TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Audibles 6.30.10 - Let the CRAZY IVANS Begin!

Morning Audibles 6.30.10 - Let the CRAZY IVANS Begin!

Yesterday... With a TRIN of 5.88, CV basically has nothing to say except...

"Let the CRAZY IVAN's begin"... (Hey - It's damn near 4th of July weekend - right?)...

The baffles is the area in the water directly behind a submarine or ship through which a hull-mounted sonar cannot hear. This blind spot is caused by the need to insulate a sonar, commonly mounted near the bow, from the noise of the vessel's machinery.

Following a vessel by hiding in its baffles was a common submarine surveillance technique during the Cold War, which led to the tactics of "clearing the baffles".

Variants of this technique include the "Crazy Ivan", a baffle-clearing manoeuvre intended to bring the followed submarine onto an attack heading and typically used by the Soviet Navy...

Seaman Jones: Conn, sonar! Crazy Ivan!
Capt. Bart Mancuso: All stop! Quick quiet!
[the ships engines are shut down completely]
Beaumont: What's goin' on?
Seaman Jones: Russian captains sometime turn suddenly to see if anyone's behind them. We call it "Crazy Ivan." The only thing you can do is go dead. Shut everything down and make like a hole in the water.
Beaumont: So what's the catch?
Seaman Jones: The catch is, a boat this big doesn't exactly stop on a dime... and if we're too close, we'll drift right into the back of him.

299 comments:

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McFearless said...: interesting read:

http://mises.org/daily/3136; June 30, 2010 at 1:03 AM
karen said...: How annoying is that, starting a new thread TOO early.. i idid like Hunt for Red October, tho "Blind Man's Bluff" was the 'right stuff' for me.; June 30, 2010 at 1:07 AM
CV said...: Sorry karen...

I'm just SUPER tired...

And if something BLOWS UP tonight, I'm not sure if I'd have time to get it "editorialized" & published by 8AM or so (New York time), where a lot of readers would be ready to pour in and add comments to the DAY's news (not last evenings)...

So... an EXECUTIVE decision...

- Get it started
- Add as needed; June 30, 2010 at 1:14 AM
CV said...: Sincerely,

Charles Foster Kane; June 30, 2010 at 1:15 AM
BinT said...: Seagulls must fly over the sea
If they flew over the bay
They'd be called bagels.

Way too early (had to get a Tums)

...Probably time for a relief rally soon...they do happen...

Congress can't quit spending...I see.; June 30, 2010 at 3:58 AM
Anonymous said...: Condition of AIG rescue blocks lawsuits against trading partners
When the U.S. government bailed out American International Group, it required the firm to give up the right to sue Goldman Sachs and other major banks that were its trading partners. Until recently, the rule, which takes away AIG's right to pursue claims for possible fraud involving mortgage securities, was unknown outside a few Wall Street legal departments, according to The New York Times.; June 30, 2010 at 7:31 AM
McFearless said...: Dip buyers in China:

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aoG2qkHmFUxo&pos=3; June 30, 2010 at 7:40 AM
McFearless said...: wow, this discussion on CNBC right now is really something....this is worth viewing for everyone.; June 30, 2010 at 8:08 AM
McFearless said...: Steve Liesman: "That's the part I don't understand, can't the Fed just make inflation reality since you control it"

the Fed's Evans cannot answer the question.

Steve Liesman: "Well, is it a political problem"

Fed's Evans: "no"

wow.....; June 30, 2010 at 8:11 AM
AmenRa said...: ADP expected 60k came in at 13k. Whoosh.; June 30, 2010 at 8:15 AM
McFearless said...: WTF!?

my morning rounds to the blogs and there is discussion about double dip everywhere...

who gives a shit if we double dip or not, really....

people were in heavy debate well into the spring of 2008 about whether or not we were in a recession, and NBER as far as I know, still hasn't called the end of that recession, all this double dip talk is a complete waste of time for anyone trying to make money in the markets.

Now if you want to be an economist well then I understand the discussion on double dip, but really, most of these people discussing it aren't Phd's, so it's an overall waste of time, and further, I'm a little doubtful that coming into 2010 that interest in people becoming economists was on the rise.

Probably top five most ridiculed profession in the last few years yet it's the profession the net of market participants currently want to be in imo.; June 30, 2010 at 8:19 AM
AmenRa said...: ADP June 2010 Report

Nonfarm private employment increased 13,000 from May to June 2010 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report®. The estimated change in employment from April to May 2010 was revised up slightly, from the previously reported increase of 55,000 to an increase of 57,000.

June’s rise in private employment was the fifth consecutive monthly gain. However, over these five months the increases have averaged a modest 34,000 (avg was 39000 last month). Recent ADP Report data suggest that, following steady improvement through April, private employment may have decelerated heading into the summer. The slow pace of improvement from February through June is consistent with other publicly available data, including a pause in the decline of initial unemployment claims that occurred during the winter months.; June 30, 2010 at 8:21 AM
AmenRa said...: Ben

I don't want to be an economist but I have read books on economic indicators and the theories of Mises and Keynes. I also stayed at a Holiday Inn Express.; June 30, 2010 at 8:26 AM
McFearless said...: Ra,
lol

and interestingly enough both camps predict inflation right now

completely different approach with the exact same conclusions because they use data that won't allow them to forecast but to predict the past.

I read mises site almost every day, majority are inflationist gold bugs.; June 30, 2010 at 8:29 AM
CV said...: @McF

With regards to "recession", or double dip...

Look - It's a completely misunderstood thing to begin with...

From yesterday (posted this)...

"Obama returned June 27 from a summit of the Group of 20 nations, where leaders agreed on a target for advanced economies to at least halve deficits by 2013 and stabilize their debt-to- output ratios by 2016.

Concerns about the global recovery have added to stress in the credit markets. Company debt offerings declined 3.8 percent last week to $38.6 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. U.S. Treasuries are having their best year since 1995, returning 5 percent through June 24, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data, as investors seek alternatives to Europe, where Greece and Spain had their credit ratings downgraded.

Economy ‘Strengthening’

While there remains work to do to on the economy, Obama said he and Bernanke share “the view that the economy is strengthening, that we are into recovery.”

Obama said that in the U.S. there is “great concern about the 8 million jobs that were lost” since the recession began in December 2007.

