YEN (weekly info)-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=up (2 bars)
high= 1.24100
rev= 1.19030; mid= 1.21565
I wasn't looking at the last two weeks as a bearish harami because the first week was not a long candle. It appears I w may have been wrong as this week is forming a confirmation of the bearish harami. How long before the G7 intervenes again? Or have they done all they are capable of?
Aussie Dollar (weekly info)new high 1.0156
trend=up
high= 1.0156
rev= 0.9591; mid= 0.9874
Outside of the Swiss Franc is the Australian Dollar also becoming a safe haven? It's been in a tight range since Nov 2010 but now seems to be breaking out higher. Sorry DXY.
55 comments:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-29/cash-paying-vultures-feast-on-u-s-housing-as-mortgages-dry-up.html
"A record 33 percent of existing-home sales were made to cash buyers in February, when an annualized 4.88 million properties changed hands, the National Association of Realtors reported March 21. That compares with 15 percent of the 4.82 million annualized sales when the Chicago-based trade group started monthly tracking of such purchases in October 2008.
In Florida’s Broward County, where Theocles is based, deals with no mortgages made up 69 percent of sales in February, according to Southeast Florida Multiple Listing Service data."
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/29/business/29shrink.html?_r=2&ref=business
"With unemployment still high, companies in recent months have tried to camouflage price increases by selling their products in tiny and tinier packages. So far, the changes are most visible at the grocery store, where shoppers are paying the same amount, but getting less."
Bruce
I remember when sugar switched from a 5lb bag to a 4lb bag.
Andy says:
"it's interesting to understand the inner workings of some people's "brain waves."
sometimes, as in a train wreck, a person will gaze in the direction of that which is almost incomprehensible,
best to look away
Yen trading below its weekly 3LB mid. Calling G7. Calling G7. Emergency call on line 1.
after perusing previous threads, a question for CV:
What of your transformation?
It appears that in a short period of time you have developed a loathing for trading.
What event or seminal moment have I missed?
good morning.. just a note about silver thru this op ex.. it was anything but volatile! unless we are to see some fireworks today.. staying between 35-37 for seven days now.
Consumer confidence WTE and they turn on the buy programs.
AR @ 10:04.. low consumer confidence means more QE, laughing.. JBTFD.
karen
I was thinking that also. Any excuse to continue QE.
Market is determined to delay the inevitable.
60 minute Silver chart looks more "corrective" off the highs....
Looks like another high coming in the Silver market...
LOVE IT!
@ahab
It appears that in a short period of time you have developed a loathing for trading.
What event or seminal moment have I missed?
Yeah - It's basically true...
I basically "gave it up" after Jackson Hole (last August)...
I just don't really see the point anymore... I've tried to express this many times in the past 8 months or so (but I guess I'm a bad explainer)...
TRADERS want to say that a "market is a market"... I'll AGREE with that, but I think the "MARKET" that people are talking about these days (and those famous TRADERS [whether they be algos or humans] are all existing in a state of denial (because there's TOO MUCH TO LOSE for them personally on the day that it all falls apart)...
So that's why everyone runs to Bernanke, or whatever... Any "AUTHORITY FIGURE DU JOUR" that has the paper credibility to convince them that they should continue on pulling on the oxen cart...
So, (for ME anyway), I see no point in trading the "ticks" of that existence...
That's NOT TO DISCREDIT those who do... & I'm very confident that most of the people around here are much more highly equipped than the average joe to navigate the process...
But what then?
There are basically two roads...
One result is that the "masters" (I'm talking central bankers, politicians), manage to thread the needle and navigate through this mess...
The other result is that they don't...
I'm betting on the latter... So SINCE I'm betting on the latter, it doesn't make any sense for me to trade, because I'm only trading debt notes, of a failed system, which I'd have failed to monetize (into something USEFUL - like a copper pot to distill alcohol for the day that there's no more booze on the shelves)...
I've found that when things start to change, they change very fast... So I'm not confident that, BY TRADING, I can:
#1 Make the right trades in the first place
#2 Be able to REALIZE those profits at the cashiers window at the exact right time while the "system" might be crumbling
#3 Have the net result of both of the above keep me AHEAD of the tax obligation to those (or even a HIGHER tax rate going forward that nobody knows about yet)
#4 Being able to CONVERT those winnings to redeemable currency
#5 Find the same abundance & variety of ITEMS TO BUY at that moment in time as I do now
#6 Not be PRICED OUT (assuming I could find what I needed in the first place)...
In summary:
I'm PRACTICING to be able to live my everyday life (with hardly a blip), in a way that all this elaborate frameworks support now...
