Case-Shiller (monthly info)new low 154.65
trend=down
low= 154.65
rev= 161.06; mid= 157.85
Per the Case-Shiller home prices are now trending down. So anyone saying home prices are at their lows are wrong. On top of that home prices have been heading lower for the last six months. Listen to those commercials if you want to - "Now is a great time to buy". Yeah right.
Skew (daily info)-no change (above mid)
trend=down
low= 118.54
rev= 128.76; mid= 123.65
This is something new. Skew is a measure of tail risk. Similar to the VIX but uses otm options in its calculations. Only recently being offered by the CBOE (since 2/23/11). Waiting for them to add the historical data to the data feed. Usually ranges from 100 (normal) to 150 (high risk). The Skew is the histogram and the Vix is the black line.
83 comments:
http://money.cnn.com/2011/03/29/news/economy/balanced_budget_amendment/index.htm
Balanced budget amendment: 'Irresponsible'
...I haven't the slightest,not the slightest doubt that we will come to pass this amendment. Not now perhaps, and only after we've elected grasshopper after grasshopper. But, I would suggest within 5 years, this will be law. As Germany, Sweden, Australia continue to prosper with fiscally conservative laws and budgets, we will finally come to see the harsh facts...you must only spend what you bring in.
Karen,
Continuing to add to the UPRO..
..simple is as simple does...as Forrest would say..
ADP at 201k. Inline with expectations.
Gold up.
Silver way up.
Yen being sold hard.
@Amen
R2K not too far from making a HOY...
BinT-
just a heads up re UPRO, be wary of 1st qtr earnings, as they may disappoint (due the margin squeeze that's going on due to input prices).
CV-
Thanks for the explanation yesterday. I guess I didn't pick up on the nuances of your posts.
OMEX bitchez...
wow, doesn't this just sound wrong, as in not right, as in, how can this be good? From Yahoo finance:
"What could derail Trennert's forecast for U.S. stocks grinding higher? Not global unrest . . .[but if] governments currently printing money to goose their economies are forced to put the clamps on, it could lead to lower stock prices around the world."
I don't know, call me a rube, but WTF? Doesn't it just sound like a something from a Monty Python sketch: "you see if you print money, then we can all get rich!" LOL
@ahab
Well from my POV... The "good news" about money printing is that there will be more confetti to toss around at my party when silver hits $50
CV-
no doubt . . .behavior right now seems very similar to the latter stages of a bubble . . .if you listen to what the expert says, no money printing, stock markets go down
makes me feel warm and fuzzy knowing that the world is in good hands
@ahab
behavior right now seems very similar to the latter stages of a bubble
http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/how%20and%20when%2003-01-2011.pdf
(page 5)
It depends on what timeframe you're looking at...
I'll give it a read. There are some traders at Slope of Hope, very bearish, saying that the S&P will go to 1650, before it all comes tumbling down.
seems almost unbelievable, but then again, maybe it is what happens when we have central banks providing the fuel for the fire.
NSA to investigate NASDAQ intrusion from October. Now we'll get to see how the Fed implements its monetary policy...
wow, this site has become a sleepy little place
@ahab
You have to look at it this way...
2000, was, for all intents & purposes, the top of the bubble in equities... (Look at the dollar performance of PM's vs. equities since then)...
During the "naughts" (2000-just prior to the 2008 collapse), commodity prices rose, but as far as mainstream was concerned, it went unnoticed (because it was much more interesting to buy a house for no money down and obtain bundles of credit off of that)...
Livin' Large (on debt)...
After the credit collapse in 2008, commodities were the FIRST to rebound (november 2008 vs. March 2009 for the S&P when basically "mark to myth" became a reality for banks and Obama duly informed everyone that stocks had a good "PROFIT to earnings" outlook...
What has changed since then? Has the economy recovered on it's own?
No...
Are we out of debt?
No...
Is the debt situation even marginally better?
No...(in fact - it's a lot worse)
So there's no way to keep functioning without debt monetization (or conversely - crash the system)...
So the game right now is to find a convenient "scapegoat"...
If the FED goes ahead with QE3 (commodities rise faster [sooner])... If they WAIT, and the market 'corrects' for a few months, unemployment ticks up, misery indices rise, etc. then you can bet your bottom nickle that WASHINGTON will come out and BEG the Fed to do a QE3...