Even there, Obama conveniently left out the idea that we ever LEFT the recession in the first place...

So did we, or didn't we?

It seems like last year, they were trying as hard as they could to take credit that the recession was over... Now, if we start to "double dip" they can MOONWALK a little and say things like IT'S PROBLEMATIC, IT TAKES MORE TIME, IT'LL TAKE MORE MONEY, YOU NEED A PHD, IT'S ALL EUROPE'S FAULT, IRAN IS GETTING IN THE WAY...

By November, it'll be "Republicans are blocking the agenda"...

DOUBLE DIP?

Someone who'd worked at a DAIRY QUEEN ought to know what one of those was, but OOPS, you never worked in one of those, did you?; June 30, 2010 at 8:41 AM
CV said...: Anyway... CV tends to think MOST PEOPLE think of a recession as the stock market going down, and unemployment a little higher...

That's what it is to MOST PEOPLE... Screw all the Steve Liesman analysis...; June 30, 2010 at 8:43 AM
Fed said...: Daily Treasury statement...
Withheld employment and employment taxes...
Fiscal year to date...
June 28, 2010 - $1,253,227M -2.46%
June 29, 2009 - $1,284,864M -5.34%
June 27, 2008 - $1,357,287M +3.94
June 28, 2007 - $1,305,795M

not much growth here last couple of years...; June 30, 2010 at 8:47 AM
CV said...: @Amen

Now this will be interesting if there is a little chart gap down on the open at 1040...

Hansel & Gretel have to drop their breadcrumbs you know...; June 30, 2010 at 8:56 AM
McFearless said...: 09-10 drop much smaller than 08-09

green shoots

I also slept at a Holiday Inn last night.; June 30, 2010 at 8:56 AM
Anonymous said...: it seems like last year, they were trying as hard as they could to take credit that the recession was over

what? no "mission accomplished" banner- or am I mixing up my administrations?; June 30, 2010 at 9:03 AM
AmenRa said...: As much as they deride ADP it is an accurate representation of small business. Plus the direction ADP moves is usually the way NFP moves. Which means BO, BB, and TG are already on the phone to get NFP massaged.; June 30, 2010 at 9:04 AM
karen said...: good morning! my head feels like i drank too much last night.. maybe it's just a lack of coffe--or some complicated emails i wanted to address quickly that propelled me from cozy bed with iphone to wrapped in blanket sitting at laptop!; June 30, 2010 at 9:04 AM
CV said...: @McF

"green shoots" - LOL

When the DOW goes to 400, they'll be saying "Oh look! the DOW only lost 40 points today" (a 10% drop)...

That's better than those crazy days when it was losing 300 points a day!; June 30, 2010 at 9:06 AM
Anonymous said...: wow- b22- Liesman- what an eff'ing buffoon-

prays at the alter of the Fed obviously; June 30, 2010 at 9:06 AM
CV said...: @karen

If I were you, I'd ignore those kinds of e-mails at all cost and stick to the cozy bed...

But that's just me... :-); June 30, 2010 at 9:07 AM
CV said...: @ahab

"what? no "mission accomplished" banner- or am I mixing up my administrations?"

Well, the CURRENT guys, at least, didn't something idiotic & sophomoric like flying a jet onto an aircraft carrier... But I do remember pulling out headlines on these blog sites about Geithner/Summers/Bernanke & the rest beating their chests back in December and basically saying the problem was licked...; June 30, 2010 at 9:10 AM
CV said...: @Amen

"Which means BO, BB, and TG are already on the phone to get NFP massaged."

I wonder if they're using the SHOE PHONE or the CONE OF SILENCE...; June 30, 2010 at 9:12 AM
Anonymous said...: CV-

dude- all's they need do is order all cities to drape a "mission accomplished- recession over" banner across "main street"-

and the nation will breath a sigh of relief-

or we could call it VR day- victory over recession- or better yet-

VD day- lol; June 30, 2010 at 9:17 AM
Mack said...: -McFearthis

Evans looked like a giant d-bag this morning. Sad to wake up and see a giant helmet like that.

And why do I keep trying to short silver as opposed to anyother benchmark???; June 30, 2010 at 9:19 AM
Bert the Dealer said...: @ MCF
more "green shoots"

minimum wage increase; June 30, 2010 at 9:20 AM
CV said...: @ahab

"VD Day" - LOL

(The ultimate in realizing that you were truly F***ED)...; June 30, 2010 at 9:21 AM
Anonymous said...: @CV, "Counter Intuitveness". Brilliant.

I call that critical thinking.; June 30, 2010 at 9:23 AM
CV said...: @Mack

CV is now a cheerleader for silver...

I just found this big stash of old silver coins in the basement...; June 30, 2010 at 9:23 AM
karen said...: back with my coffee after a battle with my press! how scary.. not sure what that portends for the day.; June 30, 2010 at 9:27 AM
karen said...: if anyone wants an abandoned baby, look at monday's JNK candle.; June 30, 2010 at 9:32 AM
Anonymous said...: BR-

always redeeming himself- this is a very funny post dressing down Kartik Athreya-

Economics is Easy; Comedy is Hard; June 30, 2010 at 9:34 AM
Mack said...: CV
-just my luck! i'm selling immediately!; June 30, 2010 at 9:35 AM
karen said...: Is GLD too big?; June 30, 2010 at 9:35 AM
AmenRa said...: I see they're holding up the market until Chicago PMI is released. So f'in obvious.; June 30, 2010 at 9:38 AM
Anonymous said...: I couldn't agree w/ this more-

US Must Cut Public Sector or Fall Like Rome: Zell

"The old game was very simple. If you worked for the government, you had job security, you got less but you got a longer pension," he said. But over the past 10 years, a job in public sector is paying significantly more and the benefits "are literally bankrupting the states."

exactly; June 30, 2010 at 9:39 AM
McFearless said...: you all want some insight into the retail mind, well you are getting it anyway if not:

Met with these clients on 4/22/10, at that time I removed every last bit of stock in their accounts 100%, added shorts, though not a lot, and rounded out the account with purchases of TLT, BND, and held a bunch of cash, and spent over an hour going through the reasons why, sentiment, etc.

obviously that worked out pretty good for us, and then, like clockwork, I get this e-mail from the client this morning:

"Heard lots on the news that things will be dropping again. Is this the drop you were predicting or do you think it is an interim phase?"

