TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Audibles 10.7.10

Morning Audibles 10.7.10

Want a thread to start the day? I don't know why... There's nothing relevant to say... So I'm going to do what any other responsible blog author would do in a situation... (Note: I'm practicing to be a politician here)...

I'm going to PUNT...

Here's what ZH says...

Yen Now Back To Pre-Intervention Levels

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/yen-now-back-pre-intervention-levels

Whoop de damn do!

Excerpt (eh, forget it - the whole enchilada): "The BOJ has now learned the hard way that these days $20 billion doesn't buy you much: specifically - about 20 days, and a Geoffrey Batt painting of Ben Bernanke running naked behind the US dollar with a chainsaw and a homicidal grin. The USDJPY is now back to where it was when Shirakawa injected Y2.125 trillion, only to see the impact trickle down to nothing. Considering Monday's BOJ action did nothing to weaken the yen, it is almost certain Shirakawa will pull another $20 billion rabbit out of his hat: this time we expect the impact to last at most half as long as the last time..."

"As for what completely irrelevant and totally bubble stocks will do today, here is your answer:"

Well - It's OVER THERE anyway...

In other news... For futbol fanatics...

Liverpool Agrees on $476 Million Sale of Club to Red Sox Owner

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-06/liverpool-football-club-gets-two-offers-as-split-divides-boardroom.html

Good thing in that is at least you don't have to change your socks... So you have THAT going for you... You're going to have to get used to the new high tech scoreboard though (cause that's how we roll)...

OK - I'm going to have to wrap this up now, because I have to go shopping for some bullshit stock to buy to save Obama's presidency...

203 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 1 – 200 of 203 Newer› Newest»

mcHAPPY said...: It would certainly be nice to open minus a gap today.; October 6, 2010 at 9:00 AM
call me ahab said...: AT-

I'm considering that trade- Moss for Colston

Karen-

yeah that TBP post- I mean really- as if anyone w/ half a brain doesn't know exactly what the game is-

but hey- thanks for telling us (yes we're that stupid)

also- we are now at the point where Bernanke . . .er-I mean Alice asks the Cheshire cat which path she should take-

and the Cheshire cat inquires- "where are you going?"

and Alice says-"I don't know"

and the Cheshire cat says- "then it doesn't matter which path you take"; October 6, 2010 at 9:13 AM
karen said...: morning!! no more gaps up here, mcHappy, please!

"There is a high chance that gold pulls back a couple of hundred bucks in the course of the next 12 months."

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page96990?oid=112450&sn=2010+Detail&pid=92730; October 6, 2010 at 9:13 AM
CV said...: Looks like Moss might get traded to the Vikings...; October 6, 2010 at 9:14 AM
karen said...: i'm afraid to revisit last night's thread.. was attempting to drown myself in wine.. between, my divorce, the market, and my deck problems.. which one sheet metal guy said they need to take the bottom ten inches of plaster off my house, now, to properly flash.. take the 3 french doors out to put sill pans in.. you can't patch this plaster.. the entire wall would have to be re-floated.. the mess, the expense.. my head is spinning now.. stone guy told me up to $10k and 4 weeks to relay stone.. (i'm sure that's an over-estimate.); October 6, 2010 at 9:19 AM
call me ahab said...: I saw that; October 6, 2010 at 9:20 AM
call me ahab said...: last post responding to CV; October 6, 2010 at 9:20 AM
spoonman said...: Sounds like a nightmare, Karen. Don't drown yourself, though - we need to around here to class the place up.; October 6, 2010 at 9:25 AM
CV said...: @karen

Just go long the S&P for a few days and you'll have your $10k in no time flat...; October 6, 2010 at 9:25 AM
karen said...: oh, we are a cheery group this morning!; October 6, 2010 at 9:25 AM
karen said...: On #BloombergTV: John Studzinski, a senior managing director at Blackstone Group LP, Says Equities Are `Overvalued' http://ow.ly/2Pi6O

ritholtz - Leaning against the rally because POMO is "unjust" and "wrong"? Recall Ned Davis: Do you wanna be right, or do you wanna make money

(you all should see his outrageous arm chair avatar on twitter.); October 6, 2010 at 9:27 AM
call me ahab said...: just renamed my team the Singletary 49r's-

I need Foster out w/ an injury so Schaub throws the goddamn ball; October 6, 2010 at 9:28 AM
karen said...: thank you, spoonman, i'll try to sit up straight today : ); October 6, 2010 at 9:29 AM
AmenRa said...: A 2.3x% handle on TNX? Uh oh. The curve isn't getting flattened, it's getting steamrolled.; October 6, 2010 at 9:30 AM
karen said...: thank goodness, no gap.. of course, if $spx runs to 1550.. oh never mind.; October 6, 2010 at 9:32 AM
AmenRa said...: Gold touched above 1350. How do you like those apples BB?; October 6, 2010 at 9:33 AM
CV said...: @ahab

You're missing the point on Schaub...

First of all, the Oakland run defense blows, (so they were going to use their best weapon Foster all day there)...

2nd... Andre Johnson & Owen Daniels were hurt... Meaning you have all pro Nnadi Asamogha draped over an inferior receiver (like Kevin Walter or Jacoby Jones)...

There's NO WAY I'd have expected Schaub to throw many passes there... They just wanted to get out of town with a win and go back home...; October 6, 2010 at 9:33 AM
karen said...: http://www.businessinsider.com/11-long-term-trends-that-are-absolutely-destroying-the-us-economy-2010-10; October 6, 2010 at 9:34 AM
karen said...: Excellent slide show from BusinessInsider..; October 6, 2010 at 9:35 AM
call me ahab said...: that ADP was 59k upside down-

it seems to me that the truth is going to come down like a hammer- when it does-

Karen- its all ok- I always find if I had a Pabst or two-

I get downright belligerent (not my usual sunny self)

CV-

I have Walter on another league- so was just looking for Schaub to Walter all day long; October 6, 2010 at 9:39 AM
karen said...: oh, brother!

http://www.businessinsider.com/bill-fleckenstein-heres-why-gold-could-shoot-to-8250-2010-10

chart retweet of Nic's: http://chart.ly/aye4oyq; October 6, 2010 at 9:45 AM
call me ahab said...: "When you print a lot of money, the people who get the money are better off -- there's no question about it. But the country, the world is worse off," Rogers says. "Sure some of us feel much better, especially people in the financial markets but...the world is not getting better. The world is getting worse."- Jim Rogers; October 6, 2010 at 9:47 AM
CV said...: @ahab

You're still missing the point...

