Morning Corner 1.19.11

2s30s Spread (weekly info)
WEEKLY REVERSAL new high 3.91
trend=no
direction=up (1 bar)
rev= 3.64; mid= 3.78



Thought taking a look at this spread was needed since it has been gaining attention. The weekly chart upper shadows seem to indicate fear of 4.00. The 14.6% retrace at 3.84 appears to be the line in the sand (for now). There seems to be a break of the first trend line so support comes in at the next trend line (3.70). Probably needs a solid break of SMA(21) before that happens.



AAPL (weekly info)
new high 348.48
trend=up
high= 348.48
rev= 320.61; mid= 334.55



Fear after the announcement about Jobs' health followed by the JBTFD crowd and then followed by an earnings beat. Can it continue to push higher. Probably (think about the Verizon subs coming soon). Will the next iPad crush the other tablet competitors? Again probably. Does any of this matter in the grand scheme of things? No.


And just for kicks…

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: Munis, IBM and AAPL will not defeat me. I will fight on. "My head is bloody but unbowed."

SPX
Spinning top day (start of evening star?). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1276.56). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Held the 23.6% retrace (78.72). Still below SMA(144), SMA(21) & SMA(55). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 81.01).



VIX
Homing pigeon day (needs confirmation). Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 17.75). Stuck in the "no fear" zone. Still has a monthly 3LB reversal.



GOLD
Spinning top day. Still below SMA(55) & held SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). 0.0% retrace holding. Still below the 23.6% retrace (1368.14). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1387.00). Must have the precious.



EURUSD
High wave doji day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Held its 38.2% retrace at 1.3121. Still above SMA(21) & SMA(144). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3395). Above the weekly 3LB reversal price (1.3364).



JNK
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Failed to hold SMA(55). Still can't close gap post dividends. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.47).



10YR YIELD
Bullish long day. The 23.6% retrace at 32.75 was tested and held. Back above SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 32.36). Back above upper trendline.



DJ TRANS AVG
Spinning top day. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 5178.45).





CRB
Doji day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. No test of new 0.0% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 323.94).





XLF
Bearish harami day (needs confirmation). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. No test of new 0.0% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 16.30).



IQI
Bullish piercing day (needs confirmation). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. Held new 0.0% retrace (11.15). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 12.30).



MUB
Bullish engulfing day (needs confirmation). Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. Back above 14.6% retrace (97.24). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 99.96).

LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Bond Report 1.18.11

What began as a rout in the long end moderated by the close. The long bond was off by 2-3 bps in the end. The big news was a rally, perhaps aided by a squeeze in munis. Nice, nice trading, Colin.

Corpies: LQD -0.06%; AGG -0.07%; JNK 0.05%; HYG -0.01%
Govies: TLT -0.46%; IEI -0.16%; TIP 0.02%
Munis: IQI 2.07%; MUB 1.15%
Mortgages: MBB 0.08%
Hedgies: TBT 0.93%

We did nothing in the end. We are now looking ahead tactically to Thursday's claims number. We would fade any strong selling in Ts after that number. It will be interesting to see the next move in munis from here.

Morning Corner 1.18.11

10YR NOTE
-no change (below mid)
trend=down
low= 119.594
rev= 123.578; mid= 121.586



The 10yr note has held its 50% retrace for the past month. Has it bottomed? The lows have held the SMA(55). Is that the level if broken that will initiate QE3?



MUB
new low 96.26
trend=down
low= 96.26
rev= 101.61; mid= 98.94



And I thought IQI was having a bad day.


IYR
-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
rev= 57.62; mid= 55.68



Running out of steam as it continues to get rejected at its 50% retrace. Considering that home prices are still on the decline what is holding it up? 10yr and 30yr yields are still moving higher and foreclosures are being held up (for good reason). Por favor explique.

Martin Luther King Day Post

Now, THIS man had something to say....

It's probably worth seeing all 17 minutes again, in case you've never seen it before.

Some "Money" quotes:

In the process of gaining our rightful place we must not be guilty of wrongful deeds. Let us not seek to satisfy our thirst for freedom by drinking from the cup of bitterness and hatred.

I have a dream that one day this nation will rise up and live out the true meaning of its creed: "We hold these truths to be self-evident: that all men are created equal."

And when this happens, when we allow freedom to ring, when we let it ring from every village and every hamlet, from every state and every city, we will be able to speed up that day when all of God's children, black men and white men, Jews and Gentiles, Protestants and Catholics, will be able to join hands and sing in the words of the old Negro spiritual, "Free at last! free at last! thank God Almighty, we are free at last!"

~~~~~~~~~~

Such a speech and message makes the following weekly offering seem a bit a miniscule in comparison; but, here it is anyway....

Excerpts:

• We got spanked lost week on our DXY "toe dipping." Fortunately, we're disciplined traders who attempt to "plan the trade and trade the plan." We only ended up losing 0.5% on what was a very large trade. No more "toe dipping" in the DXY until the pattern becomes clearer.

• No trades in the S&P 500 last week as the market failed to display any sign of peaking. We've raised our "sell stop" level to 1260-- a break of this level will force us to initiate shorts.

• Gold looks punk-- First and second levels of resistance in the week ahead are $1,378 and $1,393. This market looks headed for the $1,320's in the near term.

• Energy is carving out "rising wedge" patterns into various longer term resistance levels.

Market Discussion 17 Jan 11

~~~~~~

Last week, this Blog's Author, Chet Vienne, decided to "retire" from blogging.

For what it's worth, I'll continue to post a technical update on the weekends here and on Scribd. I like the "weekend reflection" as it forces me to be rigorous in the week ahead. On top of that, I like following all the various good comments and links here as well AmenRa's sweet Dailies.

I'll probably keep posting a weekend "thing" here regardless of whether or not there are many site visitors--it's a good forum for back and forth commenting.

Hope everyone has a good week ahead!

It's been fun...

Y'all keep the party going... (CV)

"THE FED" - Is NOT "the Bernank"

(Note: Real ramp - above 100 - occurred post breakdown of Bretton Woods)

http://www.helsinki.fi/iehc2006/papers1/Roberts.pdf