Will be dropping again?

come again?

but hey, the experts on the news said.....

and btw, same client sent me this email two days prior to the 4/22/10 mtg:

"I'd like to discuss strategies that help us take advantage of the upswing in the market"

so there you have it; June 30, 2010 at 9:51 AM
Anonymous said...: Chicago Manufacturing Index Lower at 59.1, but Meeting Expectations

and there we have it- far be it to increase in this robust recovery we've been having; June 30, 2010 at 9:53 AM
McFearless said...: "And why do I keep trying to short silver as opposed to anyother benchmark???"

Mack, I hear you man, I'm off that trade at this point, plenty of other places to get involved, way too hard in there right now.; June 30, 2010 at 9:54 AM
Anonymous said...: b22-

do you ever want to grab your customer's and shake them and say- WTF is wrong w/ you?

at the height of the housing bubble- customer's use to ask me all the time- "when should I sell my home?"-

and I would say- "right now!"

and then- they would invariably say- "I think I will wait- my realtor said it should be worth more in a few months"

LOL; June 30, 2010 at 10:00 AM
McFearless said...: ahab,

most of the time it doesn't bother me, when I got that email this morning, yes I did feel that way, I dropped a few f-bombs. it's not often at all you are able to time things that perfectly, so it's beyond annoying when in those few instances there is still that crap coming back to you.

but hey, I picked the job.; June 30, 2010 at 10:09 AM
I-Man said...: Dont know what to do here in the tape...

Will just sit and nurse my bruised rib...

You know you're getting old when you bruise a rib on a waterslide.

I was going pretty fast, and it was a pretty big waterslide.; June 30, 2010 at 10:10 AM
mcHAPPY said...: Ben,

ALl this talk of double dip is priceless. I've made a couple of comments on it the last couple of days about the 'double dip' talk. However, it is much earlier than I ever could have imagined. Essentially what we have is people getting massaged for this possibility while still being told to hold out for 'hope' as you/we buy the dips.

I'm thinking intermediate 1 ends around 700 to a chorus of "Phew!" and a rocket to 1200 in yet another orgy of recovery nonsense.; June 30, 2010 at 10:17 AM
CV said...: @McF

Maybe you could put them in long (with leverage), CGI Group Inc. (Stock Ticker GIB)...

LOL; June 30, 2010 at 10:17 AM
CV said...: @I-Man

Damn... I thought you were going to say your Everlast punching bag hit back at you and cracked your ribs...; June 30, 2010 at 10:19 AM
mcHAPPY said...: @ahab 10:00

I'm in the process of unloading my rental properties. Everyone is asking me, "why?" I have tried to explain it but people a) don't believe it, or b) don't want to hear it.

Most likely a combination of both. They have been conditioned for the last 20 years to think inflation and assets rise in value. tsk tsk tsk. A lot of smart people who don't have a clue.; June 30, 2010 at 10:19 AM
CV said...: @mcHappy

mcHappy still likes that chart gap at 1200...

Can't get it off your mind, can you mcH? :-); June 30, 2010 at 10:21 AM
Anonymous said...: from CNBC-

American homeowners, it turns out, have a very sweet deal to buy their home sweet homes, with the government being their candy man. For instance, America is nearly alone in not charging a fee for paying off mortgages early. And it’s one of the most liberal countries in allowing interest to be tax-deductible.

skewed heavily towards home ownership obviously-

the mortgage interest deduction being one "gimme" that needs to be phased out like they did credit card interest deductions-

pre-payment penalties are actually pretty common for bank held loans- but when the market is 95% GSE/agency money- well . . .maybe there is the problem; June 30, 2010 at 10:22 AM
CV said...: @Amen

Is it too early to break out the champagne bottles on 1089?; June 30, 2010 at 10:22 AM
Anonymous said...: mchappy-

smart move- better to sell in a "seller's" market-

and all this talk of double dip- seems rather tame- i'd rather think of it as "double crash"; June 30, 2010 at 10:26 AM
mcHAPPY said...: I can't CV.

BUt that doesn't get filled until next year. Intermediate 1 will scare the sh*t out of people and will once again sell at the wrong time. Intermediate 2 will get them to buy in at the wrong time and get people talking about new highs. Intermediate 3 is going to take us to depths not imagined except by many here.

Just my thoughts.; June 30, 2010 at 10:26 AM
McFearless said...: McHappy,

maybe I'm misreading you but I'm not sure it's logical to expect a move to 700 to end intermediate wave 1 and then a wave 2 retrace that takes back almost all of intermediate 1. I'm willing to accept that wave 2's can retrace a lot of wave 1, but our closing high was 1212.

I'd be willing to accept 1104 as a 78.6 retrace of that outcome, and even that is a stretch if this is the start of a Primary Wave 3, the downside character of these waves should be so powerful that the countertrend waves can't fight against it that strongly, look how insane internals have already been, we are matching days that occured in September 2008, in the real heart of Primary Wave 1, and the market isn't even down 20% from the peak in April.; June 30, 2010 at 10:28 AM
mcHAPPY said...: CV,

Gaps above are on my mind as well:

1) 1054 gap was not totally filled yesterday.
2) 1060 gap
3) 1075/1071 gap is really glaring to me.

I've been screwed on so many wave 2's of late, I am actually going to practice patience - eventhough every bone in me is screaming "SHORT GODDAMMIT SHORT!"; June 30, 2010 at 10:32 AM
AmenRa said...: CV

I'm already tipsy...; June 30, 2010 at 10:32 AM
karen said...: i was quite tipsy last night !; June 30, 2010 at 10:33 AM
mcHAPPY said...: @Ben

I hope it works out that way. I guess I'm just jaded of late - even with the sweetest little thing asleep next to me.; June 30, 2010 at 10:33 AM
McFearless said...: McHappy,

I hear you man, waves can do that to you, look what happened to me in January, I avoided all the other three wave moves without going crazy short in Primary 2 but that one got me good, it was time for me to be humbled.; June 30, 2010 at 10:35 AM
I-Man said...: Just got long at 1038.5... feeling some squeeze-age...; June 30, 2010 at 10:35 AM
CV said...: "tipsy"

What a great word...