You NEVER, EVER start any receiver that's facing Darelle Revis, Nnadi Asamogha, or Champ Bailey...

You just don't; October 6, 2010 at 9:52 AM
karen said...: gdx made a new 52 week high this morning.. $copper up again today, too..; October 6, 2010 at 9:56 AM
karen said...: and JJC made a new 52 week high, as well.. of course, my jr copper&gold miner has just ignored this run up.. no where near its old highs..; October 6, 2010 at 9:57 AM
call me ahab said...: breaking news:

"Done deal: Moss returns to Vikings"; October 6, 2010 at 9:59 AM
McFearless said...: Karen,

well, just think, it probably can't get any worse, a year from today maybe all those things aren't a worry to you at all and your biggest problem will be what to dress your salads with.

also, who needs jobs when you have....stimulus!; October 6, 2010 at 9:59 AM
karen said...: Interesting on Costco.. "Costco Wholesale Corp (COST.O) posted lower-than-expected comparable sales in September, pressuring shares even as quarterly profit beat expectations."

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE69515020101006; October 6, 2010 at 10:00 AM
karen said...: Yes, Ben, thanks for the reminder.. and health is the most important thing after all! I need to regain my normally positive outlook.; October 6, 2010 at 10:02 AM
McFearless said...: so new england goes after vincent jackson now?; October 6, 2010 at 10:03 AM
McFearless said...: big game for the Phils tonight...on the way to the series!; October 6, 2010 at 10:05 AM
karen said...: today is weird.. volume must be off the charts ; ); October 6, 2010 at 10:07 AM
mcHAPPY said...: I'm going to write this in caps lock because I am trying to emphasize how blown my mind is:

HAS ANYONE SEEN THE 10YR? THE 2YR? TNX? WHAT IS GOING ON? DOES ANYONE ELSE THINK THIS IS ABSOLUTELY CRAZY?; October 6, 2010 at 10:08 AM
McFearless said...: Jim (Jimmy?) Rogers video from tech ticker:

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/markets-soaring-%22but-the-world-is-worse-off%22-jimmy-rogers-says-535479.html?tickers=%5EDJI,SLV,GLD,UUP,TLT,DBA,MOO&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=; October 6, 2010 at 10:08 AM
karen said...: spy yields 2+% and you get the price appreciation..; October 6, 2010 at 10:09 AM
call me ahab said...: CV-

Garrard managed 3 TD's against the Broncos at the beginning of the season; October 6, 2010 at 10:09 AM
McFearless said...: is Jim rogers really short? he looks like it in that video. CV is going to love that video.; October 6, 2010 at 10:09 AM
CV said...: @ahab

Champ Bailey was hurt; October 6, 2010 at 10:10 AM
CV said...: @McF

I thought about Patriots & VJ... But it's really not their style...; October 6, 2010 at 10:11 AM
CV said...: I think they want to develop Brandon Tate...; October 6, 2010 at 10:11 AM
CV said...: Also...

Bills traded Marshawn Lynch to Seattle...; October 6, 2010 at 10:13 AM
CV said...: Lynch & Forsett played in the same backfield at Cal...; October 6, 2010 at 10:13 AM
McFearless said...: course I'd like to be the one that points out that Jim Rogers did in fact say in that video, in a round about way, that "real assets" can't go down.

we'll see about that.; October 6, 2010 at 10:13 AM
karen said...: Whitney Falters in Trying to Repeat Success of Citigroup Call
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aRitpA_AAMqg

and for McHAPPY, Fed Becomes The Second Largest Holder Of US Treasurys In The World

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/deconstructing-pomo-fed-becomes-second-largest-holder-us-treasurys-world; October 6, 2010 at 10:14 AM
McFearless said...: @ahab,

re: comments about propping up asset prices...lol, right?

we were saying over a year ago....so we got a stock market rally, now what?

Also, what a clueless dolt to think that higher asset prices instantly equates to a higher wealth, or what we might call someone's "net worth".....hahaha, not exactly the case all the time smartie.; October 6, 2010 at 10:16 AM
McFearless said...: from the MW bloom article:

"Bahl & Gaynor’s McCormick said institutional investors don’t pick stocks based solely on the advice of analysts. “What they want is consistency, logic,” he said."

oh see, I'm so dumb, I was thinking reading this that what people want are as follows:

1. Her to be right every time
2. Her to be right immediately; October 6, 2010 at 10:21 AM
karen said...: http://www.businessinsider.com/accidental-tweet-breaks-huge-nfl-story-2010-10; October 6, 2010 at 10:26 AM
karen said...: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/10/do-you-wanna-be-right-or-do-you-wanna-make-money/

The comments are going to be wild, I'm sure.. Something to amuse us!!; October 6, 2010 at 10:28 AM
CV said...: I gotta go out for a bit peeps...

So don't let this market FLASH CRASH without me...

Be back soon..; October 6, 2010 at 10:30 AM
karen said...: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/foodstamp-usage-climbs-new-all-time-record-highs; October 6, 2010 at 10:31 AM
karen said...: mrtopstep

$ES_F #futures -On the day UBS bot up to 2k DT trading bot 1k and MS sold 500 JPM 100 x 300 TOP NOTCH prefers to sell rallies for now; October 6, 2010 at 10:31 AM
McFearless said...: Barry has really taken to bashing Prechter lately, he'd do well to actually read what Prechter has advised people to do rather than just repeating second hand stories incorrectly, which he has done at least three times to RP on his site in the last month, crediting him with calls he's never made. I'd think he'd freak out of someone did that to him, no, I know he would.

