A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.
Creditcane: I think Blanky has a weather machine and is afraid to plug it in. It might short out the bots.
SPXBearish short day. Also is a bearish harami. Still holding above 1110. Back below the SMA(89) & SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above the weekly 3LB reversal price (1110.88). Above the trendline (3/6/09-5/25/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1095.34). QE2infinity.
DXYBearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) has been violated and now 80.95 (fib .09) has called 911. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 81.64).
VIXBullish short day. Bullish harami? Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. Still below the SMA(89) and below the SMA(144). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.25).
GOLDBullish short day. Resolved doji higher. Below the SMA(21), the SMA(89). Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above 14.6% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1195.70).
EURUSDBullish short day. Midpoint above the EMA(10). Tested and passed the SMA(144). Holding above 1.2935 (fib .1459). Still above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.2988).
JNKBullish short day again. Tested and closed above the 76.4% retrace. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 37.72).
GSSpinning top day. Still above 147.91 (fib .236). Midpoint above the EMA(10). The 38.2% retrace (153.99) was tested and failed. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 148.91).
10YR YIELDDoji day. Well below the 14.6% retrace. Sprinting towards the 0.0% retrace at 28.83. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below the SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 31.14).
DJ TRANS AVGBearish short day. Bearish harami? Still trading above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 4303.25).
LUMBERBearish long day. Back below the SMA(21). Back below the weekly 3LB mid. Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 194.60).
56 comments:
thank you, AR! as for this: Barnes & Noble says it may consider sale of company; shares jump 25% after hours
08/03/2010 04:56:35 PM
what if the buyer isn't willing to pony up..
Tomorrow's ADP will be more interesting than most, remember that we are now in the post-census phase of government hiring, with state and local job cuts beginning to hit, so that any weakness in private sector hiring is not going to be offset by government jobs.
If ADP is a stinker, nobody will wait for Friday, it will be sell, sell, sell. More likely than not we will get a blah number...
Quite a nice little summary here, we are short crude:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/macro-blues-overshadow-crude-oil
Meredith, on How The Banks Cooked The Books for Q2.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/meredith-whitney-even-more-bearish-housing-and-financials
Taken verbatim from poster Andrew Bissell at nakedcapitalism.
This is perfect and extremely well written:
I’m confused. I thought that the liquidation that was under way in 2008 had to be short-circuited to help the middle class & poor, so they could still get credit to buy overpriced, unaffordable goods & services with their low wages. What is the conventional economic wisdom, if not that? Now it turns out the whole thing was just a rescue operation to keep the illiquid assets of the wealthy from being properly reassessed at their true values?
What productive, useful, and sustainable restructuring or triage of the economy was accomplished by the bailouts? I would argue, none. They were the worst of all possible outcomes, a continued looting of the lower & middle classes to bail out the elites. Now, when the bailouts inevitably fail, the government will be in an even worse position to provide the assistance which the bailouts’ proponents claim to desire.
The best outcome for the middle class & poor would have been for the government to try and minimize the damage to Main Street, propping up the productive economy while thoroughly restructuring and/or liquidating the excess debt and dreck on Wall Street (and in the portfolios of the wealthy). Failing that, it seems to me it would have been an infinitely better outcome for the middle class for the liquidation to simply have been allowed to proceed without interruption, regardless of the additional pain which would have had to be endured in the short run. In the resulting mass default the phantom “assets” of the middle class might have vanished in a cloud of smoke, but so would have their debt burdens.
Meanwhile, splitts-ville for Bristol and Levi.....AGAIN. Good to see America's wannabe first family is keeping us entertained.
http://www.boston.com/ae/celebrity/articles/2010/08/03/bristol_palin_calls_it_quits_with_fiance/?p1=Upbox_links
Leftback.
Looks like some rich Chinese guy taking over Liverpool football? Say it isn't so!
I like that Bissell reference above. Good stuff. Agree with all that.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Bucky done gunned (M.I.A. reference there) me today....
Oh well.
At least I wasn't a-hole long that thing...not yet anyway. Ha.
I still like the Greenback a bit here, but must admit there is zero sign of bottoming action. Won't buy anymore until that thing shows me something.
Andy,
The old yen short has burned me too.
Anyone but Hicks and Gillett.
TOTALLY understand the Mad Men thing. The women are beyond sexy for some reason, maybe it's the men are men, women are women aspect of it. Today's androgyny is confusing at times, not that LB is much of a Metrosexual.
ADP/NFP shocker is the only thing to drive BUCKY north. Doubt if it will happen. Nic has been watching DXY close in on some key levels.
Have been learning to trade crude, and the long bond, but above all, getting better at trading small, tight and fast. Results have been good.
Nice little snippet on how the Government spends our money to stimulate the economy.