Always kind of reminds me of Holly Golightly...; June 30, 2010 at 10:40 AM
mcHAPPY said...: Ben,

Would this be fair to ASS-ume:

in P3 there will be huge selling pressure, however, EW principles cannot be thrown out the window. Because of this, expect volatility with retracements being fast, violent, and covering minimal requirements.; June 30, 2010 at 10:41 AM
CV said...: @McF/McH

Like CV said... "It's CRAZY IVAN time"...; June 30, 2010 at 10:42 AM
Anonymous said...: man-

just stepped outside- awesome weather-

CV can relate- last week or two have been brutal hot and humid-

almost feels cold outside- 70 chilly degrees; June 30, 2010 at 10:47 AM
McFearless said...: yeah McHappy, I do think that's fair I'm not an expert on what P3 should be like, I basically just read what EWI says about it because nobody really knows, but considering the things we have seen already since the top this April I'd think that's a fair description.

I would guess that the squiggles will be nearly impossible to count at times, but if there is a P3 that big structure will ultimately map out five waves, and then we'll have to deal with the absolute nightmare that is going to be primary wave 4. That'll be way harder than Primary 2 if this all plays out imo,... in every possible way. the best we'll be able to do is assign the most probable pattern to wave 4 since we now know 2 was a triple ZZ....from there though, that's going to test everyone's skills in a special kind of way.; June 30, 2010 at 10:47 AM
Anonymous said...: and finally- some good news-

"Loss of Jobless Benefits Could Lower US Unemployment Rate" - CNBC

"Economists say the Senate's rejection of another extension of jobless benefits could actually cause more people to quit looking for work, which could push down the US unemployment rate"

you see? things are looking better every day; June 30, 2010 at 10:50 AM
CV said...: CV has pretty much settled on the idea of the 992 area as being the first real wave ending...

- It's near the Louise Yamada line (89Wma)
- There are wedge diagonals to support that

It's neither TOO HOT or TOO COLD

Frankly, I think TPTB still think they have control of this market...

So, we could hit that level, and sustain a fairly long duration rally that takes us through the summer period (at that point - perhaps - retracing some of the levels that mcHappy has)...

Think about it... the DARK CROSS will come in around the 1112 - 1122 level...

So we could jaunt down and put a floor in at 992, then do a Feb-Apr, irritating type move back up to the KT zone again...

Just killing time here with my CRAZY IVANS...; June 30, 2010 at 10:52 AM
karen said...: ahab.. that is the craziest, most convoluted blurb yet.. understandable that it came from "economists."; June 30, 2010 at 10:53 AM
CV said...: @ahab

Oh those wacky economists...; June 30, 2010 at 10:54 AM
McFearless said...: those economists that said that are not PhD's though right?; June 30, 2010 at 10:57 AM
Mannwich said...: Let economists study their own little "pretend world" that doesn't exist but they should leave the "real world" stuff alone. Far "too complicated" for them to understand without the necessary degrees or "credentials". ;-)

Off to Twinks-Tigers game. Gorgeous day here. Hanging onto my small holdings in SDS and QID for now. Have fun all.; June 30, 2010 at 11:02 AM
Mannwich said...: ......And of course my TLT. Back later.; June 30, 2010 at 11:03 AM
McFearless said...: ahab,

re: outside,

what an awesome day it is here, nice break from the disgusting heat we've had, I'm taking tomorrow day time off and playing some golf, will work at night instead.; June 30, 2010 at 11:07 AM
Anonymous said...: b22-

no doubt-

you kind of get use to the heat- then bam- a 70 degree day w/ low humidity-

so it feels cold-

and regarding the night shift- that's what I usually do every day!; June 30, 2010 at 11:12 AM
mcHAPPY said...: The longer this goes on and looking at the charts, I am doubting - now really doubting, not just doubting - that minute 1 is over. Nothing implusive going on. A push in to the 1050's would have me sharting, er, I mean shorting this market.; June 30, 2010 at 11:12 AM
AmenRa said...: Are they playing the 1044 game again?; June 30, 2010 at 11:15 AM
Metallica said...: FORECASTS

S&P

Unemployment

Housing Starts

Gold; June 30, 2010 at 11:16 AM
karen said...: is spx/spy putting in a base? a move over 1045 would not be happiness for me..; June 30, 2010 at 11:18 AM
CV said...: Pouring over your stock sharts again mcHappy? :-)

Why do you think economists come up with such crap all the time?

Answer: Because they're looking at sharts all day long...; June 30, 2010 at 11:18 AM
CV said...: @karen

So far this all just looks like a sideways consolidation (not a base)...

It's the last day of the quarter...

Momo's are limping home carrying their comrades on their shields...

Think Napoleon...; June 30, 2010 at 11:20 AM
karen said...: what in the heck is that forecast web-site?; June 30, 2010 at 11:20 AM
McFearless said...: topstep should be interesting today; June 30, 2010 at 11:22 AM
CV said...: Typical band-aid action...

Start HFT'ing the hell out of F & C, and bid up a few crappy retail stocks...; June 30, 2010 at 11:23 AM
karen said...: i forgot it was the last day of the month.. thank you.; June 30, 2010 at 11:24 AM
karen said...: from topstep twitter: We still have 980 as our first real down side objective.; June 30, 2010 at 11:25 AM
CV said...: FORECASTS???

Is that like where BIFF gets the Sports Almanac in "Back To the Future"?; June 30, 2010 at 11:26 AM
CV said...: @karen

980 works for CV...; June 30, 2010 at 11:26 AM
CV said...: Isn't America great?