So that shifts the blame from the Fed to Washington DC...
Either way, the 'trajectory' of commodity prices (since 2000), would seem to suggest that the process is far from over (pausing only to refresh the BLAME elements connected to the political cycle)...
Further - what's MORE scary is to think that Chinese (& now Japanese) are no longer buying US debt... Instead, other countries are diversifying what USED to be dollar/debt purchases and instead buying PM's...
Despite what you hear on TV... Most Americans do not own substantial amounts of PM's...
Want to see?
OK... Go get a scale and weigh all your gold & silver (then check the spot prices)... Now compare that amount to your total net worth...
Or, a different way of looking at it would be to look at your annual salary, and make a calculation as to how much physical gold or silver you purchased in the past year...
If that number is under 20% - I'd say that in THESE times, you're behind the 8 ball...
Let's say that you made $100,000 last year... 20% of that is $20,000...
Did you buy $1,250 ounces of silver at $16 (got those 12 100oz silver bars in your safe)... Didn't think so... Lucky for you though, now that silver is $38, you only can buy 5 bricks (so you have lot's of room in the safe)...
Maybe you were REALLY smart and bought AAPL stock at $260 last year (and got around a 40% move in that)... Still holding? or did you cash out at the top (and pay taxes on that)...
Shame that the dollar is off 15% from it's value when you bought the AAPL at $260...
Should have just bought Apples (the fruits) which have practically doubled in cost since then...
But I'm sure you had the foresight and "grew your own" apples in your yard... Right?
Look AHAB - I'm not saying that these commodity prices don't look TOPPY here... But the long term "trend is your friend" (until Ron Paul gets elected POTUS)...
@ahab
wow, this site has become a sleepy little place
TRADERS don't like to hear CV talk about these things (because they don't agree)... I don't have any evidence, but I suspect they're "secretly" taking their business elsewhere...
When the dollar skyrockets, and gold & silver crash to ZERO, I'm sure they all will be back to wag their fingers at me...
ahab
Sleepy or stunned that the market has continued higher after all of the bad news. We're driving past a multiple car pile up and can't stop staring.
@Amen
How is it possible that any traders here are 'stunned'?
The market "is what it is", right?
STUNNED would imply that there was a certain bias (and that bias was in question)...
You and Andy don't seem stunned... (Incredulous, perhaps, as am I, STUNNED? no)...
I, for one, am "stunned"...
Good morning! Well, I certainly can't agree with the dollar skyrocketing, and gold & silver crashing to ZERO, LOL..
Quick move down in silver there...
One more test to see if $36 holds as a floor???
That $36 level has been 'much discussed' by many blogs (who have ZERO credible evidence that the level means anything or not, or if there's any attempt to manipulate it in the paper markets)...
Just like in 2007 when nobody had any credible evidence that housing was in a bubble, and, in fact, the Fed Chairman himself was publicly stating that 'subprime was contained'...
@wunsacon
I typed here on this blog last week that
"Important market tops aren't made on bad news"
(Not that I take credit for the concept - but was just reminding everyone of the idea)...
ANDY T said the same thing last evening in the comment section...
AmenRa:
Your charts always have such a Christmasy colour to them.
Anyhow, I am most amused by the apparent short term trending in the housing prices. Momentum, in my mind, was always something that can be found in speculative markets (e.g., securities markets). Certainly, there is a share of speculation in the housing market, but I would have expected frictional forces to be a lot stronger (i.e., people moving because of employment changes, retirement, etc.).
It just seems odd to me.
"...gold & silver crashing to ZERO..."
+ the old idea, that ~"one will find them out back, by the Dumpster.."
is, too, funny..
~~
AT, from previous thread, yes, the 'where & when' Rules on "Sales" is, still, incredible..
good thing We live in 'the Freeest Country on Earth'..~
AAIP
Matthew
People are moving. But they're moving back to their parents home. So their home goes on the market. It is priced too high and doesn't sell. Eventually the price drops and it sells. But the new price may have been a 20%-40% discount.
@AAIP
Yeah... CV has been having trouble getting to the mailbox lately...
