90 Day Treasury (weekly info)-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=down (2 bars)
low= 0.070
rev= 0.170; mid= 0.130
China is raising rates. The ECB may raise rates. But the Fed won't be doing a damn thing according to what's going on with the 90 Day Treasury.
3 Month vs Overnight LiborOk. Ok. I know I keep bringing this back up. But the spread is now increasing at a faster rate. Most know that overnight libor should be increasing but it's decreasing even faster now. How many of the banks that report are fudging their numbers? Esto no terminará bien.
90 comments:
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/04/05/radiation-level-japan-seawater-millions-times-legal-limit/?test=latestnews
Radioactive Water Leaked in Pacific Causes Radiation in Fish
..CV! Tilapia will make you rich! Can you send me a twenty?
http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=EURUSD&tf=h1
U$D 1.43+ on the Mayo..
are We going to get a 'Sell on the News'-reaction, when the ECB, actually, raises Rates?
ibid.
I would think, er, going forward that the financial tap is going to slowly be closed. Folks, no matter how much everything and everyone is dependent on federal government spending, the Ryan budget proposal this week is getting even the slackers to think about how much debt we have and how much pain we have to undergo to be solvent as a nation.
I think I agree with LB yesterday, that finally the S has hit the F.
By the way, I Man, the avatar is the Polly Falls area taken by a CPA hiking friend of mine with a timed exposure. He sells a lot of his work to outdoorsy-type magazines and for advertising...
"are We going to get a 'Sell on the News'-reaction, when the ECB, actually, raises Rates?"
...I vote yes.
...if you are barely making house payments, and they raise the rate of your mortgage.......
BinT,
re: "Tilapia"..
http://search.yippy.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&v%3Aproject=clusty&query=closed+system+Aquaculture
is going to be a growing endeavor..could soak up some of the abandoned CRE that is in increasing supply, as well..
AAIP
@AAIP @Bruce
Get this through your head...
Nobody around is interested in TILAPIA until they start TRADING TILAPIA FUTURES on the Comex (and drawing triangles & fibos on the prices...
Got that?
CV -- they aren't trading tilapia, they're eating tilapia!
@Jennifer
They HAVE to eat tilapia... Because they're out of PIMENTO CHEESE & EGG SALAD too... The world is going to hell!
Panic at Masters - no pimento cheese
http://www.bizjournals.com/atlanta/morning_call/2011/04/panic-at-masters---no-pimento-cheese.html
Velveeta bitchez!
See people... Here's the LOGIC...
1. You can't EAT gold
2. TILAPIA & PIMENTO CHEESE SANDWICHES are "good as gold"
Therefore, by deduction...
You can't EAT Tilapia or Pimento cheese sandwiches... (but long after humans are gone - algos - which will still be running off of wind power - will be trading tilapia & pimento cheese futures on the COMEX)...
By that same logic...
1. ALL that glitters ISN'T gold
2. Gold glitters
Therefore - gold ISN'T gold!
Tungsten bitchez!
1. GE "We bring good things to life" (slogan)
2. GREED is good (Gordon Gekko)
Therefore:
GE brings GREED to life!
cv--
for the want of a simple back-up generator..
it's, really, Surprising that there aren't any at that complex..
ibid.
Silver...hit the cup and handle pattern target on the 60 min. highlighted that chart pattern last night.
Here's your funny headline of the day:
"SEC Unveils Plan to Reduce Market Volatility"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42446918
As if that should be the "role" of government...to ensure that stocks maintain an "orderly" appearance.
Funny.
@Andy T
I saw that... Cool chart!
(9:27)
Talk about "painting" the tape!
@Andy T
I'd keep in mind (apart from the FIBO numbers)...
Silver seems to have had a fixation with pure PSYCHOLOGICAL numbers...
- $20 which was cracked and started the big move
- $30 was hit, but then took a whole 2 months to get thru
- now flirting with $40 (which may do the same)
- then, $50 was the HUNT BROS number...
@CV,
Good call on SILVER!
Got my ass handed to me on HQS. Stock halted while awaiting auditor to finish the quarterly report.
Good thing I diversify by never putting more than 100% of my money into one basket.
>> "SEC Unveils Plan to Reduce Market Volatility"
We decree it!
@Anon
It's hard to be saying BUY (silver) way up here...
But on the other hand... The dollar sure doesn't look very enthusiastic...
It's hard for me to see any dramatic pullback in PM's or crude until the dollar gets a bid...
And it's hard to see the dollar getting any interest until a DECISION has been made that QE3 is OFF LIMITS (which is pretty laughable)...