What's IRONIC to me is that all the "smart people" blogs that I know of... All are HIGHLY CRITICAL of the Fed, the system, yada yada...
Yet everyone, without hesitation, PLAYS THEIR GAME (the people they criticize), each and every day...
So if they REALLY TRULY BELIEVED that the system is corrupt and should be dismantled, then they ought to be FARMERS (not TRADERS)...
Instead, I've UNPLUGGED... (IOW - I practice what I preach)...
Ditto CL. It's fantastic when they run stops overnight.
I'm tempted to suggest that one just ignores whatever happens overnight...just wait for the "real" market to open up 930 EST.
@Amen @Andy
I finally figured it out and went into the BLOG SETTING and gave BOTH of you ADMIN status...
So REALLY - it's in your hands now...
I'm still listed as ADMIN (but I'm not going to do anything else - you can change me to AUTHOR for all I care)...
But literally - whatever you guys decide to do is fine with me... Change the color scheme, slogan, add tools, "monetize"...
I never did any of that (because I always think those things just JUNK UP a site)...
I'm the K.I.S.S type... (But it's your blog now - so do whatever you want)...
Cheers! CV
I'm thinking that, MAYBE, (as a show of force), one of you ought to do something simple like CHANGE THE COLOR SCHEME (even if it's not permanent)...
Kind of like a "I AM ZOD, KNEEL BEFORE ME" moment - lol...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKDFop0aqYQ
jk - I guess only drama queen CV thinks thoughts like that :-)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-29/no-one-cries-for-argentina-embracing-25-inflation-as-fernandez-leads-boom.html
No One Cries for Argentina Embracing 25% Inflation of Fernandez
"A decade after it defaulted on $95 billion of bonds following a four-year recession, Argentina is again witnessing an upsurge in inflation, Bloomberg Markets magazine reports in its May issue. While official numbers put the rate at about 11 percent, independent economists estimate that the number may be about two and a half times as high.
That would place Argentina second only to Hugo Chavez’s Venezuela, where the International Monetary Fund estimated in October that prices rose 33.3 percent last year, the highest in the world.
Accelerating Spending
Accelerating spending by President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner’s government is stoking prices, economists say. Outlays on everything from highway construction to pensions climbed 37 percent last year from 2009 -- and increased 39 percent in January of this year alone. Fernandez’s largesse is made possible in large part by the global commodities boom."
...Very interesting cautionary tale about inflation...this is the very early part...the hard part comes soon enough...
I like it simple. Too much extra clogs it up.
@Amen
Yup... But hell - come up with a slogan (I changed the slogan a half dozen times since the beginning)...
My latest offering?
TRADERS-ANONYMOUS
JBTFD
ror
http://en.mercopress.com/2011/03/24/argentine-economy-growing-strong-benefits-from-imports-restrictions
Argentine economy growing strong, benefits from imports’ restrictions
"He noted that higher prices for Argentine goods explained a good part of the increase in exports, while imports were generally sustained by greater volumes.
Argentina is working to protect local industry and the trade surplus. Officials expanded import permits this month to cover 50% more goods, sparking complaints from trading partners.
The trade surplus is one of the centrepieces of the current economic model, allowing the government to accumulate foreign currency reserves, which it uses to pay off debt."
...Obviously in this failed nation, they have decided to limit imports as a way of stimulating their domestic economy...
Good luck with survival, CV.
Just make sure you enjoy the living part.
Best,
-I
@I-Man
Thank you...
Actually - I'm totally convinced that everyone around here has the "living" part down pretty well...
I just happen to be the masochistic type (trying to figure out HOW TO DO IT with a handicap)...
Well - Here's me right here (the Black Knight)...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKhEw7nD9C4
Breakfast with Rosie (on QE3)
QE3 WILL COME BUT NOT AS EARLY AS MR. MARKET WOULD LIKE
Portfolio managers as a group are running their funds overweight equities by an average of 67% relative to their typical benchmarks. And polls show that one-third of them believe QE3 is coming this summer. We already know that this Bernanke-led Fed is willing to be extremely aggressive, but as we saw in 2010, the hurdle is high for quantitative easing. We need (i) signs of a double-dip, (ii) a stock market correction of at least 15%, and (iii) deflation, not inflation. How on earth will the Fed be able to do anything at all by then if headline inflation is running north of 4% and the other central banks of the world are either snuggling policy or moving in that direction ? unless the central bank really wants to trash the dollar. We are certainly not inflationists and still see deflation in credit, real wages and housing prices.
