Sunday Evening S&P Update

Good Evening Survivor Capitalists.

Attached here are some latest thoughts on the S&P 500. The bottom line for short term trading is that 1167 should now be considered key support. It looks like the market wants to take a quick ride to the low 1200s before terminating the wave up from the early February.

I missed putting out a report last weekend due to the fact I was out of town supporting my wife's business at the last frontier of capitalism: the Warrenton/Roundtop Antique Festival. I think of it as the last bastion of capitalism because of the unrestricted nature of the event. Anyone can set up a booth for 10 days for a relatively cheap price (i.e. $200-->$1,000 for a 200 sq.ft space). There are few restrictions on what you can sell, how you sell it, or your hours of operation. Basically, if one brings good inventory and presents it well, one can have some good success. Alternatively, in one brings crap products, the marketplace lets you know it very quickly and the vendors don't return. This market efficiently "separates the wheat from the chaff."

I love going to this show mostly for the people. It's pure "Americana," as it's a beautiful cross-section of this country: from the true "gypsy" dealer who lives in his truck to the high end dealer accustomed to serving only the rich and famous. Everyone is welcome here.

Last night, while watching the Final Four, I had the privilege of chatting with a few folks at the "Third Base" Bar (A "real" country bar that only takes cash, serves only beer and has the menu scrawled on the wall) in Warrenton, TX. One person was an African-American furniture mover from Atlanta, GA. He had been moving furniture all over the state of Texas for weeks and was sleeping in a tent. He had this to say: "Hey, you gotta go where the work is. I've got a mortgage to pay. My wife complains about me being away so much, but this is good work. I gotta be here. This is good money. The bills don't stop." Indeed....

The other person I chatted with was a lady named "Jackie," who had been working non-stop in a food both for several days. She was a local who was studying to be a Registered Nurse. Her plan was to get her license and open an "Assisted Living" home nearby, bankrolled only by her family and friends (No TBTF banks involved here).

Both of these people look exhausted, but satisfied in their own way. Each was doing what they had to do in order to "make it." Those kinds of conversations make me hopeful about this country, despite our many problems. This remains one of the few places where you can easily "go where the work is" and improve yourself if you have the determination and a little bit of help from friends and family.

Let's hope it continues to be that way....

Hope everyone had a good Easter Weekend.

S&P 500 Update 4 Apr 10


AmenRa said...

Thanks Andy. I have 1165.05 as the weekly 3LB mid which is where I would see sentiment turning from bullish to bearish.

Andy T said...

Thanks Amen. It's interesting how we tend to get similar "stop" points coming from different angles on the market.

I-Man said...

Jah bless America, dammit.

Make me an angel, that flies from Montgomery.

AmenRa said...


I know it's an odd coincidence. But even though TA has many different forms they reach similar conclusions many times more often than not.

Unknown said...

You know, I hesitate to mention this, cause the algos are likely to care not and completely smash any notion of the idea, but, nonetheless, I can' help but feel a likeness in the activity I have observed up to this pt surrounding the BLS report with that of the Jul/08 w/e over which the Fed announced lending support for the FRE/FNM trash complex.

karen said...

In case anyone was worried about me in shaking so cal.. i didn't feel a thing! was on the sand at the beach... i can see where the water sloshed OUT of the pool.. had numerous texts from people as well.. LOL. my son was actually frightened.. you should see the so cal quake map! and baja had the big one!

SC said...

Thanks for sharing your excellent analysis, Andy. Your Holmes reference brought to mind another famous saying of the world's first consulting detective: "It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts."

CV said...

NEW THREAD UP - Basically, this morning I REPOSTED this thread from Andy T in case anyone missed it due to the holiday weekend

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