AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: NFP was BTE…but did you look under the surface?

SPX
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Tested and blew through remaining fibos that lead to previous 2010 high. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1193.57). The monthly 3LB reversal has been placed on IR. QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish engulfing day (did open lower but not by much). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and passed the 85.4% retrace at 76.29. Still may decide to test the 2009 low of 74.17. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 78.18).



VIX
Bullish short day (morning star failure). Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below all SMA's. Below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 21.83). Getting comfortable in the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Doji day (possible evening doji star). Back above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Barely above new 0% retrace. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1342.50).



EURUSD
Bearish long day (higher open needed for a reversal so possible profit taking). Midpoint above EMA(10). Held its 61.8% retrace at 1.3899. Still above SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3732).



JNK
Bearish harami day (body fully inside previous candle). Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Trading range is still between the Gann 3x1 and 4x1. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.42).



10YR YIELD
Bullish harami day. The 0.0% fibo retrace at 23.59 is the line in the sand. Back above the weekly 3LB mid (25.35) but below SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed the 14.6% retrace at 26.00. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 27.12).



DJ TRANS AVG
Doji day. The upper trend line is far enough away to be historical. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 4737.19).



CRB
Hanging man day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Still failing the Gann 1x1. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 304.98).



XLF
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 14.23). Resolved triangle/wedge higher. Sugarhoneyicetea. Repeat. Must be the free money from the Fed.



EURJPY
Spinning top day. Confirmed evening star. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace at 1.1447. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.1170).

LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Bond Report 11.5.10

A stronger than expected jobs report led to a slightly softer bond market across the board, and a lot of selling in the inflation-sensitive long end of the curve. We have warned repeatedly of the effects of job number improvements on the long bond, and with a 10y and 30y auction ahead next week, the long end was soundly spanked.

Corpies: LQD -0.32%; AGG -0.28%; JNK -0.32%; HYG -0.11%;
Govies: TLT -1.72%; IEI -0.28%; TIP -0.34%
Hedgies: TBT 3.24%

We were ready for a full-scale sell off and wanted to buy the dip in HY, but corporates held up well. Expect a rally in Ts next week after the 10y and 30y auctions are over with. B/Ds got to get their share.... amusing stuff to be sure but it is going to be tough to make money in fixed income for a while.

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UP, UP AND AWAY IN MY BEAUTIFUL BALLOON...