FWIW CV actually likes the "Jim Rickards" take on this:
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/3/27_Jim_Rickards.html
Which essentially makes the case that a QE3 can operate (at least for a modest period of time) without FORMALLY announcing a QE3...
At some point though, ENTROPY assets itself...
CV
I have reading this blog from the begining of it. I have learned a lot from all the bloggers. CV, you have put too much time and effort in this blog. I really appreciated it. Your vision of life is quite unique and you are one of a true thinker of your own. Very difficult in these modern days to find a genuine person as you. Maybe I am a little bit egoistic but I truly believe you should start a new blog : The Real Survival. It could be focus in the physical survival. You are already an expert in that subject and I believe many people would be very interested in Real Survival.
Thanks, Cacerolo.
As far as the Aussie dollar Amen, there was an article yesterday that rated Australia first worldwide as far as sustainable fiscal policy was concerned. I will try to find it..
http://m.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/daily-mix/a-middling-grade-for-canada-in-latest-economic-ranking/article1946588/?service=mobile
"The projected Top Five in 2010 include Sweden, Switzerland, Belgium, Australia and Norway. All get “A” grades. Also ahead of Canada with “B” grades are Norway, Denmark, Germany, the United States and Austria. Last on the list of 17 is Italy. In 2011, the Conference Board projects Australia will leapfrog Sweden to take the top spot on its list."
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogmar11/extrapolation3-11.html
Beware of extrapolating trends..
You might look at how KROO has performed...I did yesterday after reading the article although the one from the G and M is not the original banana...
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/11060383/1/aussie-dollar-enjoys-safe-haven-appeal.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA
"Investors who no longer view the Aussie dollar as a risky asset; but rather, a global safe-haven currency that also has high yields in a country with strict fiscal policy and high interest rates offered another form of support. This trend has gained momentum because traditional safe-haven assets such as gold remain expensive."
@Cacerolo
I actually registered SURVIVORCAPITAL.BLOGSPOT.COM a while back...
I haven't had time to fill it up yet...
Probably when the day comes (I'll start filling it with content)...
The problem is... When that day comes that it is, IN FACT, relevant... I'm not sure there will be an internet anymore...
ror
CV,
I'm still waiting for the tilapia farming post.
CV
I believe REAL SURVIVAL is already relevant. You have been preparing for several years and many people (me included) are just awakening. The problems in the system are becoming more evident every day but most people do not know how to start. A blog could be very useful in several ways.
Cacerolo
U.S. sells 5-yr debt at highest yield since April
1:08 pm ET 03/29/2011 - MarketWatch Pulse News Bullet
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Treasury Department sold $35 billion in 5-year notes on Tuesday at a yield of 2.26%, the highest level since last April and a touch more than traders expected. Bidders offered to buy 2.79 times the amount of debt sold, compared to an average of 2.76 times at the last four monthly sales of 5-year notes, all for the same amount. Indirect bidders, a group which includes foreign central banks, bought 42.4% of the auction, above the average of 37.9%. Direct bidders, a group which includes domestic money managers, purchased another 11.2%, compared to 10.8% on average. After the auction Treasury prices stayed down, with short- and intermediate-term notes extending the decline.
Thanks for the article Bruce.
Odd how the market has retraced back to the level where the sell off happened yesterday.
@RPH @Cacerolo
Both of you have to understand that I'm figuring this out as I go along...
The 'experimental' stage preceeds the 'publishing' one...
I still haven't figured out what I'm going to do with all these nickles...
I have to see what happens first... inflation or deflation... (I could either SPEND them, or slag bullets out of them - depending on the outcome)...
I'm HOPING that there is a DELAY in any kind of QE3 announcement (& commodity prices collapse - for awhile)...
In 2008 - They were the FIRST prices to recover (hit bottom in November 2008 - while the S&P hit bottom in March 2009)...
I'm guessing that will be the case again...
I'm going to be buying sheet rolls of copper & propane containers next time... Wasn't thinking along those lines back in 2008 (mostly just on the 'food & water' meme)...
The 'tilapia' are still on a high/low cycle (currently in a low cycle - which means just a few fish to be able to have a nursery)...
Getting it BIG means you need 82 degree water constantly... It's not worth the energy cost (at the moment to heat any scale operation of 20,000 gallons to serve the purpose)...
But I'm working on it...
These things go in cycles (depending on what is most 'cost efficient' at the time)...
This commodity price push (over the last 8 months) has put a few things on hold... I'm HOPING for a better entry point...
It's not unlike TRADING (only CV is dealing with PHYSICAL, not PAPER)...
