Yesterday was an interesting day... It'll hopefully keep your attention easier if I just "bullet point" events rather than provide narrative (at least in the beginning)...
- We had a serious break in PM Markets, (ostensibly on news of upping silver margin requirements)...
- Obama
- And this... my favorite... Missles being launched from under the Pacific Ocean, 35 miles off the coast of Los Angeles, under the noses of the US Naval Fleet... & neither NORAD, the DoD, nor anybody can offer any explanation as to whose they were, or where they came from...
That last one had me laughing into the night... So much so, that I'd considered making todays thread simply about the top 20 "explanations"... The BEST of the BUNCH goes to Marla Singer (from Zero Hedge), who, with no comment... Summed everything up perfectly... (hat tip: Marla Singer/Zero Hedge)
It's probably all we can do to laugh and poke fun at such things (and yours truly does that ALL THE TIME)... But by the same token... I read a comment like this and realize that I'd BETTER DAMN WELL take some things seriously and take whatever steps I may as an individual...
COMMENT FROM THREAD
"A missile pops out of the water in US Territory near one of the most densely populated areas on the country in an earthquake region and we get half ass answers that it was no big deal and not a threat?
They need to take this shit seriously and convey to everyone that they take this shit seriously. Fucking Balloon Boy was given a more serious response than this..."
But what does anyone expect? Preparedness? The BOY SCOUTS motto is "be prepared"... Our effing POTUS is someone who probably understands the concept of "preparation" about as well as Antoine Dodson... &, at this summers Boy Scout National Jamboree was "booed" as his image came on the screen to deliver an address... He didn't happen to have the time (as other Presidents have done), to put that appointment on his busy calendar...
So instead, we're left with our own conjecture as to what it might have been (and here's the best we can do with all our blazing technological superiority that we need to spend trillions more on)...
I like the fact that on this blog everyone talks tape, and tries to understand TECHNICAL ANALYSIS in looking at market movements... When this blog started it was called "traders-anonymous" (and still has that URL), but I've long since changed to SURVIVOR CAPITAL... The reason being, is that I believe that if you're a "trader" (in the markets), you're seeing the itty bitty dew drop, on the fern leaf, at the bottom of the forest floor, under the huge overhead canopy, of the Amazon Rainforest...
So while it's great that everyone here is a trader, and understands all the gears of the Swiss Watch so well, it WOULD BE SAD, in application... If "real life" occurrences were to disrupt anyones ability to do good work... Unfortunately, you may have to perform that brain surgery in a hurricane on a ship at sea...
The truth is... We have an inept government, and a corrupt banking system... Reflected by this hilarious comment (on the missile thread)...
by centerline
on Tue, 11/09/2010 - 16:32
#713563
"Ben returning to his home planet now that ours is set for self-destruct?"
Again... Good for a laugh... But the question remains...
Why is the whole world just a sound byte? Moreover - Why are people like myself "ridiculed" for the QUAINT preparations that I suggest (on a different level of "prepare")... FOR FREE...
Is everyone REALLY that confident? Nothing bad could ever REALLY happen? And if it does... Why do you think that it will only unravel in an orderly way? That you have time? That there will be NO CHAOS in the process of 350,000,000 Americans, who are woefully unprepared for any disruption of service whatsover, to find themselves "needing" supplies (if only to manage a disruption that might only last a few days, or weeks)...
Like... um... Katrina... (oh - well - that was only something like .0000000001% of GDP... so nothing bad actually happened there... did it?)... There were no murders, no looting, no shortage of supplies, the police didn't abandon the area, law & order was in place, people weren't shooting at rescue helicopters, the GOVERNMENT response was adequate... Move along... Nothing to see... .00000000001% of GDP was all it was... Not worth noting...
Hey... Don't listen to CV... Move on to all the other "smart" people out there... Listen to their POV's instead... Actually - I'm quite serious when I say that... Because it appears to me that even Ritzy is "getting with the program" a little... (Hat tip BR... & a good start... but now let's work on some of those Boy Scouting skills... At minimum, it'll help you to be able to clean barnacles off your yacht)...
Kiss Your Assets Goodbye If Certainty Reigns: Barry Ritholtz
It's certain that our POTUS has no clue... Ask yourself about the concept that our "Commander in Chief" is a NOBEL PEACE PRIZE winner... I'll get hate mail for typing that because, as with 90% of what I write, people will INTERPRET the statement incorrectly and peg me as a war monger (which is 180% from the truth)... As with most things that CV says... It would take more than the gifted "2 seconds" of consideration for anyone to understand any metaphors that I try and seed your minds with...
And as for "metaphors"?... Well - this one might be apt to conclude this thread with...
November 10, 1975
"That good shippin' true was a bone to be chewed
when the gales of November came early..."
"Does anyone know where the love of God goes
When the waves turn the minutes to hours..."
They might have split up
Or they might have capsized
They may have broke deep & took water
But all that remains
Are the faces & the names
240 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 1 – 200 of 240 Newer› Newest»@DL
I want to apologize for the comment I made to you yesterday...
I certaintly DON'T think you're an imbecile... And I appreciate the comments that you've graced threads with over time on this blog...
It so happens (as might be evidenced in the metaphorical references that I make in this thread), that I hold very closely to the idea that people are VERY UNPREPARED for things that might happen...
I'm not saying that things WILL happen... Just MIGHT... And I'm simply suggesting that if they do, the process will be A LOT MORE UNRULY than they expect...
Think of it another way...
People buy car insurance, they buy homeowners insurance, they buy life insurance...
What is the "probability" that they're going to wreck their car, have their house burn down, or get killed ad hoc?
Remote, right?
Well... Why bother with the insurance then?
Yet they can't see clear to have a jar of peanut butter in the pantry?
I'm not exaggerating as much as anyone imagines...
The ironic thing is... too... An insurance premium is basically a "OPTIONS PUT" (against disaster)... If you don't wreck your car, have your house burn down, or die... Then your PUT PREMIUM expires WORTHLESS...
