AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

Creditcane™: I'm having so much fun destroying the bulls and the bears this week.

SPX
Shooting star day (hair is at least 2x the body and it gapped higher). Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above the trendiness (3/6/09-7/1//10) and (2/5/10-5/6/10). Above the SMA(21), SMA(55), SMA(89). Tested and failed 1110.02 (the .09 fibo from high). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1051.87). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bearish short day. Still below the SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still wants to head for its 50% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 82.92).



VIX
Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. Still below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.45). Trending down on daily 3LB.



GOLD
Bearish long day (confirmed bearish harami). Or was there a massive margin call somewhere? Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Was heading towards the 0% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1239.90).



EURUSD
Spinning top day again. Midpoint below EMA(10). Held the 23.6% retrace. Still below the 4x1 Gann and the SMA(21). It's above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal now 1.2878).



JNK
Bullish short day. Finally closed the gap. Above the SMA(21), SMA(89) & SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.72).



10YR YIELD
Bullish long day. The new 0.0% fibo retrace at 24.69 is holding. Closed above the 14.6% retrace (26.94) and weekly 3LB mid (27.60). Midpoint above EMA(10). Above the SMA(21). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 24.77).



AUDJPY
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 78.0554).




TLT
Bearish long day. Back below the SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Almost at gap support (102.45). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 106.00). Trending down on the daily 3LB.



DJ TRANS AVG
Bearish thrusting day. Still above the upper trendline and all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 4283.41). Trending up on the daily 3LB.

Morning Audibles 9.9.10 - Are you READY?

The BREAD & CIRCUSES start tonight my friends...


My apologies, in advance, for any kind of random journey this thread may take, but publishing "original material" often means the author enters a sort of dreamlike state... You know how it happens in your dreams at night... These thoughts and clips kind of assemble themselves in some way that one could NEVER predict if they happened to be awake and/or conscious... The OUTPUT thereof, may end up being "Stanley Kubrick-ish", but that's the world I live in...


I suppose the CONTRARY to that would be a state of mind where NO ORIGINAL THOUGHTS existed... That "being-ness" happened to manifest itself as an OUTPUT of the random creative ideas of OTHERS... Those widgets were then "intercepted" and "programmed" into some kind of networked database by foolish & mindless drones (kinda like a blog, I suppose)... The final product ends up woven into something that only machines or sub-humans could understand... (those foolish mindless drones are CUTE & CUDDLY tho, aren't they?)...


That's the world that CV doesn't live in... (or DOES, but rebels against)...


BACK TO THE CIRCUSES... 

The "Modern Day Version" = THE NFL

Tonight is the "kickoff" spectacular... WORLD CHAMPION SAINTS vs. MINNESOTA VIKINGS (kind of a "WAAAAAAHHHHnabee" team [emphasis on "WAAAAAAAHHHHH"], that can never seem to get it totally together because of their propensity to COMPROMISE)... I'm leaving my GAME ANALYSIS out of the thread topic... It'll be found in the comment section... Instead, I'm going to focus on the peripherals...

SOCIO-ECONOMICS

Since "bread & circuses" alone no longer satiate the masses, the networks have taken to airing a PRE-GAME concert to add to the hype... One can think what they will about these PRE-GAME antics, but I assure you that they're NO DIFFERENT from the types of things that were presented II MILLENIA [or, MM] ago, in Rome, in the Colosseum... I know... I was there (as sure as "Lucius Aurelius Commodus" was emperor)...

OK... So about these PRE-GAME concerts... Let's just imagine for a minute that they ARE actually cool... I can go there with you if you want... Not TOTALLY... But I'll try... This year, I've heard, it's going to feature THE DAVE MATTHEWS BAND & TAYLOR SWIFT (more on that in a minute)... Last year, it featured THE BLACK EYED PEAS (who, CV has kind of a personal war against)... Actually - I'll admit that some of their songs are kind of "catchy", but I don't like the "message" they bring (in aggregate)... Witness for yourself the 2009 SOCIOECONOMIC version of BREAD & CIRCUSES...

Various Black Eyed Peas Lyrics: 

(sound familiar on Wall St., or in the ghettos, or in the voting booths across America)?

"We got five minutes for us to disconnect, from all intellect collect the rhythm effect..."

"Tonight’s the night night

Let’s live it up

I got my money

Let’s spend it up"

"Lets paint the town (paint the town)

We’ll shut it down (shut it down)

Lets burn the roof

and then we’ll do it again"

"Easy come

easy go

now we on top 

top top top top"

"we keep keep keep keep going up

we know what we say say

party everyday 

p-p-p-party everyday"

OK fine, thanks for telling me that (consider me informed)... It's obviously really helped me become a better person (thank you for that)... You've really given me HOPE... & CHANGED the world with that message...


