Memorial Day S&P Post

As promised, here are some thoughts on the S&P 500. Unfortunately, for shorter term trading, it's similar to the Gold count in that we're in a "No Man's Land." A case can easily be made for a good bounce back to the 1147-1175 (circa June futures) zone. Alternatively, one cannot rule out a severe collapse. So, it's probably best to look toward the bigger picture, which looks bearish. I'm about 20% of a Max Short position at this point because a strong bounce seems better than a 50% bet--I want plenty of "dry powder" if we see the 1147-->1175.

Sideways congestion or a break of 1036 over the the next several days would make me increase short positions.

---

Note from CV... I'm leaving Andy T's chart analysis to ride as the thread for Tuesday, June 1st as it is a very good analysis after a long weekend (and I wanted to keep the accumulated comment section in tact)... Good luck with your trades today...


If you missed it, check out Andy's GOLD chart from the Sunday Evening Post...

296 comments:

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Wes said...

AT-

very nice presentation...

i could follow your reasoning quite well

take care man!

mcHAPPY said...

Any bounce in the morning I will be shorting. Any decline I will be cursing. Fingers crossed on the gap just overhead.

AmenRa said...

Andy T

There is a monthly 3LB reversal on the SPX. Unfortunately I have to wait on EOM for June for confirmation. But as long as it trades under the May close makes the confirmation possible. A close above the monthly 3LB mid will weaken the chance of a confirmation.

AmenRa said...

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/dcd6aa56-6ce4-11df-91c8-00144feab49a.html
Bond spreads widen on bank credit risk worries

By Aline van Duyn in New York

Published: May 31 2010 20:13 | Last updated: May 31 2010 22:24

Fears about the creditworthiness of US and European banks have pushed sharply higher the interest rate premium on bank bonds over government debt, hitting other corporate bond markets and raising borrowing costs for many companies.

In the past month, the spreads over government debt for bank bonds in euros and dollars tracked by the Barclays Capital corporate bond index have widened by more than 70 basis points.

There have also been sharp moves in non-financial corporate bonds, even though many industrial companies face few specific credit pressures as cash balances have improved.

Debt sold by financial institutions accounts for a large proportion of all outstanding bonds. In Europe, it is more than 50 per cent of the total and in the US it is about 35 per cent.

Investors said concerns weighing on the outlook for the banking system included possible losses from banks’ exposure to the eurozone sovereign debt crisis.

In the US, a regulatory crackdown could lead to lower credit ratings for banks because lawmakers wanted bondholders to absorb more losses should a bank fail.

Andy T said...

AR. speaking of the monthly, isn't that a confirmed doji star top on the monthly candlesticks?

Andy T said...

Thanks for subscribing Wes.

AmenRa said...

Andy T

I see a confirmed shooting star on the monthly. Also May gapped higher from April on the monthly.

arbitrage789 said...

I don't know a "shooting star" from a "hanging chad". All I want to know is if we make it to 1100 tomorrow.

Wes said...

...to the range of possibilities - amplitude and frequency-wise - that you have presented, yes, AT...i do

mcHAPPY said...

Dammit. It would appear my contrarian indicator lives on. Futures do not appear bullish (this could be the understatement of the year).

mcHAPPY said...

Andy,

Great charts. I've looked at them 3 times because it is such an indepth analysis, there is much to take in.

On second thoughts, I'm totally confused on the charts. This really has the makings to be a bear trap or the real thing down has begun. Personally I am still leaning towards higher yet but that is only because I am not short - yet. This could be the end of a B before one last push higher.

Anonymous said...

looks like another interesting day in the neighborhood (sorry M.r Rogers)-

futures don't look to "perty" and I think it is becoming clear that our "robust" recovery is showing signs of being as bust-

Hehehe- makes me chuckle

CV said...

@ahab

Looks like you have your trusty dog by your side & are fit & ready tho... :-)

Anonymous said...

also- hope everyone had a great Memorial Day weekend-

CV-

well I am pretty fit but I can't say I am quite as ready as your are though(-:!!!

karen said...

morning!!! i saw futures and jumped out of bed...

Anonymous said...

"President of Germany, Horst Koehler resigned". www.marketwatch.com.

Trouble in Germany. Problems for Mekel's coaliation.

Spain downgraded. Is France next?

karen said...

I think this was in Barron's.. Ray Dalio, Bridgewater:

Explain why the printing of money won't cause inflation.

The printing of money will offset the deflation that is coming from the weak demand for goods and services due to weak credit growth. For example, in March of 1933 the U.S. printed a whole lot of money, and that had the effect of converting deflation into modest inflation, but not a high rate of inflation.... My point is, in developed countries there is too much of most things at the moment, and that's creating a deflationary environment. There is too much manufacturing capacity. There is too much labor. There is too much housing stock. As Europe's economy weakens and its debt crisis worsens, the printing of money does not mean that it will produce an accelerating inflation because simultaneously there is also less being purchased, and the surpluses are already causing deflationary pressures. That is why, contrary to almost everybody's belief, I believe the bonds in countries that can print money will be good investments.

AmenRa said...

I see they are doing everything possible to keep Dow futures above 10k.

karen said...

From Annaly over the weekend: http://www.annaly.com/blog/

[ ]flation*

“In extremely overleveraged economies, monetary policy doesn’t work. Potential borrowers do not have the balance sheet capacity to take on more debt. Currently, borrowers are loaded with excess houses, office buildings, retail space, and plant capacity. No need exists to get even deeper in debt. Moreover, due to rising foreclosures and delinquencies, bank capital has been badly eroded and banks are not in a position to put more risk onto their balance sheets by lending to already over committed borrowers.”

