AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection


SPX
Bearish long day. 1110.02 (fibo .09) is kryptonite. Midpoint below 10 SMA. Back below the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 1078.87. Back below the trendline using 2010 lows. New low on daily 3LB with reversal now 1110.88. Still trending down on the daily 3LB. Currently confirming the monthly 3LB reversal (it's a long month). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish long day. Hanging man from 6/3/10 interred. Midpoint still above 10 SMA. The 85.11 (fibo .1459) is holding (91.80 is next). Still above the 76.4% retrace. Make a move already. New high on daily 3LB with reversal now 86.10.



VIX
Bullish long day. Completed morning doji star pattern. Midpoint below 10 SMA. Fear is waking up and realizing only the painters can paint the tape (sometimes). Tested and closed above the 23.6% retrace and back above 30. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.91). Currently confirming the monthly 3LB reversal.



GOLD
Bullish piercing day. Now above the 21 SMA. Midpoint above 10 SMA. To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud! (Gold's rally cry). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1176.10).



EURUSD
Bearish long day. Midpoint below the 10 SMA. Fibo level of 1.2935 is history. Tested fibo .1855 at 1.2336 (failed). Tested fibo .2058 at 1.2028 (failed). Next is 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level). Still below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). New low on daily 3LB with reversal now 1.2207.



JNK
Bullish long day. Tested the 0.0% retrace (passed) but still below the 233 SMA. Midpoint below 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).



GS
Doji day. Confirmed hanging man. Still above the 21 SMA (barely). Midpoint above the 10 SMA. Tested the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98 (failed). Still wants to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 136.10).



WTI
Bearish long day. Closed below the 21 SMA. Midpoint above 10 SMA. Tested and closed below the 38.2% retrace. Looking to test the 23.6% retrace at 69.65. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 68.01).


36 comments:

BinT said...

Karen and I-Man:

Missed all day in the OR today...sorry...nature of the job. But did something nice and may write a paper on it. Huge case.

Sorry I missed the comments. As you all know, this is my hobby, and it has been good to me. Last night, however, had the daughter-in-law's mother stay with us (see travels the state in sales) and she and her husband have made every bone-headed mistake in investing known to man.

Unfortunately Karen, she comes from a family of very strong-willed women.....and by God, if she thinks a thing is where she wants to invest, she does it. It is truly amazing how much money they are in debt now, with incomes of above 200k combined. It is almost Shakespearean.

Out to supper. And a couple of Pacificos....

McFearless said...

damn, that bear's teeth look sharp....he also looks really hungry, like he's been asleep since around March of last year or so.

AmenRa said...

Ben

That's what happens when you get forced into a cave to hibernate. You come out hungry and pissed.

CV said...

@McF

Interesting (in photo) though... And this is CV's realm...

The BULLS position has physiological & mechanical LEVERAGE...

Just my "athletic" observation...

CV said...

That's unless the bear sinks those teeth into the throat right quick...

CV said...

If the bear misses on that attempt... The bull has the leveraged stance...

AmenRa said...

CV

The bear avoided the horns and has a clear shot at the bulls neck. The bull fell for the old trick "your shoes are untied".

McFearless said...

Ra, CV,

I think this is ok to share b/c you can get the info, but EWI notes tonight regarding TRIN:

Today's NYSE TRIN closed at 13.56, the third highest close of the past 22+ years. The highest close occurred on February 27, 2007 at 14.63. The second highest close was the day of the crash in 1987, October 19, 1987 at 14.06.

AmenRa said...

CV

The bear also knows not to attack head on after being gouged enough times (think 3/9/09).

AmenRa said...

Ben

That's what an orderly sell off should do. The flash crash only had a high of 3.37 for the Trin.

McFearless said...

Here is AAII since Feb (Bull/N/Bear)

June 3: 37.09% 22.07% 40.85%
May 27: 29.82% 19.30% 50.88%
May 20: 41.30% 25% 33.70%
May 13: 36.60% 26.80% 36.60%
May 6: 39.13% 32.30% 28.57%
April 29: 41.36% 30% 28.64%
April 22: 38.12% 27.62% 34.25%
April 15: 48.48% 21.82% 29.70%
April 8: 42.86% 26.79% 30.36%
April 1: 41.30% 27.54% 31.16%
March 25: 32.39% 32.95% 34.66%
March 18: 35.37% 34.76% 29.88%
March 11: 45.29% 29.41% 25.29%
March 4: 35.86% 37.93% 26.21%
February 25: 34.90% 35.57% 29.53%
February 18: 35.85% 28.93% 35.22%
February 11: 36.75% 21.37% 41.88%
February 4: 29.23% 27.69% 43.08%

CV said...

