I must be honest here--my heart just wasn't into looking at markets after this weekend's World Cup matches, with both the US and England getting bounced. (More on this later.)
In terms of markets:
- Too many people are talking about the developing head and shoulder top on the S&P 500. I hate when that happens because it increases the chances it won't develop. It seems like a pattern likely to disappoint and frustrate over the next several weeks.
- I see more choppy upward-bias correction coming in the S&P this week. It's difficult to visualize the market falling hard around the quarter end. It seems fitting that "new money" must flow in before the next meaningful correction lower.
- The DXY looks like it needs more time to correct lower. It could chop as low as 80 and still be considered bullish. So, keep the powder dry there.
Some USA/England World Cup Thoughts....
The U.S. Team just looked “gassed.” I think the intensity of the last couple of games finally caught up with them. Jozy Altidore, in particular, looked in need of better conditioning and diet. At times he looked clumsy and slow. If the U.S.
The
22 comments:
Well, I learned some things this week. I spent the week in Minnesota in the Twin Cities area for a family reunion. I now know that:
Wisconsin is held together with corn fields and pine trees. Very little else.
People in Minnesota actually do say "Yah"
We went to a bluegrass festival in Marine on St. Croix Friday. No banjos! Apparently Peeps in the frozen north don't know if it ain't got a banjo, it ain't bluegrass...I mentioned this to my architect cousin,and amazingly he knew this fact already.
Minnesota residents don't handle "silly" humour well. Very serious group. And don't make sport of the fact that 100% of the highways are being repaved in the short summer season. They tend to look for a rock to throw at you when you speak in this way...
At my reunion, we spent some time talking about snowstorms they had seen, and how much of the winter was spent below zero centigrade...sounded pretty frostbiteish to me...
Turned out, I liked everyone I met...(not always the case, in my case...)
Anyway, back and ready to rolllllll!
Thanks Andy, I share your mood.
First time in ages wasn't excited for the Sydney open tonight.
I was more impressed with USA than England. I thought team USA played their hearts out to the final whistle.
The Guardian said that Rooney lost the ball by being tackled in possession more than any other player at the entire WC.
The storm heading for Mexico is upgraded to a Hurricane Alex. 100mph winds expected.
June 27 (Bloomberg) -- Group of 20 leaders endorsed targets to cut deficits and agreed to pursue higher capital requirements for banks once their economic recoveries take root.
Advanced economies will aim to at least halve deficits by 2013 and stabilize their debt-to-output ratios by 2016, according to a statement released as leaders finished meeting in Toronto today. The G-20 said banks need to raise capital “significantly” and countries will be allowed to phase in new rules, with a goal of meeting new standards by the end of 2012.
“Honestly, this is more than I expected, because it is quite specific,” German Chancellor Angela Merkel said, referring to the fiscal targets. “It’s a success that industrialized countries as a group accepted this.”
...Well, now in the chess endgame, we easily see who has the white and black pieces. If I could paraphrase Ms. Merkel: "Spend yourselves silly if you like, but the grownups have to worry about driving the car."
...I didn't see any language about stimulus...
..sorry, I meant NEW stimulus:
"“Here is the tightrope we must walk,” Harper told the G- 20 leaders in his opening remarks today. “To sustain the recovery, it is imperative that we follow through on existing stimulus plans. At the same time, advanced countries must send a clear message that as our stimulus plans expire, we will focus on getting our fiscal houses in order.”
When you get angry at the MSM and TPTB for all of their BS you will need something like this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fvRkGglLe-U
The G20 plan calls for the US to cut its existing budget deficit to only 3% of GDP by 2013.
For the US this would represent a decline from a $1.4 trillion deficit to a roughly $420 billion deficit, or ~$1 trillion in cuts in just three years.
Orszag just jumped ship, which means you have Summers, Geithner, Obama & Romer to make that happen...
Place your bets...