* [ ]= In-, Disin-, De- or Re-…take your pick

karen said...

ISM and Construction spending at 10..

karen said...

where in the world is everyone this morning?

CV said...

@karen

There is too much manufacturing capacity. There is too much labor. There is too much housing stock.

Gee... Supply & Demand

Whoda thunkit?

72bat said...

k -
friday afternoon, nic posted on her blog that she "won't be around for a few days"

karen said...

bat, but she was here over the weekend! and where have you been?!

karen said...

we should go back to 1040 today..

karen said...

well, maybe 1060ish is a more reasonable target.. 1040 tomorrow.

CV said...

At this point I have no idea...

72bat said...

k -
weekend staycation, getting the homestead cleaned up and a mess of chicken, tenderloins and sausages smoked up for the memorial day welcome home bbq for the kiddoh

CV said...

Something still tells me that despite the weakness, the market will find a way to go up and fill in some of those above gaps before it falls apart...

JMO... Not a popular viewpoint... (and I'll admit that it's nothing more than a 'feeling')...

CV said...

It's just chart work, nothing else...

mcHAPPY said...

I am expecting one more push lower before a very strong push higher. This would end the correction. It would also set up for a very strong fall tomorrow. Correction would be over on the 5th day. WE also have a new gap to fill.

mcHAPPY said...

I also bought a small position (1/8 my usual size) in case I am wrong on the above and will use the rest to get in on any retracement.

Anonymous said...

CV, what are your thoughts on BP? Almost 5 year low. Is it finished? May be lot of pending lawsuits. No?

mcHAPPY said...

Any break of 1092.01 would prove this thinking false in the next hour or so.

karen said...

bat!! must have been a very fun Monday!

karen said...

Today's Daily Pfenning was really good.

Ahem... As I clear my voice so that you are sure to read this clearly (HA!) I will point out that "wage inflation" which is what we're talking about here, is non-existent right now, and probably for some time... Because even the Gov't with all their "ghost jobs" and hedonic adjustments have unemployment at 9.7%... And if we counted all the beans the way they should be counted it would be much higher... I can always count on John Williams over at Shadow Stats to give them the "real numbers"... And according to John, real unemployment in this country is around 22%!!!!!!

And here's another nail in the U.S. recovery dreams... Economic growth, which we already know is trumped up by Gov't spending, is slowing again... And soon it will be heading toward the double dip that I've talked about for 6 months now...

And a reader just sent me a story that appeared on Money.cnn.com ... It goes like this... "Think Greece and Spain are drowning in debt? Look a little closer to home. Seven U.S. cities recently had their municipal bonds downgraded below investment grade. Their debt is now, junk, considered more worthless than that of the so-called PIIGS."

For a list of the cities... Read the whole story here: http://money.cnn.com/2010/06/01/news/economy/junkiest_cities/index.htm

karen said...

And on the AUD, "The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) leaving rates unchanged at their meeting last night. I didn't expect the RBA to raise rates at this meeting, due to the "events" in Europe since their last rate hike. RBA Gov. Stevens, said that "monetary policy was appropriate for the near term"...

So... The Aussie dollar (A$) lost ground after the RBA announcement, and then slipped further when China's purchasing managers (manufacturing) Index fell to 53.9 from 55.7 in April. Could be a "blip" for China, and one-off month, or could be what a lot of people have been talking about, and that is a collapse of the Chinese economy. I'm still in the camp that it will be the former thought... "

karen said...

Okay, so lets see what ISM and contruction spending do to our indices..

CV said...

@anon (9:50)

Re: BP

Pelosi was talking over the weekend about getting something started to raise the corporate liability damage level to $10 billion (from $75 million)...

Nancy strikes again!

Way to punish shareholders... In that way, PRACTICALLY EVERYONE WITH A 401k takes the hit...

CV said...

@anon

Meanwhile - a Dutch Engineering firm, over the weekend, published a proposal on how to possibly stop the leak... It was outlandish, but hey, it's time to try anything right?

It involved overturning (and sinking) a large oil tanker (large enough to cover the hole)...

Then another hole would be cut into that and fed up to the surface and a hose would direct the flow into tankers on the surface...

They would continue to siphon off this way as they constructed a larger cement covering to completely cap the hole on the bottom...

Anyway, that's the gist...

CV said...

I'll try to find the link... to that proposal

AmenRa said...

Bulls are doing everything they can to try and prevent the inevitable. Each time tick goes negative there is a large amount of buying to offset the move.

mcHAPPY said...

The start of this descent is 1099.73. End of wave 1 would be 1092.01. .618 retracement would be 1096.78 - we hit 1096.93 top wave 2. Low thus far is 1078.49 - bottom of wave 3. 2.618 off wave 1 is 1076.51 - pretty darn close to 1078.49. .382 retrace is 1086.21 but we can go to 1092.00. Thus far the highest I have seen is 1091.22. We should drop to around 1084 if wave 5=wave 1 before shorts are eaten by the bull.

bob said...

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/2360-Ben-Stein-Im-Responsible-In-Part-For-BP.html

I'm With KD on the liablity thing.

I'm also in favor of nuking the hole. As long as they get the nuke more than 1000ft below the surface, it should contain itself.

This would mean that BO would have to say "nuclear", which I am pretty sure he signed away his ability to say when he became the 'oil guy' in the race.

mcHAPPY said...

just saw 1091.78. Has anyone see higher than 1092.01?

