Weekend Edition - Week 11 NCAA Picks & Week 10 NFL Picks

CV's PICKS - 2010 YTD Totals (all "ATS" [against the spread])

2010 NCAA Picks (aggregate): 35-26-2

2010 NCAA (unit picks differential): +1

NCAA 2010 Wager Total: (-$120)* (bad week last week, do as I "say" not as I do - lol)

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NFL Picks (aggregate): 65-57-5

NFL (unit picks differential): +15

NFL 2010 Wager Total: (+1,230)

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WEEK 11 NCAA PICKS (pick in BOLD CAPS)

Pittsburgh at CONNECTICUT (+5) - 1 unit (from Thursday Night)

Connecticut 30 - Pitt 28 - (+100) - Correct

BOISE STATE (-34.5) at Idaho - 1 unit

Boise State 52 - Idaho 14 (+$100) - Correct

San Diego State at TCU (-27) - 2 units
TCU 40 - SDSU 35 (-$220) - Incorrect

MARYLAND (-2.5) at Virginia - 2 units
Maryland 42 Virginia 23 (+$200) - Corrrect

IOWA STATE (-2.5) at Colorado - 2 units
Colorado 34 - Iowa State 14 (-$220) - Incorrect

Additional games of note (no "unit" plays) - [results] Green = correct/Red = incorrect: CV would favor: West Virginia, Penn State, Miami Hurricanes, Wisconsin, Clemson, Nebrasksa, Notre Dame, Navy, Cal

Gameday thoughts here...A few "multi-unit" picks on the board (multi-unit is usually 2-3 on NCAA instead of 5-10 for NFL)... I don't like betting on acne ridden kids who were just at their senior proms a few months ago... These multi-units are more a reflection of having gone 2-0 during the week (and being BLANK-O'ed last weekend)... I'm trying to get some momentum going (as my aggregate pick total for NCAA for the year is still good, but my unit plays dipped in to the red for the first time all year)... Actually though, with the two weekday games, I'm back up...

I'm still riding Boise State & TCU until the NCAA decides that bowl games & BCS standings are bullsh**... But, if you have to play THEIR game, it's also a good time of the year to start looking at "bowl eligible" teams (who are playing just a little harder)... You need 6 wins to be qualified for a bowl (which means $$ for the school if they get in one - even if it's just called the "weed eater", the "pizza pizza", or the "muffler" bowl [sponsors])... Frankly - Nowadays EVERYTHING should just be called the US TAXPAYER bowl until it's called the "I'M DEFAULTING IN MY SOVEREIGN DEBT BOWL"

Results:

Week 11 NCAA Picks (ATS): 9-5-0

Week 11 unit pick differential: Even

Week 11 wager total: (-$40)

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NFL Preview: Game Write-up for NFL to be posted before Sunday kickoff
Week10 Injury Report (for FANTASY PLAYERS):

WEEK 10 NFL

BYE WEEK: (Oakland, San Diego, New Orleans, Green Bay)

THURSDAY GAME

 Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons

Line: Falcons by 1

Game write-up was in Thurdsay comment section... When I get done the chores at the farm (bailing the hay, stacking the wood, closing the pool, stocking the cellar, manuring the crop beds) I'll dig it up and paste it here because I know all you readers are too lazy to do 3 clicks... :-)

CV took: Falcons for (0 units)
Falcons 26 - Ravens 20

EARLY GAMES

 Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (1:00 EST)

Line: Colts by 7

Peyton Manning is working with nothing this year (but still getting it done)... The INDY defense is 2nd to last in the NFL in rushing defense, so, despite what many fantasy owners "hoped' would be better production from Cedric Benson, they shouldn't sit him in this game...

Frankly, this has the potential to be a yawner... All Indy wants to do is get "wins" (style points don't matter)... Lucas Oil stadium can get hopped up when it's an important game, but all you may hear are crickets here... That means Carson Palmer (who finally awoke from the dead last week and threw some pretty damn accurate passes), might be able to get the ignals called...

The Colts have to play the Patriots & Steelers in successive weeks after this, so they might be looking a little ahead... I'm taking the BENGALS for (5 units)...

 Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (1:00 EST)

Line: Jaguars by 1.5

I love THE PUBLIC... All you usually need to do is watch how they react to things to figure out what teams to play, or what teams to avoid each week... Now, there are never any GUARANTEES 9because footballs are shaped funny and bounce in weird ways... But the public "loved" the Texans after their week #1 vs. the Colts... Now? They've dropped them because they've lost 2 straight... I'd remind them that the two they just lost were against the same division rival Colts (on the road)... Then a home loss against a desperate Chargers team (that actually leads the league in many statistical categories)...

I think the Jaguars are kind of a farce... They're doing better than I thought they would, but I think they'[re very lucky to have the record they do... The public looks at stats, and they saw David Garrard light up the Cowboys a few weeks ago... They're looking at the Houston #31 ranked pass defense and are probably thinking the Jags put up 30 points here...

Maybe so... But in that case, I'm still taking the points because I think the Texans put up 31... TEXANS for (5 units)... 

 Tennessee Flaming Thumbtacks at Miami Dolphins (1:00 EST)

Line: Thumbtacks by 1.5

So I guess this is Randy Moss (with his 3rd team of the year)... I can honestly say, I'm interested in this game to see how RM stretches the field for Chris Johnson...