I guess when you never make mistakes though, you know, like calling for DOW 6,800 in 2006, then you can do that and it's ok.; October 6, 2010 at 10:33 AM
McFearless said...: also, sometimes being right on wall street is about keeping money, not making it, a lesson from 2008 that seems to already be lost for most people, the idea that every turn needs to be called correctly is one of the things at the heart of what is wrong with wall street and oddly enough, the people that are the most upset are also typically the ones that demand that kind of accuracy, or else they label you a fool.; October 6, 2010 at 10:36 AM
karen said...: TraderMark running with this:

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/10/goldman-sachs-says-2-scenarios-for-us.html; October 6, 2010 at 10:39 AM
karen said...: "Oil prices were down fractionally ahead of the latest weekly inventory data. They haven't really moved much in the wake of the report, which showed a build of 3.09 million barrels in the face of a consensus call for a build of just 413,000 barrels."

cursing the dollar! and the fed!; October 6, 2010 at 10:41 AM
karen said...: interesting: tradefast

no shortable $SPY at fidelity - happens on occasion, not a reliable indicator, imo; October 6, 2010 at 10:42 AM
Anonymous said...: b22 @ 10:16-

no doubt; October 6, 2010 at 10:43 AM
karen said...: dollar dropping.. crude and gold rising..; October 6, 2010 at 10:45 AM
Anonymous said...: gotta roll out-

all have a good day; October 6, 2010 at 10:49 AM
Jennifer said...: Random morning musings: I heard Dennis Gartman on Kudlow last night (if I keep CNBC on all the time it prevents the kids from watching things I really hate like Spongebob...I've convinced them that Mommy really needs "her" tv shows) and he was saying that his phone is ringing off the hook w/ people wanting him to give interviews on gold and the last time this happened gold promptly sold off $150 bucks. I thought Daneric had some interesting comments re: the nature of wave 2s and where we are w/r/t the flash crash candle. Also interesting to see how weak the naz is compared to the others. CAT seems to have finally broken a trendline and done a little backtest...got burned the last time though so I'm not sure. Maybe once POMO hour is over I'll take another look... Thanks for all the book recs everyone.; October 6, 2010 at 10:50 AM
karen said...: anyone care to express their views on capital punishment?

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20101006/NEWS010702/310060048/Butler-County-man-executed; October 6, 2010 at 10:52 AM
karen said...: new high in FXA (aussie) today.. boy did i call that wrong.. along with the dollar, of course.; October 6, 2010 at 10:53 AM
karen said...: PIMCO McCulley: We’re confident monetary policy in the developed countries will remain extraordinarily accommodative for a very extended period.; October 6, 2010 at 10:54 AM
McFearless said...: I've had mixed feelings about bonds lately, as I mentioned several weeks ago I removed all client money that was left in TLT but I remain heavy weight in BND and PTTAX along with some other bond ETF's and I have a large amount of money in OPSIX which we bought back in mid 2009. This allocation has served clients well in 2010 without much volatility at all and far superior returns vs. the major stock indicies.

I'm going to go out on a limb and stick with Hendry's/Gary Shillings idea that bond y's are in fact going much lower, they may shock people with how low they go before they blow up, another case of the seemingly impossible made possible by Mr. Market. So while I'm not doing much buying, I'm not selling either, and I have some junk in my trunk with those holdings anyway.

While traders positions according to COT are bullish on bonds still, I do not agree with the idea expressed that traders have not been betting against bonds or the idea that there isn't anyone that doesn't think bond prices will go down from here, Karen linked a business insider article a few days ago showing hedge funds have been betting against govvies for months on end. There are in fact many many prominent hedge funders/mm's that are bond bears of late, Buffett, John Paulsen, Larry Cooperman, Jim Rogers, David Tepper, among many others. Further, retail investors are not in fact embracing safe bonds, they are buying hy and munis according to the fund flow data.

While sentiment was recently in the stratosphere for bonds, and so perhaps a few months of poor performance could be here, I'm not convinced this bad boy doesn't have a lot more room to run.

anyway, long post, just trying to remind myself I should be paying more attention to bonds anyway, stocks are the sideshow.; October 6, 2010 at 10:54 AM
McFearless said...: " I thought Daneric had some interesting comments re: the nature of wave 2s"

yeah, that was a good post by dan, of course, wave b's can be just like wave 2's as well

;-); October 6, 2010 at 10:57 AM
karen said...: thanks for your thots, ben.. i am feeling the same.. 2% on the ten.. could happen.. we are below El-Erian's low prediction right now! 2.383!! 2.22 seems a sure bet.; October 6, 2010 at 10:59 AM
karen said...: a red aapl? i thot the market offered only one variety, green aapls.; October 6, 2010 at 11:01 AM
karen said...: this is not a recommendation to short oil!

http://bespokeinvest.squarespace.com/thinkbig/2010/10/6/oil-inventories-much-higher-than-expected.html; October 6, 2010 at 11:02 AM
McFearless said...: ok Karen, feel free to rip me to shreds if this doesn't play out because I'll deserve it but I have considered us seeing a 1.5 on the 10 year....wacko I know, but its a mad mad mad mad world.