I need a snowshovel to clear away all the worthless discarded gold & silver littering the pathway...
good thing We live in 'the Freeest Country on Earth'..~
Well I suppose you have to be FREE, before you can be 'FREEFALLING'...
You talking to me?
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=DNN
for all the people I've heard, recently, 'Super-Bullish' on the 'Buy the Catastrophe'-Trade/ Long U & the Miners to go with it..
I would have thought that DNN would have been 3+, not ~2.46..
ibid.
@Amen
People are moving. But they're moving back to their parents home. So their home goes on the market. It is priced too high and doesn't sell. Eventually the price drops and it sells. But the new price may have been a 20%-40% discount.
Hell - if that's the case (40% discount), it might make more sense for the PARENTS to take out a reverse mortgage on theirs, & "pay off" the nicer digs, and move in with the kids...
Just kidding, of course...
You can't really do it because you'd still have to maintain the taxes and insurance (now on 2 properties)...
But what I AM saying is... Don't put it past people to think of creative solutions (that certainly don't show up as statistics on central bankers forecasts)...
@AAIP (11:06)
See - there's something that CV has been thinking about...
Why the hell buy 'miners'? if you think gold and silver are going to rise...
If, by chance, they start going vertical, wouldn't it be more worth it to them to KEEP IT IN THE GROUND?
You hear of Chinese farmers 'hoarding' their cotton & rice crops (because they expect higher prices)... Wouldn't the same go for miners?
Just sell barely enough to meet your costs and keep the rest in the ground...
That's why I put up the link today
OMEX bitchez!
I'd rather have 'treasure hunters' finding sunken gold or silver at the bottom of the sea...
of course people are giving up their homes, AFTER 2 or more years of no payments
not a bad deal, their credit will suck for a while, but hey, look at all the money they were able to spend on other things
it's stimulus!
hey, look at all the money they were able to spend on other things
I'm going to guess that those OTHER THINGS were iPads & restaurant tabs...
Not gold or silver bars...
CV-
exactly, and don't forget dining out at PF Chang's and the Cheese Cake Factory- lol
Some anecdotes on gasoline prices...
My boss, who has a lot of money, was complaining about the price of gasoline.... "It cost me $75 bucks to fill up my car!"
When rich people are bitching and complaining...
Also, in re: the big Antique festival out in the middle of Texas. It takes about 1-2 hours to get there from places like Houston, San Antonio, Austin. I noticed crowds were "thinner" last weekend.
I suppose at $25-30 for a gasoline roundtrip, some folks said: "No mas."
@ahab
and this...
not a bad deal, their credit will suck for a while
I'm thinking they don't give a rats ass about what their CREDIT PROFILE looks like...
That's just a "marketing ploy" anyway (by the banks) to get peeps thinking they have to be a certain way... No different than saying "use this conditioner so your hair will be shiny & radiant"...
I think a good deal of people who have been thru the credit wringer will not be eager to jump back on... Those who DO get back on, are probably just scum who know they can beat the system...
The only one interested in CREDIT these days is the US (and other governments)... Who will continue to raise the limits on their "teaser rate/minimum monthly payment" BERNANKAMERICARD
@ahab
I went to "Clydes" last Sunday for brunch... Didn't really want to, but was cajoled into it...
It was PACKED...
CV-
Clydes has very good crab cakes, and they're local. .. both big pluses in my book
@Andy T
I suppose at $25-30 for a gasoline roundtrip, some folks said: "No mas."
Well don't worry - the TELEPROMPTER IN CHIEF is on TV right no doing his best Jimmy Carter and outlining how we're going to REDUCE our dependency on foreign oil...
I'm sure it will have something to do with buying Chevy Volts (or Bruce may be interested in the NEW PRIUS model with the "built in" nuclear fission reactor)...
But let me do the math on the "Volts" (getting to the fair)...
You said 1-2 hours... each way, driving time...
I'll call that a median of 3 hours (total driving), at a calculated speed of 60 miles per hour... equals 180 driving miles...
So with the "coal fired" VOLT range of about 30 miles (according to Consumer Reports)... Someone would only have to stop 6 times along the way for a full charge...
How many days does that fair run again?