Now we get to 2010... THE DAVE MATTHEWS BAND... First, TAYLOR SWIFT... I have to admit that CV has never heard of Taylor Swift, but here's a foto of her... 

All I can say is that I immediately approve simply due to the fact that she doesn't appear to be driving that car with a cell phone wrapped around her ear... At least it's a START!

DAVE MATTHEWS

Actually (damn I've lived a weird life)... CV has never met Dave Matthews, but my sister dated him in a clandestine way back in the beginning of time... She started up, and owned a travel agency in Charlottesville, VA back in the day, and they met just about the time the band got going, and had to start making travel plans for gigs... Of course it was just "one of those things", so it let loose shortly thereafter... My sister is somewhat of a Sheryl Crow "lookalike", so some of that might make sense to a random reader...

Anyway... Me (CV), thinking of Dave Matthews, and thinking of SOCIO-ECONOMICS, made me think of this... Last year, the misplaced "optimism", that was abundant in America, produced the performance of "Let's Get It Started" & "I Got a Feeling" by the BEP's... Fast Forward 2010... What will Dave Matthews play?

Could it be?

CRASH

(He actually penned this song when he & my sister were, you know... So who knows? Strange...)

Oops, Cv doesn't want to be NEGATIVE "market wise"... I'll be my best American citizen here, and suggest that everyone invest in equities, you know, FOR THE LONG RUN... Maybe things won't quite be so bad (due to all that lever pulling and button pushing that the GENIUSES who have 100% control over tend to do in the PRE-ELECTION period [in order to assuage wannabe blog authors into focusing on parades, dog grooming festivals, bathroom remodeling projects, & vacation itineraries]... Anything... PLEASE... Just save me from the effort involved in coming up with original thoughts... If successful, the mammoth efforts by TPTB, largely due to the GULLIBLE nature of the Romans at large, if they're lucky, may have the net effect of producing...

THE SPACE BETWEEN

(Meaning: a long period of NOTHINGNESS)

"The space between the tears we cry

Is the laughter keeps us coming back for more

The space between the wicked lies we tell

And hope to keep safe from the pain"

"Look at us spinning out in the madness of a roller coaster

You know you went off like the Devil in a church

In the middle of a crowded room

All we can do, my love is hope we don't take this ship down"

"The space between what's wrong and right

Is where you'll find me hiding, waiting for you

The space between your heart and mine

Is the space we'll fill with time"

Don't come to me for any answers... I just work here (and try to dredge up original thoughts from time to time)...


I don't have much else to say here... The markets are confused... The ECONOMY isn't all that confused, but that's beside the point in a STAR TREK gladiator world, right?

All I can say is... "Enjoy your profits & losses"... "Enjoy your bread & circuses"... AND... Otherwise... Since CV needs his own personal BREAD & CIRCUSES too...

ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL!

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

Creditcane™: Who wants to be my sparring partner? Your job will be to stand there and get hit (continuously).

SPX
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above the trendiness (3/6/09-7/1//10) and (2/5/10-5/6/10). Above the SMA(21), SMA(55) and the SMA(89). Pushing towards 1110.02 (the .09 fibo from high). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1051.87). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bearish short day. Back below the SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Wants to head for its 50% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 82.92).



VIX
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. Still below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.45). Trending down on daily 3LB.



GOLD
Bearish harami day (needs confirmation). Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still heading towards the 0% (it's coming). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1239.90).



EURUSD
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Held the 23.6% retrace. Back below the 4x1 Gann and the SMA(21). It's above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal now 1.2878).



JNK
Spinning top day (Risk on, risk off. Again Danielsan). Still failing to close gap. Above the SMA(21), SMA(89) & SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.72).



10YR YIELD
Bullish short day. The new 0.0% fibo retrace at 24.69 is holding. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above the SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.77).



AUDJPY
Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Above the SMA(21), SMA(55), SMA(144) and SMA(89). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 75.8121).



TLT
Bearish short day. Back below the SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Above the gap (so it's support for now). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 108.42). Trending down on the daily 3LB.



DJ TRANS AVG
Bullish long day. Still above the upper trendline and all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 4283.41). Trending up on the daily 3LB.

Morning Audibles 9.8.10

Let me re-work an old expression from Cramer...

"There's always a bull market somewhere, & I'm here to find it for you"... 