Want a mansion? Just take one

'Luxury squatters' take over vacant houses and declare themselves owners. In Seattle, one family moved into a $3.3 million place.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Banking/HomeFinancing/article.aspx?post=1776245&GT1=33006; June 30, 2010 at 11:28 AM
McFearless said...: 800 handle before end of year

little bird told me; June 30, 2010 at 11:28 AM
AmenRa said...: CV

How long do they have to squat before they can lay claim to said property?; June 30, 2010 at 11:30 AM
karen said...: i just made extra kale smoothie if anyone wants some...

there goes 1045 : (; June 30, 2010 at 11:31 AM
McFearless said...: maybe the answer to that is in here somewhere Ra:

http://www.squatspace.com/handbook/index.php; June 30, 2010 at 11:31 AM
I-Man said...: Happy to book gains on this long at 1044...
(But I think that after a pullback there, we're off to 1050.; June 30, 2010 at 11:32 AM
Anonymous said...: way OT-

but I find this whole spy thing intriguing- especially Anna Chapman-

The SoHo Spy: Stunning Anna Chapman Accused in Russian Spy Ring

not too shabby- not sure I even understand what secrets they were sending-

if any- the USG is becoming a tad bit scary if you ask me-

took my 16 year old son to the US District Court for "unlawful bathing" @ Great Falls NP-

max sentence 6 months in jail- wow- my son got a one year continuance-

as long as he keeps his nose clean for one year- then charges are dismissed-

complete bullshit if you ask me- what? they own the damn river?; June 30, 2010 at 11:32 AM
McFearless said...: unlawful bathing?

w

t

f; June 30, 2010 at 11:33 AM
72bat said...: @ karen -
'what in the heck is that forecast web-site?'

"The Financial Forecast Center has been producing and publishing economic and financial market forecasts since 1997"
one would think, if this 'forecasting ai' was any good at all, that the website would prominently feature how well its forecasts have performed against outcomes. but then, we don't see that much of anywhere, do we, even at tbp?; June 30, 2010 at 11:36 AM
I-Man said...: Unlawful bathing huh? Did he forget to wash behind the ears? Or just forget to rinse properly?

Penalty sounds about right... throw him in the clink.; June 30, 2010 at 11:36 AM
McFearless said...: ewi marked top resistance last night at 1059, they felt yesterday was significant enough to issue a special short term update, they were saying last night we were deeply oversold at the close so any day now should see a bounce, but they are hardcore about us being in the early stages of wave 3 of 1.; June 30, 2010 at 11:37 AM
karen said...: oh my! what i've done in public this year! unlawful bathing? was he sans shorts or was swimming prohibited..; June 30, 2010 at 11:38 AM
AmenRa said...: Arrgghh. The algos start buy programs every time NYSE TICK drops below zero.; June 30, 2010 at 11:38 AM
McFearless said...: yeah, ahab's kid should go to jail for six months and bunk with the kid in there for six for smoking a joint.

meanwhile we've got wachovia laundering drug money, and how fitting, because I'm threatened with job loss every year if I don't complete my anti money-laundering training.; June 30, 2010 at 11:39 AM
CV said...: unlawful bathing...

Ty Webb: Let me tell you a little story? I once knew a guy who could have been a great golfer, could have gone pro, all he needed was a little time and practice. Decided to go to college instead. Went for four years, did pretty well. At the end of his four years, his last semester he was kicked out ... You know what for? He was night putting, just putting at night with the 15-year-old daughter of the Dean ... You know who that guy was Danny?

Danny Noonan: No.

Ty Webb: Take one good guess.

Danny Noonan: Bob Hope?

Ty Webb: Ha ha ... No, that guy was Mitch Comstein, my roommate. He was a good guy.; June 30, 2010 at 11:39 AM
I-Man said...: Long Ty Webb.; June 30, 2010 at 11:40 AM
I-Man said...: Stop set just below Danny Noonan.; June 30, 2010 at 11:41 AM
I-Man said...: (Cuz the world needs ditch diggers too...)

:); June 30, 2010 at 11:41 AM
McFearless said...: nice article:

http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2010/06/29/Know-More-and-Say-Less.aspx

from the link:

"Letting one's emotions get in the way of an investment is an investor's most common mistake. The easiest way to let your emotions get the best of you is to listen uncritically to what other people say, and to follow where they go."; June 30, 2010 at 11:42 AM
CV said...: Judge Smails: You know, you should play with Dr. Beeper and myself. I mean, he's been club champion for three years running and I'm no slouch myself.

Ty Webb: Don't sell yourself short Judge, you're a tremendous slouch.; June 30, 2010 at 11:43 AM
karen said...: some market internals from http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/; June 30, 2010 at 11:44 AM
Anonymous said...: buying some spxu again. buy more @spx 1060.
DP; June 30, 2010 at 11:48 AM
karen said...: zerohedge
New post: Goldman Technician Says To Short Market Unless S&P 1083 Is Recovered Today http://tinyurl.com/38az2fk; June 30, 2010 at 11:56 AM
mcHAPPY said...: Ignorance.; June 30, 2010 at 11:57 AM
CV said...: @McF

"listen uncritically to what other people say, and to follow where they go."

Conversely - that sounds like the key to marital bliss...; June 30, 2010 at 11:58 AM
CV said...: @karen

He must not be a 3lb guy (or else he would have said 1089)...; June 30, 2010 at 11:58 AM
mcHAPPY said...: GS must be long.; June 30, 2010 at 11:59 AM
Anonymous said...: karen-

technically- it's illegal to get in the water @ Great Falls NP-

however- it's not even posted where the kids go- they all jump the cliffs into the river-

my older son has been doing it for year w/ nary a problem-

but why not just tell the kids to get out of the water and go home?

a ticket? to go to a US District Court? max sentence 6 months?

when they said the max sentence in the court room I laughed; June 30, 2010 at 12:02 PM
I-Man said...: Reclaimed the uptrend off of yesterdays 1030.25 low...

Backtesting it for support now @ 1042.

Important line for today's trading, imo.; June 30, 2010 at 12:05 PM
karen said...: ahab, well that is patently absurd! and practically entrapment if it is not posted..; June 30, 2010 at 12:06 PM
Anonymous said...: here you go mcHappy- this is for you-

Why Canada's Housing Market Didn't Crash

. . .the banking system in Canada does not allow for the type of irresponsible buying and borrowing that we saw in the U.S. at the height of the recent housing boom (2004-2006)

all is well I guess- as long as home prices don't start falling; June 30, 2010 at 12:11 PM
mcHAPPY said...: lol, yeah saw it ahab. It is the "Ignorance." link above.

Instead of 'those who forget the past are doomed to repeat it' we have, 'those who ignore their neighbours are destined to suffer the same fate'; June 30, 2010 at 12:18 PM
CV said...: @ahab

Well I'd still say Obama's system is better (where irresponsible buying & borrowing is allowed)...

