AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: I have been to the mountaintop. You don't want to know what's on the other side.

SPX
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Made a new 0.0% retrace (1349.55). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1314.16). QE2infinity. "JBTFD. Don't question it. Just do it. Trust me."



DXY
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held 0.0% retrace (73.74). Below all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 74.37).



VIX
Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 16.27). Deep in the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Bearish short day (long tail means bulls fought back). Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace. Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1495.10). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Hanging man day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed the 85.4% retrace (1.4640). Still above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.4497).



JNK
Bullish short day (dark cloud cover lifted). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Still above its 85.4% retrace (40.60). Still below lower trend line. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 40.56).



10YR YIELD
Bearish long day. No test of 0.0% retrace at 37.44. Still below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing the 38.2% retrace (33.71). Held the upper trend line. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 34.10).



WTI
Doji day again. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace. No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 113.38). Still above weekly 3LB mid (108.61).



SILVER
Bearish long day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (49.78). Holding upper trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 43.91).



TLT
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above SMA(21). Tested and held the 23.6% retrace (93.14). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 89.68).



HYG/LQD
Bearish long day. Still below the 61.8% retrace (0.845). Tested and failed SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.850).


AT's Glimpse at WTI Oil:

Morning Corner 4.26.11

DXY (weekly info)
new low 74.11
trend=down
low= 74.11
rev= 75.72; mid= 74.92


DXY is doing all it can to avoid taking out last weeks low. Probably can hold the low until BB's press conference. It's getting to the point that no matter what BB says the DXY will continue to move lower. NO QE3 then DXY falls to prop up the market. More QE3 then DXY falls because of dollar debasement. Win -win.



90 Day UST (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=down
low= 0.040
rev= 0.160; mid= 0.100


Doesn't look like traders believe the Fed will be raising rates at this weeks meeting.



2s-30s Spread (weekly info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=up (2 bars)
high= 4.01
rev= 3.53; mid= 3.77

This spread has been trading sideways for a few weeks now. It has been making higher lows. It also has been able to get back above its weekly 3LB mid. It has a declining wedge look to it where the apex the very near.

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: Much have eaten too many chocolate bunnies this weekend.

SPX
Hanging man day (also bearish harami). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Above the 14.6% retrace (1319.09). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1305.14). QE2infinity. "JBTFD. Don't question it. Just do it. Trust me."



DXY
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.% retrace (73.74). Below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 75.50).




VIX
Spinning top day (confirmed harami). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 16.27). Deep in the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace. Still above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1495.10). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above 1.4374 (the 76.4% retrace). Still above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.4466).



JNK
Dark cloud cover day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Still above its 85.4% retrace (40.60). Still below lower trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.46).



10YR YIELD
Bearish short day. No test of 0.0% retrace at 37.44. Still below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed 38.2% retrace (33.71). Held the upper trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 34.66).



WTI
Doji day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace. No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 113.38). Still above weekly 3LB mid (108.61).



SILVER
Spinning top day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace. Holding upper trend line. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 43.91).



BKX
Doji day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(144). No test of its 50.0% retrace (50.11). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 51.66).




AT's Glimpse at June SP Futures:

And Some Silver....

Morning Corner 4.25.11

Gold/Silver Ratio (weekly info)
new low 32.647
trend=down
low= 32.647
rev= 37.864; mid= 35.256


This ratio is rapidly approaching its old ratio of 16:1. This week started with a gap down. Silver will continue to outpace gold until someone cries "Uncle" or "No mas".



EWZ (weekly info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=up
high= 79.63
rev= 75.27; mid= 77.45


Last week was a rejection of the evening star candle formation as it refused to confirm the setup. It has pushed back over the lower trend line. The rising wedge looks like a break to the upside is coming.



SKEW (daily info)
new high 131.78
trend=up
high= 131.78
rev= 119.26; mid= 125.52


Skew made another daily higher close and is now trending up on the daily 3LB. Does this mean that the buying of OOM options are increasing? Does "Sell in May" start a week early? Fear of China threatening to unload foreign reserves (again)? Also since the VIX chart had another weekly low should there be that much complacency when so much is going on?

Sunday Evening Post: S&P 500

Hello All,

This update is really only focused on the S&P 500, which had an outstanding performance last week.  The bottom line is that this market is once again knocking on the door of the previous highs.  That is not a sign of a market that is "peaking" at all.  Markets that have peaked have no business going back to its previous highs.  It seems like a higher probability event that we will take out 1344 sometime this week.  The wave count, though, suggests that if we do break to new highs this week, it will likely be a "bull trap" as there is a zone of technical resistance between 1367 and 1380.

So, if one plans on "buying the break" to play the momentum up, just stay nimble.

SP500 Update 24Apr11



Addendum:

I caught this interesting interview on "disrupting" the educational system.  It's a subject near and dear to my heart.  What was most fascinating, though, was that it was JEB BUSH spearheading the effort.



After listening to the interview, two things struck me:

1) George and Babs Bush are wishing Jeb had been just a little more experienced in 2000 as he would have burnished a much better legacy for the Bush Clan.  This guy has always seemed more competent and intelligent than his elder brother.

2) Jeb Bush would be the leading Republican candidate in 2012 if his name wasn't "Bush."

This fellow seems like a "Clear Thinker" to me.
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One of our readers, Jennifer, was wondering about the Silver Wave count, specifically what the labelling of the move lower was in 2008. Attached here is a chart I created in September '09 that highlighted that wave count. The move lower was not impulsive and the wave up was not impulsive either. It turns out Silver was probably in a massive, multi-year triangle, which is why all the various 'legs' were corrective and which is also why we saw such powerful move up once the triangle concluded August 2010.