In fact... In Shahira Law, insurance is forbidden (as it's considered "gambling")... That's another beef that Americans should have against OBAMACARE... Because... Long (or mid) into the future, Islamic populations (in America), will band together and ask for EXCLUSIONS to fit with their beliefs... These "rights" are already being granted in places like Detroit, Oklahoma, and other places... It basically goes AGAINST separation of church & state (as provided for in the constitution)...
In any case... I'm mixing subjects here... But the point is... Americans are really CLUELESS...
---
I don't think YOU are clueless... But when I try and make an aggregate point (on the subject of PREPARATION - as I devote much typing to)... Then get a comment like... ".000000001% of GDP"... it sends me off the rails...
I'll give you the benefit of the doubt here (and blame myself for not drawing a more specific reference to my metaphor)... But I'll ask you to MEET ME IN THE MIDDLE a bit more by considering some points deeper than just the SKIM function...
So... again... I apologize...
And as for your comment "You are just like Ritholtz"... I'd actually agree with that in a sense that I'll use the BULLY PULPIT every once in a while to get a point across... I've devoted enough unpaid man hours in to the project to have established that right...
So in the end... I'm happy to endure your accusations, but I'll continue to defend my POV...
CV,
A good trader once said something along the lines:
"A man will spend more time looking into the purchase a medium priced car than he will putting half his life savings at risk in a stock"
he made this observation while he practiced his trade nearly 100 years ago
Also, I'm going to point it out, since you do it to me every time I do what you did this morning (which is to bring up something that was already discussed here previously) but that BR post, we've been stating the same thing here for many months, that anyone trotting out the "markets don't like uncertainty" line is not worth listening to, it's a moronic comment to the extreme.
but yeah, I really liked BR's post there, good stuff.
nice summary from Cobra:
http://lh4.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/TNoH9i2DuEI/AAAAAAAAJGc/2RIRnL4D3HI/s1600-h/SPYShortTerm%5B2%5D.png
@McF
This... From BR's post...
"Uncertainty drives the market’s price-discovery mechanism. Investing requires there to be differences of opinion. When there is broad agreement as to an asset’s fair value, trading volume falls. Without any uncertainty, who would take the opposite side of your trade?
If somebody accepts that to make sense... Which I do...
Then why all the ridicule that gets hurled at CV everyday simply because I have... In a practical sense of everyday life... Taken out a PUT OPTION on the notion that if something bad ever happens that the government or central bank system will NOT be on hand to see things run as smoothly as everyone expects?
I suppose I'm the 1% minority here... The ROW are the 99% majority...
Uncle Benny and Uncle Barry will be there for them when they need it most... I don't need either one of them...
@McF
On that "Cobra" link...
It's funny they mentioned ENGULFING candles...
As you know, I like to watch $vix.x candles... Last week produced an ENGULFING candle on the VIX...(weekly candle)
Previously, I'd mostly watched the BB's & "under 30 and under 20" levels for clues there...
There starts weren't TOTALLY lining up (yet), on that so I I suppose my mind got caught up on other aspects...
Tracing back, there were several instances of ENGULFING WEEKLY candles to signal changes on the vix (if even only temporary market corrections)...
@McF
... and if you didn't catch mt post on the other thread...
IYR... yesterday... See 60 minute candles for having most visual effect...
I love that Lombardi sound byte- exactly my sentiments when things don't play out the way I thought they would in my head
Looks like I missed some drama here
Ben -- I'd never seen that consumerist blog before. The articles there are hysterical! Dissapointed though that the "meat munchkins" are wrapped in pancake. DD is missing out on the carb phobes with that decision!
Gold's drop yesterday wasn't a one day wonder.
CV,
8:24,
I dont' know why people give you a hard time about the lifestyle you've chosen, I think it's great personally. As I said before, if nothing ever happens, it's not like your worse off. Let people think and say whatever they want. Who gives a shit what they think.
@jennifer,
yeah, those are likely to be pretty carbriffic, but I want to try them prettay bad.
also, yeah on that Cobra link, figured I'd throw it up as I think karen mentioned something about engulfings in the thread yesterday, maybe it was Ra, I was all over the place yesterday afternoon so it's a little fuzzy.
b22-
fwiw- I think CV is smarter than all of us-
and he has the best of both worlds- the place in Bethesda (I think- might be Columbia?) very wealthy high brow area- and the place at Harper's Ferry at the confluence of the Shenandoah and the Potomac Rivers- beautiful area- I've hiked it- so I know
Speaking of being "fuzzy"...
Perhaps nobody looked very hard at that graphic that Marla Singer put up on AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT IDENTIFICATIONS...
Everything is identified as... WEATHER BALLOON...
Except for the weather balloon itself which is identified SWAMP GAS...
I was ROTF when I saw that...
and the icons themselves are hysterical...
- spy planes
- bombers
- icbm's
- sputnik
- batman
- fighter jets
- ufo's
- starship enteprise
- comsats
- stealth bomber
They're missing CV (the unabomber)...
hey,,, a greenshoot!?
Fewer people requested unemployment benefits last week, a positive sign that the job market could be improving. The four-week average of claims has dropped to its lowest level since September 2008, just before the financial crisis intensified.
Here are the states with the biggest changes in claims, and some of the reasons. The state data is for the week ended Oct. 30, one week behind the national figures:
___
States with the biggest drops in claims:
Florida: Down 3,450, due to fewer layoffs in construction, trade and services
South Carolina: Down 2,401, due to fewer layoffs in manufacturing
___
States with the largest increases:
California: Up 6,387, due to layoffs in services
Kentucky: Up 2,901, due to layoffs in manufacturing
Wisconsin: Up 2,644, no reason given
Oregon: Up 2,296, no reason given
Indiana: Up 1,920, due to layoffs in the auto and manufacturing industries
Washington: Up 1,417, no reason given
Ohio: Up 1,309, due to layoffs in the auto and metal industries
Good morning!! Appreciated your morning audibles, Chet, and well stated first comment. : )
Yeah.. that was me on the engulfings.. now i'll check that cobra link.. back soon!