Anonymous said...

"US Manufacturing Grows in May; Construction Surges"- CNBC

The Commerce Department says that construction shot up 2.7 percent last month compared to March. It was the biggest one-month improvement since August 2009 . . .the increase was led by a 4.4 percent jump in private residential construction, the first positive gain in this category since March 2009.

nothing like a rear view mirror to tell you where you are going- lol

mcHAPPY said...

I just saw 1092.14. There goes this theory.

karen said...

i'm experiencing deja vu with this 5 minute macro business.. soon there will be no shorts left.. no buyers left.. and the market will ? implode ?

CV said...

@bob

I don't know the science, but what are the further ramifications to the ecosystem for exploding a nuke? (I know it sounds silly by considering black tar to the same), but I'd at least want to know...

What about a tsunami? What about "fault lines"...

I mean literally, you start blowing off shelf chunks like that and doesn't New Orleans sink 50 feet down into the sea?

I'd laugh my ass off (no, actually, I'd cry, but I'm just saying)...

BO criticized Bush & Fema relentlessly for Katrina... Now BO gets the job and the first thing he does is "take ownership" of an oil spill, detonate a nuke, and tip all of New Orleans into the sea?

I'm probably talking out of my @ss here, but I'd AT LEAST want to know before I start talking nukes here...

Reminds me of that movie ARMAGEDDON...

"Oh yeah... We'll just send Bruce Willis up there to drill a hole and explode a nuke"... Yeah, reality is, then the planet would get hit by billions of house sized asteroids instead of one big one...

Buckshot city baby!

mcHAPPY said...

@Karen

The 'flash crash' fat finger or whatever you want to call it was a third of a third - it would appear. What you described above would be accurate in terms of where we are going, IMO.

AmenRa said...

ahab

How can private residential construction gain when building starts have been decreasing?

CV said...

@ahab (10:27)

CV has a solution...

Maybe if we BULLDOZE every foreclosed house in America (& raze Detroit in the process)...

Take all the debris and wad it all up into a pile... And add to that a NEW set of CASH for CLUNKERS (and collect up all the old autos to add to the scrap heap)...

Toss in all the cheap Chines trinkets on the shelves of WalMarts...

Then barge all the crap out into the Gulf and pile it onto that hole, we could fix all problems at once?

karen said...

10:34 AM WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Activity at U.S. manufacturing firms slowed a bit after hitting a six-year high in April, according to a closely followed survey of top executives released Monday.

Hold it and wait a minute.. how in the world could ISM have hit a SIX YEAR HIGH April?!

bob said...

I am not an expert, but the russians have done it before. Also, underground nuke testing was done in a much more dangerous place, Nevada, as far as earth plates go.

My general knowledge of geology is that the seafloor there is all sedimentary (oil is found in sedimentary rock/soil).

It's the kind of call that will never come out of his mouth. Very unpopular, and it sounds even worse.

The "relief well" they are drilling is a lottery ticket, with a 3 month wait.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=ayEGpyXteAqg

You are trying to hit, from the side, a 8-10inch target at the end of a 15,000 ft drilling string.

mcHAPPY said...

I am looking for the retracement of this wave to unload some TZA.

The drop from Friday afternoon in to this morning looks like an A-B-C for a B wave (which is always 3 waves) given the new push higher. we have started C and a clear 5 waves up is just complete.

karen said...

So basically, all this data is Orwellian..

AmenRa said...

ahab

After review I see there were increases in building permits in February and March which I believe is due to the 8k government handout. Now that it's ending (as seen from the rush in April) will building permits plunge?

CV said...

@Amen

Nothing will EVER plunge...

QE to infinity!

Anonymous said...

Ra-

permits are all I need to look at to know where residential construction is going

CV-

ZH had a post over the weekend showing an interview of a person who was an expert (I guess) and was saying the Russians have used the nuclear method w/ success-

but I have to side w/ your take- too much risk- who knows what other calamities may be caused-

it appears that the well will continue to leak for quite some time

karen said...

i don't have a mtg.. can i stop paying my property taxes and HOA fee?

http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2010/06/foreclosed_home_owners.html

CV said...

@karen

Talk to "Peggy"...

She'll have Obama paying your gas & mortgage...

bob said...

As far as the nuke goes, its the only way to get enough power to dislocate the earth and hopefully have it settle back down on top of the well bore.

You would need a lot more than 8-12" worth of conventional dynamite to do that. They are limited by the size of the bore.

In order to "cement" the casing to the earth they use shaped charges that cut through the steel pipe, and then scour the rock in order for there to be room to place the cement outside of the pipe.

Have you seen video of an underground test? In shallow tests the ground comes up, then settles back down, closing the bore hole that the nuke was placed in.

In deeper tests the ground goes straight down. The object would be to get it deep enough to have it contain itself.

This is a shallow test-

http://www.break.com/index/nuketest.html

It's not detailed as to where it happened, but my guess is Russians in Kazakhstan. Shallow test in a bog. There wasn't much they didn't try over there. If anyone was going to make a city slide into the ocean it was the USSR.

Deep test-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1f6vbiuUt0

karen said...

Shadow Inventory

3 Scenarios and a Wildcard

I-Man said...

Morning all, had my monitor crap out on my work computer this morning, spent 45min on hold waiting for tech support, just now logging in with a new monitor...

I see absolutely nothing hath changed.

I-Man said...