I have lunch with PIMCO tomorrow, will share what they tell me afterward.; October 6, 2010 at 11:03 AM
McFearless said...: seems the big boys are heavily short nas so no surprise to see it lagging, would love to see NDX show some relative weakness for a few days straight since most of the high momentum plays are in there.; October 6, 2010 at 11:04 AM
karen said...: Ben, i think you will find this fascinating..

http://www.businessinsider.com/model-for-pricing-gold-2010-10; October 6, 2010 at 11:09 AM
McFearless said...: karen, i'll spend some time on that one tonight. I don't think it's all that complex, golds value comes from perception, there is no secret formula, people have perceived gold to be valuable for 1,000's of years, sometimes we perceive its value to be higher than at other times, just like everything else, but I'll read about the model.; October 6, 2010 at 11:17 AM
McFearless said...: I opened a gold money account recently, I've got a tiny bit of money in it now, hoping I don't completely get left in the dust, one of the hallmarks of a real bull market is that it never truly pulls back to let you in at a great price, and that window might have closed when gold went down to $680.; October 6, 2010 at 11:26 AM
72bat said...: too many links to follow today!!! 8^0
just now catching up. from Dear Conspiracy Crackpots: Here’s How QE Works fed buys Ts > long rates down > homeowners re-fi > lower monthly payments > homeowners spend more. same as it ever was: home as atm. but it might just be different this time. my sister just re-fi'ed with credit union for significantly lower payment, yet will use the savings to accelerate mortgage pay-off. i likely will do the same in near future.; October 6, 2010 at 11:36 AM
karen said...: I just blew it.. couldn't take it after reading one of BR's replies.. what a d*ck!! anyway, i had to post.. i am such an idiot. Well, i won't go back there.; October 6, 2010 at 11:36 AM
McFearless said...: like I said, his idea is you need to hit every single move, you can't say "there is no excuse for missing the rally" if you dont' feel the same way about hitting every big decline, iow, if you aren't long every rally and short every decline you are somehow failing, and as I've mentioned before, Barry lost money in 2008 in the primary fund they use at Fusion, so, I'm not sure why he is going on and on like this.; October 6, 2010 at 11:44 AM
McFearless said...: also, nobody take this the wrong way, I'm not 'calling anyone out', but I do not understand the statement "trade what you see, not what you think"

for staters, I still have to think about what I see, and at the same time, I don't think the statement is meant to imply you shouldnt' think when you trade. I think it's a little bit silly, even if were just trading charts, there is always more than one possible outcome.; October 6, 2010 at 11:45 AM
Jennifer said...: Bye bye netflix...suddenly dropping like a rock.; October 6, 2010 at 11:49 AM
karen said...: Ben, I agree with you across the board.. thanks..; October 6, 2010 at 11:50 AM
72bat said...: k -
do us a favor, luv. give us a link to your tbp post. please don't make us read thru all the other comments. thx.; October 6, 2010 at 11:53 AM
72bat said...: sorry, my bad, didn't look first. just assumed there'd be a sh*tload of chaff to wade thru; October 6, 2010 at 11:56 AM
Jennifer said...: FCX seems to have gone parabolic.; October 6, 2010 at 11:57 AM
karen said...: darn it, bat!! i didn't want to go back there, and look he replied:

karen Says:
October 6th, 2010 at 11:35 am
Hindsight is 20/20.. this post wreaks of hubris.. and i find it hilarious..

~~~

BR: This is not me pounding my chest — as I have made it very clear in prior posts, we are still 50% cash. This is an observation of the armchair policy wonks who have missed the rally.; October 6, 2010 at 11:57 AM
karen said...: oh, Jenn, rub my face in it! my copper/gold miner in the tank and FCX going to the moon.. thanks.; October 6, 2010 at 11:58 AM
karen said...: just in:

Banks Holding Derivatives: Big Threat?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=1608051050&play=1; October 6, 2010 at 12:00 PM
72bat said...: K -
feel for you, but look at slw vs. ngx since '08 when my "advisor" unloaded all my slw; October 6, 2010 at 12:03 PM
karen said...: (i meant just in my inbox..) okay i'll be gone for about 20 min.. : )

that's for DL as I know he awaits my every word.; October 6, 2010 at 12:04 PM
I-Man said...: The premise of "trade what you see" is simply to remind you to not overthink trading... if the trend is up, it is up...

I think the spirit of it is to keep you from trading what you think, if it is in opposition to current price movement.

If you are a reversal trader, this is one of the toughest concepts to grasp.

I get into this struggle all the time, and most of the time, the best trade is what the market is doing, at that moment.

But you do have to think... thats the human element.

Algos dont think, they just trade. Thats why we will always have an edge.

Just some thoughts, getting I and I ass kicked in this range today... no conviction, alot of $$$ chewing going on.; October 6, 2010 at 12:05 PM
McFearless said...: you know why CV is an excellent blog host, because whether you agree with him or not, like what he says or not, you don't need some sort of decrypter to understand what he is saying or where he stands. Barry seems to have to explain what it is he means to say quite often.

I hope I can work on being as straightforward with people as possible in my lifetime.; October 6, 2010 at 12:06 PM
BinT said...: Well, finished until the mine opens. I noticed the pictures of CV have been removed...hmmmmm..

I still can't find the Economist story about the Investment Cycle that in their study of the markets of the entire time that stock markets existed (this was about 12-15 years ago) that the strongest correlation to rising equity prices was the availability of liquidity for stock purchases. Globally. But I assure you that is what the conclusion was.

That said, this is such an abberation. I don't know how long it can go on, but as Tepper and Barry said today, it is what it is. My own opinion, and I posted the lesser education white vote in November will go overwhelmingly against current policies on the Amen Ra post last night, that when the election results are in in November we may see the market decline. Not because Bernanke will be gone, but because analysts will see that Federal sponsorships of redistribution of taxes will stop due to the new makeup of the congress...

..just my two cents.; October 6, 2010 at 12:08 PM
karen said...: bruce.. from how many months ago.. i have a stack of economists.. okay.. i really gotta go now! just for a bit..; October 6, 2010 at 12:14 PM
BinT said...: Karen,

I photocopied that article and gave each member of my investing "group" a copy during the tech bubble, so it had to be prior to 1998. I have tried everything I know short of going to a library that has all the old Economists on electronic storage.

We used to get it in the office in my prior life.; October 6, 2010 at 12:17 PM
CV said...: @karen

While yacht shopper Barry is glibly deciding whether he should be right or make money...

Here's what the innocent "poor" people are dealing with...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/out-control-listen-terrifying-911-call-thugs-hired-jpmorgan-chase-breaking-down-door; October 6, 2010 at 12:26 PM
CV said...: @Bruce

That a**hole blog host at SC deleted my pictures...

Can you imagine that? This blog sucks!; October 6, 2010 at 12:27 PM
AmenRa said...: Low of 2.360% on the TNX? Damn!; October 6, 2010 at 12:36 PM
McFearless said...: "but because analysts will see that Federal sponsorships of redistribution of taxes will stop due to the new makeup of the congress"

but but, I thought that was what Obama was bringing to the table?

here's what I think it's going to be like by Thanksgiving:

Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.; October 6, 2010 at 12:37 PM
karen said...: I'm back! Bruce, can't you ask any of those people if they kept a copy of the article?? anyway, that's why stocks levitated in 2007/08; October 6, 2010 at 12:43 PM
karen said...: http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/06/citigroup-sells-credit-card-portfolio/?src=twt&twt=nytimesdealbook; October 6, 2010 at 12:44 PM
CV said...: @Amen

"Low of 2.360% on the TNX?"

That probably puts fair value on the S&P around 700...; October 6, 2010 at 12:45 PM
karen said...: OTTAWA (Dow Jones)--Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said Wednesday there is a danger that freely traded currencies will be "disadvantaged" by interventions and currency inflexibility.; October 6, 2010 at 12:47 PM
karen said...: in whatever! news: (Reuters) - Fitch cut Ireland's credit rating Wednesday and consumer morale slumped as the cost of cleaning up its banks hit home and the financial regulator warned of more bad news as the country's property market continues to unravel.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6952X220101006; October 6, 2010 at 12:49 PM
karen said...: U.S. Restaurant Sales Signal ‘Resiliency’ of Consumer Spending
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aYk2j_mwhAkA; October 6, 2010 at 12:50 PM
karen said...: (wishful thinking)

ChartLines - Dollar turnaround back up can be "surprise" for mkt, keen to see impact on yen also if euro turns back from the Fib test @mrtopstep descr.
26 minutes ago via Mobile Web
Retweeted by mrtopstep; October 6, 2010 at 12:53 PM
CV said...: @karen

Let's see... After 18 months...

- half of, what was, the competition, is now boarded up...
- The government extended unemployment benefits
- nobody is paying their mortgages or credit cards
- offer a $7.99 dinner plate

PRESTO... Restaurant sales up!

Now when the S&P drops below 1040... The rest of them will get boarded up...; October 6, 2010 at 12:56 PM
CV said...: BTW -

That John Stewart video link yesterday was hilarious...; October 6, 2010 at 12:58 PM
AmenRa said...: CV

That's the same thing I've been thinking about same store sales. It's up but there are far fewer stores.; October 6, 2010 at 12:58 PM
CV said...: TLT back up at 106...; October 6, 2010 at 1:00 PM
McFearless said...: did AT say he was leaving for Vegas yesterday? I just sent him a bunch of e-mails.; October 6, 2010 at 1:06 PM
CV said...: @Amen

I went out to eat last night (but mostly because most of the staff at the the restaurant I went to are all in a FF league with me)...

Anyway... It's a decent example because it's in a pretty decent area (yet it caters from casual to upscale)...

There are a decent amount of tables and it can get busy at times...

Tuesday's they feature "half price burger" night (and have for MANY years, way back before 2008)... Usually that PACKS the place, as the burgers are pretty good, and you can order anything off he menu anyway...