@ahab
Actually - I like Clydes too (crabcakes there are among the best in the area)...
In fact - that's what I had to eat... A sort of crabcake eggs benedict...
re credit,
exactly! They don't care because they already said "fuck it!" when they gave up on the contract to pay back their loan
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Economists and investors worldwide will be paying extra close attention Thursday to a U.S. crop-planting forecast, looking for signs of relief from the tight food and fiber supplies now driving up prices from the grocery aisle to the clothes rack.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture report will show how many acres U.S. farmers intend to devote to corn, wheat, soybeans and cotton, commodities whose supply and price has future implications for apparel makers, food companies, meat producers and agriculture suppliers.
The "Prospective Plantings" report, released March 31 every year, is due out at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Thursday. The outlook will likely impact near-term trading in the commodities market until traders see how much crop farmers actually put in the soil this spring.
The report comes as agricultural commodities have soared over the last 12 months, led by an 82% pop in corn futures prices and a 142% jump in cotton. Along with rising energy costs, this has prompted many food and clothing companies to raise prices this year even as consumer spending is not back to pre-recession levels.
The Interim National Counsel's new military commander is Khalifa Hifter - "a former Libyan army colonel who spent nearly 20 years in Vienna, Virginia, not far from the Central Intelligence Agency in Langley."
http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MC31Ak02.html
Nostradamus Quatrain II.24 mentions "Hister." In the original typeface, the s is elongated and skinny, more like an l or an f.
Y'know, just sayin'.
@Bruce (12:33)
Don't worry... Clarence Beeks is on the case...
EOM has nothing on EOQ. Just sayin'
@gristle
I will outline an inherent problem with letter substitution...
JBTFD...JBTFR
OTOH...
Some things that appear (on surface) to be opposites - can often be the same...
OBAMA BUSH
"'Mabus' then will soon die, there will come
Of people and beasts a horrible rout:
Then suddenly one will see vengeance,
Hundred, hand, thirst, hunger when the comet will run"
Yeh, everyone's "hungry" in those apocalyptic quatrains. Sounds bullish for DBA.
@gristle
Eh... best 2 keep it simple...
Seeds & Mason Jars from your local Wal Mart or Home Depot...
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the $RUT just made a new high on the year...
And GGC is at another 52 week high...
Must be all those PVC tubes & couplings that CV bought from them to irrigate the plant beds & flush water from the fish tanks...
...or maybe it's just the acetone sales by people desperate to get better gas mileage...
Yeah R2k made a new high. Dow is close but not there yet. Nasdaq and S&P still have a little way to go.
Not everyday you get a real gap on the SPX.
@Amen
SLV is not at an all-time high yet... But a close here would be the highest CLOSING high...
Do you know anyone that is bearish on gold? Anecdotal information: yesterday at my eleven years old kid soccer game all the kids mom`s were excited because today someone that comes from San Antonio (we are in Mexico) is coming to buy all the gold jewerly they do not use any longer. So according to the mom in charge of coordinating this event the buyer is a very serious person and he pays very good prices. So, all this ladies that have no clue about gold prices ( or finances at all) were just talking about all those jewerly pieces that are outdated and they are willing to sale and make a huge profit. So it seems, there are no gold sellers in Texas anymore, so they have to come 700 km south to the border to gather more gold they can resell later in USA. It seems a big bubble to me.
Cacerolo
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=NLY&ty=c&ta=1&p=d
re: NLY, wasn't that thing trading near ~18?
if so, what's up with that Chart, from finviz?
ibid.
cv--
re:GGC
see..
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=GGC&ty=c&ta=0&p=m
niice~! Buy 'n Hold^2
AAIP
@Cacerolo
I suppose it depends on your POV...
It would seem to me (strictly based on your story)... That the "bubble" is in FIAT...
Meaning...
A whole group of ladies who are ANXIOUS and JOYFUL to get their hands on a bunch of paper FIAT notes...
versus
ONE PERSON - going out of his way to SELL them his FIAT paper for some junk gold...
@AAIP
...on GGC...
Hell... Look at the '06 high on that was up near $850...
Housing bubble or no, PVC piping & acetone are potentially valuable going forward...
at $38???