Would really expect to see a close below 1074 if the weakness is going to continue.

karen said...

good point on 1074, I-Man, but we did make a lower low than Friday! wailed chicken little.

my friend tells me i'm obsessive.. how can a person be obsessive when they have so many obsessions?! i mean, by definition, an obsession is a singular pursuit right?

mcHAPPY said...

@I

I disagree with the nothing has changed. We have resolution. The next plunge will be the real deal. Current downwards action off 1094.77 is most def corrective. We should push up for a 3, down for 4 but no lower than 1094.77, and finally one more push up. I just sold my TZA for a small loss. Once 1114 is touched I am looking for 5 waves to go all in.

I-Man said...

I've always felt that there is a fine line between passion and obsession...


And McH, certainly a possibility. You're really advancing on the EW, nice work. I can barely understand what you're talking about now.

:)

Leftback said...

Karen,

We are all a little obsessive here. Hence the level of detail....

Thanks for the links. That was a great post on 3 scenarios. I particularly liked the Big Tease and the June Swoon scenarios. Two things I would like to highlight from that chunk o' charts:

The 200 DMA is now Karen's Top.
Continued weakness/sideways action will lead to the Death Cross.

I could cheerfully pile in on the short side according to either of these but it does look as if it will take time to develop, perhaps as long as 4-6 weeks. Here are some reasons why:

World Cup (traders not paying attention)
BUCKY is consolidating and rebuilding a base for a new breakout.
JUNE/JULY jobs is going to be on CENSUS steroids, then it will fade.

So if you are long bonds here (as I am) you might want to play some defence ahead of ADP/NFP this week. It may not be real but that doesn't mean to say traders will not see a chance to gun this market higher.

mcHAPPY said...

Thanks, I... er, I think.

I like EW for the fact that I can check emotion at the door. Simple rules based on math I can do. Decisions I can't. Therefore I have really taken a liking to EW.

mcHAPPY said...

Sorry, I... Did not see Karen's comment on obsession. There I go again thinking it is all about me haha.

AmenRa said...

NYSE Trin has been holding above 1. It has dipped below a few times (thanks to desperate buying by the bulls). So a late day sell off is still in the cards.

karen said...

Well, I set her straight. I told her I was only f**king obsessive about f**king !!! and haven't heard back from her since.

Leftback said...

I should add that at the moment of writing LB is hedging heavily ahead of the jobs report and therefore not strictly speaking LONG Ts at this precise juncture. Slightly short for now, if anything.

I-Man said...

Haha... yeah, that was a multi reply post McH...

I should be more clear.

No, I think its great to see you pouring so much into it- if we're not continually learning in life, whats the point.

I-Man is purely discretionary, and shoots from the gut.

That said, I love the basics that I know about EW, but ultimately, I use it only as a compass (one of a few) of sorts for my own analysis.

At the end of the day though, all roads lead to Mt Zion. All waters return to the sea.

I-Man said...

Hoboy Karen, that will get em aroused...

karen said...

Pornography

Read the comments!!

I-Man said...

I sure hope that link is acceptable viewing for work...

Because I just cant resist.

AmenRa said...

I-Man

Go ahead. Do it. You know you want to. j/k It's about the Customs Office in Australia.

karen said...

it's easier to manipulate the dow than the spx or compq, btw.. not that i think any entity would do that sort of thing..

I-Man said...

Manipulation???

In the financial markets???

You must be crazy...

I-Man has come to the conclusion that manipulation is just in the market's DNA... or our DNA, I guess is more appropriate.

AmenRa said...

Karen

Manipulation? Mutual funds may not want to put inflows to work if the market is down hard on the first day of the month. Which means less money for TPTB to squeeze shorts.

AmenRa said...

Here we go again. The rumor that GS may settle with the SEC is hitting the wires again.

karen said...

speaking of crazy..

This will drive you crazy.

karen said...

Some Dow Theory if anyone is interested..

I-Man said...

Possible Gartley support pattern in play on the SPX 10min...

I'm still new at these, btw, so not sure about it, but it would appear to be indicating support at 1090.

Leftback said...

Don't bend over in front of Friday's jobs number, peeps. They are already bringing in a large shipment of Bear Lube (ht: Andy) and COLD STEEL.

Bear in mind that a hotly anticipated Friday often arrives early....

McFearless said...

thanks much for the Charts AT. I've only had a chance to look through once so far but I've got pretty similar general ideas the next several months.

I've come to enjoy reading the various rationale for the larger labels used at the 2000 top, maybe someday you could expand on how you came up with your larger labels.

AmenRa said...

BKX, XLF, JNK are not helping the bulls. Neither is ISSUES $ NET VOL which is negative for the NYSE and SPX.

McFearless said...

you could argue 3's and 5's up and down today, it all looks range bound for now.....still looking for at least 1120's before we head down again, or the higher range AT is going with the 1140's-1170's, perhaps a bit higher.

Mannwich said...

Late to the party this morning. What did I miss? Cliff notes please?

~Manny

karen said...

LB, but you know how i like to be.. oh, never mind! I am so bad today! But I don't seem to be entertaining or distracting anyone buy myself! laughing and laughing.

arbitrage789 said...

Fans of Carmen Reinhart will find some of this video interesting:

http://tinyurl.com/34ezz8n


She was on C-span recently (5/26/10) talking about debts, the history of debts, etc.

Her appearance begins at about 10:20 and continues until about 1:06:45

. . . . . . . . . .

One of her points is that gross government debt (in the U.S.) is currently 90% of GDP (and this does not include bailouts for Fannie/Freddie, or any loan guarantees). Historically, when the debt-to-GDP ratio has risen to 90%, median growth rates (among numerous countries) has declined by about 1% as a result.


