AA (weekly info)new high 17.50
trend=up
high= 17.50
rev= 16.42; mid= 16.96
The move higher looks to be running out of steam. How much will input costs affect Alcoa? It is now trading above its high from Jan 2010. If it can clear this area then the 38.2% retrace (20.17) is the next area of resistance.
Swiss Franc (weekly info)-no change (below mid)
trend=up
high= 1.1090
rev= 1.0714; mid= 1.0902
Just when I thought this was a safe haven it had a dark cloud cover with confirmation. It is also below its weekly 3LB mid making it even weaker. It may be on hiatus until QE2 ends. It also is lower due to strength in EURUSD. Considering that the EURUSD is ready to implode makes this very unusual.
39 comments:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/inflation-inflicting-pain-as-wages-fail-to-keep-pace-with-price-hikes/2011/03/09/AF6K2seC_story.html
Inflation inflicting pain, as wages fail to keep pace with price hikes
"But if commodity prices must now be added to other inflationary pressures, policymakers may need to keep interest rates higher than they would otherwise. The European Central Bank appears poised to raise rates this week, reacting to higher fuel prices.
But for the United States, that option is less attractive than in the past because of the effect higher rates could have on the already burdensome federal budget. In the early 1980s, the Fed successfully ended double-digit inflation by aggressively raising interest rates, though at the cost of a deep recession. The same sorts of interest rate increases now could be ruinous for government finances.
In 1981, when the federal government’s cost to borrow money by issuing a three-month Treasury bill spiked to 14 percent, government debt was only 40 percent of the nation’s overall economic output. Now it is above 90 percent."
...or, translated:
We have followed the lead of Greece and let our national debt grow to a size that cannot be serviced. We are truly screwn"
...Massive tree down last night in the storm...don't think I'm going to cut this one up myself..
And don't keep refering to me as Arthur Burns. That guy was a doofus.....
I know you are, but what am I?
pbttttttttt!
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/nasdaq-100-rebalancing-reduce-apple-weighing-20-12-0
Nasdaq 100 Rebalancing To Reduce Apple Weighing From 20% To 12%
In what could easily be the biggest news of the day, even more important than the most recent Chinese rate hike, the one stock that determines the broader stock market level more than any other, Apple, may well get crushed today as index arbs dump it following news that the Nasdaq 100 intends to announce a rebalancing which will see AAPL drop from a 20% to a 12% weighing. According to the WSJ, the move is akin to what various exchanges do when they hike margin rates to prevent commodity prices from surging: "The rebalancing was driven in part by the seemingly unstoppable rise in Apple shares, which are up more than fourfold in the past two years. The tech company's big weighting means that a change in fortune for the maker of iPhones, iPods and iPads has a huge impact on one of the most heavily traded indexes in the market. After the rebalancing, which takes effect May 2, Apple will make up 12% of the Nasdaq-100." Whether this will be the end of the company's relentless rise remains to be seen although any impairment in the sensitive ecosystem of technical factors that has so far prevented any fund from selling the company may well be impaired at this point, leading to the first bona fide sell off in the name in the past 3 years.
Now we know why Apple was relatively weak last few days...Nasdaq reshuffling.
Someone obviously "knew" that was going down....
Weak start, then rally caps on the ISM services data?
10y POMO today, 30y POMO tomorrow, don't short into it.
Andy, Macro Man commenters think sell the news EURUSD this week.
Your thoughts?
the Mayo @~1.42=Sell, to me..
AAIP
TAKE THIS JOB AND SHOVE IT
"Barack Obama and his minions were out in force on Friday declaring that the 216,000 jobs added in February are proof of a recovering economy. The unemployment rate fell to 8.8%, down from 9.8% in April 2010. All it took was 2.8 million Americans to leave the labor force to achieve this fabulous reduction in the unemployment rate. The percentage of Americans in the labor force of 64.2% is the lowest since 1983. The employment to population ratio of 58.5% is also the lowest since 1983. These atrocious figures are after a supposed economic recovery that has been underway for the last 18 months."
"The manipulation of data in order to spin the economic situation in this country in the best light possible has become so blatant that only the most ignorant could possibly believe it. The corporate mainstream media dutifully reports the propaganda, without ever critically assessing what is being distributed by the government. The percentage of the American working population in the workforce consistently ranged between 66% and 67% from 1998 through 2008. Then, suddenly in 2008, after the economy went in the tank, a couple million Americans found better things to do with their spare time and left the workforce. Anyone with an ounce of brains knows these people gave up and are really unemployed. The percentage of people in the labor force should be 66.5%. Using this 20 year average would add 5.5 million people to the civilian labor force and the unemployment rolls. This exercise in reality gives a real unemployment rate of 12%."
quote-of-the-day from the burning platform:
It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it. If you think about that, you’ll do things differently.
