AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Bear: "My turn..."

Creditcane™: Today was a hastily arranged match. Rematch still scheduled July 1, 2011.

Bearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. No test of 0.0% retrace (1370.58). Tested and failed 14.6% retrace (1352.84) but held the 23.6% (1341.90). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1363.61). QE2infinity. "JBTFD. Any questions?"

Bullish long day (denied the bearish harami pattern). Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (72.70). Still above SMA(21). Tested and held its 23.6% retrace (74.73). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 73.12).

Bullish short long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Back above SMA(21). Held its 14.6% retrace (16.75). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 18.40). Still in the "no fear" zone.

Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (1577.40). Failed to hold SMA(21). Tested and failed its 23.6% retrace (1514.39). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1557.10). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.

Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Failed to hold SMA(21) & SMA(144). Failed to hold parallel trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.8868).

Bearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above SMA(21). No test of 0.0% retrace (40.93). Tested and failed its 14.6% retrace (40.73). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.81).

Bearish long day. Still below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (31.41). Still failing the upper trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 32.23).

Bearish long day (morning star pattern went supernova). Failed to hold SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (114.83). Tested and failed its 50.0% retrace (101.54). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 113.93).

Bearish long day (another morning star went supernova). Still above SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed the upper trend line. Tested and failed its 50.0% retrace (38.05). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 39.39). ""You want delivery! You can't handle the delivery!"

RBOB Gasoline
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below SMA(21) and held SMA(55). No test of 0.0% retrace (3.42). Tested and failed its 23.6% retrace (3.19). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 3.40).


The Bond Report 5.11.11

The credit markets have been quiet lately, bond prices drifting upwards on lower Treasury yields and stable credit spreads. Today was typical. Note that JNK hasn't been selling off, and typically credit leads equities, so no sign here yet of a liquidity shortage. Fixed income as a whole remains highly vulnerable to rate risk.

Corpies: LQD 0.16%; AGG 0.18%; JNK -0.18%; HYG -0.15%
Govies: TLT 0.57%; IEI 0.23%; TIP -0.32%
Munis: IQI -0.57%; MUB 0.23%
Mortgages: MBB 0.02%
Specialty: ZROZ 1.05%; TBT -1.03%; EMB -0.03%

We have a bit of JNK and a bit of TLT, but basically haven't been involved lately. At the close we shorted the long end, both to fade the recent move and in view of initial claims tomorrow. This is a noisy series so the danger is of a downside surprise in the number, indicating improving employment conditions, and triggering Treasury weakness.

Of course a decent number would be DXY positive, but not necessarily equity positive as the commodity rout might be extended.



AmenRa said...

Another reason why selling double or triple ETFs is the better play:

Andy T said...

triple and double ETFs = Money Vampires

Always have been. Always will be.

Worst idea ever for John Q. Public.

Andy T said...

Thanks for the Bond Report LB. Will need to study the JNK a bit more closely tomorrow.

Andy T said...

My take away from taking hard looks at WTI and Rbob today....

The technical picture on RBOB still looks much better than WTI. Translation: Cracks are set for one more push higher.

A break below 307-308 on RBOB squashes those ideas.

spoonman said...

"My turn."


Andy T said...

Random Sports Thought:

I've been listening to a lot of ESPN Radio on the drive into the Mines in the last year....not something I did much of before.

The sense I've gotten is a lot of 'hate' toward LeBron James....

"He's not a closer."

"He's not 'the man' because he joined D. Wade who seems to be 'the man.'"

All of that talk has been BullShit.

LeBron James is a friggin' stud.

He's been guarding the best player on the Celts (Paul Pierce) night in and night out. That's hard work.

Tonight, he CLOSED.

That was Jordan-esque.

D. Wade was a stud in the 1/Half. L.James finished that game tonight.

Probably won't be hearing too much of that "hate" for at least another week.

The Heat look like the best team in Basketball by a decent margin.

Great Playoffs going down this year. I love it.

Andy T said...

Another sports item Bitchez':

I'll be seated in Row 1 behind Home Plate (Diamond Suite) of the Astros/Mets game this Friday night.

I know the 'Stros suck ass, but these DEFINITELY are the best seats in the house.

Should be fun.

AmenRa said...

I just did a WTI/RBOB chart and noticed that it's trending down on the monthly 3LB. So RBOB has increased more than WTI. All of the complaints about oil prices and yet gas prices have increased faster than oil.

AmenRa said...

BWAHAHAHA plug for Bad Teacher

Teacher: LeBron will never be Jordan. Call me when Lebron has six championship rings.

Student: Is that the only argument you have?

Teacher: It's the only argument I need!

Andy T said...

AR: No doubt.

MJ was the best I've ever seen and probably the best there ever was.

But, if I was team captain on a school yard and had the entire NBA to pick from, LeBron would be first pick.

Funny enough, D. Wade would likely be my second pick after the other Captain took Kobe.

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