PS.. is there a war brewing.. uup up and crude up?
bearish engulfing was an understatement on the USO candle yesterday.. it was TOTAL engulfment..
note JNK.. if we want to get a hint of risk aversion.. vxx flat.. and FXE breakdown !!! (jumping for joy on that one)
can uup better 22.60 (for fourth time since falling under on first tading day of October??)
IYR bounce (60 minutes candles) not so much versus yesterday...
It's not even making it back to the GAP it closed (and exceeded) on the way down yesterday...
Going back about 10 weeks... It looks like a HEAD... detached from shoulders sloping down...
Maybe some more PAINT it needs on the right shoulder...
But it's not a technical picture that inspires much CON fidence...
The first six 5-min candles on the SPX brings a tear to my eye. It's so beautiful.
Now watch my tears get wiped away when the algos attack.
$cdw another Total Engulfment yesterday.. but today???
this market CERTAINLY s*cks.. how's that..
I gotta hand it to BR...
It seems that whenever something of his gets published that has (what could be construed as a bearish comment)...
Like when he "went to cash" before FLASH crash...
Things seem to happen...
Keep talking BR... keep talking!
Little one is sick. Trading and pediatrician visits don't mix. Good luck everyone! I'm hoping my Nov puts get a little CPR today.
DXY closed above its weekly 3LB mid (77.32) yesterday and is quickly approaching its weekly 3LB reversal (78.09). Dum-da-da-dum.
Yesterday, CV was saying "catfood bitchez"
Today, CV is saying "burlap sacks bitchez"
First Silver, Now Cotton: ICE Increases Cotton Initial And Maintenance Margins
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/first-silver-now-cotton-ice-increases-cotton-initial-and-maintenance-margins
@karen
I'll bet Bergdorf Goodman already has some nice designer "burlap sack" outfits ready to roll out for the Spring 2011 collection... :-)
derelict?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zkOBAEa9wn8
US Name Buying Latest Dip
By Jamie Coleman || November 10, 2010 at 15:17 GMT
A powerful US investment bank seen by many as the source of all evil in the modern world has boosted EUR/USD back above 1.3700 briefly from the 1.3670 level. 1.3735/40 is near-term resistance.
"Fewer people requested unemployment benefits last week, a positive sign that the job market could be improving."
Permit me to make a few observations here being a nattering nabob of negativity and all:
1. The jobs number last friday was touted as good, it was not, but to figure this out one needed to look past the headline, a little more on this below, mainly to boost my number of points made.
2. Is today's number good or less bad? There is a difference....right?
3. the number was STILL 435k, so tell me, in which "recovery" more than 12 months after the recession ended were we still shedding jobs like that? Further, what do we need job growth to be in order to dent the unemployment rate, or would we just prefer to shrink the labor pool in order to lower the nonsense U-3 calculation?
4. Doesn't anyone look at that jobs report Friday with a crooked eye? Consider from Rosie Monday:
The raw data showed that 919,000 payrolls were somehow created in October, which therefore would have made this the second strongest October in the last 11 years — in October 2009, the tally in the raw nonfarm payroll data was 646,000 even though the economy then was accelerating at a 5% annual rate. That 919,000 not seasonally adjusted surge in October far surpassed what we saw at the peak of the cycle in 2007 (740,000 jobs) as well as the boom periods of 2006 (698,000) and 2005 (727,000). The data bear no resemblance to the reality of an economy barely growing at all in real per capita terms.
Glenn Neely is so hot right now his charts are burning my eyes. Damn!
@ahab
lol... Derelict!
You might have missed clicking on the YOU TUBE I had in the thread... (on the "missle")...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5w_DqhpMuFY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QizsJQNIKhc
b22- no doubt- so hot that I think I am taking crazy pills-
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4DVAsmrwdtQ
@McF
Let's not forget that there have been about 3 dozen straight revisions HIGHER to the jobless number...
But never forget... They're from the government... and they're here to help!
Bought some OTM calls on UUP just now using a very small amount of money. Used an even smaller amount of money to buy farther OTM puts on SLW yesterday. Dated for January. Seem cheap. The SLW are already working out nicely, but small is small. I am holding on. All this is mostly for the record, but while we're being honest I got stopped out of my previous short on SPY, just like you said I would Ben. Not that I'm holding it against you...
interim report from EWI today, i won't say in relation to what but this line is just really funny:
"This is a bit like stepping in front of a bus, so apologies in advance if this recommendation does not work out."
priceless
CV my friend-
that is a classic clip! Caught the picture but not the link-
gotta roll- all have a good day
It's funny watching TICKS as we approach the early morning low. TICKS skyrocket when we are looking to break below 1205. It's as if someone doesn't want to take out the low this early in the trading day.
zoolander, funny movie, some funny ones:
how can you expect to teach kids to learn to read if they can't fit inside the building.
and
I wasn't like every other kid, you know, who dreams about being an astronaut, I was always more interested in what bark was made out of on a tree. Richard Gere's a real hero of mine. Sting. Sting would be another person who's a hero. The music he's created over the years, I don't really listen to it, but the fact that he's making it, I respect that. I care desperately about what I do. Do I know what product I'm selling? No. Do I know what I'm doing today? No. But I'm here, and I'm gonna give it my best shot.
spoon,
good luck man, I've been stopped out of plenty this year, silver anyone? ugh.
@McF
I sent you an e-mail...
b22-
dude- I'm laughing my ass off- that scene is playing in my mind-
what bark is made of- laugh the fuck out loud-
now I really gotta roll!