And it it all detonates, it's just not allowed to FAIL...

Everyone goes home happier! Right?; June 30, 2010 at 12:21 PM
I-Man said...: looks like the eurusd/spx risk corellation is back...

been watching audusd for risk on, audjpy for risk off days.

but eurusd is beginning to track spx well again.; June 30, 2010 at 12:27 PM
CV said...: @I-Man

Why don't I ever hear you tracking EuR-JPY?; June 30, 2010 at 12:34 PM
mcHAPPY said...: uh oh. hit 1048.08 but did not clear 1048.31. We either head up in to 1050's after a little down or we are about to go down haaaard.; June 30, 2010 at 12:37 PM
I-Man said...: No particular reason really...

Just started watching eurusd, then audusd, then audjpy... occasionally cable, occasionally eurchf if I want to gage eur weakness... maybe some usdjpy if I'm trying to gage yen strength.

I never think to look at eurjpy... what would be the advantage of watching that one over say a audjpy, or eurusd?; June 30, 2010 at 12:39 PM
McFearless said...: I'm with DP/Anon here and did a little short, after last week I adjusted all my entry levels, we aren't going to 1170 which was where I had previously thought I might be able to add the last cash.; June 30, 2010 at 12:41 PM
McFearless said...: tesla motors up big again today.

anybody have any thoughts on that?; June 30, 2010 at 12:43 PM
Smartass and Kickass said...: You know, we inherited this mess. Krugman may have thrown in the towel, but not us...; June 30, 2010 at 12:47 PM
CV said...: @I-Man

I was just noticing that on the real sharp moves lately, the Eur-JPY was highly correlative...

So what I'm saying is... On some days (when the markets are consolidating) it's tough to find correlations, and/or they are skewed...

But in moments when the market is determined to get someplace in a hurry, then that correlation has been lockstep...

Nobody thinks to look though (in the midst of the chaos)... And in fact, they don't need to...; June 30, 2010 at 12:47 PM
McFearless said...: we were big oversold yesterday and got bad news this morning, which according to the exogenous cause model, at this point should have rallied stocks a lot more today since that used to equal more QE or some other such nonsense.

this thing is weak.; June 30, 2010 at 12:47 PM
CV said...: @McF

"anybody have any thoughts on that?"

yeah... people are "tools"; June 30, 2010 at 12:49 PM
I-Man said...: Thx, CV...

Both eurjpy and eurusd say buy this dip, as far as I'm concerned.; June 30, 2010 at 12:49 PM
I-Man said...: I'm speaking of today... ie, next couple hours; June 30, 2010 at 12:49 PM
I-Man said...: Just think there are too many shorts drooling over the chance to sell ES at 1044.50/1045 for it to not be gunned.; June 30, 2010 at 12:51 PM
I-Man said...: Yesterday was the wild, wild, west... not seeing that kind of fury today. Makes me think sellers have run out of steam for now, and time for a pendulum swing.; June 30, 2010 at 12:53 PM
McFearless said...: I hope you are right about that I, closer to 1060 I think we be a real gift.; June 30, 2010 at 12:54 PM
I-Man said...: I'm honing in on 1052-50 on ES for my next shorting area.; June 30, 2010 at 12:55 PM
Anonymous said...: b22-

I made a comment yesterday about Tesla- saying I wished I was in on the IPO \snark\; June 30, 2010 at 12:55 PM
I-Man said...: Which kinda lines up with tomorrows open... if tomorrow is risk on tho, then 1073 might come back into play.; June 30, 2010 at 12:57 PM
karen said...: filling in for Nic.. Today's Topstep!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KL1pvrzr1VM; June 30, 2010 at 12:57 PM
CV said...: @McF

Abandoning all WAVES that have been drawn, if you look at it from a strict FIBO perspective... From 1220...

-.09 was the 1110 level... We numerous dances around that level (including the fact that it was the WEEKLY close after the FLASH CRASH - next day)...

- The next MF down was yesterdays close (right at 1141)...

So if you wanted to say that a "minute 3" wave got started off of last Thu/Fri/Mon 1083 area... I still think you have to try to use the 1110 level as a basis for any strength (if we get any at all here)...

So the FIBS between 1141 and 1110 are basically:

1056, 1067, 1075, 1084, 1094...

We can most likely eliminate the last three of those numbers...; June 30, 2010 at 12:58 PM
karen said...: you guys are smoking crack! today's high is in..; June 30, 2010 at 12:59 PM
I-Man said...: Ice my rib, karen.; June 30, 2010 at 1:01 PM
karen said...: so yes, i disagree with Danny.. expect the unexpected cuz it is different this time : ); June 30, 2010 at 1:02 PM
CV said...: @karen

Dear, can you parse what Mr. Topstep is saying?

For some reason, the sound on my computer is not working at the moment...; June 30, 2010 at 1:02 PM
karen said...: I-Man.. bet you had fun! what is the name of the waterpark and slide? maybe I can see it..; June 30, 2010 at 1:03 PM
Anonymous said...: CV-

I'm not Karen- however-

answer on Topstep- market will quietly go higher until Friday; June 30, 2010 at 1:04 PM
Abby Joseph Cohen said...: Massive rally coming.

Go long...5:1 leverage; June 30, 2010 at 1:06 PM
I-Man said...: Its at our pool... (and too big if you ask me... curves are too sharp, and the mats they want you to use make you go real fast...); June 30, 2010 at 1:06 PM
I-Man said...: http://www.lakeshoreac.com/index.html; June 30, 2010 at 1:07 PM
karen said...: - sideways to higher day today..
- "market can't go down to far in front of friday's unemployment number cuz if they do they will discount the number and the markets will rally"
- as far as rest of day, bond market down and putting some bid in spx
- tomorrow is first day of new quarter.. statistically a strong day.; June 30, 2010 at 1:07 PM
CV said...: @ahab

Thanks...

I'm not against that notion... I was saying the other day... First two days of the month, INFLOWS...

If Lloyd & Jamie are going to be "distributing" to "JOE 401K", they want to do it at these levels before they pull the rug out from under him...

Poor JOE 401K doesn't own any PUT contracts in his Legg Mason account...; June 30, 2010 at 1:08 PM
CV said...: Thanks karen...