Mostly the people spend the same amount as they would for a normal dinner tab... What they save on the burgers, they just buy a few more drinks or appetizers to go with it...

Anyway - It wasn't all that PACKED yesterday... It wasn't DEAD either, but not even close to what it normally is...; October 6, 2010 at 1:06 PM
karen said...: i thot AT was posting from Las Vegas last night.. did you read that thread? you missed some fantastic fotos of CV..; October 6, 2010 at 1:07 PM
McFearless said...: my wife and I ate a cheesburger in paradise a few weeks ago, it was jam packed, took my cousin out this past weekend as he was in town, every place was booked solid Saturday night.

I haven't really seen what it's like a week-night though.; October 6, 2010 at 1:08 PM
McFearless said...: Luckily I saw them this morning, I was working on something at home last night so I couldn't get on much, I still can't believe he could do a full split, that was pretty impressive to me.; October 6, 2010 at 1:09 PM
McFearless said...: well, while I wouldn't mind eating a cheeseburger in paradise (which is in PA, ror), meant to say we ate at one....

I had several frou frou fruity madness drinks while I was there as well.; October 6, 2010 at 1:10 PM
CV said...: @McF

splits are easy... I can still do them now no problem...

It's the jumps that are hard...; October 6, 2010 at 1:13 PM
karen said...: did they have alcohol in them?? LOL; October 6, 2010 at 1:14 PM
BinT said...: My wife and I live about 3 miles from a rock quarry here in East Tennessee. Fellas, I live WAY out in the country.

Anyway, this quarry has been busy since we built our house. Often working all day Saturday and half days Sunday. The rock quarried from this place is sent all over North America for residential and commercial buildings.

For the last six weeks we've heard none of the occassional noises one hears from quarries so this weekend we took a hike to the quarry. All the equipment has been moved to storage sheds and the lubricants and other essentials carefully stacked and in order. No vehicle tracks. Dead as a doornail...closed.; October 6, 2010 at 1:15 PM
karen said...: i was a mess last night on less than a bottle of wine.. my nerves are shot.. meeting with a forensic contractor at 10:30 PT.. so I may be out of pocket for a bit : ); October 6, 2010 at 1:15 PM
karen said...: goog has given up a good half of yesterday's gains if anyone cares..; October 6, 2010 at 1:17 PM
BinT said...: http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aGlumShYwrhI

Dollar Drops to 15-year Low Against Yen as Companies Cut Jobs

"Companies in the U.S. unexpectedly cut 39,000 jobs in September, according to figures from ADP Employment. The median of a Bloomberg News survey of 37 economists projected 20,000 added jobs.

The Dollar Index, which IntercontinentalExchange Inc. uses to track the greenback against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners, reached 77.39 today, the lowest since Jan. 20.

“The negative dollar, this has been the big market driver and will continue to be,” said Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in New York. He said the Japanese will not intervene in the currency market before the G7 event scheduled for Oct. 8 in Washington.

Both the euro and the yen are “broadly in line with medium-term fundamentals,” the International Monetary Fund said, while the dollar is “on the strong side.”; October 6, 2010 at 1:19 PM
I-Man said...: TREND... we have TREND!; October 6, 2010 at 1:20 PM
BinT said...: So if the dollar is on the stong side......; October 6, 2010 at 1:20 PM
karen said...: and meanwhile in Germany...

Germany saw a surge in manufacturing orders in August, boosting hopes that Europe’s largest economy will still power growth across the continent even as the euro strengthens and the US recovery splutters.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d5e88d26-d13a-11df-8422-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss; October 6, 2010 at 1:25 PM
72bat said...: sw ohio employment picture update: we still haven't hired back all staff laid off in june '09. our latest hire just received her m.s. in chemical engineering @ uwisc madison. a lot paperwork involved though, since she's a chinese national. export blue collar jobs to china, import white collar professionals from china. go figure.; October 6, 2010 at 1:31 PM
I-Man said...: One more mini push into the next lower high?

Where my dogs at?; October 6, 2010 at 1:45 PM
arbitrage789 said...: McF @ 1:08

The "cheeseburger indicator".

Does that mean go long stocks?; October 6, 2010 at 1:55 PM
CV said...: @DL

No... I'm only buying stocks because of THE ELECTIONS...

And because Barry Ritholz said I needed to be "in" and make money, not "wrong" on the sidelines...; October 6, 2010 at 2:04 PM
I-Man said...: AT's about to get vindicated... are you smiling Andy?; October 6, 2010 at 2:06 PM
Rick Sanchez said...: Rithholtz is an ass, anyway. I have always thought so...; October 6, 2010 at 2:16 PM
Jennifer said...: Are there any really obvious economic events that would otherwise prevent the market from going down scheduled for tomorrow? Thinking of buying a few puts...; October 6, 2010 at 2:29 PM
Anonymous said...: Thinking that oil would be range bound at year end is turning out to be a mistake. I overwrote one of my energy positions in September (deep out of the money calls) and, low and behold, a 20 percent rally. I'm about 2 percent away from being short an in the money call. (ugh)

Luckily, my junior miner has been doing well.

Anyone up for gambling in shippers? Karen? :D; October 6, 2010 at 2:29 PM
I-Man said...: where's my catalyst at?; October 6, 2010 at 2:34 PM
McFearless said...: try the new catalyst app.; October 6, 2010 at 2:39 PM
McFearless said...: "Anyone up for gambling in shippers?"

only if it is a greek shipper, like DSX, I only buy greek.; October 6, 2010 at 2:40 PM
I-Man said...: Cant someone stir up a currency crisis real quick?; October 6, 2010 at 2:41 PM
BinT said...: Rosie and following, currency wars.

Good for a chuckle or two...; October 6, 2010 at 2:43 PM
Anonymous said...: http://video.ft.com/v/626138135001/US-headed-for-Japan-style-economic-slump-; October 6, 2010 at 2:43 PM
I-Man said...: Could be anything...

Greek, Dubai, Irish, Portugese, Chinese currency manipulation, Kim Jong buying dollars... anything.; October 6, 2010 at 2:43 PM
I-Man said...: Spanish insolvency...

give us sumthin...; October 6, 2010 at 2:44 PM
I-Man said...: yall hear bernanke was long GLD?; October 6, 2010 at 2:45 PM
I-Man said...: I heard Lloyd was selling spoos...

and Obama's long SSO calls.; October 6, 2010 at 2:48 PM
McFearless said...: ok one last comment on this:

do I want to be right or do I want to make money?

Um, I'm going to go for both, how about that?

also, how could you make money and be wrong?; October 6, 2010 at 2:48 PM
Anonymous said...: also, how could you make money and be wrong?

...Lloyd said the same thing...; October 6, 2010 at 2:53 PM
I-Man said...: Open a 3 trillion dollar FX account and buy dollars...; October 6, 2010 at 2:54 PM
McFearless said...: yeah, like I said, my question is fair because you can't be wrong and make money, you would have placed a bet directly against the winning outcome.