All that's happening right now (inside the beltway) is what I'd call the PREAMBLE to the BLAME GAME...
The FED is "kind of" jawboning around trying to create the ILLUSION that there won't be a QE3 (or a QE18)... They're mainly just hoping things won't get out of hand until some strategically "right time" to pull the plug... Then they can crash the markets and take commodities down with them...
On the other side... The government is flirting around with the "SHUTDOWN" debate... BOTH sides know that there will be NO AUSTERITY (they're just choosing sides so that when TSHTF, they'll be able to point at the culprit...
The BEST of BOTH WORLDS (for these folks) is where the government actually DOES shut down for a bit (as it has 17 times since 1977)... So some museums get closed for a few weeks, but they run a full blown media campaign to SCARE everybody that they will not get their social security, or whatever entitlements...
Then... When it it is OBVIOUS that it is the "will of the people" to keeps the checks rolling, they can proceed with (QE18), because there is no other way...
I'd be BingTFD on commodities in this process (which - I'd imagine - will bottom out sometime between mid April & October [frontrun the "Sell in May & Go Away"])...
It's PRICE inflation from then on forward... Get stocked up... The next decade will likely involve incrementally POTY TRAINING Americans to pay $4 gas, then $5, then $7, then $10... and on and on...
So as I've said for A LONG TIME now... If you're a trader that is PROFITING 30% a year on your trades... It's very possible that you'll be BREAKING EVEN on what that money will buy you...
Unless the ONLY things you buy are new tablet computers...
My best analogy?
Welcome to the TREADMILL bitchez!
You have 3 ways - right now - to "offset" the speed of that treadmill...
1. Start growing your own food (and/or buy land that gets you close to people who do that)...
2. Install LOWER COST energy systems for your home (wind, solar, propane gas generators, pellet stoves &/or traditional fireplaces)
3. Diversify a portion of your "cash" holdings to PM's (PHYSICAL, not ETF's)...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Portugal-sees-irreparable-rb-2800241319.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=
Portugal sees "irreparable damage" in debt cost
"LISBON (Reuters) - Portugal's caretaker government, fighting to avoid a bailout, said on Wednesday a political crisis had caused "irreparable damage" after borrowing costs rocketed as it sold a billion euros in short-term debt."
...Well, actually, no. The irreparable damage occured by spending year after year more than the government took in. What you see now is merely a symptom of the disease, not the disease itself...
"Amen" to that, Bruce. The malinvestment occurred. The question is whether to admit it and write down the debt or to bail out -- no, "GIFT money to" -- people who invested poorly.
Although any trader worth his/her salt simply knows that:
- land
- food
- water
- wood
- & metals
are all BARBARIC relics! :-)
"Good thing I diversify by never putting more than 100% of my money into one basket."
..grin..
@wunsacon
The malinvestment occurred. The question is whether to admit it and write down the debt or to bail out -- no, "GIFT money to" -- people who invested poorly
Naw - no problems with any of that... The SIMPLE & OBVIOUS solution to extricate themselves from the situation is to STEAL the money from individuals who SAVED all that time...
It would be a shame if your SAVINGS were held in bank notes... Not so bad if your SAVINGS were held in physical goods...
Now... If the government starts sending workers door to door to start confiscating frozen pork tenderloins from peoples freezers...
Then I'll consider my POV as having been in error...
Keep stops tight. My only worry is that this consolidation leads to a breakout in either direction. Which way is the question. IMHO they'll force the market higher until the end of June. Large players may exit in May though.
@Amen (11:42)
It would be hard to argue with that (given that the R2K & DOW have already gone past their 2/18 highs)...
May distribution?
SPX 5 min chart has the look of a wedge that wants to break up. Everyone's gone quiet...not just here either.
If you look at a 30min SPX chart you can see the gaps from last Friday and the previous Wednesday are begging to get filled before moving higher.
Today may have been the exhaustion gap on the 30min chart. But these low volume days that close slightly higher are not good for the bears as it works off overbought conditions.
What's a bear?
What's a bear?
Last seen hanging out with goldilocks...
This is just FUNNY...
In Case Of Government Shut Down, Close IRS... But Keep POMO Open
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/case-government-shut-down-close-irs-keep-pomo-open
In order to make the biggest strawman so far in 2011 really scary and nasty, the administration just announced that as part of a government shut down, the IRS would end up being closed. While according to some this is the ulterior motive all along to avoid the premature outflow of tens of billions in cash due to federal tax refunds hitting the IRS next week, which without a debt ceiling hike would push the country into technical default possibly as soon as next week (debt subject to the limit was $14.2 trillion two days ago, just $94 billion under the ceiling and with about $74 billion in debt to be issued next week a $20 billion tax refund withdrawal would push the Treasury over the limit), what is far more amusing is that as the WSJ reminds us, the Fed would still be able to monetize debt regardless if the government was operating or not. Ergo nothing can end POMO ahead of time, not even a complete US government shutdown.