On Friday, I was worried of a "face-ripper" squeeze come Monday morning due to G20 announcements of "new stimulus". Thankfully, not happening.
*But*, I bet the Obama administration talks of "reducing deficits" while Bernoccio prints and gives away more cash for non-assets from connected TBTF recipients. QE to infinity -- and beyond!
Great update, as usual, Andy.
I am wondering about exceeding 1131 though. April 26-May 25 was 21 trading days. May 25 to June 21 (1131) was 18 trading days. If we break back above 1131, it would stand to reason that the drop from 1219-1040 was not minor 1 as I had been working off. I know time is the least reliable for EW but would it be safe to assume that a corrective wave should not last longer than the previous impulsive wave? My assumption that a minor 3 has begun is based off this.
I would agree this wave action down is not impulsive - yet - and it does look incomplete. I am not going to be too upset if wrong - I'm getting quite good at that, you know - but I would expect we are still working on the first leg of minor 3.
I could see an end at 1060/1040 or down to 1020/00. It would appear that we could make arguments for being in a Regardless of where this ends, we will see 1090-1100 range again. There are some small gaps to be filled at 1080 and 1090.
There really are a lot of possibilities out there right now. I guess the only comfort to take is knowing we will be much lower sooner rather than later.
Also, if or when we get down to the end of intermediate 1, intermediate 2 is going to be a face ripper for shorts. I think the slope of hope will be alive and quite well as I cannot see that gap at 1200 getting filled without pushing to new highs in the shorter-intermediate term. Given the wave count thus far, I think that would be a stretch.
I'm pretty sure 1131 ended a correction, on with the slaying of the bulls already.
I do not think anyone who truly expects these cuts to happen. Sure, attempts will be made but the reality is this is more lip-service.
The only question I have right now is do we exceed 1085 or break 1067? Funny how 1076 is smack dab in the middle.
Is Obama pulling a play from the GWB playbook of weapons of mass destruction?
I-Man has been in a piss sour mood since Saturday... cant figure it out.
Thanks for the charts, Andy T.
Looking over the monthly's of eurusd, audjpy, audusd...
How the F could anyone in their right mind get long risk at the moment?
The only one of those charts (more like sharts) that looks remotely bullish is the eurusd chart, but thats just because its been beaten up more, and you would tend to assume that 1.13 support would hold... but thats a dangerous assumption to make in this environment.
sharts... awesome.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yvh7JfaLXqQ
Chemical burns?
McFearless
Read this blog post, I think your authoritarianism has arrived in Ontario.
This guy is not a Libertarian nutbar, he used to anchor the 6 o'clock news on TV Ontario and now he hosts a current affairs show.
I just don't get this.
This looks like normal people, unarmed and protesting peacefully on a residential street, being shot with rubber bullets and tear gas. Sad day for this city, I can't wait to leave.
I actually thought this was a hoax:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Heb9BXjYcII
NFP gaming has begun: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/private-payrolls-on-the-rebound-economists-say-2010-06-27
What I don't get is what, exactly, these G20 protesters want.
Lots of media coverage about the conflict; one would think that there would be at least one journalist would would bother to ask one of the protesters what they want.
Hey Bruce - My wife and I were in that VERY town (Marine on the St. Croix) earlier today for a hike in William O'Brien State park (to celebrate our 7th year anniversary) and then lunch in town at the Brookside Tavern. Nice little quaint town. Might have just missed you!
You're right about Minnesotans though - many natives do not have much of a sense of humor (although many do, it just takes time to find them). A very stoic people overall. My wife complains about it all the time but we now have a good group of friends here, many of whom can be just as silly as we are, although many of them aren't really from here too.
@ben et al: Went to a party for our neighbor's 40th b-day on the 50th floor of the IDS Center in downtown Minneapolis.
The floor level where we are parked in the garage? "P3". Not kidding. Had a good chuckle over that one. A sign, perhaps? ;-)
Brings new meaning to the term "Mannwich Indicator"...
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