Lost in all of that will be the fact that Chad Pennington is back in at QB (replacing Chad Henne who has tossed 9 picks in the last 3 games)... Miami needs to show it can win against good teams (and they are 0-4 at home this year (which is the reason they're home dogs)... They sent CB Nate Allen packing this week (who was picked up by the Houston Texans)... CB Vontae Davis has held Randy Moss to no catches in the last 3 games (while RM was with the Patriots)...

I really don't know how to handicap this game... The line seems fair, and the public is on the Titans, so I'll go with the DOLPHINS for (0 units)...

 Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (1:00 EST)

Line : Vikings by 1

This is probably game 2 of the "will chilly get fired" saga... I'm going to come right out and say that I don't really like the Vikings (as a team)... They're just like the Cowboys in that they have a lot of talent, but are underachievers...

With their backs up against the wall here (the season is not TOTALLY lost yet), they still have a chance to prove something... One head scratcher is the fact that the defense is not performing even close to what people expected... They were near the bottom in sacks as of a week ago, and were middle of the pack in rushing defense (a category they ststistically have dominated over the years)... They started to get it together against the inept Cardinals last week, and might be able to carry some of that momentum through into this game by terrorizing Jay Cutler...

It's really hard to go against the Bears at home, but I'm going to side with the VIKINGS on a hunch (0 units)...

 Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills (1:00 EST)

Line: Bills by 3

Detroit has to be feeling disrespected by being made 3 point dogs to a winless team... The spread suggests that on a neutral field, the teams are about even... Matthew Stafford is out, again, for the Lions (so maybe that has something to do with it), but frankly, his substitute Shaun Hill is a capable backup that is not prone to many mistakes...

Where the Lions struggle is winning on the road... They have not won a road game in the NFL in more than 3 years... That's probably where this line comes in... In addition, you are usually rewarded when you take winless teams and the points... Trouble is, you're LAYING points here...

So I don't know what to do... The smart play is to take the Bills, but I'l going to side with the LIONS just for the heck of it... If the Bills can manage to lose again (and stay winless), they'll be a great pick-up next week... LIONS for (0 units)...

 New York Jets at Cleveland Browns (1:00 EST)

Line: Jets by 3

Speaking, of disrespect, Colt McCoy, fell way behind Sam Bradford & Jimmy Clausen in last years draft... Nobody expected him to do much in the NFL... But when both Jake Delhomme & Seneca Wallace went down with injuries, McCoy has been thrust in to the starting role... How has he responded...

Well, he lost to the Steelers on the road, BEAT the Saints on the road, and trounced the Patriots at home last week... Now wait a minute, you can't credit McCoy for those wins... The defense and other aspects (like Peyton Hillis), have really stepped up... But at least McCoy is playing smart, and not making many mistakes... It's a matter of time before a rookie DOES, in fact, make a mistake, and the jets are a defense who are likely to force that issue...

I'll take the JETS here (but by the slimmest of margins) and go (0 units)... If McCoy beats Rex Ryan & company, I'll build a statue for him (made out of paper mache' of course)...

Homer Jones - first everMonday Night Football telecast

 Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1:00 EST)

Line: Bucs by 7

The Bucs have been playing in "thrillers" week after week... Last week they lost a chance to win (on the goal line) to the division leading Falcons)... Remember in college how you always used to get a cold or the flu the week after final exams (and the all-nighters)... That's the spot the Bucs probably find themselves in right now...

Carolina has had one of the most unproductive offenses in the NFL this year... Largely due to the fact that left tackle Jeff Otah has been out for the year... Add to that Jonathan Stewart & DeAngelo Williams with injuries, Steve Smith in & out of the lineup, and a musical QB situation...

I'm willing to take a shot with them this week (off a bye week)... Things may have finally sunk in and they can just relax, play football, and play a spoiler role... PANTHERS for (4 units)...  

LATE GAMES
(game writeups before 4pm kickoff)

 Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (4:05 EST)

Line: Chiefs by 1

CV leaning towards: low unit play on CHIEFS - unless, of course, Denver goes with the "throwback" attire...

I have a lot of "calls" to make on these afternoon games, but I also have a lot of CHORES to do (trying to take advantage of what might be the last unseasonably mild weekend of weather... So SORRY... I'm just going to throw out some "unit play" picks (with no game write-ups)...

I'll go with the CHIEFS for (1 unit) here...

 St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers (4:15)

Line: 49ers by 4

CV will take the RAMS for (1 unit)...

 Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (4:15)

Line: Cardinals by 3

CV will take the SEAHAWKS for (0 units)...

 Dallas Cowboys at New York Football Giants (4:15)

Line: G-Men by 13.5

CV will take the COWBOYS for (0 units)...


SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
I'll try to get the chores done and have a game write-up here... (Note: it could be a high unit play)...

 New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (8:20 EST)

Line: Steelers by 4.5
CV leaning towards: high unit play on PATRIOTS

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

 Philadelphia Dog Killers at Washington Redskins (8:35 EST)

Line: Dog Killers by 3
CV leaning towards: low unit play on Dog Killers

RESULTS:

Week 10 NFL Picks (ATS): 10-4-0
Week 10 NFL unit pick differential: +7
Week 10 NFL wager total: (+$510)