apparently the post was just a reminder not to fight the tape, so I repeat, I hope in my lifetime I can practice being straightforward with people.; October 6, 2010 at 2:57 PM
McFearless said...: Hussman says 5% growth on S&P over ten years.

so, check this, my old compliance supervisor asked me in 2008:

"why are you running the gross returns in your financial plan retirement analysis at 5%, it should probably be higher because historically.....(charlie browns mom's voice is all I heard after that)"

you know, cause compliance is there to help our clients by making sure I'm doing the right thing.; October 6, 2010 at 3:00 PM
I-Man said...: I think all those census workers were recruited to buy dips in the equity markets instead...

Maybe they all got no doc loans from GE Capital and GMAC, subsidized by the USG.; October 6, 2010 at 3:01 PM
AmenRa said...: HAHA. TNX closed at 2.399%. Couldn't get back to 2.4%. Balls in your court BB.; October 6, 2010 at 3:04 PM
I-Man said...: So CV... are you still as ripped as you were in those photos last night?

Or was that peak physical condition?; October 6, 2010 at 3:04 PM
McFearless said...: yeah, I wonder that myself I. CV, also, did you have to cut your water intake in order to get that cut?; October 6, 2010 at 3:06 PM
Jennifer said...: Maybe that's my problem...too much water. And all this time I thought it was too much time sitting in this chair in front of the computer monitor.; October 6, 2010 at 3:08 PM
Jennifer said...: Inspiration from Trader Mark: However, after being beaten like a seal by Ben Bernanke's club for 6 weeks straight you lose your fight, especially in a rigged market where Fed officials now blatnatly say out loud they are trying to manipulate asset prices. What a joke the market has become. An embarrassment.; October 6, 2010 at 3:10 PM
Jennifer said...: All the momos are falling apart...APKT is down 9% today.; October 6, 2010 at 3:13 PM
I-Man said...: Sounds like Trader Mark needs to step back a bit...

Shit cant fall apart unless most believe that the Fed will take care of everything...

Thats the whole point!; October 6, 2010 at 3:19 PM
karen said...: i'm back.. trying to catch up.. had to meet with several more contractors.. (a forensic one, general one, and waterproof one.)

shippers! i still have my dht.. do like the dividend... the price not so much.

water is good!! you guys are crazy! it's fat that is covering your muscles..; October 6, 2010 at 3:21 PM
CV said...: @I-Man/McF

I've been more "cut" than that for foto shoots and other things...

I wasn't training for "look" there, I was training for performance...

That's an all out, 2 minute, balls to the wall, lung busting routine... Just to get thru 2 minutes without puking, you naturally have to be in good shape...

So nothing special...

Not really even a lot of weight training, or much dieting... More sport specific training, and just eating to keep your energy up for 5-6 hours a day of training...

It's hard to eat really (because you have to mix it in with training)... Most of the time, by the time it came to eat, I was too tired, and had had to force myself to eat...; October 6, 2010 at 3:24 PM
McFearless said...: karen,

yeah I'm sure CV drank a ton of water when he was training but I know that a lot of bodybuilders go through some crazy stuff right before a competition to get that kind of muscle striation; October 6, 2010 at 3:24 PM
CV said...: @I-Man

That's why I think most of these exercise videos & programs that people sell are a load of horsecrap...

Anybody can get in shape doing anything, as long as there's an objective, and time dedicated to the purpose...

But you can waste your money if you want...; October 6, 2010 at 3:25 PM
I-Man said...: I cant even imagine the strength it takes to do that standing on one arm breakdancing move...

Sick...; October 6, 2010 at 3:26 PM
McFearless said...: CV,

when I was a hardcore runner doing 80-100 miles per week I would almost always ended up sick by the end of my season because I didn't eat properly, I never felt like eating after training like that but my body needed it. I got anemic as a result of this my junior year, which was a disaster, I was having a great season up to that point, major bummer.; October 6, 2010 at 3:26 PM
McFearless said...: CV,

You could probably outperform the nittany lion in one arm push-ups.; October 6, 2010 at 3:26 PM
I-Man said...: Thats kind of how I feel about shorting at the moment...

"you can waste your money if you want"

Jah knows I've tried a few times today...; October 6, 2010 at 3:27 PM
CV said...: @McF

Bodybuilders and posing routines are completely different than this...

A two minute routine is like running back to back 400 meter sprints (but instead of just running), you have to jump, do presses, high kicks, pushups, and smile & present all the time you're doing it...; October 6, 2010 at 3:28 PM
karen said...: this is the most different the indices have been for many months.. naz down 1.08.. dow up .03 and spx down .29; October 6, 2010 at 3:28 PM
McFearless said...: "A two minute routine is like running back to back 400 meter sprints"

well, I was a half-miler, so if it's like that, yeah, you throw up, ....often.

I also noticed you were detailing pointed toes and such, it looked hard.; October 6, 2010 at 3:30 PM
McFearless said...: karen,

I'm sure EWI will note tonight that the higher beta nas being down more means that P3 is imminent.; October 6, 2010 at 3:31 PM
CV said...: @I-Man

I want to see you "pancake" :-)

new foto in thread; October 6, 2010 at 3:33 PM
I-Man said...: I love this comment from poster "jw" on that ritholtz thread:

"Careful you don’t become a contrary indicator, since we’re now living in the bizarre world where it pays to fade the faders who thought they were fading the fade."

On point.; October 6, 2010 at 3:35 PM
Shortcrone said...: CV, I'm enamored of the parkour movement-have you watched any videos of their training? Lots of body weight stuff, some moves from gymnastics. Cool stuff, and interesting philosophy using the environment, challenging the way you confront barriers, etc. Good prep for the revolution.; October 6, 2010 at 3:36 PM
McFearless said...: who were those ladies with the signs CV, groupies?; October 6, 2010 at 3:36 PM
I-Man said...: Dude... I couldnt do that shit in my senior wrestling season...

No way I could do it now.; October 6, 2010 at 3:37 PM
karen said...: I-man.. i liked that comment, too! almost reposted it here ; )

CV.. pls.. how inferior do you want to make us feel !! and btw.. i have pulled my favorite fotos onto my desktop.. drag and drop.; October 6, 2010 at 3:37 PM
72bat said...: where are these fotos everyone is ogling?; October 6, 2010 at 3:41 PM
CV said...: @short crone

I'm sorry to say I'm not familiar with what you're referring to...

I'm a "basics" type...

In the end, it's calories in, calories out... Energy utilization profile... and type 2 fiber recruitment...

There are a lot of ways to achieve those ends...

That's why I don't like people coming along and saying "my way is the way to do it"...; October 6, 2010 at 3:42 PM
CV said...: @72

gone... vanished...; October 6, 2010 at 3:42 PM
CV said...: Like any comment that CV tries to put up on Ritzy's board...; October 6, 2010 at 3:43 PM
CV said...: You know... the last two times the dollar was down here...

The market was a lot lower 5 months afterwards...

Just saying...; October 6, 2010 at 3:46 PM
