AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: Well I took some steam out of that hot air balloon. It still wasn't enough. I have more work to do.

SPX
Doji day (not a good completion of a morning star). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1276.56). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed the 23.6% retrace (78.72). Below all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 79.28).



VIX
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and passed SMA(55). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 15.41). Stuck in the "no fear" zone. Currently does not have a monthly 3LB reversal.



GOLD
Spinning top day (start of morning star?). Still below SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). 0.0% retrace holding. Well below the 23.6% retrace (1368.14). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1385.80). Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Passed test of its 50.0% retrace at 1.3506. Now above SMA(89). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.3370). Had a weekly 3LB reversal up.



JNK
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above SMA(55). Still can't close gap post dividends. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.47).



10YR YIELD
Bearish short day (not really in an uptrend so no bearish harami). Held above the 14.6% retrace at 33.86. Still above SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 32.36). Holding above upper trend line.



DJ TRANS AVG
Bearish short day. Still below SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 5212.60). Also had a weekly 3LB reversal down.




CRB
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. No test of new 0.0% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 323.94).




XLF
Spinning top day (confirmed bullish harami…go figure). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Held the 14.6% retrace (16.41). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 16.72).



IQI
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above all SMA(21). Held new 0.0% retrace (11.15). Closed above 23.6% retrace (11.68). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 12.30). Old guard: Must prove MW wrong!!!!!!!!

Morning Corner 1.21.11

EEM (weekly info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
low= 44.80
rev= 48.49; mid= 46.65


This move in EEM seems to have petered out. When the weakness returns in the US will EEM be able to pick up the slack? Or will they lead the way?



* Maybe Meredith Whitney was right: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/21/business/economy/21bankruptcy.html?_r=3&src=busln

Path Is Sought for States to Escape Debt Burdens

Policy makers are working behind the scenes to come up with a way to let states declare bankruptcy and get out from under crushing debts, including the pensions they have promised to retired public workers.

Read more...


* The end is near (stock market, BB's & TG's job, muni bond holders, etc)...

SPY (60 min - 10 weeks)

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: I came. I saw. But I didn't stay. Maybe tomorrow.

SPX
Doji day (start of morning star?). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1276.56). QE2infinity.



DXY
Doji day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Held the 23.6% retrace (78.72). Still below SMA(144), SMA(21), SMA(55) and SMA(89). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 81.01).



VIX
Bullish short day (tail too long for shooting star). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested but failed SMA(55). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 15.41). Stuck in the "no fear" zone. Currently does not have a monthly 3LB reversal.



GOLD
Bearish long day. Now below SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). 0.0% retrace holding. Back below the 23.6% retrace (1368.14). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1387.00). Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Failed test of its 50.0% retrace at 1.3506. Still above SMA(55). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.2929). Above the weekly 3LB reversal price (1.3364).



JNK
Dragonfly doji day (refuses to go higher). Midpoint above EMA(10). Failed to hold SMA(55). Still can't close gap post dividends. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.47).



10YR YIELD
Bullish long day. The 14.6% retrace at 33.86 was tested and passed. Back above SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 32.36). Held above upper trend line.



XLF
Bullish short day (possible bullish harami). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Failed the 14.6% retrace (16.41). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 16.72).



IQI
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. Held new 0.0% retrace (11.15). Closed above 14.6% retrace (11.48). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 12.30).



MUB
Bearish short day (a hanging man already?). Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. Held the 14.6% retrace (97.24). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 99.96).



2s30s Spread
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 3.63).

LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Bond Report 1.20.11

After Matthew's description of the fixed income market above, further commentary from us would be superfluous....

Corpies: LQD -0.43%; AGG -0.38%; JNK 0.03%; HYG -0.20%
Govies: TLT -1.38%; IEI -0.44%; TIP -0.95%
Munis: IQI 3.10%; MUB -0.04%
Mortgages: MBB -0.26%
Hedgies: TBT 2.54%

We added 2% of TLT.

As of now we are HYG 17% LQD 3% AGG 10% TIP 5% TLT 4% (FI = 39%)
Equity longs are 14%, and we have a 3% widowmaker in play.

Morning Corner 1.20.11

BAC (weekly info)
new high 15.25
trend=up
high= 15.25
rev= 13.06; mid= 14.16



Not to promising having a bearish harami confirmation two days before earnings. Could it be a head fake? Will they reduce loan loss provisions? Will they come clean about defective MBS's? Will the MSM ever ask them the hard questions? Ignore the truth and BTFD?



Currency Comparison
% change of currencies and gold from January 2007 to present. Most currencies seem to have flatlined while gold continues higher.





As the Superbowl approaches sometimes you realize "It's good to have a ring"…

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight!

Creditcane™: Funny what a few double expressos can do for a Creditcane sighting.

SPX
Bearish long day (completed evening star). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1276.56). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed the 23.6% retrace (78.72). Still below SMA(144), SMA(21), SMA(55) and now SMA(89). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 81.01).



VIX
Bullish long day (confirmed homing pigeon). Midpoint at EMA(10). Back above SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 17.75). Stuck in the "no fear" zone. Still has a monthly 3LB reversal.



GOLD
Spinning top day. Still below SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). 0.0% retrace holding. Back above the 23.6% retrace (1368.14). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1387.00). Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bullish short day (resolved doji higher). Midpoint above EMA(10). Failed test of its 50.0% retrace at 1.3506. Back above SMA(55). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 1.2929). Above the weekly 3LB reversal price (1.3364).



JNK
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Failed to hold SMA(55). Still can't close gap post dividends. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.47).



10YR YIELD
Spinning top day. The 14.6% retrace at 33.86 was tested and failed. Back below SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 32.36). Held above upper trend line.



CRB
Bearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Made a new 0.0% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 323.94).



XLF
Bearish long day (confirmed bearish harami). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Failed the 14.6% retrace (16.41). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 16.72).



IQI
Bearish short day (failed bullish piercing confirmation). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. Held new 0.0% retrace (11.15). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 12.30).



MUB
Spinning top day (confirmed bullish engulfing). Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. Held the 14.6% retrace (97.24). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 99.96).



TLT
Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. Held lower trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 90.94).

LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Bond Report 1.19.11

The big market yawned today for the most part while the yappy little market was taking a downward excursion for the first time since the Dickensian era. (We know the ladies like Dickens).

Moves of note today were a modest flattener from yesterday's record 401 bps 2s30s spread in the YC and a move into safety in the muni market with MUB up and IQI down. Think of the muni spread widening and I think you can identify a trend. The MUB/IQI ratio is like the LQD/HYG ratio.

Corpies: LQD -0.07%; AGG 0.02%; JNK -0.15%; HYG -0.31%
Govies: TLT 0.72%; IEI 0.12%; TIP 0.04%
Munis: IQI -1.24%; MUB 0.16%
Mortgages: MBB 0.22%
Hedgies: TBT -1.38%

We did nothing in fixed income but were jolly amused by our equity hedging performance, and added a small widowmaker for fun.

Carry on, chaps.