I'm not an ambi-turner
or
Gasoline Fight!
one more thing-
that dude who is one of Zoolander's modeling roommates who says "ex-squeeze-me- have you ever heard of styling gel?"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47Rf7UWqW-c
that dude plays the bad ass vampire Eric in True Blood-
now I'm off to the daily grind
i figure crude is up on drop in unemployment claims..
why did it have to break its correlation with the indices now??
oh my, i shouldn't have looked.. up .52%, .51%, .49%
looked zoolander!! cult movie : )
@DL
As I quaintly suggested earlier...
Sometimes people aren't in the mood to take things in orderly way...
Angry Student Protesters Storm Tory HQ In London
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/angry-student-protesters-storm-tory-hq-london
Substitute HUNGRY for ANGRY - and, well, you basically get the idea...
Wall Street Takes $4 Billion From Taxpayers as Swaps Backfire
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a5OZb5VE98ac
check the daily $tyx candle.. !!
@karen (11:03)
Says Rosie...
"Bonds are supposedly the transmission mechanism for the Fed to deliver its QE-induced wealth effect.
Well, at yesterday’s close of 2.66% on the 10-year Treasury note, it is now all the way back to where it was when Bernanke first hinted at QE2 back at Jackson Hole on August 27th.
The yield on the 5-year Treasury note soared 13bps to 1.25% yesterday and that is where the Fed is supposedly doing the most buying.
If you’re Ben Bernanke, something is backfiring..."
CV.. pull up the SPY on a one year weekly.. compare the two runs, candles, rsi, macd.. Feb - April and Aug - Nov..
we couldn't possibly correct, could we? and what i want to know.. if this market is in a new bull run.. (well, spx never regained the fame).. Why did we make a new low in June? beating the Feb low? It held in May but a few cents.. but broke down to 100.59 in June.
More Rosie:
"We are long-term bond bulls but some technical damage has been done. It looks like a complete reversal can take the 10-year note yield to 3%.
The long bond reached a key technical juncture yesterday breaking above the 200-day moving average, at 4.24%, which could take the long bond to a 4.6-4.8% and the stock market will have a good dose of trouble with that.
But what a buying opportunity that would be for the long end of the curve, which is cheap, cheap, cheap, especially relative to where the cost of carry is.
Gold turned in a stunning reversal — is that a reflationary signpost? The yellow metal got as high as $1,424.60/oz, was as low as $1,382.80/oz, and closed at $1,392.90/oz.
So, the long bond broke the 200 day m.a., gold finished the day below $1,400/oz and the S&P 500 is now back below the April highs.
Mr. Cramer — if this was a failed re-test accomplished by an exhaustion rally last week, then sorry, with any follow through to this reversal, the charts are not your friend at all.
As we said last week, the markets are not trading on fundamentals. They are trading off the U.S. dollar. Yesterday may have marked a shift — not that anything is happening in the U.S.A. to cause any excitement, but rather, the fiscal problems in Europe are back on the front burner."
CV.. but if you're us, something is finally working : )
@karen
I've been saying for 2 straight months now that the FOCUS has been wrong...
You're focusing on the 2010 lows...
I've been saying all along to focus on the HIGHS... I've been saying that this is a RE-RUN of 2007...
In 2007, you had highs... Then you had marginally higher highs in the fall (after the FED started with it's rate cutting cycle after the Cramer rant in August 2007)...
What happened? The market topped in October 2007... Did the banks follow?
I'll let you do the investigative work on that... Are the banks following here? Are they higher than the April 2010 highs (like the rest of the market is)?
I'll let you do the investigative work there too...
2007...2007...2007...2007... I've been saying it since Jackson Hole (while everyone else was talking about beach balls)... I'm just the unabomber though...
@karen (11:15)
It would be NICE to make some money off of something that finally made sense (for a change)...
I'm getting tired of buying bags of rice...
CV.. but we didn't have the FED offering to MONETIZE DEBT for real back then.
Don't choke when reading !!
Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) -- The world’s largest economy will strengthen through next year as the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented actions help underpin consumer and business confidence, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aMA8WFk.Nj6g
GDX is making a strong attempt today.. but yesterday's TOTAL bearish engulfment is a big mountain to climb.
Convertbond
Life after Securitization? Wall St. underwrote $3.2 trln of loans to homebuyers with bad credit, undocumented incomes 2002-07. Zero 2008-10
Using CV's analysis:
SYMBOL Apr 2010 high; Nov 2010 high
SPX 1219.80; 1227.08
BKX 58.83; 49.65
KRX 60.56; 49.83
XLF 17.12; 15.68
DOW 11258.01; 11451.53
NASDAQ 2535.28; 2592.94
Convertbond
Never forget the 9 most terrifying words in the English language... "I'm from the Government and i'm here to help" Ronald Reagan
@karen (11:33)
I couldn't tell if you were being [snarky] or not with that comment...
I will say, though... If you were being SERIOUS... I have to reply in a serious way... and here goes...
- to say the offer to "monetize debt", I'd agree with you, in principle, appears to be a much larger thing than the beginning of an incremental rate cutting cycle... HOWEVER - IMO - that's an example of "retrofitting" an argument...
- What I've been saying... INSTEAD... Is that IT MAKES NO DIFFERENCE (in aggregate) the perceived QUANTITY of moves... (I'd made jokes the past months using fictitious numbers like "A JABLILLION" dollars...
I made the jokes on purpose... And that was to say, that the market is like a spoiled kid that wants a pony on its birthday...
If you don't come thru with the pony, the kid will cry... If you DO come thru with the pony, it'll cry that it didn't get TWO ponies...
So the market buoyancy, since AUGUST, was just the kid trying to be REAL NICE (because it was told that only "nice kids get ponies on their birthday")...
Now that the birthday has arrived (and so has the pony)... It can go back to being a spoiled rotten kid again...
and THAT's how a rate cutting cycle & "debt monetization" are EXACTLY EQUAL on a larger scale...
Dew drop, on the fern leaf, on the forest floor, under the large overhead canopy, of the Amazon rainforest...