Shortcrone said...: Here's a link to a 4 part video series: long, but hey, what else can you do in this market? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Poph6Jmc688&p=98E854F495913919&index=1&feature=BF

After training for a triathlon, the idea of using the environment to develop your body and mind has been refreshing and inspiring. I'm not likely to be leaping from wall to wall, but I can incorporate strength development in my runs, etc.; October 6, 2010 at 3:47 PM
karen said...: I'm not sure how verifiable this data is but:

http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-cash-flows-etfs-2010-10; October 6, 2010 at 3:49 PM
karen said...: remember yesterday i pointed out Hyg:LQD.. well, look at it today.; October 6, 2010 at 3:52 PM
CV said...: On the subject of FLASH CRASHES...

Daneric had some words on the S&P trying to get back it's May FLASH CRASH candle... yada yada...

Well AAPL had a little "mini flash crash" last week, and it's still not managed to close a 60 minute candle to regain what was the level before...

Just saying...; October 6, 2010 at 3:52 PM
karen said...: short crone.. you mean they came up with a special name for just having fun?!; October 6, 2010 at 3:56 PM
Shortcrone said...: I think the British version is "general messing about"! What's interesting is that they meet to train, then do what looks to be incredible stunts. Later in the video they say that there are actually few serious injuries-just scrapes and bruises. My version is quite small-sometimes leaping onto park benches in the middle of my run.; October 6, 2010 at 3:58 PM
Shortcrone said...: I'm training for survival skills that will be needed in a post apocalyptic meltdown...; October 6, 2010 at 4:00 PM
CV said...: "My version is quite small-sometimes leaping onto park benches in the middle of my run."

---

When I want to beat myself up like that, I just go in and short some stocks...

Works fine!; October 6, 2010 at 4:04 PM
I-Man said...: How about a bowdrill forearm workout?

:); October 6, 2010 at 4:04 PM
karen said...: "The only solution is a long period of debt deflation, downsizing and economic rehabilitation, including a sustained downshift in consumption and corresponding rise in national savings"

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/david-stockman-us-is-in-race-to-the-fiscal-bottom-2010-10#ixzz11bwvpIvs; October 6, 2010 at 4:06 PM
karen said...: according to my friend, this is brilliant macro commentary.. i am going to listen now:

Part 1 with Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital...
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1608686095&play=1

Part 2 with Kyle Bass and Alan Fornier of Pennant Capital...
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1608699590&play=1

Part 3...
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1608700028&play=1; October 6, 2010 at 4:06 PM
McFearless said...: interesting reading the posts still over on that TBP threadm, it's a good social mood post, I often wonder how many of these blowhards have actually realized their huge gains cause they don't mean shit if they haven't. I cashed in every stock at SP 1k, so the gains became real and i was lucky to extract some money from the market....none of us are still faked out by paper right?

Also, if anyone is worried about fiat going up in smoke (silly I know because the Fed will take care of.....er...nevermind) well, you can't wait ini the name of not missing a rally because the doors that luckily are still open that allow you to get your money out of the country, safe, and accessible, well they are slowly closing, some did a while ago, by the time everyone wants to do it though, they will all be shut, it's too late then.

I guess though while the market is "massively rallying" that doesn't matter?, I mean, what kind of dumbass might be willing to deal with some opportunity cost by creating peace of mind in getting a portion of their assets safe.

also, note that bulls in frustration have resorted back to labeling anyone bearish as those that believe "the world will end", a bear is simply someone that thinks the trend of prices are going to be down for a time, the biggest bears I know are not calling for the end of the world, not even close.

anyway, the faith based movement led by the First Assembly of the Fed really puts most other religion to shame with the amount of faith the followers have in the "church"....; October 6, 2010 at 4:08 PM
karen said...: a good quick read!

http://fridayinvegas.blogspot.com/2010/10/what-is-eqix-telling-us.html; October 6, 2010 at 4:08 PM
CV said...: How about a little prediction?

I wouldn't be surprised to see a quick dip & return to 1130 this week...

Bad news in Asia overnight peeps?; October 6, 2010 at 4:09 PM
CV said...: gotta go peeps...

Check back later...; October 6, 2010 at 4:11 PM
karen said...: oh brother do I have a dangerous situation here.. a bin full of watermelon and lime juice..; October 6, 2010 at 4:11 PM
McFearless said...: lol karen; October 6, 2010 at 4:14 PM
Steve Hack-berg said...: EWI Update is early for the fine folks of Survivor Captial. That is what your subscription fee gets you, er, um, nevermind.

Minor 3 has begun - again.; October 6, 2010 at 4:17 PM
mcHAPPY said...: Oh yes, and I REALLY REALLY REALLY mean it this time.; October 6, 2010 at 4:18 PM
McFearless said...: here is a specific example of my bond post up top, this is WB via Rosie today:

"“They’re making a mistake, the ones that are buying the bonds ... It’s quite clear that stocks are cheaper than bonds. I can’t imagine anybody having bonds in their portfolio when they can own equities, a diversified group of equities. But people do because they lack of confidence. But that’s what makes for the attractive prices. If they had their confidence back, they wouldn’t be selling at these prices. And believe me, it will come back over time.”

there is no bigger mouth than his, so it's a bit hard to swallow this idea nobody thinks bonds are the wrong bet.

funny the "diversification" mention...market myth.; October 6, 2010 at 4:21 PM
I-Man said...: Ben, that reminds me of a quote that one of my first trading mentors used to say alot:

"Never confuse brains with a bull market."

The context was, dont think you're hot shit in a trade... ever. Gains... not brains.; October 6, 2010 at 4:21 PM
McFearless said...: also:

"There are now, according to the latest Commitment of Traders report, 79,796 short contracts on U.S. Treasuries on the Chicago Board of Trade, and there are 78,361 long contracts."; October 6, 2010 at 4:24 PM
I-Man said...: Diversification = Shotgun Approach

Asset Allocation = Shotgun Approach

If you have an idea, know it inside and out, and take your risk there... you cannot know everything.

So much of the wealth mgmt industry does the shotgun approach...; October 6, 2010 at 4:25 PM
McFearless said...: yeah, i'm in that school, if you've done your homework as a trader and you are confident and want to place your bet, you would not diversify, you would concentrate.; October 6, 2010 at 4:28 PM

«Oldest ‹Older 1 – 200 of 203 Newer› Newest»

Disclosure/Warning

This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.

TRADERS ANONYMOUS

Morning Audibles 10.7.10

203 comments:

Post a Comment

Disclosure/Warning

Fictional Character Quote of the Day:

About this Blog

Blog Archive

Search This Blog

AT's Wave Symbology