Morning Audibles 4.6.10 - Butler Didn't Do It & Other "UnShining Moments"

I don't really know where to start this morning... The markets? MEH... I'm about damn sick of them by now... Of course, that's what we'll mostly talk about today, but this is ROMEAMERICA dammit! And therefore we know that "work" and things like that are only to get us from holiday weekends, through to 'One Shining Moment'/Opening Day Mondays, and onto Masters Thursday. I suppose CV will have to be the entertainment in the intermission (note: this is the part of the "Gladiator Games" where they slaughter all the animals that were killed in the first act, cook it up and feed it to the Romans - In case you were wondering).


OK - Here's where we start (In our anthology of UN-SHINING MOMENTS)


So Obama tosses out the first pitch at the Washington Nationals game. This was the 2nd time he's thrown out a first pitch (1st at last years ALL STAR GAME - which he only attended because he thought he'd been voted into the lineup). First of all... Dude, you can't throw... If he were pitching a real game, the count on the batter would be 2 balls and no strikes right now. By next year, he'll have "walked" the guy (I wonder if the batter is named Jamie or Lloyd)... What's the deal with his toeing the rubber? Dude! You're not holding anyone on first base, just throw the effin' thing over the plate and get off the field... 2nd? This is a WASHINGTON NATIONALS home opener. What's the deal with the CHICAGO WHITE SOX hat? We know you're from 60606, but come on... Honor your host for God's sake! This isn't "Crips & Bloods" dude (I know the Nationals have "Blood" colors - but you don't have to silently acknowledge the CRIPS in the process)


CRIPS love "Sox" hats
 
You're doing it WRONG!
You're STILL doing it wrong!

Look, cut the crap and get down to basics. This is how you do it. You first honor your host (in what you wear), you walk out to the mound, waste no time, THROW A STRIKE down the middle... Obama said afterwards that he had been throwing so many strikes in practice and that on the moment ...the ball slipped out of his hand. WTF? No, seriously... WTFF?




Sort of like this... 


Stop trying to please the people like this who voted you into office!


Or this guy (notice baseball hat @:09), who shares your TEAM affiliation...


And whatever you do, don't break out into song (like he did once).




If you keep going the way you are going, what was once a great thing (like the 2010 NCAA Basketball Tournament), is going to end up as a crappy music video that you couldn't even "lip synch" properly...






CV is pining for "simpler" days (like this - which is "Hinkle Hall" - the site of the Indiana State Championship game in the movie "HOOSIERS" where tiny Hickory High knocks off powerhouse South Bend - "Hinkle Hall" is actually where BUTLER plays its home games on campus - Truth is stranger than fiction).

237 comments:

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karen said...

speaking of commodity currencies.. the US isn't that far down the list in oil reserves (too bad we consume so much!!) and what's up with Iraq? a bit of a bust all the way around.. no weapons of mass destruction, no crude oil.

Mannwich said...

From one of the few people worth listening to at CNBC - Dana Olick. Foreclosures rising.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/04/cnbcs-olick-foreclosure-pig-in-python.html

bob said...

All I ever seem to find are trust fund kids loosing their asses. It can be entertaining. Thanks for the link.

mcHAPPY said...

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/2161-Oh-Really-Kocherlakota-on-CNBS.html

@Manny

Denninger had a nice response to that earlier today.

Nic said...

Bob, I am also in a prop traders chatroom for most of London session, its a mixed bunch of fixed income and currencies but the flow information is good if you are interested

Mannwich said...

I think crazy Karl is spot on there. The Fed truly is trapped. Not a surprise. Many of us have been asserting this for a while now. The key for Wall Street is to get one last round of raping and pillaging in during this bubble becuase it might be their last trip to the trough for a while.

McFearless said...

"According to the minutes, Hoenig offered the “change in communication would provide the Committee flexibility to begin raising rates modestly” and “making such an adjustment to the Committee’s target for the federal funds rate sooner rather than later would reduce longer-run risks to macroeconomic and financial stability while continuing to provide needed support to the economic recovery.”

is hoenig the only one watching the bond market at this point?

Mannwich said...

What's a "bond market"?

Mannwich said...

Oh, you mean THAT little thing. Probably.

Leftback said...

Short IWM overnight.

Will take a peek at FX in the morning, then probably short crude. Not a huge position here, but it seems like a percentage play to be short equities into the long bond auctions.

As for bonds, the worst is over, and Greece will put a bid into USTs.

Helicopter Ben said...

You mean if we have a manure sale, nobody will buy?

McFearless said...

@lefty,

At what point do you stop hedging long bond exposure and just move out?

I have to begin to consider a scenario at the minimum.

Nic said...

I love crazy Karl's advice yesterday ... if you are underwater and you have an offer for a short sale, take it ...

CV said...

@McF

...and those were the minutes from the March meeting...

the 10y wasn't sitting on "4" back then...

Mannwich said...

Finally, some legitimate good news. Thankfully, we're in recovery.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/04/food-stamp-usage-hits-record-39-million.html

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Manny,

I agree the Fed is trapped. I think that succinctly expresses it...and the old people will make money by selling dog food to each other....

Mannwich said...