Another little factoid she pointed out is that the U.S. government technically defaulted on its debt in 1933 when it unilaterally changed the terms its contract with creditors.

karen said...

Now you all show up.. I'll be good now.. Ben. I posted that dow theory link with you in mind..

Jeff, you've missed nothing.. the only one posting is me : )

Mannwich said...

@karen: Well, then I missed quite a bit, thank you very much! ;-)

Mannwich said...

I'm sure this was posted already but if not, I'm sure this isn't a surprise to anyone here.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/06/walk-aways-nyt-version/comment-page-1/#comment-311623

arbitrage789 said...

AmenRa @ 12:27

Two companies that are benefiting from the oil spill in the Gulf: Goldman Sachs, and Toyota.

(They're no longer the prime villains).

McFearless said...

Karen,

Yeah, I'm getting to all the links above.....and I just saw the post about your texting....lol.

McFearless said...

speaking of the oil spill, as I'm to understand it, JPM owns a large portion of BP

karen said...

Jeff, I read that TBP post and actually most if not all of the comments.. RE, one of my passions.. : )

Mannwich said...

Had coffee with a guy this morning who lives in an affluent suburb of Minneapolis where many of the heavy hitter big corp execs (and hangers on) live and he said he's hearing rumblings of big million dollar" home strategic defaults being the next wave to hit in his neck of the woods. Combine that with the CRE implosion waitng to happen and all of the other shite that's happening in the world, and it's literally a slow motion train wreck running unabated.

karen said...

DL, i must say, you are a ray of sunshine in my morning..

Mannwich said...

That suburb is Orono, MN if anyone interested in Googling. Target's CEO lives there, as do many big TC corporate execs. Of course, the corp execs won't default but people like the guy I met with who no longer has a job might.

arbitrage789 said...

Karen,

Hey, thanks.

I-Man said...

Yeah, love the Rainbow Brite costume, DL...

karen said...

Jeff, don't forget for weeks here on this blog I was adding up about $10 million a week in outstanding loan amounts in one little beach town near me.. Laguna

look at the unpaid balances on these homes from last week:

http://lagunahomes.freedomblogging.com/2010/05/27/these-laguna-beach-homes-are-off-to-auction-16/4729/

arbitrage789 said...

I-Man,

One can only do so much with these avatars, given the small space.

karen said...

DL, tell me about it! wasn't it last week i tried to post my entire self head to heel and got my lap in the box.

Mannwich said...

That's right, karen. The higher end is imploding right now. But this was all predicted by many people even last year. Once the higher end market implodes in earnest, then prices on all levels below it will drop again as well. Matter of time. Just playing out in super slo mo.

I-Man said...

It made me smile and think of the positive things in life.

Anonymous said...

Loonie falls despite rate increase -But CAD green against AUD and EUR. Is China story over?

I-Man said...

Bears need a little drums along the Mohawk right about now...

Do a little "Tom-Tom'ing" on the market here...

CV said...

@Manny

"then prices on all levels below it will drop again as well. Matter of time. Just playing out in super slo mo"

Maybe it won't end up playing out that way...

Who's to say that the people with $10,000 a month mortgages (that make, maybe, a $200,000+ combined income) haven't just been socking cash into the mattress while they weren't paying the mortgage...

They'll default, wait 5 years for the bank to catch up and kick them out... Then go get a shovel, dig up their stash and pay cash for a SCALED DOWN model...

karen said...

$vix is of interest on the 30 min.. JNK looking heavy..

arbitrage789 said...

Karen @ 1:05

And Leftback has his problems too, given that he has such a big...um...rooster.

Anonymous said...

Ra @ 10:44-

April's permits plummeted from March- typically March and April are equally strong months-

we all know why obviously- but the tale of the tape will be the seasonally adjusted number's going forward-

what is in the incentive to purchase now or in the near future?

CV said...

If I knew, in 2005, how the Fed and the new Administration would have gone about handling the crisis...

Hell, I might have just buried some cash...

Move into a MANSION (with nothing down)... Default... and throw playboy bunny parties every weekend...

AmenRa said...

Hee hee. Reading news form Feb 2008 after the monthly 3LB reversal in Jan 2008.

http://www.businessweek.com/investing/insights/blog/archives/2008/02/cheer_up_economy.html

Investing Insights
Cheer Up, Economy!
Posted by: Ben Steverman on February 4, 2008

Feeling depressed about the economy? Let’s latch onto some reasons to be optimistic, courtesy of Marc Chandler of Brown Brothers Harriman:
“There is no doubt that the U.S. economy has slowed down,” but “it is still too early to assume the U.S. economy is contracting.”
Growth in the fourth quarter gross domestic product was recently reported at 0.6% in a preliminary estimate. Sure, that sounds bad, but the advance report is “notoriously unreliable,” Chandler wrote. Chandler points out that 25% of the required data for the final GDP number isn’t available yet at all, and another 30% of the measure is based on partial data.
Last week’s employment report, showing non-farm payrolls fell 17,000 in January, is also subject to revisions.
How long until we know for sure that the economy is, or isn’t, heading for a recession? Chandler suggests we won’t really know “until the end of February or early March when [fourth-quarter] GDP is revised and we get a new reading of the labor market.”
And by then, the economy might be warming up again. As Chandler writes, “the aggressive monetary stimulus and fiscal stimulus in the pipeline should underpin the economy by the greenshoots of spring.”
So here’s to hoping the economy isn’t bad as it looks, and that significant help is on the way.
Think happy thoughts. Think happy thoughts. Think happy thoughts.