— Warren Buffett
yeah, right, tell it like it is
You mena even the NASDAQ rebalancing can't get this market to go down?
Someone obviously "knew" that was going down...
or it was just pattern recognition software firing off the trade because it is absurd to think that markets are manipulated or that anyone has any insider information...
It's all in good fun though (as long as you're the WINSHIELD not the BUG)...
Barack Obama and his minions were out in force on Friday declaring that the 216,000 jobs added in February are proof of a recovering economy
Well I can say one thing...
At least he didn't have him flown onto the deck of an aircraft carrier to announce it...
So he has THAT going for him... :-)
@Amen
Oughtta stick to the TRUE AMEN'S CORNER foto this week...
Being that it's MASTERS WEEK...
CV has learned to NEVER fool with the GOLF Gods...
RELEASE THE KRACKEN!
Did I miss something this last week or what? The comments have just dried up.
Prashant
It happened to my blog too. Even though I am the smartest and cutest blogger out there.
Prashant
it is what it is. Bears are so frustrated that they have gone back into hibernation until the fake supports are pulled.
There was a very definite and pronounced dip this morning. If you zoom in on the 30-second chart you can clearly see it around 9:30. Hope you bought it...
That "might" have something to do with it...
Probably not the leading factor, however.
...tbtwad...
(the blip that was a dip)....
ROFR... Krugman is hilarious. He explains QE2 !!!
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/04/04/the-transmission-mechanism-for-quantitative-easing-wonkish/?smid=tw-NytimesKrugman&seid=auto
Genius....
Hey Bruce,
You were good looking once, at least....
Where's my burger?
lefty,
those pictures were taken in 1969...a few years ago now.
How was your vacation?
Awesome vacation, Bruce. I might add your lady is lovely too.
Look out below, LB just purged risk assets, down from 70% to 47%.
I just don't like this market as much as I did a few weeks ago.
Made some good money on that swing, want to get back closer to 30%.
Lefty,
I am considering doing the same thing. I do very much still remember what a doofus Arthur Burns was, how he let early inflation grab a toehold, and how it was up to Paul Volcker to turn things around. I don't think Bernanke is up to the task. He seems too rigid ideologically to entertain curves in the road. In recent days I've bought the leveraged UPRO, and it has done pretty well. But when you consider everything, we are really not that much different than most other tragically indebted countries. I am contemplating exactly what you mention...
BWAHAHAHA AAPL now higher...
And Lefty, when I think about what causes this particular set of economic experimental items to go careening off towards deflation or inflation, I keep seeing things like the participation rate going down, and housing going under for the third time, and people with massive student loans still trying to pay them off. I don't feel like a country this indebted will end up with inflation as the final act, but when I sit down and make plans, and put a pencil to it 8 times I come up with 8 answers.
Mine is open, will be a pretty hairy day.
Maybe tonight.
Good luck.
Love the fact someone publicly "called out" St. Warren.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42432108
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Cuba-partners-to-drill-5-Gulf-apf-3323290458.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=&ccode=
Cuba, partners to drill 5 Gulf wells this summer
...PWC
Andy T
I was just watching that. The news readers were dumbfounded.
Love the fact someone publicly "called out" St. Warren.
It is becoming more and more acceptable to speak the truth. This might catch on, and if it does, there will be social change.
Yeah. Well CNBC prays at the Altar of St. Warren. Who knows what Becky Quick does for him on the side.
So, when a smart guy says something bad about WB, it's probably a stunner.
"It is becoming more and more acceptable to speak the truth. This might catch on, and if it does, there will be social change."
Indeed Sir!
Between the hypocritical put sales / weapons of mass financial destruction commentary, all the involvement propping up GS and the banks (clearly designed to boost the markets and keep those puts OTM), lobbying for an exemption for marking his puts to market, and the Sokol-Lubrizol crap, it should be obvious to all that Saint Warren ain't no saint. We didn't get CNBC on our trip, but CNN had nice coverage of the Sokol disaster while we were away.
Good get on CIM yesterday Lefty.
Saint? No such thing...
Thanks spoon, we catch knives with the best of em...
Golly gosh, I'm minded to not take you all to the Dairy Queen...
Or the Tastee Freez.
>> when I sit down and make plans, and put a pencil to it 8 times I come up with 8 answers.
Well, Bruce, stop using that 8-pointed pencil. There's your problem right there.
>> when I sit down and make plans, and put a pencil to it 8 times I come up with 8 answers.
Well, Bruce, stop using that 8-pointed pencil. There's your problem right there.
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