@Bruce: Maybe there's a burgeoning food stamp market that can be traded every day on an exchange of some sort?

bob said...

Thanks nic, let me catch up with what you gave me already.

To everyone, appreciate the opportunity to listen in on what real people are looking at and watching, without the octobox.

CNBC classic-
http://www.cnbc.com/id/32913196/Why_Chicken_Feet_Matter_to_Business_News

bob said...

Its worth reading, the ANALysis in the 5h paragraph is all you need to now.

Leftback said...

"At what point do you stop hedging long bond exposure and just move out? I have to begin to consider a scenario at the minimum."

McF: There is no plan really for a classic "recovery". We seem to be in a CLASSIC ZIRP environment, a classic LIQUIDITY TRAP. So unless the FED/Timmy does something of unbelievable stupidity, deflation should return and a JAPANESE lost decade will ensue. In this scenario, Treasuries will gain. A blowout in yields would result in collapse, and then Ts would gain again !!

It's the GARY SHILLING argument. In between times, you hedge. If you're lucky or (gulp) good, you make money on the coupon and net more money on the hedges while waiting for the return of the apocalypse, Nikkei style.

Note that our entry point in the summer was close to 3.85-4.00% 10y and 2.70-2.75% on the 5y, so there are no losses to date. We also have a position that is basically AGG.

CV said...

@manny

You need to go on food stamps so you can afford to pay the TEXT MESSAGING SURCHARGE on your cell phone bill...

Didn't you know?

Tiger's Wood said...

I pay a SURCHARGE for SEXTING?

CV said...

@bob

Michele Caruso Cabrera talking about PLUMP BREASTS (on chickens)...

But hey... Now THAT's Journalism!

karen said...

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The U.S. Treasury Department, in a transaction report, said it exchanged its $72 million holdings of Independent Bank Corp. (IBCP) preferred stock for "mandatory convertible preferred stock."

This strategy provides "a bridge to private capital," which is a primary goal in this phase of the Troubled Asset Relief Program, according to the Treasury Department.

The Treasury said it will evaluate such exchanges on a case-by-case basis. The agency has restructured investments in the past with Midwest Banc Holdings Inc. (MBHI), Citigroup Inc. (C), Popular Bank, and Superior Bank, which is a subsidiary of Superior Bancorp (SUPR).

bob said...

MJN is a food stamp play. They make infant formula. I worked in a super market and saw the seeder side of this when I was younger.

It made me a pretty good buck out of the bottom last year.

WIC and food stamps can be used to buy enfamil. Its a high ticket item which can then be resold for about 70% cash easily on the black market.

The process is usually buy at the big grocery store(walmart or other), then go to the bodega and resell it back to them for cash. Terrible but true.

The new whiskey?

bob said...

CV, I canceled my cable after that one. They pulled the on air clip, the blog was in response to it. She had all of her assets on display.

Leftback said...

The Bond Report 4.6.10

Blessed are the meek, for they shall enjoy a rebound rally. Today was FIXED INCOME day as inwestors snapped up beaten down credit of all delicious flavours, from HY (yum yum) through a variety of GOVIES (slurp), with a preference for the belly of the curve.

10y and 30y auctions tomorrow and Thursday, so one might expect a mini-steepener before 1pm and a flattener thereafter. 2s10s at 282 bps here, not far from the 290 levels that marked the peak a few weeks back.

Corpies: LQD 0.24%; AGG 0.13%; JNK 0.38%; HYG 0.65%;
Govies: TLT 0.16%; IEI 0.20%; TIP 0.40%

We were stopped out of our hedge overnight and thereafter we did nothing. May nibble on long bonds into any weakness tomorrow.

Leftback said...

"buy at the big grocery store(walmart or other), then go to the bodega and resell it back to them for cash"

OH, yes. A staple of the economy in low income neighborhoods. Then buy all your fruit/veg/meat locally if you can find it and rice/beans in bulk - clothes at the dollar store. Actually, this is life in the 3rd world and familiar to anyone who has known poverty - it isn't glamorous but it is democracy and deflation in action, and every banker's worst nightmare.

karen said...

For anyone interested.. in bullish presentations..

http://www.clsa.com/forum/sf10/index.cfm?display=presentation-archive&id=10036

Dennis Kneale and Squeal said...

How did CNBC anchorettes get so plump and juicy? Because American anchorettes are bred to have large breasts, in order to satisfy Americans’ taste which favors large breasts. A consequence of breeding anchorettes with big breasts is that they end up having big, plump feet as well.

karen said...

$tran.. almost a new high less than a pt to go.. but it was a new closing high.

karen said...

The Greenhill guy is saying the one lagging sector: RE

Anonymous said...

I believe this company does some formula selling:

PRGO.

b22/mcFear

Leftback said...

C: Let's hope no-one here is ever attacked with a hot steak.

http://www.nydailynews.com/ny_local/2010/03/30/2010-03-30_scores_sez_dancer_got_it_twisted.html

karen said...

ben, prgo.. laughing! nice climb!

Leftback said...

Steve Keen on the Aussie housing bubble after RBA hike. Canada, you got it coming to you also.

Not Normal

Nic said...

Thanks guys ... tedious afternoons are better here.

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