UPDATE: It took less than a day for my attempts at optimism to fall flat. We woke up Tuesday to find that the ISM nonmanufacturing business activity index fell below the key mark of 50, dropping all the way from 54.4 in December to 41.9 in January. The “dire reading” … “portrays the emergence of recession-like conditions in the economy,” Bear Stearns chief economist said.


***looking for more headlines BRB

arbitrage789 said...

"I might have just buried some cash..."

That's what the Cayman Islands are for.

mcHAPPY said...

@ahab 1:11

"what is in the incentive to purchase now or in the near future?"

I dunno but maybe because prices have come down so far that they are a bargain and if people do not act now they will soon be forever priced out again.

(No, I am not serious.)

I-Man said...

Hmmm... on the hunt for buystops are we now, Mr Market?

Be alert for a gap up to 1092 if they gun em.

AmenRa said...

DL

Point taken.

McFearless said...

Anon, wherever you are, you can be better than this:

"Loonie falls despite rate increase -But CAD green against AUD and EUR. Is China story over?"

Rate cuts or rate increases aren't going to change any trend in currency but for a short time. By this logic interest rate cuts in late 07 through 2008 would have been dollar negative.....they weren't.

We can also erase the silly classroom talk about what rate changes mean for equity prices....there is no correlation.

arbitrage789 said...

AmenRa @ 1:16

About GS, or the rooster?

CV said...

@DL

You might as well just attach a radioactive NEON SIGN to your money (with a GPS attached to it)...

arbitrage789 said...

CV @ 1:17

With Obama in charge, you may have a point.

Anonymous said...

so . . .

DL is a little ray of sunshine?

btw- your 12:51 is pretty much on the money-

one's misery can lead to another's happiness

mcHAPPY said...

Looks like we are entering possible 3rd wave territory. If 1094.77 was wave 1 and 2 ended at 1083.83, wave 3 targets would be:

1.618 wave 1 = 1110.17
2.618 wave 1 = 1126.45

CV said...

@DL

I'm constantly amazed by what seems to be your impression that ANYONE is just going to calmly walk up to the teller window and "cash out" their electronic balance on whatever when all is said and done...

Anonymous said...

mchappy @ 1:14-

the incentive is lower prices or financing concessions-

which mean the same thing in the end

McFearless said...

DL, 12:49. thanks and interesting.

As all the socionomics peeps would say, it's not really the level of debts that actually matter.....it is whether or not the market has lost confidence. Social Mood.

anecdotal sure, but I find it interesting when we get comments on here from people out of the country that say they 'bet on the USA', or that USA is still the 'best', or something like this. Offers some insight into how we can still roll our debt over so easily. That'll last until it doesnt...

Anonymous said...

@CV, you'r still interested in F?

"U.S. investigating reports of floor mats trapping pedals in Ford cars". -http://ca/finance.yahoo.com/

From Canada

CV said...

@anon

I'm interested in the F chart...

Haven't come to any conclusions yet about making any plays...

McFearless said...

If we couldn't make a trade because of a potential lawsuit in a company then no trades would ever be made in equities.....none of them.

AmenRa said...

DL

re: BP vs GS & TM

CV said...

@Amen (1:30)

...and just think... Obama must be pleased about all 3...

AmenRa said...

another:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=alUCl4KSvsNo&refer=economy

Fed Lends $28.8 Billion, Adds Auction Collateral
By Scott Lanman

March 20 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve, in its first extension of credit to non-banks since the Great Depression, lent $28.8 billion as of yesterday to the biggest securities firms to try to stabilize capital markets.

In a separate announcement, the Fed expanded collateral eligible for its first auction of Treasuries March 27 to include bundled mortgage debt and securities linked to commercial real- estate loans. The value of the sale was set at $75 billion, part of a $200 billion facility unveiled last week.

The auctions and Wall Street's new loan facility are Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke's answer to a credit squeeze that's eroded U.S. economic growth and forced Bear Stearns Cos. to sell for $2 a share to JPMorgan Chase & Co. The recipients of the Fed's credit are getting cash and Treasury notes in exchange for securities tied to mortgages and other distressed debt.

``The Fed's pulling out all the stops here to add liquidity,'' said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York. ``All these things are an attempt to bring down financing costs.''

***QE 2.0 coming soon

Mannwich said...

Here you go, karen:

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/06/distressed-house-sales-movin-on-up.html

Anonymous said...

wow- from ZH

Gold At $6,000? That was so May 2010. The next target, according to deflationist David Rosenberg, may be $10,000.

does anyone buy into this??? That is assuming I guess the total destruction of global currencies-

I have a roll of silver quarters somewhere- hope I can buy something with that

AmenRa said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
arbitrage789 said...

Bought two S&P contracts last night @ 1084.
Was a little nervous this morning when I woke up at 6:00 and saw them down at the 1072 level.

AmenRa said...

ahab

Rosenberg said he'd believe gold was in a bubble at $5000 yesterday on Bloomberg.

McFearless said...

My take: How about gold gets to 2k before we start slapping on a 5x multiple above that? Better yet, lets see if it can get to $1,400 while deflation puts a death grip on everything.

Also, I think it was P Schiff Rosie was talking about with $10k gold wasn't it?

fwiw, BR had a long paper called The Shadow Price of Gold that was very well written, at least a year ago in the Think Tank, it talked about $10k/oz of gold, might be worth digging for it. So, the higher gold goes, the more common it will become for higher calls. It's a real science.

arbitrage789 said...