This is why I'm a fan of smaller government and government spending. The dollars inevitably get spent in really, really stupid ways.
All of these projects that seem lame to most of the people probably seemed like a decent idea to the folks with the purse strings. Tis' better not to give them any money....
http://www.businessinsider.com/mccain-100-wasteful-stimulus-projects-2010-8
LB.
I won't trade the Yen anymore. Haven't done so in a long time. The moves are just too erratic and WAY too volatile and weird hours of the day.
The Yen has felt very much like a casino at times.
Personal BK's up. Recovery onward.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/08/personal-bankruptcy-filings-up-9-in.html
Andy T
The weekly chart and daily chart look alike. No reversal candles on either. Just long or short bearish candles.
Not sure if posted already, but his fantastic.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gmi-describes-future-recession-ongoing-depression-must-read-report
@Mannwich(8:11)
Check the comment section of that post. Robot trader posted some fotos of his visit to Vegas. No soup lines or recession there. From one casino(stock market) to another.
"ADP/NFP shocker is the only thing to drive BUCKY north."
gonna have to disagree with this, there was no adp/nfp shocker when it put in the bottom last fall, in fact, the reason nobody likes to talk about the dollar bottom is because there was in fact no news at all, it was "technical"
and regarding the above, what would a "shocker" even be with ADP/NFP...shocking how?
@Anon: Interesting. I believe it. The upper-upper end doing just fine, maybe better than ever. Friends of ours with much fancier tastes than us (and more money to spend, apparently) just got back from overseas spending some time in the south of France, and they can attest that they'd never seen so much flaunted wealth in display in their lives. Ferraris parked on yachts. Helicopter pads on those yachts. The "cheapest" cars there are Mercedes Benz's. Not kidding.
my wealthiest clients haven't really skipped a beat during any of this, have they scaled back some spending, maybe, but still able and doing pretty much what they want. certainly wouldn't call it a struggle.
@AndyT,
they are offering a new designation, CEWA, Certified Elliott Wave Analyst. I'm sure you could pass in a breeze if you were interested. Looks like it's about $1,500 all in and if you pass above a certain rate you can teach through EWI for a fee...fyi.
Leftback, to me, it's this simple: If the top 1% own 50% of financial assets, then out of the $2 trillion pumped into the economy a whopping $1 trillion went to the top 1%. (And what was the real amount of money pumped in, including guarantees and BS low-interest financing to companies that no one else would've lent to but Ben and the Establishment? Practically half of whatever figure that is went to the top 1%.)
Who the f*** is pointing out this inequity on TV? (And *that* angers me, too.) We should be pissed and protesting in the streets over this.
And what should have happened instead? Most of the rich would've:
- Lost whatever they had in every bank account over the FDIC limit.
- Lost all equity valuation in every POS business (half the S&P and most of the financials).
- Taken significant haircuts on bonds in every POS business.
Think about that for a second: Had we allowed the numerous, overleveraged, decrepit companies running shit business models to fail -- like they should've -- then inside of a single year we would've witnessed the most dramatic *reduction* in the gap between rich and poor -- the most dramatic reduction ever in history probably (absent dissolution of a sovereign nation and its currency). It would've been the most dramatic improvement in the purchasing power of the middle class. The rich would've lost most of their purchasing-power-advantage over the middle class.
via EWIFF:
"...conclusion offered in a study by Nanex, a provider of market data:
What benefit could there be to whomever is generating these extremely high quote rates? After thoughtful analysis, we can only think of one. Competition between HFT systems today has reached the point where microseconds matter. Any edge one has to process information faster than a competitor makes all the difference in this game. If you could generate a large number of quotes that your competitors have to process, but you can ignore since you generated them, you gain valuable processing time. This is an extremely disturbing development, because as more HFT systems start doing this, it is only a matter of time before quote-stuffing shuts down the entire market from congestion."
Leftback, to be sure, I completely agree with your repost from Bissell. (When I said "it's this simple", I don't mean my remarks as any way contradictory. I'm just saying the poor and middle class should focus on the gargantuan amount of money given to the top 1% and demand the money back.)
but wunsacon, a depression like that would be armageddon,..... or so we are all lead to believe.
wunsacon-
dude- are you a commie?
the rich got to where they are because of superior education, intelligence and hard work-
c'mon man- get with the program!
. . .and think about it- keeping asset prices up only helps the little man-
would you rather have him be 200% underwater instead of 150?
you see- it was all for the common good
Wunsacon:
...You are becoming more the East Tennessean...
The Clintons doing their part to stimulate the economy - spent $3.5- 5 million on their daughter's wedding. No depression there.
Also, BMW(German auto) just had a stellar second quarter( via marketwatch.com).
What recession?