Furthermore - it's why OLD fundamental ways of valuing asset classes will likely never, ever, be the same going forward...
Because it's FUTILE to place values on things that are priced in fiat currencies that are racing to zero in the end... & is why CV places his "value" in raw goods these days...
CV, I get it, I know! The market will never be satisfied or satiated.. but in the meantime, it sure s*cks for my short positions.. and it's looking right now as if the "correction" is over... this is basically my week to cut and hide, tho.. I'll give it till Friday or next Tuesday.
hope you all can pull up this link:
http://www.indagare.com/passions/6/departments/171/10452
@karen
The markets (or, more precisely, the bankers) are no different than the kings alchemists, or rumplestiltskin for crying out loud...
Keeping alive the "illusion" that gold can be sppun out of hay or pure lead...
Steven Roach: The sad state of U.S. economic policy [keeps me awake at night]. With issues ranging from low interest rates, trillion-dollar stimulus, unemployment and under-employment, the U.S. economy is mis-managed in a way I have never seen before.
I am worried at the state of things and worried for my children.
http://www.businessinsider.com/steven-roach-im-scared-for-my-children-2010-11#ixzz14tsGvLde
Well, another day in the mine...got stopped out of my big bet, and I am wondering about agriculture....
http://www.thecattlesite.com/articles/2570/world-agricultural-supply-and-demand-estimates-november-2010
US wheat ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected five million bushels lower this month as downward production revisions of 11 million bushels for Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat and four million bushels for durum more than offset higher projected imports.
US feed grain supplies for 2010/11 are reduced this month with lower expected corn production. Corn production is forecast 124 million bushels lower as the national average yield is lowered to 154.3 bushels per acre, down 1.5 bushels from the previous forecast. Feed and residual use is projected 100 million bushels lower with the smaller forecast crop and higher prices expected to reduce feeding.
@Bruce
Useless to read crop reports...
Prices will be heavily influenced by SPEC going forward for as long as Ben Bernankrupt wants to turn the nation into catfood eaters & Mennenites...
Mennonites - sp
TYX
Up over 30bps from yesterdays close (pay up).
Closed above its 50% retrace yesterday.
Today its trading over its SMA(233).
Making a new weekly high after last weeks weekly 3LB reversal up.
BOOM!!!
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-10/brazil-small-cap-banks-tumble-after-panamericano-s-1-5-billion-rescue.html
"Stocks and bonds of Brazil’s smallest banks tumbled after Banco Panamericano SA’s 2.5 billion-real ($1.5 billion) rescue raised concerns over industry accounting practices.
Panamericano plummeted 32 percent to 4.62 reais. Banco Industrial e Comercial SA, or BicBanco, sank 4.8 percent to 15.09 reais in Sao Paulo at 10:50 a.m. New York time and earlier lost 8.5 percent, the most since January 2009. Banco Pine SA fell 3.8 percent to 13.34 reais, as Banco Cruzeiro do Sul SA slipped 2.6 percent to 14.75 reais. Parana Banco SA fell 5.8 percent to 13.80 reais, heading to the biggest decline since April 2009."
AP- November 11, 2010.
Fed chairman Benjamin Bernanke took an unscheduled trip to Brazil this morning to give an unscheduled updating to the Brazilian central bank on standard accounting practices in the United States. "Debits and credits aren't what they used to be" Mr. Bernanke was heard mumbling as he boarded his jet this morning....
AND
TNX trading above its weekly 3LB reversal (26.88).
Bruce
LMAO at AP post
CV:
I for one like your rants...keep 'em coming.
Bruce
oh, wonder if the Fed's new POMO schedule (2pm release?) has the potential to disappoint the market..
@Amen Ra (11:47)
Good work on that...
I'd just been eyeballing individual names (the usual suspects)...
This is so much like 2007...
Remember tho... The real move down didn't come until Jan 2008...
Gotta pay those Santa Claus bonuses, right?
Oh yeah... & it was that SOC GEN clown that started the whole ball rolling, right? ALL HIS FAULT!
Kind of like the funny posts I was reading on the missle launch off the California coast... They were "blaming" it on Waddell & Reed - lol...
from charles hugh smith:
http://www.businessinsider.com/feds-qe2-misadventure-costs-us-households-46-trillion-2010-11
" Interesting AAA-$TNX chart. Looks like a regime shift. Investors no longer believe AAA means what it once did. "
@karen (12:23)
This is nothing more than a hunch... But with Irish spreads blowing out and students rioting in downtown London today...
I'd bet that POMO has a chance to do it's "foot save" job...
What I'm nore interested in is the TYPE of foot save... I think this market will become impatient if a new higher weekly candle isn't produced...
and the clock is ticking...
and next week is opex...
and the week after is Thanksgiving...
you get the picture...
CV
from ZH:
Ireland has already crossed the event horizon of 600bps and will probably make it to the singularity (above 800bps) sometime next week.
@Amen (12:34)
I hear they're already interviewing candidates to play the role of Waddell & Reed for when that one blows up...
(HA! I am all for no mtg deduction but fat chance of that every happening. It WOULD BE THE RIGHT THING THO!
It’s Leaking…No Big Surprises In Deficit Commission Proposals
By Jamie Coleman || November 10, 2010 at 17:41 GMT
A draft of the US deficit commissions’ proposal is coming out on Reuters…
Spending cuts phased in over a number of years to avoid undercutting economic recovery
Comprehensive social security reform including raising retirement age to 68 by 2050, 69 by 2075; reduced benefits for middle, upper income retirees
Reduced base rate for corporate taxes
Dramatic tax reform including dropping home mortgage interest deduction
Cut defense spending, close additional US bases
http://www.prisonplanet.com/how-ben-bernanke-sentenced-the-poorest-20-of-the-population-to-a-cold-hungry-winter.html
...I can't find the original JP Morgan research that resulted in this graph, but I find it fascination that 20% of the population in the US will spend 58% of their income on food and energy...that is 60 million people out of a country of (more than) 300 million..
