Morning Corner 8.24.11

RBS (weekly info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
low= 6.81
rev= 11.31; mid= 9.06

RBS broke below its 61.8% retrace (8.38) last week. It's below all SMA's. It's trending down on the weekly 3LB. It has been trending down on the monthy 3LB since Jan 2008. So it never had a recovery.



GOLD (weekly info)
new high 1852.20
trend=up
high= 1852.20
rev= 1631.20; mid= 1741.70


Even though the Shanghai Gold Exchange hiked margins gold is still trying to make a new weekly high (for now). Currently the weekly chart is forming an evening star (reversal). It's still above all SMA's. It's well above (6.27%) the weekly 3LB mid. It appears even margin hikes have half lives.



BAC (weekly info)
new low 6.97
trend=down
low= 6.97
rev= 9.71; mid= 8.34


BAC has fallen and it can't get up. It's below its 61.8% retrace (7.83) and testing its 38.2% minor retrace (6.06). It's below all SMA's. The gap on the weekly chart is going to provide major resistance. It may need to send out the bat signal (JPM) soon.

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: Today felt like an unwanted colon cleasning.

SPX
Bullish long day (also a closing marubozu). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. Tested and held the 38.2% minor retrace (1122.84). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1254.05). QE2infinity. Still below daily, weekly & monthly 3LB mids.



DXY
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (73.51). Failing the 38.2% minor retrace (74.40). Still below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 75.75).



VIX
Bearish long day (still didn't close gap). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Failing its 0.0% retrace (45.40). Tested and failed its 61.8% minor retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 25.25). Can't escape the "extreme fear" zone.



GOLD
Bearish engulfing day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed its new 0.0% retrace (1881.40). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1793.80). Must have the precious.



EURCHF
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 61.8%% retrace (1.1078). Holding SMA(21). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.1055). This tight range would make me nervous.



JNK
Bullish piercing day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing all SMA's. Still failing its 38.2% retrace (38.07). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.59).



10YR YIELD
Hammer day (failed to close gap). Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 0.0% retrace (20.92). Still below the upper trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 21.82).



WTI
Bullish long day. Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (80.32). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 92.08).



SILVER
Bearish engulfing day. Trading above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 38.2% retrace (40.69). Tested and failed its 61.8% minor retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.89).



BKX
Bullish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and held its 0.0% retrace (36.25). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 36.99).



HYG/LQD
Bullish long day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of its 0.0% retrace (0.7427). Tested and held its 61.8% minor retrace (0.7682). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7910).



USDJPY
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (76.561). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 77.03).

IT HAS BEGUN. BE WARNED.

Morning Corner 8.23.11

Credit Suisse (weekly info)
new low 26.19
trend=down
low= 26.19
rev= 35.94; mid= 31.07


Poor Credit Suisse breaking below its 38.2% minor retrace (27.05) and opening the door for a test of the 0.0% retrace (18.90). It's below all SMA's. It had a monthly 3LB reversal down in July. It's still trending down on the weekly 3LB.



UBS (weekly info)
new low 13.31
trend=down
low= 13.31
rev= 16.80; mid= 15.06


UBS is not the picture of health either. It's below its 38.2% minor retrace (14.83). It's below all SMA's. But it hasn't had a monthly 3LB reversal yet. That'll happen if it closes 4.5% lower.


Gold/Oil Ratio (weekly info)
new high 22.29
trend=up
high= 22.29
rev= 17.02; mid= 19.66

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

"Let's get ready to rumble!!!"

Creditcane™: Start counting the seconds after hearing the thunder to know when I'll arrive.

SPX
Gravestone doji day (reversal coming? probably not). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. Tested and held the 38.2% minor retrace (1122.84). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1254.05). QE2infinity. Still below daily, weekly & monthly 3LB mids.



DXY
Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (73.51). Failing the 38.2% minor retrace (74.40). Still below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 75.75).



VIX
Bullish long day (yet confirmed hanging man - head fake?). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Failing its 0.0% retrace (45.40). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 25.25). Can't escape the "extreme fear" zone.



GOLD
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its new 0.0% retrace (1881.40). Still above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1793.80). Must have the precious.



EURCHF
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 61.8%% retrace (1.1078). Holding SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.1266). The last six days don't look that bullish.



JNK
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace (38.07). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.59).



10YR YIELD
Bearish short day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing its 0.0% retrace (20.92). Still below the upper trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 21.82).



WTI
Bullish long day (completed morning star). Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (80.32). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 92.08).



SILVER
Bullish short day. Trading above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 38.2% retrace (40.69). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 37.89).



BKX
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (36.25). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 36.99).



HYG/LQD
Bearish short day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of its 0.0% retrace (0.7427). Tested and failed its 38.2% minor retrace (0.7585). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7910).



USDJPY
Spinning top day (didn't confirm hammer). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (76.561). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 77.03).



GS
Bearish long day. Below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (110.04). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 125.18).

IT HAS BEGUN. BE WARNED.

Late Sunday/Week Ahead Post: Going Back to School Edition

School is back in session "in these parts."  Even though, according to some liberal/socialist bloggers, Texas has a horrible school system, my kids are still excited about the first day of school anyway.

Even with the excitement and the fact that my girls go to a "well-regarded" district, it seems like some aspects of the education system is LONG overdue for a COMPLETE overhaul.

Which brings me to this excellent TED video on Math and School.  This guy is SPOT ON.

Math does not equal Calculating.
Math is greater than Calculating.

I've witnessed this phenomenon first hand now.  I've seen my oldest daughter absolutely struggle through "calculating" homework answers for Algebra to which a computer/hand calculator could easily solve.  It's silly.

The problem with this idea will be apparent to anyone who is paying attention.  For teachers, it's WAY easier to teach "calculations" than it is to teach "MATH."

Please give this video some time....




As for the markets, I came up with these ideas and charts for Gold and S&P 500. Good Luck in the week ahead:
Market Commentary 21AUG11