And, of course, neither MR TOPSTEP nor any of the Money Managers who come on CNBS will explain it to you the way CV just did...

Bad for business...

This ain't a "racket" is it? What's a "racket"?

Now, how about dem Job numbers?; June 30, 2010 at 1:10 PM
McFearless said...: ahab,

I don't know much about the company, but a simple question, when are they going to make any money? My understanding is that since inception they've lost about 260 million....and last I checked, the public wasn't sold on their big idea just yet.

but what do I know, that IPO was supposed to come out at $14-$16, it's basically double that, and all over the unproven Model S which carries a base price of 49.9k, which I don't think is very cheap.

I look at hundreds of household budgets every year, I see what people spend on gas, your break-even on this vs. a traditional (gas) cheaper car, or a traditional used car isn't any time soon, and if heaven forbig gas prices go down again, then what? but hey, you can get a tax credit if you buy, and remember how awesome that worked for people with SUV's back in the day. You could also just buy a Nissan LEAF for 32k, the difference in interest over the life of the two loans likely covers your gas bill for a year-year and half.

according to them they are just focused on looking out to 2012, when people will be happy to drop 50k on a car.

I see people asking if its the next Model T, so I'm sure it will all work out swell.; June 30, 2010 at 1:11 PM
karen said...: that dinky little slide? maybe you should visit wild rivers when you come to orange county.. then again, maybe not! laughing.; June 30, 2010 at 1:12 PM
Anonymous said...: CV-

per Mr. Topstep- 17 out of last 21 starts to the 3rd qtr were up days-

he did say something that I found interesting- if today and tomorrow end up being down days-

then whatever number is coming out on Friday is automatically discounted and the market will go higher-

some sense in that I guess; June 30, 2010 at 1:13 PM
I-Man said...: yeah, yeah, yeah...

I was caught off guard by the speed and didnt have my arms crossed like I should have.; June 30, 2010 at 1:13 PM
I-Man said...: You sound like my wife... (who was afraid to go down the slide of course.); June 30, 2010 at 1:14 PM
CV said...: @McF

Electric cars are an idiotic concept...

Nikola Tesla himself is probably turning over in his grave at the thought of it...; June 30, 2010 at 1:15 PM
CV said...: @karen

"wild rivers"?... I-Man, karen is trying to get you arrested (like ahab's kid)...; June 30, 2010 at 1:17 PM
karen said...: ben, you hit the nail on the head with "when are they going to make money?" I looked into it and just shook my head. there is a sucker born every minute, tho, right?; June 30, 2010 at 1:19 PM
mcHAPPY said...: Tesla is the smoking hot new black jack dealer at the casino. The novelty will wear off soon when the next girl gets hired.; June 30, 2010 at 1:20 PM
I-Man said...: "There is a sucker born every minute,"

Thats what the IB's who worked that deal are saying right now!; June 30, 2010 at 1:21 PM
Anonymous said...: wow-

my last post- guess I just repeated what Karen already posted-

b22- car is too expensive and inconvenient- plain and simple-

your break even thoughts are on the money- that is what is going to be going through most folks minds-

CV had a good point about charging the batteries- is there capacity to allow for massive electricity use w/o causing brown outs/black outs; June 30, 2010 at 1:21 PM
karen said...: CV, silly! http://www.wildrivers.com/; June 30, 2010 at 1:22 PM
I-Man said...: Random trading psychology tip:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2d5o8d1kitM; June 30, 2010 at 1:22 PM
CV said...: Wait... I shouldn't say IDIOTIC CONCEPT...

For local fleet use, there may be some value, or, the idea of low horsepower options (like on scooters or something) may have various merits...

The main problem is trying to fit the concept into normal AMERICAN driving habits...

People... The problem aren't "cars", the problem are PEOPLE, LOGISTICS, and the HABITS thereof...

Mass electrical cars aren't going to solve any inherent problems...; June 30, 2010 at 1:22 PM
mcHAPPY said...: I keep looking at the ticker and this is what I keep thinking off: Can you take me higher?; June 30, 2010 at 1:23 PM
karen said...: Jamie with $VIX Sonar Report:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DRPC8RcvFpM; June 30, 2010 at 1:23 PM
CV said...: @I-Man

"There is a sucker born every minute,"

"Thats what the IB's who worked that deal are saying right now!"

It was the SQUID... Go figure!; June 30, 2010 at 1:24 PM
Nancy Pelosi said...: I think that everyone should drive an electric car.; June 30, 2010 at 1:26 PM
CV said...: @mcF

"CV had a good point about charging the batteries- is there capacity to allow for massive electricity use w/o causing brown outs/black outs"

Answer: NO...

Also - Consider the fact that based on the way electricity gets distributed in this country, only 50% of the electricity created (by burning coal, gas, nuclear, or driven by turbines) ever makes to a lightbulb in the first place...

And with CARS, we're not talking about 40 watt light bulbs or recharging AA batteries here...

I re-iterate... Dumbest idea EVER... GIB x1000; June 30, 2010 at 1:27 PM
CV said...: @Nancy Pelosi

Bite me...; June 30, 2010 at 1:27 PM
karen said...: mcHappy! that was a major disappointment! This is how I want to go higher.; June 30, 2010 at 1:27 PM
Anonymous said...: karen-

that's funny- I was thinking exactly what CV was thinking-

there are some great natural slides in the Shenandoah mountains; June 30, 2010 at 1:28 PM
I-Man said...: McH, Karen,

Yall have it all wrong...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_V5YvDyn3YE; June 30, 2010 at 1:31 PM
karen said...: and speaking of wild rides.. crude since 8AM ET on the 5 min chart.. zig zag madness to the downside.. expecting the next leg down to commence now.; June 30, 2010 at 1:32 PM
Anonymous said...: Sucker born every minute... hmmm, maybe they'll invest in my company's IPO

new products division; June 30, 2010 at 1:33 PM
McFearless said...: C,

exactly, plugging those things in to charge, at least for right now, defeats the idea of the car being "green"

suckers indeed, you can get a lot of cool cars with good gas mileage for 50k; June 30, 2010 at 1:34 PM
McFearless said...: hmm, sly stone, that's one strange dude.; June 30, 2010 at 1:35 PM
CV said...: @McF

All I know is this... If the morons in this country start insisting that we go the route of electric cars (and think that we're going to generate all out energy from the sun & wind)... They've got another thing coming...