"Since it doesn’t rely on Congressional funds, the U.S. central bank would remain open for business as usual, with normal staffing levels. The Fed would therefore be able to continue with its day-to-day operations, such as buying some $7.0 billion U.S. Treasurys on Monday, April 11. The government bond purchases, due to run until June, are part of the Fed’s latest effort to stimulate the economy."
Well, that and about $400 billion for the next 3 months. So in the absence of new Treasury auctions, the Fed would essentially start canibalizing existing debt in circulation even more as no incremental gross debt will be monetized. Luckily for the Fed, the 35% SOMA holdings top is no longer in existence so should the government not issue one bond in the next 3 months, the Fed will still hit $2.9 trillion in total "assets" by the end of June.
Amusingly the WSJ is concerned that the Fed would not have economic data during the span of a long-term shutdown:
One potential danger for the Fed is that the data it needs to take policy decisions to steer the economy in the right direction may be delayed. That would only be a problem if the shutdown lasts a long time, an unlikely scenario.
Still, during a three-week partial shutdown caused by the budget impasse at the end of 1995 and start of 1996, some key indicators on jobs, prices and spending released by the Labor and Commerce Departments were delayed, creating some headaches at the central bank. Then Vice-Chairman Alan Blinder complained it made it harder for the Fed to set interest rates.
Alas, it appears that the WSJ has not yet gotten the memo that the only "economic" indicator the Fed watches for is the Russell 2000. Everything else is goalseeked smoke and mirrors.
So as should be clear... What CV was saying (9:58 - above)... Market movements are likely to be entirely predicated on these strawmen...
NOT on the interaction of the massive collection of TDAmeritrade account holders "firing off the trade" with their pattern recognition software...
I am POMO. I am invincible.
DXY back below the 11/4/10 low of 75.63.
We advocate a strong dollar policy...
http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/us-economic-calendar.aspx
MBA Purchase Applications
"The refinance index fell 6.2 percent with the report saying the pool of borrowers with the incentive and the ability to qualify for refinancing continues to shrink"
...obviously the Jenny Craig of money pools.....
Today is spooky. LB is far from bearish, but...
We were selling like gangbusters yesterday, index ETFs only.
If we see a 4.60% long bond today or next week, we will buy it.
If we look at the 2.31% 5y long enough, we will drink her pretty.
VIX = 16.50 LOD.
Where's Marky Mark to sell calls and buy some puts?
We are up 8.8% this year. That's a year for some people, and we are not feeling like giving up a large chunk of it.
Rule 1, don't lose money.
Rule 2, don't forget rule 1.
Rule 3, be fearful when others are greedy.
Two cancellations in a row this afternoon....borING....
The weather is gorgeous....I need to be outside now.....
Warren, do you have any Charlie left?
Lefty,
It's so gorgeous outside today, it would make you forget where you left the Swedes..
upro just keeps on chugging...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Rising-oil-prices-beginning-apf-1311732829.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=
Rising oil prices beginning to hurt US economy
"High energy prices are "putting a drain on consumer budgets," says James Hamilton at the University of California, San Diego. "To the extent they're having to spend more on gasoline, they have to make cutbacks elsewhere."
....I know, I know...you WANT me to say something snarky like "At the University of California, they think it is a good day when they discover their navel."
...but I won't....so there...
Swedes? Rutabagas?
Watch out for that leverage, Bruce. It can burn ya.
Me, I'm still lookin' at that 5y, and she's mighty purty today.
We all know what you think about Californian navels.
I hear that some are outstandingly juicy.
Bruce
Is that a state college or a for profit?
:-)
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Toyota-sells-1-millionth-apf-2705926381.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=
Toyota sells 1 millionth Prius hybrid in US
...Yes, dear friends, I do drive one of those million Priuseses....indeed. And yes, they are wonderful. If you ask them too they will scape the frost from the windshield in the morning. Yes, they will run you a warm tub bath after a hard day a the salt mine. Yes, they will offer stock advice that never fails. Yes, they would balance the budget without pain if allowed to run for president.
..My wife has one too...
I cancelled my subscription to EWI today.
No Lefty, navel doesn't have anything to do with the BDI...
If the last couple of bubbas don't hurry up, I will have to leave the mine screaming....the sunshine is CALLING me to leave...if I was a ship I'd crash on the rocks....