"cut defense spending & close bases"
That's just what we need around here... Let's close a bunch of bases and bring a bunch of highly trained soldiers back here, UNEMPLOY THEM & take away their benefits...
Some may band together and do a coup d'etat!
That would get things rolling!
Bruce.. in parts of So CAL.. and probably NYC.. a good percentage of the people spend over 58% of their incomes on the roof over their heads!
@Bruce (12:47)
They probably got it from my CATFOOD thread yesterday...
@karen
Are they edible roofs? :-)
... and don't tell me that Californians have taken to building catfood igloos!
That's where "Cat on a Hot Tin Roof" came from...
Dontcha know?
written by Tennessee Williams, of course...
A neighbor of yours Bruce?
jnk hugging its lows on the day.. hmmm
My neighbors are all trying to shoot deer with a muzzleloader these days, CV. Amazingly different place I now find myself in...
We are eating the last of my wife's summer tomatoes this week, and her winter bed of mustard greens. Amazing how long gardens produce if you just give them a little care.
@Bruce
Gotta build yourself a greenhouse/hothouse doc...
CV can now have a friggin BANANA tree in WVA if I want one...
Tomatoes... I had 50 plants going this summer, so all that is jarred up to last thru the winter... I only have greenhouse space enough for a small selection of different things, but I've decided it's the way to go and want that to be a constant building project... (Meaning - I'll add more and more as years roll by)...
Looks like we get the Charlie Brown T-Shirt pattern until 2PM at least...
30yr auction BTC 2.31
30yr auction
HY 4.32%
Allotted at high 82.04%
CV:
I am strongly considering it..my wife would absolutely love it..
I placed a jar in Tennessee,
And round it was, upon a hill.
It made the slovenly wilderness
Surround that hill.
Wallace Stevens bitchez!
Actually...during the arab oil embargo and odd/even lineups for gas...peeps seem to have forgotten the truckers strike...first two things to fly off the shelves at socal supermarkets...asswipe and dogfood!
anyone else here follow BA?
been sort of funny how many times they've delayed the 787, another emergency landing recently during test flight.
doh!
Ben
Plane had electrical problems.
BreakingNews
Pentagon 'satisfied' that contrail seen in video off Calif. coast was not a missile, but was 'likely caused by an aircraft' - NBC
looks like for now this stuff with Cam Newtown isn't going to end well.
Well, here is a point of view that is not ringing true:
(from Martin Wolf in the FT)
http://www.cnbc.com/id/40108312
Ra,
I have a lot of clients that work at BA, most of them work on the helicopters though in Ridley Park. They were doing some really neat weapons testing this summer down in DE that my clients were allowed to tell me about.
One cool tool they are further developing is some sort of triangulation system that can pin-point a snipers location in seconds up to X miles away (I can't remember how many, it was a lot but I don't want to exaggerate)
JoeSaluzzi
Santelli gives the auction a D-
I agree Ben, the Cam Newton thing is what it is...although I don't know where all this is coming from, no one seems to deny any of what has been reported...
for your spare time.. or if you need to procrastinate:
http://www.newyorker.com/arts/critics/books/2010/10/11/101011crbo_books_surowiecki?currentPage=all
back to market madness and mania..
(actually, i'm thinking just a little euro bounce.. we will see. my vision has been clouded by my martin wolf headache.)
Bond Yields Steady Quickly
By Jamie Coleman || November 10, 2010 at 18:19 GMT
The long bond is back near levels where it traded ahead of the auction (4.275%) so I guess the auction jitters were of the short-term variety….
Using that logic, I guess you can fade the run-up in EUR/USD if you feel like a short-term punt.
this person has it wrong.. oh, no wonder, it's that JA JW.. (and Santelli gave it an F-, not D-)
http://www.businessinsider.com/newsflash-the-30-year-treasury-auction-disaster-was-good-news-2010-11
Karen,
Strange article, don't you think?
The Fed is doing what it's doing because they are flat out scared of DEflation, there should be very little doubt at this point in time that this is our primary near term/current threat and the exact reason that his "outcomes" op-ed was really so focused on banks lending and consumers borrowing. Many people, the majority in fact, remain in complete denial about deflation, they say we can't possibly have it because of the Fed, a statement that both denies historical fact as well as current reality of things the Fed cannot control.
That said, I don't really know what this writer is all about after reading this, he seems conflicted, he's so certain that at no point in the future will Fed actions cause inflation, but then he also says:
"Presumably, he believes that, in a proper world, the US would be forced to follow the deflationary route imposed upon Greece and Ireland, instead. This is not going to happen. Nor should it."
First, from my perch, no outcome was "imposed" on those countries that wasn't ultimately inevitable anyway. Second, this statement is made in a way that reveals the author must think the only way we can have deflation is if it is forced upon us by "leaders". Please. I think when I read this, I'm left with the impression that Wolf believes in the potent directors fallacy, or perhaps we could call it the goldilocks monetary policy, where our fearless wizard generates "just enough" inflation.
color me unimpressed with the words of yet another Fed apologist.
and yes, I'm a part time policy wonk.
and to this tweeter i say, right buddy.
gtotoy
3rd day of pullback in a bull market is a buy, today is 3rd
yeah it's a shame Bruce, he's having such a monster year, clearly someone wanted to bring him down, it's sad, seems his Dad was involved
this jumping up and down is making me nervous..
@Bruce
Totally worth it... (greenhouse)
Having one (actually - I have 3 now)... Is A LOT better that I would have ever imagined...
You don't realize until it's up and working...
the guy is hysterical.. SellPuts
what a crock of shit our market is . how the fuck are we green
Nice greenhouse kits available on-line! even costco!
@karen
"Pentagon 'satisfied' that contrail seen in video off Calif. coast was not a missile, but was 'likely caused by an aircraft' - NBC"
Yeah sure... it was the Waddell & Reed executive jet...
anyone see the highlights of the Pacers game last night? Wow!
