be able to pay back the debt. Two years ago they could have sold futures at higher prices and hedge their production, but right now even future prices are quite depressed. So, I guess many of those companies will have to sell part of their assets on the cheap. Maybe, they are playing the same game with oil.
Cacerolo
Cacerolo,
I was really just kidding, to be very clear.
Bruce,
Congrats on your retirement. That's big news!
@BinT
Good on you...That's truly one of the more laudable things I've come across lately.
@AAIP (other thread)
FWIW... CV is NOT a 'Carcao' fan...
But your post brings up an interesting point...
---
In the interest of 'cost savings' they're going to start laying this shit on us until we're in full retard soylent green...
Then, within a decade or so, they won't be able to squeeze any cost savings out of CARCAO, so they'll move on to chickory...
I think it was actually Ron Paul who said...
"We couldn't main a gold or silver standard... then they couldn't maintain a Cu standard... & now we're struggling to maintain a fucking ZINC standard..."
I'm thinking that by the time we get to chickory... The dollar menu at Mcdonalds will, in fact, be catfood...
---
Footnote: CV made a nice cup of hot chocolate using COCOA that was (I kid you not)... 40 years old not too long ago...
COCOA bitchez!
@Cacerolo (other thread)
Ben was being snarky... But I'm NOT here (alert the media)...
The WTI - Brent spread has things to do with alot more than really anyone can imagine...
I'm not making this up (as everyone assumes CV USUALLY does)... I'm actually spouting 'Hugh Hendry' here... (please - nobody ask for the 'links' because one would have to be VERY enteprising to find them)...
Basically... I lived in Europe from 1994-2005... I got hooked on CNBC Europe, long about 1997 when I first got a SAT dish & would watch ANYTHING night & day (so long as it was in English)...
Hendry was the first dude my mind latched on to... He was the craziest MF in town (yet he was the only one who made any sense to me)... It was when he was working for Odey Asset Mgmt...
Anyway - He was usually on as a guest several times a week...
There's no way I can paint the whole picture here... But if you want a real understanding of WTI-Brent spreads (per Hendry - CV has a fotographic memory - it's how I remember), you have to go a lot deeper than Cushing inventory, CHF intervention, peak oil, rig explosions, ethanol subsidies (or not), or whatever...
Better to study your history (Think Hitler & Stalin)... Think Patton/Rommel... Think 'Manginot Lines', Ayatollahs, מלחמת ששת הימים, Milhemet Sheshet Ha Yamim,...
Rock the Casbah bitchez!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U4HPdWYwgyw&feature=fvst
@ben
Terrelle Pryor... to... 'de RAIdERS'...(only to be said like Chris Berman)...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5WW2ToREjCo
But LOOK man... SUPPLEMENTAL draft???... 'de RAIdERS' have ZERO... count em ZERO picks in the 2nd, 3rd, & 4th rounds of next years draft...
Undead al davis is getting worse by the minute...
I'll be surprised if Terelle Pryor lasts as long as JaMarcus Russell... (Undead AL ain't no drafting fool - He's just a FOOL)...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q3ZGXLjZHDc
BTW...
That last clip is a 'shout out' to all the homies who will be drafting their fantasy teams in about a week...
Good Luck bitchez! (you're gonna need it)... :-)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q3ZGXLjZHDc
cv--
We saw that "Carob for Cocoa"-Switch, tried, here in the States, once before, no?
'7x's, yes?
~~~
and, on the, waay, Tangent...
http://bodyecology.com/articles/hidden_dangers_of_processed_foods.php
also, I've a "Socionomics" Q:, related to that "Sugar" 'Comment', coming in 8, 5, 3, 2...
but, I need to Hop, B bak inna bit..
AAIP
CV,
ugh...Pryor, he could wreak havoc on the team, can't stand that guy but he's the typical Raider in a lot of ways.
here's another one, on that Topic, above..
http://www.puristat.com/standardamericandiet/processedfoods.aspx
OK, re: "Come Cash Flow, Come P***y"
in a sense, I've long known it to be a *Truism..
though, seemingly, more recently, throughout *more 'Walks of Life', I've noticed that "Trim" is 'On Sale', moreso, than I, ever, recall..
not sure how I can describe the *Data, though, for sure, in General/Random, I've never heard so many exclaim: "but for a 'Million Dollars'"/"A grrreat Date would be a 'Round of Golf, Dinner after, then, 'who knows?'"/"for a Hunfred Dollars, or a 'Gift' like that!, yeah, Any!thing..."
not sure if I'm describing, Well, but, have any, of y'all, noticed Such?/Similar?
ibid.
I bet Ohio State fans didn't believe they could get a bigger disaster than Maurice Clarett. Then, they got Terrell Pryor.
Maybe if they would stop recruiting thugs, they could put Humpty Dumpty together again. Would it really be so bad to finish 3rd in the Big Ten (big eleven now twelve) if it didn't mean jeopardising your entire program?
"bathtub of warm denial"
Awesome turn of the phrase there ben.
"Undead al davis is getting worse by the minute..."
He's really the worse. It's awful there...
Living in Houston, we've seen some really shitty teams in the last decade...but man o' man...
That guy has drafted and traded for some real "duessies"...
@Cacerolo..
Last comment on the WTI deal...
There's a large oil company who owns midwest refineries and who benefits from a really depressed WTI market relative to brent. They make a ton when Midwest cracks are strong, as they are now.
The same company owns the pipeline that connects Cushing, OK to the Gulf Coast.
The same company hasn't done much to alleviate the 'problems' in the Midwest oversupply.
you can put 2 + 2 together....
BinT...
congrats on the retirement....
I met a "doctors without borders" guy in Costa Rica a few years ago....was the most 'content' guy i've EVER met in my life.
he's the typical Raider in a lot of ways....
That's a bingo!
Basically... 'OVERraided'
Tim Tebow is one of the my sleepers for this year in FF.
I drafted Doug Flutie.
Well that didn't take long: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/sp-board-fires-ceo-telling-truth-be-replaced-coo-citibank
S&P Board Fires CEO For Telling The Truth, To Be Replaced With COO Of Citibank
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