Hurry THUp, missing bubbas!
I have twiddled all the skin off my thumbs...
Did you know if you rearrange the letters in "Lefty" you can spell Fleyt?
Handy for commiting crimes -- no fingerprint.
99 bottles of beer on the wall,
99 bottles of beer...
Take one down and pass it around,
98 bottles of beer on the wall.
98 bottles of beer on the wall...
I suppose I could move the office out to the grass by the sidewalk...
Jennifer
Can be done surgically too...
...nurse vetoed that...humpffff.
Jennifer said...
I cancelled my subscription to EWI today.
April 6, 2011 3:49 PM
~~~~~~~~
Good Call.
Reading a book now where one of the main characters amputated his own finger when it became infected.
Grabbed a few 5s, not any big ting, mon...
Andy -- thanks, wondering what took me so long, actually.
I have timed it...I guess I'll have to write a paper...
It actually takes 16 minutes for the clock to go from 2:57 to 2:58.....
Jennifer:
Honestly, here. I knew a man who did his own vasectomy. (General surgeon).....
If I don't get outside soon, I may try it myself...
Bruce -- neighbor's brother, when asked if he had any allergies, said no. Actually though, he was allergic to cats. Catgut used in said procedure with very bad results. I didn't know catgut was still used in America. Whoops.
ES selling off in the AH.
Nurse is getting ugly...something about not asking her to call the last two bubbas...AGAIN...
chromic catgut is used every day...treatment with chromic acid lets it dissolve but lasts longer than plain catgut.
Really busy here...
watching Man U/Chelsea in the UEFA quarterfinals.
This is impossible...EVEN Lefty could have gotten a date in this much time....
Hedoublehockeysticks...
...Nurse has an unusual snarl on her upper lip now...
Finally!
@LB: I've been looking at the belly of the curve as well. Most of those issues have been in a bit of a slide since mid-March.
My problem is that the potential reward in that sector isn't attractive enough for me to move out of cash positions and I am not feeling enough conviction in any of my positions to trade up for the 5s or 7s.
I don't even feel strongly about the emerging market equities (EM debt is a totally different story--those EM sovereigns are trading rich in my opinion).
This is a point where I am taking half of my tactical allowance and balancing it according to my core allocation and leaving the remainder in cash.
I'm a whimp :D
Matthew,
We went from 70% risk assets down to 35% these last two days.
Right now we are 27% divvy longs, 5% EWJ, 27% shorts [NEUTRAL]
Fixed income is 7 JNK, 3 AGG, 3 IEI and 3 TLT [NEUTRAL]
Do the math, got 25% cash, ready to go to work again.
Not a massive amount of conviction, just 6th sensing risk.
I usually slide in and out in smaller increments, moved fast here.
Can't put my finger on it, too many bulls and DGDFers....
What yield curve would get you buying Ts?
2y 1.00
3y 1.50
5y 2.50
10y 3.75
30y 4.80
Something like that?
Free at last!
Free at last!
...Later.
Huge excitement in NY this week as MetroNorth added new trains to their New Haven line.
The 1950s technology they installed in the 1970s has now been replaced by what looks like 1980s European rail cars installed in 2011.
You have to admire this country....
I would buy 10years at 3.75 and hold them here if the future is what it appears it will have to be..(short term, CV, I will grant you some stagflation....)
anyway...out!
Yes, those 10s will look lovely when Qe2 comes to an end.
We have a 2.5% GDP after BB's Qe2 pumping roughly 4% GDP.
The underlying deflation at -1.5% will reassert itself.
Back, by popular demand, it's......:
The Bond Report 4.6.11
Today was that "risk-on steepener" that we have seen so many times in between POMOs and the next long bond auction. Punters were dumping govies and the long end was hit hard, almost reaching LB's magic limit of 4.60% on the 30y.
We are not doing much in this market. There isn't a lot of value. HY spreads are too tight, and govie yields are not compelling. Munis and mortgages have been moribund of late.
Corpies: LQD -0.32%; AGG -0.30%; JNK 0.25%; HYG 0.22%
Govies: TLT -1.50%; IEI -0.21%; TIP -0.54%
Munis: IQI -0.33%; MUB -0.40%
Mortgages: MBB -0.08%
Specialty: ZROZ -1.99%; TBT 2.97%; EMB 0.24%
This week we reduced JNK to 7% and added some IEI. Total fixed income is now 16%. We all know where the action is, it is in commodities, FX and equities for now. But wait until May....
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=VHC
who likes that Chart?
~~
also, re: VIX, Options are really inexpensive..
esp. Puts..
AAIP
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