If nothing else, technically that charts looks like it could go to $100
http://tinyurl.com/6frmw9d
Treasury Sells $29 Billion In Bonds, Bringing Total Settled US Debt To 14.311 Trillion, More Than The Debt Ceiling
Now bear with us for a second: the most recently disclosed total debt was 14,211,567,662,931.23 as of March 28. This excludes the settlement of all of this week's auctions which amount to $35 + $35 + $29 billion (including today) or $99 billion. Adding the two amounts to $14,310,567,662,931.23. As a reminder the debt ceiling is $14,294,000,000,000.00. In other words, the total US debt just passed the debt limit - break out the Champagne! Granted there is a buffer of $52.2 billion between the total debt and the debt actually subject to the ceiling, meaning that America is not in default, yet. Therefore, the total debt subject to the limit assuming full settlement right now is $14,258,341,662,931. Which means the US is now $35.7 billion away from a bona fide breach of the debt ceiling. Yes, there are some caveats, and it is possible that there will be an accelerated redemption of bills over the next few days, pushing the total debt slightly lower, but readers get the idea.
Cacerolo,
this person: "..So according to the mom in charge of coordinating this event the buyer is a very serious person and he pays very good prices.."
is the Pimp/Herder..
these: "..So, all this ladies that have no clue about gold prices ( or finances at all) were just talking about all those jewerly pieces that are outdated and they are willing to sale and make a huge profit.."
are fixin' to be Sheared/ 'Ho'd out..
here: "..So it seems, there are no gold sellers in Texas anymore.."
no matter the Flock, all Sheep need time before the next shearing..
ibid.
..A whole group of ladies who are ANXIOUS and JOYFUL to get their hands on a bunch of paper FIAT notes...
"FIAT FEVER! CATCH IT~"
good point cv--..
ibid.
@Amen (2:09)
Does that mean TG will be getting a $25 "overdraft" notice from the BERNANKOFAMERICA?
Answers to Frequently Asked Questions on Bank Overdraft Fees and ...
This practice usually increases the number of times a customer will incur an overdraft fee, and thus increase the amount customers in overdraft fees. www.bank-overdraft.com/faq.htm
www.bank-overdraft.com/faq.htm - [cache] - Bing, Yahoo!
Banks Increase Overdraft Fees; How to Prevent Them
The New York Times is reporting that several banks have recently upped a host of fees. Everything from balance transfers to ATM withdrawals are costing www.outofdebtchristian.com/retirement/banks-increase-overdraft-fees-how-to-prevent-them
www.outofdebtchristian.com/.../banks-increase-overdraft-fees-how-to-prevent-them - [cache] - Bing, Yahoo!
BofA Suspends Overdraft Fee Increase - MarketWatch
Bank of America is suspending a previously announced hike to its overdraft fees , citing the " increase in unemployment.
www.marketwatch.com/story/bofa-suspends-overdraft-fee-increase-20094132159260 - [cache] - Yahoo!
Consumer Overdraft Fees Increase During Recession: First-Time ...
US Post Office OD Fees Are Higher Than Wall Street Banks CHICAGO--( BUSINESS WIRE )--The national median for overdraft (OD) fees on consumer checking accounts, debit ... www.businesswire.com/news/home/20090715005355/en/Consumer-Overdraft-Fees-Increase...
www.businesswire.com/...-Overdraft-Fees-Increase-Recession-First-Time-Phenomenon - [cache] - Bing, Yahoo!
http://search.yippy.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&v%3Aproject=clusty&query=overdraft+fees+increasing
U$D 25 would be the F&F Rate?
http://search.yippy.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&v%3Aproject=clusty&query=Friends+%26+Family+Rate
http://search.yippy.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&v%3Aproject=clusty&query=Cash+for+Gold+Parties+scam
more ~'on Topic'
ibid.
@Cacerolo
I made this link earlier... It's kind of up to "the minds eye" as to whether or not they see a BUBBLE...
http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/how%20and%20when%2003-01-2011.pdf
(page 5)
---
Keep in mind that the VERY PURPOSE of "fractional reserve banking" is to create debt and mild inflation...
So a central banking cartel doesn't mind allowing BUBBLES to form here and there (think equities & housing)...