Jim Cramer

On a day like yesterday (and hopefully not today too), I might rework that phrase to something like...

"Sometimes there's a DULL market everywhere, and I can't help avoiding it with you"

CV

Tell me something, during an entire day of trading, and on the first day back after a long holiday weekend, after a long summer, the following are an array of TWEETS which came DIRECTLY from the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (the largest open outcry futures market in any city in the galaxy not named Mos Eisley)... Or was that, the largest "wretched hive of scum & villainy"?... I might be mixing metaphors here...

@mrtopstep # futures DEAD HERE 20 locals in the pit NY lunch time no flow at ALL

September 7, 2010 12:41 PM 

http://mrtopstep.com/2010/09/07/mrtopstep-back-to-work-in-september-but-not-many-seem-to-be-back/

September 7, 2010 2:25 PM 

gathered from topstep that Tim is looking for spx sub 1000 before going higher..

themosmitsos

[3/3] Now the technical team of this crew is looking for "new lows <1000 before new highs >1127" keep in mind. Traders & Techs disagree

September 7, 2010 3:09 PM 

Here's an actual trade idea...

On Tuesday 7th September 2010, @mrtopstep said:

RT @Eubiquitous SPX FUT #1090.20# was 9/03 highs...decent area to cover TLT highs SPY LOWS..this reminds me of the US. DOL trade..have to break the "PAIR"..

September 7, 2010 3:21 PM 

Apart from what was going on in the Chicago Merc pits, there was this & this... (within 2 minutes)

- "I can see a move right back to the 1040-1050 area. It's a range bound market until further notice."

- "smells a year end rally, based on a QE2 and extended tax cuts, among other pre-election weaselry."

Which must have been in response to this... (or perhaps penned by the same author)...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/39037896

LOL!! "The disparity in the numbers could either mean the market is due for a correction or the recent stock rally will keep going, analysts say."

September 7, 2010 12:25 PM 

"I want everyone to know that I was FOR the rally before I was AGAINST it... OMG... I'm in a LURCH here"...

Anyway people... Hopefully things won't stay this way for very much longer... They're in full swing at Flushing Meadows... Tennis Anyone?

OR... If you've GIVEN UP completely, there's always football to entertain you while you sing yourself to sleep...

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

Creditcane™: I'm debating on whether or not to wait for everyone to return from vacation.

SPX
Bearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above the trendline (3/6/09-7/1//10) but below (2/5/10-5/6/10). Above the SMA(21), SMA(55) but back below the SMA(89). Pushing towards 1110.02 (the .09 fibo from high). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1051.87). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish short day. Back above the SMA(21). Midpoint at EMA(10). Was heading for its 50% retrace (still might). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 82.92).



VIX
Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. Still below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.45). Trending down on daily 3LB.



GOLD
Bullish long day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still heading towards the 0% (it's coming). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1239.90).



EURUSD
Bearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Held the 23.6% retrace. Back below the 4x1 Gann and the SMA(21). It's above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal now 1.2878).



JNK
Doji day (not much movement for a risk off day). Still failing to close gap. Above the SMA(21), SMA(89) & SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.72).



10YR YIELD
Bearish short day. The new 0.0% fibo retrace at 24.69 is holding. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back below the SMA(21). Closed the gap from Fridays open. No daily 3LB changes (reversal now 24.77).



AUDJPY
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above SMA(21), SMA(55), SMA(144) but below the SMA(89). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 75.8121).



DJ TRANS AVG
Bearish short day. Still above the upper trendline and all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 4160.79). Trending up on the daily 3LB.



YEN (FXY)
Bearish short day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed the 0.0% retrace. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 115.99).

LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Bond Report 9.7.10

Today was a day where if you had gone long USTs on Friday, then you are the sh*t, or as LB would say, THE DOG'S BOLLOCKS.

Ts and IG outperformed HY today, and it was a big hard flattener, as a lukewarm auction of 3y kept buyers out at the long end, and even TIPS were well bid. Overall today was a lot more HUGH HENDRY than JULIAN ROBERTSON.

Corpies: LQD 0.75%; AGG 0.29%; JNK 0.08%; HYG -0.15%;
Govies: TLT 2.05%; IEI 0.40%; TIP 0.56%
Hedgies: TBT -3.94%

We did nothing. We are waiting for a H&S to form on TLT and then we will play the long bonds from the short side. We own AGG, LQD, HYG and JNK. No Treasuries. We think fixed income will be strong all week, including Ts as we see a 10y and 30y auction ahead of us.