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Economic-recovery-falls-to-apf-3296423844.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=
Economic recovery falls to thrifty consumers
American consumers are saving more and seeking better deals, decisions that could slow hiring
...Er, no. The only way we get out of this is for the overly indebted consumer to repair his/her balance sheet. No matter what the Sirens in Washington call out for us to do...
G'Night...
Manny
I just finished reading that. Very nice article.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/08/03/300556/the-secured-lending-boom-through-gold-tinted-glasses/
Good story on Gold swaps and T repos.
Spending a few days catching up with the world.
Agreed Amen. He certainly makes a very strong data and graphs-backed case for not only a double dip recession but a possibly depression.
DR Horton: A "challenging time for the home-building industry." Ya think?
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/08/dr-horton-conference-call-comments-no.html
The top 1% "own" all of the debt.
Even if the little guy were to get his hands on some of the government largess, the little guy would pay off his debt with it and make the bad debt good for the top 1%.
Heads I win, tails you lose.
If you are in a norther location (or southern hemisphere), look up tonight. Good chance for norther lights, as per Iman's post about the solar flare.
spaceweather.com
northern, same typo twice.
What time, bob? Do you have a rough estimate?
Tough to time it, more of a probability thing. More probable tonight and tomorrow night than usual.
Bruce, the folks in East Tennessee deserve the bailout money more than the people in DC and NYC who created businesses that made us all poorer over 10 years rather than richer.
Frankly, if Ben *didn't* distribute the bailout money equally to every American (and legal, tax-paying resident alien) but dumped $4 trillion in East Tennessee, *that* would be relatively more "just" than what he did.
Sheesh...I'm getting worked up. (Lefty, your post hit a nerve!)
:nytol: Gonna try to distract myself with some more work...
Manny,
I can't find a best time to view them but from what I've been reading you should have plenty of opportunity to see the lights over the next few years in case you don't see them tonight.
OK, cool. Thanks guys.
You idiots!
We need a BIGGER STIMULUS!
evening! I wanted to post the Meredith interview but was beat to it.. I actually didn't get that Bissell comment at all, but whatever. the only important chatter i'm seeing elsewhere is on whether Israel launches an attack and the ensuing spike in crude and gold.. planning on an early/immediate bedtime to be bright eyed and early at tomorrow's table..
(is ahab missing? or posting under a name I don't know..)
Smedrick.
ahab = smedrick, karen.
ha! really? i thot that was CV..
http://blogs.wsj.com/wealth/2010/07/28/young-affluent-investors-feel-burned/
Most Overbot ETFs
Another lower high in gold?
I think that's ahab.
this surprised me:
Whole Foods met EPS expectations at 38 cents a share. It beat on the top-line, with $2.16 billion in sales versus a $2.14 billion expectation. The upscale grocer’s recessionary moves of lowering prices and expanding its private-label offerings have lifted sales resulted in an 88% rise in profits for the fiscal third quarter. The company also aised its yearly earnings guidance to $1.37 to $1.39 a share, up from its previous target of $1.33 to $1.37 a share. Still, the market seems to be in no mood to celebrate. Shares are down 6% in after hours trading.
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2010/08/03/whole-foods-down-after-earnings/
ben, some interesting comments on your 11:10!
Not me, karen. Think of who shops at Whole Paycheck. Not J6P.
Alan Greenspan is making UK weatherman Michael Fish look like a good forecaster
Alan Greenspan appears to have taken to heart the old adage that "if you can't forecast well, forecast often".
a sweet bedtime read! (oops.. i gets more serious and some of the comment are harsh! : )
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeremy-warner/7923047/Alan-Greenspan-is-making-UK-weatherman-Michael-Fish-look-like-a-good-forecaster.html
More Workers Face Pay Cuts, Not Furloughs
NY Times08/04/2010 06:02 AM
* STORY * PHOTO * VIDEO * California Democrats Seek Higher Income Tax, Oil Levy
Bloomberg08/04/2010 04:19 AM
...These two conflicting headlines are from the Prudent Bear this morning...it appears to me there is a segment of society that just will not accept smaller government, even as pressures on the funders of the government, the taxpayers and workers, come under increasing pressure. And good golly Miss Molly, tax increases are coming!
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38541834/ns/business-us_business/
Mexicana airlines files for bankruptcy protection
Nation's largest air carrier fails to reach labor pact with pilots, attendants
..This airline will be back in business, and amazingly, the Mexican taxpayer won't foot the bill...
...(My wife says the US should bail them out!!! But she has her snark on this morning.)
And Missouri (not Texas or an Arizona) overwhelmingly defeats a portion of Obamacare...
...early November, and I think lame duck status, but I suppose that will mean more speeches on TV...
...there's always bowling...
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