CV, do you wish you were back in Italy or is it too close to the middle east for you ??
@McF
"One cool tool they are further developing is some sort of triangulation system that can pin-point a snipers location in seconds up to X miles away"
---
Did you realize that the world record for a KILL SHOT by a sniper is from a distance of 2,500 yards?...
Holy Smokes... That's a mile and a half away!
Hey, wasn't that record beaten in one of those jason bourne movies? Come on, CV..
IS THIS THE TRUTH, OR WHAT?! zerohedge
How much taxpayer money did the deficit commission spend to put together its latest proposal that will never be implemented?
my reply to Tyler, I kno, right?!
weekly $tyx already shows a nice breakout.. sorry big ben.. the craken is stirring..
hey, we need to throw a welcome party for the bond vigilantes!
"Nice greenhouse kits available on-line! even costco!"
---
I'll give you a hint... (which is how I have 3)...
I ordered one of those kits (from BJ's - not costco - but they're basically the same)...
They had a sale on a 8' x 12'... When I went to buy it, I was looking at the PRICE (not size)... and mistakenly ordered the 8' x 8' (which happened to be the real price for that one not on sale...
Anyway... the thing came... I realized the mistake when I started to put it up... So I called them and said I needed to return it (for an exchange on the larger one which was listed at the same price)...
They consulted for a minute and told me not to bother sending it back (and sent me the larger one for free)...
So basically - I think - you could try ordering one - and when it arrives - call them and say it's defective... I bet it's 50-50 they just send you a second one for free...
If you don'r need (2), send me the other one & I'll use it...
THIS MESSAGE WILL SELF DESTRUCT IN 5 SECONDS
possible cup and handle on 10 min spx.. and pomo schedule out within 15 min!
euro markets didn't close out so well..
ftse: -1%
dax: -1%
cac: -1.45%
ibex: -1.7%
psi (portugal); -.03%
@karen
new chart for you (shows how SPX can be green - at least for now)... it includes "33 Liberty" action from AH
new chart in thread
that chart has me crying in my granola, tears..
Poor guy... if he followed his own advice, and sold puts right after the low...
:)
@karen
See what happens after POMO starts...
Recently - my experience with that "look" is that it manufactures some kind of false breakout... wheich then becomes a H&S of it's own...
Then you go from there...
ugh! another, "oh, right!)
http://www.housingwire.com/2010/11/10/hands-off-fed-to-give-consumer-protection-bureau-500-million
CV,
Yeah, I did know they could shoot from that distance, pretty amazing. There was a great show on the History channel over the summer called Top Shot, not sure if you saw it but it was awesome.
The thing is... The wave count off todays low on that doesn't have the look that it's setting up for any wild "3" up...
Most likely... something choppy...
@mcF
This is the dude...
Awesome story...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlos_Hathcock
optionmonster - Jamie on $VIX & Open Outcry Today http://ping.fm/tYoM4
so, have to wonder, into todays lows...was that an A wave, we are currently in B, we'll have C down to lower and then the last wave up....stay tuned, AT's charts looking pretty good right now.
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html
here it is!! and will it be enuf for the crackhead?
oh, so they've got this friday and the first 3 days of next week covered ???
gold likes the pomo.. silver, too.. crude loves it..
I got a bloody nose looking at the POMO schedule, feeling a little twitchy now, and irritable.
Nice to know they're not doing anything on Thanksgiving Day...
I suppose now I'll be able to eat my "turducken" catfood dinner in peace...
$vix heads back down on the release..
@karen (2:05)
so does C
$105B thru december? probably not enuf: BreakingNews
U.S. government begins new budget year with $140.4 billion October deficit, third highest on record. http://on.msnbc.com/cy3lZt
and don't forget the abk debt..
We're right at a 61.8% retrace back to 1227...
For the un-initiated...
TURDUCKEN
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turducken
the high is fading..
wikipedia has our debt estimate for this fiscal year at 1.47 trillion...
But if October is typical...then 140.4 x 12= 1.68 trillion...already 15% more than estimated last year..
What would Tim do?
@bruce (2:18)
ask ben to monetize...
with plausible deniability...
and blame it on the Chinese for manipulating the yuan...
then he could getr back to his tax cheating
i might have accomplished a great feat today.. getting myself unregistered from classmates.com.. JFK.. i mean, JFC.. and my mouth has gotten so foul hanging out with this market. : )
Here's some stuff we've got going on right now:
1. Retail conviction in POMO, it's likely big trading desks are preparing to destroy John E's confidence on this front.
2. orthodox wave counters now across the board looking for higher highs since Prechter now flipped his count.
3. Bullish sentiment is at extremes
4. The perception that economic data is improving as was expected several months ago by Neely in order to convince people it was safe to get back in, just very recently we have claims of the following being better:
Jobs, credit expansion, jobless claims, ISM, auto sales
5. Economists are collectively breathing prosperity again, they did the same in april, by June a double dip was guaranteed, now it's promised to be off the table, with some "soft patches" along the way.
6. total conviction against the dollar
7. end of the year seasonality effects to boost confidence in bullish outlooks
8. rapidly rising commodity prices, which should do wonders for the consumer right before the holiday
9. despite several technical indicators starting to break down p/c hasn't even sniffed 1 today and hardly at all recently, downside protection is real cheap, and nobody wants it (and this is why supply and demand doesn't apply to financial markets, higher prices are what encourage more buying interest, not lower ones)
I'll let someone else come up with a number 10.
There are almost no f'in days off from POMO once it starts on 11/12. F the Fed.
a partridge in a pear tree...
oops, sorry all of you in WA..
State bans 'blackout in a can' caffeinated alcohol drinks
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2013395010_drinkban11m.html
@Amen
How can we ever NOT have a POMO day with so much debt to monetize?