When you start adding the claw of electricity demands from cars... and put that into competition for the same electricity you use to run your BIG SCREEN TV, microwave oven, & god forbid if you heat your home with electric heat...

Well... Start preparing for your ELECTRIC BILL to be over $1000 a month...

And that will happen whether OR NOT you even own an electric car or not...

So the poor old lady living in East St. Louis will shiver to death in her ice box tenement during the winter because she can't afford to heat her little box up...

But Joe Camel (out in Santa Barbara) will be looking pretty fly in his Tesla though...

I swear to God people are morons...

CV isn't "green" because he's worried about the environment... CV is "green" because he's worried about MORONIC LIBERALS...; June 30, 2010 at 1:36 PM
mcHAPPY said...: @Karen,

Ha, yeah, Creed is awful. I was expecting to get some grief on that one. I thought about downloading the Kid Rock and Creed lead singer threesome instead but I thought I'd keep it PG. lol; June 30, 2010 at 1:38 PM
arbitrage789 said...: CV @ 1:36

How's that wind turbine of yours working out?; June 30, 2010 at 1:39 PM
karen said...: This is the kind of talk I like:

A casually dressed Bill Fleckenstein was on Bloomberg TV bursting assorted myths and bubbles. First, Bill discusses how the market is no longer a discounting mechanism, noting that "after having completely ignored the bursting of the dot com and the real estate bubbles, i think this a function of the fact that since Greenspan took over the Fed and serially bailed out bigger and bigger problems with more and more easy money, the market evolved into much more of a speculative casino, and a lot more momentum type traders began to operate and everything always resolved itself on the upside... We have had much more of a speculative market that seems not to discount problems."

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bill-fleckenstein-says-you-cant-trust-sp-pe-multiples-all-financials-earnings-are-pure-nonse; June 30, 2010 at 1:42 PM
Anonymous said...: I-Man-

dude- "just feel"- lol

those old Bruce Lee movies crack me up- the sound effects especially-

check this out!

Fake Purse Ninjas; June 30, 2010 at 1:42 PM
McFearless said...: speaking of cars....check out F chart today....; June 30, 2010 at 1:43 PM
karen said...: I-Man, that was most probably the most annoying lead in to a song ever.. that only got worse!; June 30, 2010 at 1:44 PM
karen said...: with this much debt i seriously doubt their PE:

(MarketWatch) -- Ford Motor Co. said Wednesday that it's slashing another $4 billion-plus in debt, mostly by paying cash to its union retiree trust ahead of schedule, in an attempt to shore up its balance sheet.

Shares of Ford (F) rallied more than 3% in opening trades to $10.20.

Combined with an April payment of $3 billion, the auto maker has cut $7 billion in debt during the second quarter, which will lead to savings of more than $470 million in annual interest costs.

"We expect to continue to improve our balance sheet as we deliver on our plan," said Alan Mulally, Ford's chief executive officer. "Our business results make it possible to take these actions while still accelerating the investments we are making in our business to serve our customers with the very best cars and trucks."

Dearborn, Mich.-based Ford still carries about $27 billion in debt. The company faces a tougher battle in terms of debt than General Motors and Chrysler, which were able to clean up their balance sheets in bankruptcy.; June 30, 2010 at 1:47 PM
CV said...: @DL

I'm still trying to find the right spot for it...

Strangely, it's not been very windy lately... You need about 10 mph to get it going decently...

But there are other times that it'll spin like crazy and fill up a charge in no time...

The best system, if you want to experiment with a small 500 - 1000w of power (which is really only good enough to power a small array of things that require a constant flow (and don't have amp yanks)... Would be to get, say, 512W of solar & a small wind turbine with the same generating capacity and feed them into the same battery...

I'm talking REAL SMALL system here...

But CV believes in "tinkering" in small scale operations and building rather than laying down enormous sums of money on something that doesn't end up working that well...

For instance, I just use these things as "add-ons" when I want to add new demands for energy... (like, say, extra florescent lights for growing, small heaters for aquariums, or refrigerator/freezer motors)...; June 30, 2010 at 1:50 PM
karen said...: this 1045 are is bugging the heck out of me.. typically when we have flat-lined like this the move is to the upside..; June 30, 2010 at 1:57 PM
AmenRa said...: GS: "If we're down the market will go nowhere. Capiche?"; June 30, 2010 at 1:58 PM
McFearless said...: karen, there is also that issue of a quadruple bottom, which I don't really think exists, and everyone (or a lot of people are) is writing about the H&S....; June 30, 2010 at 1:59 PM
karen said...: uup is hanging up there.. would love to see it move higher : ); June 30, 2010 at 2:00 PM
Anonymous said...: Karen-

Ford mortgaged their whole future when they took on that debt-

it was high risk/high reward strategy-

they deserve a lot more kudos than either GM or Chrysler who took the government sponsored BK option-

and it appears their cars are rising to the top of the quality surveys-

as CV would say- they have that going for them; June 30, 2010 at 2:01 PM
CV said...: @McF

1.21 jigga-watts...

Great! Then it's official...

If we're going to drive electric cars, it should be the LAW that they're effin DeLoreans...; June 30, 2010 at 2:01 PM
mcHAPPY said...: But don't forget I thought we were going higher and I am the ultimate contrarian indicator.... oh wait, but then I somewhat changed my mind and thought we were going down..... this is why the market is going nowhere - because I can't decide where to place my chips.

Yes, it is all about mcHAPPY.; June 30, 2010 at 2:01 PM
AmenRa said...: Figures: ECB Biggest Guarantor Of European Banks; June 30, 2010 at 2:04 PM
karen said...: a long article with interesting anecdotes on the Vancouver RE bubble:

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/06/bw-vancouver-canada-housing-bubble.html; June 30, 2010 at 2:05 PM
Anonymous said...: heading out-

for a good laugh everyone needs to click on my "Fake Purse Ninja" link-

all have an awesome day; June 30, 2010 at 2:07 PM

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Morning Audibles 6.30.10 - Let the CRAZY IVANS Begin!

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