@McF (5:42)

For reference...

Everybody knows the significance of 10.19.87...

But FEWER can apply a significance to 2.27.07 (but CV can)...

2.27.07 was Martin's Armstrongs date... The exact peak of his wave call...

CV knows the date well (and this is documented in TELEVISION lore)... because if you were watching CNBC's FAST MONEY on the evening of 2.26.07... CV texted a message into the show (that appeared on the tape - credited to me)... That the market was going to TANK HARD the next day...

The VIX was in single digits... Everyone thought I was a fool...

Well... The VIX ain't in single digits no more... But people STILL THINK CV's a fool...

I made about $30 large that day on SPY puts...

If I'd have known how to trade, I might have banked a million :-(

McFearless said...

nice story man, it wasn't a million, but 30k is 30k.

CV said...

But I'm sure I'd have lost it soon thereafter in either a bad DERBY PICK... or in a poker game :-)

karen said...

I'm checking in from the surf! Bruce, your anecdote multiplied across thecountry!

CV said...

@McF

Absolutely true story...

I still look around to see if I can find the ticker on YOU TUBE or something...

I had it all recorded on DVR for awhile... Then I switched from Comcast to Verizon and forgot to save it...

CV said...

@karen

If you're checking in from the surf...

Then you are REQUIRED to snap a foto... & upload it as a new AVATAR immediately!

karen said...

AR, loved this wrap above all others.. Hope you getanother raise!

karen said...

Cv,I'll email you a foto.. That's all iknow how to do! I have to wait for a set!

CV said...

@karen

OK... Looking forward to it!

mcHAPPY said...

mcHAPPY is stuck in Limbo. Wishing I had the balls (or stupidity) I had just a couple of weeks ago.

Ben: I like the alt. count better from EWI. The only thing that will change my mind is a dip below 1040.78. If that happens though I would be expecting a very sharp bounce higher almost immediatley.

Either way for those (like me!) who missed today, there will be another chance soon enough - like Manny said.

Have a good weekend.

Mannwich said...

@McHappy: To answer your queston on the last thread - I'd pared some of my TLT holding on the last run up but I still have a large holding.

CV said...

@karen

Thanks for the fotos... :-)

Looks like classic June "convexion layer" going on in SoCal...

Burning off as we speak :-)

AmenRa said...

Karen

Gracias.

I-Man said...

@ Ahab

Re: that same comment from tbp

http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/The-Two-Phases-of-the-Great-Depression-5-27-2010.pdf

I-Man said...

MA's nearest support level on the Dow-osaur was 10,200.

Check the gap:

http://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=INDEXDJX:DJI


Next level is 9600.

Andy T said...

Love that word "interred." I need to use it more often in my everyday life. Thanks AR.

Pretty scary looking day....

BinT said...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=a3GzosdcmAYA

June 5 (Bloomberg) -- Group of 20 finance chiefs signaled they will delay introducing new rules aimed at forcing banks to raise the quality and quantity of capital they hold to buffer against financial crisis.

Finance ministers and central bankers conclude talks in Busan, South Korea, today in agreement that banks need to keep more assets on hand, yet split over the scale and timing of capital increases. With euro-area officials expressing concern that haste would hurt economic growth, U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne echoed U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner in pushing for the new rules to be agreed this year, with the provision that enactment be delayed.


.......Did you really expect anything else?

72bat said...

c'mon kare - have that very, hot, tan etc. surfer companion snap your hang ten and replace the shooz!

ah, satiated? a fine line between just enough and too much of a good thing, while satiate may only imply complete satisfaction, it more often suggests repletion that destroys interest or desire. not you, i'm sure.

AmenRa said...

Funny cartoon on the Greece crisis (from ZH):Greek Crisis in Three Simple Clips

I-Man said...

Ben

You'll love this blast from the past on Uncle Warren:

http://anonymousmonetarist.blogspot.com/2008/11/was-water-cold-goldie.html

AmenRa said...

Andy T

re: SPX
Looks like the 23.6% was prescient. Also the 55EMA was violated (jailhouse style). It did test the 55SMA but it held. < C > may come earlier than expected (from page 3).

AmenRa said...

I-Man

The MSM will be bending over backwards this weekend to try and explain what happened today. I'm expecting euro intervention on Sunday.

AmenRa said...

Weekly 3LB Update 6/4/10

mcHAPPY said...

@Andy

I am still amazed at your charts this week. So many possibilities you laid out and it seems many of the charts have 'come true'.

Slide 7 has caught my eye this evening.

Personally, I'm not too concerned about which count is correct because it is apparent we are heading lower - much lower - eventually. A break of 1040.78 will certainly answer many questions.

CV said...

NEW THREAD UP

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This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.