Morning Corner 11.22.11

SODA (weekly info)
new low 32.45
trend=down
low= 32.45
rev= 34.63; mid= 33.54


Is the sun setting on SODA? It's back to testing its 0.0% retrace. It's trying to break below the declining wedge. It's below all SMA's. A monthly close below 33.05 will have the monthly 3LB trending down.



FSLR (weekly info)
new low 45.43
trend=down
low= 45.53
rev= 53.27; mid= 49.35


All of they hype around FLSR is for naught. The monthly 3LB has been trending down since 2/09. The weekly 3LB started trending down 8/11. It's below all SMA's. It's below its 61.8% minor retrace and quickly making its way to the 0.0%.

AmenRa's Corner

Creditcane™: I decided to deep fry a turkey in celebration of my return.

SPX
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(89) & SMA(55). Tested and failed the 50.0% retrace (1204.50). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1218.28). QE2infinity. Now below the weekly and monthly mids.



DXY
Bullish short day (didn't confirm hanging man). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held the 61.8% minor retrace (78.16). Holding above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 77.93). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal up…yet.



VIX
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(55). Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace (33.51). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 48.00). The grip of the "fear" zone is strong.



GOLD
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace (1714.40). Further below SMA(21,55,89). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1639.80). Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Still failing its 61.8% minor retrace (1.3596). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3707).



JNK
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Now failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace (37.62). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 39.51).



10YR YIELD
Spinning top day. Failing SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing its 38.2% minor retrace (21.37). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 22.32).



WTI
Bearish short day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 50.0% retrace (97.35). New low on dally 3LB (reversal is 97.79). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal down.



SILVER
Bearish long day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 38.2% minor retrace (31.85). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 36.58).



BKX
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 38.2% minor retrace (36.60). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 41.97).



HYG/LQD
Bearish long day. Tested and failed SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 61.8% minor retrace (0.7643). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 0.7776).



USDJPY
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(55). Failing its 61.8% minor retrace (77.497). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 75.70).



Nat Gas (weekly info)
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
low= 3.310
rev= 3.920; mid= 3.615

IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.

Week Ahead Post: S&P 500

Hello All,

Looking forward to the short week ahead. We'll be camping with friends for Thanksgiving, which is far and away the best Holiday of the year. There's no pressure...no stress....just family, friends and food.

S&P500 is looking pretty punk, but this should only be the b-wave of a triangle. So, get ready for choppy/grinding stuff lower. I remain 20% of Max Short on the S&P500 and have now lowered my stop from 1296 to 1260. This is a market that looks headed for 1154-1160 in the next few weeks.

Market Commentary 20NOV11


Addendum:

Why do I get such great satisfaction watching Bob Stoops LOSE?  Maybe it's his extreme smugness and arrogance.  Maybe it's the sourpuss/dour look that's always on his mug.  Maybe it's the fact that he never takes the blame for any loss.  In his postgame interview he made comments like..."they out-executed us....when we get spread out on defense like that, we need guys to make plays...they executed...we didn't."

Note the nuance to that kind of commentary.  What he's really saying is:  "My cornerbacks got beat.  They didn't play well."

What was missing from his comments was any blame for play calling, game management, defensive schemes not working well, preparation, etc, etc.  They're underpaid amateur athletes Bob....

"C'mon Man!"

AmenRa's Corner

Creditcane™: You can feel me in the room. You can only see me in the corner of your eyes.

SPX
Doji day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(89). Failing the 38.2% retrace (1241.13). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1284.59). QE2infinity. Further below monthly & daily 3LB mids.



DXY
Hanging man day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed the 61.8% minor retrace (78.16). Holding above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 77.26). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal up…yet.



VIX
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(89). Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace (33.51). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 48.00). The grip of the "fear" zone is strong.



GOLD
Spinning top day (possible bullish harami). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (1714.40). Still below SMA(21,55,89). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1639.80). Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Still failing its 61.8% minor retrace (1.3596). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3707).



JNK
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(55). Tested and held (barely) its 38.2% retrace (37.62). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.51).



10YR YIELD
Spinning top day. Tested and failed SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing its 38.2% minor retrace (21.37). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 22.32).



WTI
Spinning top day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its 50.0% retrace (97.35). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 97.79). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal down.



SILVER
Bullish short day. Failing SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 38.2% minor retrace (31.85). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 36.58).



BKX
Spinning top day (possible bullish harami). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing SMA(55). Tested and held its 50.0% minor retrace (37.51). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 36.51).



HYG/LQD
Bearish short day. Tested and held SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above its 61.8% minor retrace (0.7643). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7966).



USDJPY
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(55). Failing its 61.8% minor retrace (77.497). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 75.70).



EEM
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Still failing its 38.2% retrace (40.13). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 42.80).

IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.

Morning Corner 11.18.11

FT MIB (weekly info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=up (2 bars)
high= 16553.55
rev= 13664.91; mid= 15159.23

Amazingly Italy's index seems to be holding up (for now). It's still below all SMA's. It's below the monthly 3LB mid. It's below the 38.2% minor retrace. Go figure.



ATHEN (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=down
low= 744.37
rev= 880.08; mid= 812.23


Greece is itching to break to new lows. It's testing its 0.0% retrace. It's below all SMA's. It's making another new weekly low. I don't think the next tranche is going to help that much.



IBEX (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=up
high= 9224.40
rev= 8141.90; mid= 8683.15


Spain has turned down (kind of obvious if you watch their bond yields). It's now below all SMA's. it's testing its 50.0% minor retrace. It's below the weekly 3LB mid. The MACD appears ready to break below zero.