The ONE BUBBLE that they would fight "tooth & nail" against would be PRECIOUS METALS price inflation (because it would likely cause people to REJECT fiat currencies - thus eliminating their franchize)...
The only way central banks let THAT Pandora out of the box is when THEY THEMSELVES are the largest holders of that...
Luckily for them, they've discovered that they can PRINT THEMSELVES all the fiat they want to buy up all the supply...
It was even easier over the past decade (while sheeps were looking the other way and getting themselves into debt)...
Now they only have to crash the system periodically (to make it look like like it's not engineered)... By the time the 'sheeps' react now, they won't be able to afford the ENTRY FEE to accumulate enough of a stash...
Thus, they will remain sheeps...
@Amen
Oh & of course we forgot to mention that the R2K is very close to going over its '07 highs...
As in "all time" highs...
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=AGCO&ty=c&ta=0&p=m
nearly 24x E
that's UFR..
ibid.
@Amen (2:09)
Well if the Treasury is conductingbond auction in amounts that EXCEED the "so called" debt ceiling...
Wouldn't that be UNCONSTITUTIONAL?
Or is it just another "Turbo Tax" error?
CV
They have a few ways to reduce debt before an auction. The Treasury is probably telling the MSM not to make a big deal out of it.
CV
You may be right short term and I am pretty sure you are long term. But in my experience, everytime a lot of outsiders start to enter a business field the bubble is in progress. The person who is going to buy the gold is another mom from San Antonio that she will resell for more fiat money. Maybe the final buyer knows what he is doing. If the moms were the buyers I would be shorting gold right now, but anyway it seems quite odd that gold buyers have to reclut all this outsiders to get their hands on gold. Besides I do not know a single gold bear. I still see many stock bears, treasury bears, etc but I just do not know any gold bear. Is everybody right this time?
When THE FED becomes "bullish" on gold, then I'll start to think we're in a bubble...
For a while there has been a lot of talk about the possibility that american corporations can repatriate funds with some kind of tax exemption. I have not seen almost any trader talk about this situation. For me it is a great time to repatriate funds: dollar is cheap against any currency, so the corporations would be selling local currency at the top and getting cheap dollars. What are your thoughts regarding this issue? The american government is almost in bankrupt so new money would be more than welcome. If this materialize could be very dollar positive and for stocks whose main market is USA. Any ideas? Who is bullish on the dollar?
Or... You can think of it another way...
Imagine a hurricane were bearing down on you...
You would be "bullish"
- bottled water
- food
- boards & nails
- generators & fuel
- pehaps some spare CASH as well
When would you LOSE your bullishness?
Answer:
When you had enough of a SUPPLY of each to hopefully weather the storm...
People, I think, see a storm coming...
Depending on what they LACK, so go their "bullish" ideas...
I'm thinking more people have more of what they'd call their "net assets" in cash, stocks, bank accounts, & 401Ks than anything else...
So their eyes are naturally going to nervously look around and take inventory of what they DON'T have...
If a storm WEREN'T coming, they'd happily stay in equities (thinking their 'assets' were safe)...
So, any 'bullishness' that one might see in commodities is due to the fact that they find themselves woefully unprepared (NOT because they're trying to PROFIT)...
Speculators then come along and blow it out of proportion...
So again, if you see the hurricane coming, and buy 2 bottles of water (do you then SELL them because the price goes up)...
No... You keep them for yourself until the storm passes...
Who is bullish on the dollar?
Prechter
CV
Usually people will not see a storm coming. Once the majority noticed is always too late.
Cacerolo
There's an article at Bloomberg where Geithner is stating that banks that have passed tests should not have to have "skin" in the game.
See http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-29/geithner-says-risk-retention-rules-important-step-for-housing.html
ROR
He was probably misquoted...
What he was TRYING to say was that:
"Banks that passed tests don't have any FORESKIN in the game"
There - fixed it!
CV
Careful or you'll have some of the commenters at ZH over here. Think of what group is known throughout history to not have foreskin.
ra -
oh, you must mean these guys?
72bat
You know what I meant. How they associate it with certain groups. But it's a practice that has been going on in even earlier societies.
ra -
yes, i did. trying to make light of something dark.
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