Amen @ 1:30

I was only kidding.

Anonymous said...

Ra-

I mean really- if you are a true deflationist wouldn't you be betting on the USD?

Nic posted a great piece from Denninger over the weekend on gold btw

AmenRa said...

I see what they are up to. Targeting the monthly 10 SMA on the SPX. Has been used as a direction indicator by TPTB. Today it's at 1094.85. They tried to get there this morning but failed. Second attempt in progress. Third try (failure) is the key.

CV said...

@ahab (1:35)

I guess Mr. T will be the new Warren Buffett if that happens...

CV said...

All the "gangstas" will rule!

I-Man said...

lmao

AmenRa said...

ahab

I read KD's piece. Gekko had a retort over at ZH.

I think the gist of the gold arguments is that fiat currencies never last (at least not yet) and the dollar is the safe place until it isn't.

I-Man said...

Next breach of 1090 (if there is one) means big trouble in little china for longs... a successful retest and 1126 is the target.

CV said...

@Amen (1:44)

Yeah but notwithstanding the SMA itself, wouldn't something like that be like a monthly 3lb (in that the "closing candle") was important?

I mean... the number won't tick different until next month...

And for that matter... 1094 WAS the exact 3lb monthly reversal number, correct?

bob said...

I live across the street from a "we buy gold place". They should call it "the money laundry".

The cast of characters that come and go, and when they come and go keeps me entertained.

Anonymous said...

. . .and here is a thought- Denninger indicated in the same piece on gold- re hyperinflation- said we already had it-

Those who are looking for hyperinflation are about 20 years too late. We already had it. First in stock prices, and then in houses. Anyone who cares to argue that taking the SPX from 100 to 1500 over a period of 20 years is not "hyperinflation" has rocks in their head.

interesting take I thought

bob said...

GG was one of the first commenters at ZH, he has a very long and detailed history of being on the wrong side of every trade.

The KD piece was good, although I think on some level he shouldn't have lowered himself to GG.

McFearless said...

"All the "gangstas" will rule!"


Oh man, you know I've actually thought about this....funny.

AmenRa said...

CV

1095.63 was the monthly 3LB reversal price. That hasn't been tested yet either.

CV said...

@bob

Tell Gekko to "never get emotional about a trade"

CV said...

@McF (1:54)

I'm telling you...

The trouble with folks is that they never, ever, spend the time to work things out in their heads...

You... to play out scenarios until their conclusion...

I can just imagine gold going to $10,000 and all the Ice Cubes, 50 cents being the "kings of the hill"...

CV said...

Dentistry would probably be the best occupation...

Anonymous said...

bob-

I thought Gekko did a piece where KD was called out- therefore the rebuttal by KD

CV said...

F***

People would be digging thru landfills looking for discarded computers & their CPU units...

CV said...

Knocking down traffic & light poles for the aluminum...

& gutting houses for the copper pipes...

Anonymous said...

and re GG- I have read his comments from time to time-

but would you really want to put all your blue chips on one bet?

if he is betting on the demise of the USD- I mean really- what's the ETA on that?

CV said...

When Obama figures out a way to put his face on it... That's when we'll have a new currency...

McFearless said...

C,

Only problem is, a lot of that gold found its way into their mouths...wonder if they will be able to chew. I think the historical record of rappers ending up with a lot of money is pretty bad though. We know S. Carter is rich.....and a few others that have been able to hang on to it, or make it grow.....same odds you get selling crack and doing well I suppose.

@ahab,

"Anyone who cares to argue that taking the SPX from 100 to 1500 over a period of 20 years is not "hyperinflation" has rocks in their head."

This makes more sense to me, but I hate that people always want to use the price of something to "prove" inflation, deflation, hyperinflation.

Could have simply said that the increase in credit over that time was basically never seen before....growth in money supply + credit = inflation.

Credit is huge....and there is a shortage of dollars to pay dollar based debts....

AmenRa said...

I-Man

If the low gets taken out then look out below.

mcHAPPY said...

So there goes my theory - again.

Last guess for a push to new highs:

We are starting the final leg of an A-B-C.

1083.83-1092.97 was the B.

The RUT is not playing this game though.

karen said...

my MS friend sent me this last night:

One more interesting opinion was this out-of-consensus comment on Gold from Richard Wiggins… All bubble have nearly identical characteristics. The second half of the 1970s witnessed the outperformance of energy issues. At $30 barrel, oil companies were clearly in fat city. But the gonzo run-up in oil prices that propelled this sector in 1982 contained the seeds for an eventual glut that eventually sent it right back down. Similarly, gold, which was outside the pale of serious discussion in the 1970s at $35 an ounce, entered the investment mainstream at $600 and $700 an ounce between 1978 and 1980, when it was quadrupling. Only 15% of gold is used as a monetary metal; the rest of it is used as a commercial metal, and that use, particularly as a corrosion-resistant electrical conductor for semiconductors, is declining. Regrettably, it is a soft, semi-useless metal with very few industrial applications. Gold is just another fiat currency. The only reason gold is valuable is that we believe it is valuable. Ultimately, this gold bubble ends in tears. When and how far gold's price will decline is anyone's guess, but a smart bet is "sooner rather than later."

When I told my friend that the comment was idiotic, he chastised me; so i then conceded that idiotic wasn't the best word, misguided, misinformed or effing stupid was better.. (i pointed out that gold was not fiat by any definition, nor was only 15% of gold used as a monetary metal.) i also said that gold would either go under $1k, or rip to $6K, but it would be worth a lot more under $1K.