IOW - I want to JBTFD...
But there haven't been any real dips...
Logic would say that one will come sooner or later though...
blogspot eating "really long posts"?
WTF was that move at 2pm ET?
AR, looks like we are going to get another one.
watch the aussie dollar.. shorts getting toasted.. i've no idea why that aussie-indices correlation works but it is there.
also euro erasing losses..
CV
Where I live, we face the same financial scenarios as in USA plus the security thread. So, when you think in Real Survival it becomes a little bit more complex. You can still buy some farmland at a good price but you do not know when the drug cartels will come and ask for your ranch. So, your survival project can become your last one.
Cacerolo
karen
Oops they did it again...
As soon as downward momentum starts to pick up there is massive buying sending the markets even higher. Bastids.
wtf? tried posting an excerpt from chris martenson interview 3 times. it showed up and then disappeared.
72bat
I'm not having that problem but then again I haven't posted a long post.
ah well, thanks anyway ra.
maybe the embedded link gave someone/thing heartburn
"Straight Talk with Catherine Austin Fitts: We Are Victims of A Financial Coup D'Etat"
@ http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/straight-talk-catherine-austin-fitts-we-are-victims-financial-coup-detat/51951
re: a survival blog
her response to question 6
"Straight Talk with Catherine Austin Fitts: We Are Victims of A Financial Coup D'Etat"
6. What advice do you have to offer the average American (e.g. NOT a deep-pocketed investor) who is concerned about our economic future and wants to preserve wealth and quality of life?
“Your time and attention count. Stop listening to or associating with people or institutions that have a vested interest in centralization. Start by turning off your TV. Shift your deposits, purchases, and donations to people and companies that you can trust.
“Protect your health. The food and water supply is slowly being controlled and poisoned. Taking steps to assure local sources of fresh food and water is essential for your health. So is educating yourself on steps you can take to detox your body and build your immune system. The rise of environmental and electromagnetic pollution calls for a level of effort to maintain physical energy and strength that was unthinkable a decade ago.
“Lower your overhead. Use your time to build as many skills as possible that can help you do more for yourself and barter with those around you.
“Invest in tangibles, including precious metals. Do now allow yourself to be drained by what I call the “slow burn.”
“Finally, build your understanding and ability to engage in spiritual warfare. The financial corruption is a symptom of a much deeper and very invasive moral and cultural problem. Organize your life to serve whom and what you love.”
there you go, bat! you got it.. i read it! thanks for your efforts ; )
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/macke-purple-crayon-watch-trendlines-p-crude-gold-20110329-045606-980.html
"The process is intentionally as simple as I can make it. I use a ruler and take either a fat-tipped pen or, yes, a purple crayon, line up the lowest ticks over a reasonable time frame (at least 6 months, preferably longer) and draw a line. I'm looking for a trendline that maximizes the number of "touches" along the trend, the more touches, the better defined the trend."
...Yes, the same Macke. But his trend lines are so simple even a Tennessee caveman can understand it...
"Charts take out the emotion. A chart doesn't pass judgment or make fun of you. A chart just tells you when the trend has turned against your position. Never fighting the trend is the first thing you learn in trader school. Someday gold's trend will turn lower. When it does, I'll sell."
http://money.cnn.com/2011/03/29/news/economy/michigan_jobless_benefits/index.htm
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Michigan has reduced unemployment benefits, with Gov. Rick Snyder signing into law a bill cutting the payouts by six weeks.
Snyder signed the bill late Monday, cutting extended benefits to workers to 20 weeks from 26 weeks.
...He signed it.
http://money.cnn.com/2011/03/25/news/economy/state_unemployment_benefits/index.htm?iid=EAL
"Some states, such as Michigan, Florida and Arkansas, are debating reducing the number of weeks that the jobless can collect state unemployment. Others, including Indiana, want to limit the number of people eligible for benefits."
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42321370
"More Americans expect their salaries to be cut soon, reversing a steady decline in the number of workers who fear pay cuts, according to a March survey. Adding insult to injury, those same consumers expect to take a bigger hit on expenses because of rising inflation.
The percentage of Americans who expect a decrease in their income over the next six months ticked back higher to 15.3 percent in March, up from 13 percent in February, which had been the best reading of wage confidence since 2008, according to fresh survey data from the Conference Board."
...Last bubba of the day in a minute...gorgeous outside, heading out to put in my miles...
Ain't this bull market wonderful? Karen, bought a little more UPRO yesterday...I am joining the Jeff Macke attacke...I guess.
So that moves them off the states nip and onto the federal nip even sooner. Sheesh.
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