CV.. you gotta look at the last ten min C candle!
@karen
Jeez...
- first HAPPY MEALS
- now this
- if they ban TURDUCKEN... I'm moving out of the country with Barbara Streisand... Or wait... Is she BACK IN now?
Who is President of this damn country these days... I forget...
THIS could be the sell the news POMO..
CV
C'MON MAN the other countries should be up in arms seeing that schedule. Should see some one on one confrontations at the G20 because of this.
Germany: Hey Timmy
Timmy: What's up.
Germany: {knocks Timmy the f out} That's what's up.
China: Oh he's out cold. Now's a good time to tell our banks to dump UST's.
@karen
C still needs to get to $5 bucks to clear the April high...
The government, I suppose... would love to see it up there because most MOMOS cannot buy stocks under $5...
Good luck!
HousingWire
Delinquencies in CMBS rose to 8.39% in October http://goo.gl/fb/lMP4V
That schedule does scream MONETIZATION though.
@Amen
I'm not saying IT'S RIGHT...
I'm just doing the calculations...
- $100 billion a month
- 20 "market days"
- chop it into $6-$8 billion pieces...
- you get the picture...
@Amen
It's MONETIZATION pure and simple...
Even Fisher said so...
i can't watch this lest it re-ignite my martin wolf headache..
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/11/william-isaac-defender-of-incompetent-bankswall-street/
Ben,
I had this mornings low as the conclusion of five waves down from yesterday.
Pretty sure we're in the 3rd wave off that low now, but it could be a 4th, depending on how you're counting the 5min...
Which I realize can be a treacherous endeavor, but I use the counts only to add validity to a new entry... ie, I wait for the legs...
@Amen
& look at the trade deficit numbers with China the other day...
Europe is "getting it" up the back alleyway from BOTH sides with the PEG...
That sounds weird... I'll simplify by saying, the more legs on a retrace, the higher probability that I-Man will be hitting the trigger at the next pivot.
Ra,
2:31, nice, I just had a good mental picture of that playing out.
http://www.housingwire.com/2010/11/10/mbia-talks-tough-on-putbacks-posts-3q-loss
I,
I have not yet tried to chart yesterdays move, it could be five down, but it'd likely only be five legs of a consonant wave (corrective)
the larger form of the wave structure which I;'m confident in right now (see AT's slides) show that we still need a push after any near term correction here, that push could truncate, so we'll see how it all goes.
I'm curious as you generally apply the waves, how do they line up with your Gann work.
also, got to read the latest MA last night, was very good, he's a really interesting guy to say the least.
@Amen
Maybe someone could slap Timmy on the back (with one of those KICK ME signs), and shake his hand and tell him what a good job he'd doing...
http://twitpic.com/35nkpj
dollar index and % bulls, courtesy of Nic
btw, I should have included this commentary from Cobra on that chart I linked earlier, he was looking for a green day today based on his backtest probability:
"I see Bearish Engulfing bar all over the place (see ETFs table below), which means bearish reversal 79% of the time. However the back test since 2003 (no obvious edges if test starts from 1991) shows a very very bullish tomorrow which had 85% chances of being a green day and the intermediate-term (from 2 to 4 weeks) was also very very bullish. So the market action today at most argues for a short-term pullback while the intermediate-term still remains bullish."
his short term model has turned to sell, it's been good, now it needs a confirmation.
@McF
link up that MA if you can...
My EW is very basic in application... but yes, I have noticed that the waves tend to peak/conclude at gann's, and fib's... If you're starting from the right place anyway.
;)
http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/The%20Fractal%20Nature%20of%20Markets%2011-1-10.pdf
There ya go, Capn.
And for hours of study...
http://www.martinarmstrong.org/economic_projections.htm
Thanks I...
Any of you EWavers use a oscillator to help id counts?
I know for the 5/3/1min charts, the full sto seems to be pretty consistent at marking them.
I'm sure yall call that "trainin wheels"...
:)
an odd twist on this? i think the Fed just painted itself in a box with that schedule..
the twist is, i guess, they just put a floor under the dollar, in a way.
I've never really embraced any oscillators no.
optionmonster
Big D on $GM & $SPX http://ping.fm/NuPST
4 minutes ago via Ping.fm
those sentiment swings on the dollar are really something to see. Social mood baby.
the fib relationships in that chart are a thing of beauty.
The fib relationships in all charts are a thing of beauty... because they are reflections of the Most High.
Just like all of us.
DEEP, mon.
"think the Fed just painted itself in a box with that schedule..."
Anyone have the thesis papers on:
- peak paint theory
- peak box theory
I have a thesis on the Fed.
they suck ass, and I want them abolished
-Part Time Policy Wonk
A golden opportunity for silver?
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970204253604575606503315330226.html
hmm, i wonder how that could go wrong..
the cando is really wrecking my day : (
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/11/ben-bernanke-the-chauncey-gardiner-of-central-banking/
Ben, YM high at 11333, 3pm EST...
Conclusion of 3rd leg off morning low, hit gann resistance off yesterdays high, hit fib...
When all those line up, its usually money.
@karen (3:11)
I haven't clicked on that link... But it sounds like a thread only CV could author...
Maybe CV & Ritholtz are the same guy?
DL thinks so... He might be right! :-)
@I-Man
"When all those line up, its usually money..."
Here's a LINEUP for you...
- Summers
- Geithner
- Bernanke
- Obama
Economic DREAM TEAM...
CV, the post was actually authored by Frederick Sheehan.. "the co-author of Greenspan’s Bubbles: The Age of Ignorance at the Federal Reserve.
His new book, Panderer for Power: The True Story of How Alan Greenspan Enriched Wall Street and Left a Legacy of Recession, was published by McGraw-Hill in November 2009. He was Director of Asset Allocation Services at John Hancock Financial Services in Boston. In this capacity, he set investment policy and asset allocation for institutional pension plans."
"Don't be economic girlie men"
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