McFearless said...

Didn't Gekko write the post ripping Prechter to shreds earlier this year or late last year because Prechter was saying he was a dollar bull and this was a buying signal for gold?

Yeah, I think he did.

I thought that was funny, if you actually followed RP's advice you would own both gold and silver, and if you had enough money you'd have bought platinum as well. He's very forward about this in all of his writings and has been for over a decade. I also have seen writings of RP in the 70's touting him as the "ultimate gold bug"

Indeed prechter's calls on gold more recently have not been good, they have been terrible, but if you actually listened to him, it wouldnt' have mattered that he made bad technical calls on gold and silver....you were told to own them anyway.

bob said...

Ahab

My point was more of who the hell is GG? KD has a little more cred with me than GG. Just because someone wants to fight doesn't mean you should fight them.

There is an old saying along the lines of- you don't want to wrestle a pig in the mud, the pig enjoys it and in the end you just end up covered in $hit.

My eloquence is off, but I am sure you get the idea.

Anonymous said...

"gutting houses for the copper pipes..."

I think that is being done already-

and to segue into a topic CV touched upon earlier-

have you all read up on what is in tap for Detroit-

thousands of homes and neighborhoods to be leveled and turned into acres and acres of farm land-

I found this pretty intriguing

Privately Employed said...

http://money.cnn.com/2010/06/01/news/economy/contract_jobs/index.htm

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Jobs may be coming back, but they aren't the same ones workers were used to.

Many of the jobs employers are adding are temporary or contract positions, rather than traditional full-time jobs with benefits. With unemployment remaining near 10%, employers have their pick of workers willing to accept less secure positions.

McFearless said...

"Gold is just another fiat currency."


Anyone that makes the statement above isn't worth a second thought. That might be the dumbest thing I've heard all year.....well, almost,... it is a GIB.

CV said...

"thousands of homes and neighborhoods to be leveled and turned into acres and acres of farm land-"

But no... let's piss money away on New Orleans (which is under sea level)...

CV said...

@McF

Auric Goldfinger made his limousine out of gold...

Maybe if they made FIATS out of gold, then it would be a fiat currency...

CV said...

The original fiat factory is in Torino, Italy... BTW... at a place they call "Lingotto" (the ingot)

CV said...

Are there any other pieces of useless knowledge that CV can bore anyone with today?

karen said...

CV, you are amazingly, startlingly hilarious!

Anonymous said...

"The only reason gold is valuable is that we believe it is valuable."

c'mon Karen- you have to admit that that is true-

the Aztec's valued cacao beans-

who am I to judge

karen said...

did you all just see what happened to crude? it's been tied to spx for days.. i've been saying that for days anyway..

CV said...

@karen

I'm just trying to be entertaining while I'm waiting for something to happen...

Here's the theme song of the day (and maybe tomorrow too)...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jPmFZlsV8Iw

karen said...

ahab, i am the first to admit/concede/acknowledge that beauty is in the eye of the beholder.. obviously, food, water, and shelter are far more valuable than gold. but as far as money goes.. it doesn't get better than gold going back century after century..

Anonymous said...

and this kind of brought a tear to my eye-

Al Gore, Tipper Gore to Separate After 40 Years

she probably had too big of a carbon footprint I imagine

arbitrage789 said...

If we can't muster a rally on a "magic Monday" (yes, I know it's Tuesday), then we're headed back down to 1065 (or lower).

McFearless said...

ahab, 2:23,

agreed, but how do you call the top of a 5,500 year (maybe even longer???) bubble?

OH, look, here's the news moving crude:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100601/ap_on_re_us/us_gore_separation


Wonder what it means for the....inter net.

CV said...

@ahab

Both seem capable of spewing tons of methane into the atmosphere...

AmenRa said...

Watching the SPX do all it can to fill the gap on the 5min chart. Priceless.

McFearless said...

I think the 'Monday rally' is about over, we went down last monday and were flat the two before that. mf's are all out of cash and more important, every blog and their mothers were writing about UP Mondays the last several weeks as a "strategy"

BinT said...

http://www.engadget.com/2010/06/01/hp-cutting-9-000-jobs-during-billion-dollar-enterprise-services/

HP cutting 9,000 jobs during billion dollar enterprise services restructuring

bob said...

http://www.forexlive.com/110307/all/vp-biden-expects-strong-jobs-report-friday

In other stupid VP news...

karen said...

AR, priceless?! this is maddening to me.. absolutely nucking futs!

CV said...

Well as for Al & Tipper...

Al should be glad he invented the internet (which made things like MATCH.COM possible)...

He's such a forward thinker!

Anonymous said...

@ ahab
flew into detroit 4 weeks ago and was amazed looking down on the amount of green space, 1, 2, 3 miles out from city center.

CV said...

@bob

Yeah... Biden is WELL AWARE that the strategy of the census hires was to hire and re-fire the same worker about a half dozen times to juice the number...

So of course he's positive...

CV said...

@72bat

Why don't they just turn Detroit into a "penal colony" (like Escape from New York)...

CV has a solution for everything...

AmenRa said...

Karen

It's traded through it the last fifteen minutes but has not been able to close the gap on the 5 min chart.

CV said...

I mean... Probably for the people living there, life wouldn't change all that much...

They could go from making "cars" to making "license plates"...

kinda the same!

BinT said...

I think we'll find out in the divorce that it was actually Tipper who invented the internet.

..Right, Karen?

I-Man said...

Just put in my 2 weeks...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1qIrmQowjQ


I-Man must cast off the shackles.

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