AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: They only pay me enough to work mornings.

SPX
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Above 1110.02 (the .09 fibo from high) and above 1151.86 (the .0557 fibo from high). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1160.75). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below its 76.4% retrace at 77.60. Also below 78.41 (.0557 from low). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 77.75).



VIX
Bearish long day (morning star implosion). Midpoint below EMA(10). Below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 21.21). Still hanging out in the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Hanging man day. Way above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of new 0% retrace again. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1317.80).



EURUSD
Doji day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Held its 61.8% retrace at 1.3899. Above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3637).



JNK
Bearish short day. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Closed back below the 100% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.86).



10YR YIELD
Bullish long day (still struggling to close gap). The new 0.0% fibo retrace at 23.59 has held. Still below the weekly 3LB mid (27.60) and all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.56).



DJ TRANS AVG
Hanging man day (a fine example I might add). Holding above the upper trend line and all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 4576.47).



CRB
Bullish long day (evening star implosion). Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Tested and passed the Gann 1x1. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 289.15).



WTI
Spinning top day. Tested and failed the SMA(233). Midpoint above the EMA(10). Held the 50% retrace at 81.07. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 79.97).

LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Bond Report 10.12.10
- by Appointment to Her Majesty "QE2"

A quiet day. The 3y auction was indifferent, hardly a surprise at these low yields. 10y tomorrow, and a morning POMO. The long end sold off a bit today, something we will see more of in the future.

Corpies: LQD -0.15%; AGG -0.10%; JNK -0.10%; HYG -0.09%;
Govies: TLT -0.99%; IEI -0.18%; TIP -0.31%
Hedgies: TBT 2.15%

We had been short the long end, and we took the profits. Tomorrow is a POMO. After that, we may get short again, we'll see.

Morning Audibles 10.12.10

I was awake at about 4AM this morning and the futures were all the way down at 1152... I'd been waiting to use this song, if and when the market EVER went down (so it's basically been burning a hole in my computer hard drive)... I was starting to think we'd be on Windows 2025, or Mac OS 21 by the time it was ever needed...

Of course, now it's 9AM, and the stick saving algos, I see, have been hard at work the past 5 hours to assure you hard working Democrats, Capitalists, Obama Supporters, Americans, morons out there who pour every last cent of your hard earned, stolen, saved from not paying your mortgages money into risk assets (because you'd rather make money than be right)...

When are those elections? And who is this guy, and when is his "bitch" coming back?

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

Creditcane™: I'm still enjoying the long weekend. See you soon...

SPX
Doji day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above the trendlines (3/6/09-7/1//10), (2/5/10-5/6/10) & (4/26/10-8/9/10). Above all SMA's. Above 1110.02 (the .09 fibo from high) and above 1151.86 (the .0557 fibo from high). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1148.67). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish engulfing day (still would prefer candle to be larger). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below its 76.4% retrace at 77.60. Also below 78.41 (.0557 from low). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 78.09).



VIX
Bearish short day (morning star?). Midpoint below EMA(10). Below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 21.31). Gapped into the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Bullish short day. Way above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of new 0% retrace. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1317.80).



EURUSD
Bearish engulfing day (but todays candle should be larger). Midpoint above EMA(10). Failed to hold its 61.8% retrace at 1.3899. Above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3637).



JNK
Spinning top day (failed to confirm hanging man). Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Closed slightly above the 100% retrace. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 40.01).



EURJPY
Spinning top day. Back below SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace at 114.4666. Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 115.4114).



DJ TRANS AVG
Doji day. Holding above the upper trend line and all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 4576.47).




CRB
Spinning top day (evening star?). Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Tested and failed Gann 1x1. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 288.42).



SUGAR #11
Bullish short day. Above all SMA'. Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on day 3LB (reversal is 25.02). Now trading above monthly 3LB reversal price.

Monday Evening Post

Hello Capitalists,

This post is coming a day later than normal. Attached is just an update on the S&P 500. The song remains the same as last week: 1174 looks to be stiff resistance and I would be surprised if Mr. Market just "sliced" through there on the first go. We remain 50% Short and would will increase to 75% Short at 1170 (missed by a tick today). If we do get filled at 1170, then we will run an extraordinarily tight "stop" at 1175 on the new shorts--that's how important 1174 looks here. If 1175 does get violated, then we will hide under the desks, sucking our thumbs, wondering how it all went wrong. (ha)

The DXY appears to be finding support into that 77.28-77.69 zone identified last week, though there is nothing to write home about yet. There is nothing yet that suggests a "bottom" is in place. When there is, we will add to our 20% long position in the hated Greenback.

MNF Football Thought:

I'm surprised that the Jets are only favored by 4.5 tonight at home. They should have been favored by more. It makes me think that the Vikings will take this one, or keep it very close, as long as Brett Favre keeps it in his pants.

Market Update 11 Oct 10

Weekend Edition - Week 5 NFL & NCAA Picks

CV's PICKS - 2010 YTD Totals

2010 NCAA Picks: 14-8-1

2010 NCAA (unit picks differential): +7

NCAA 2010 Wager Total: (+$630)

NFL Picks (against the spread): 33-25-3

NFL (unit picks differential): +15

NFL 2010 Wager Total: (+$1,290)

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WEEK 5 NCAA PICKS (pick in BOLD CAPS)

Wyoming at TCU (-34.5) - 1 unit

Wyoming 0 - TCU 45 (correct +$100) 

Toledo at BOISE STATE (-39) - 1 unit

Toledo 14 - Boise State 59 (correct +$100) 

Additional games of note (no "unit" plays) - results" Green = correct/Red = incorrect: CV would favor: Notre Dame (push), Texas A&M, Kentucky, Wake Forest, Penn St.

Week 5 NCAA Results:

Week 5 NCAA Picks: 5-1-1

Week 5 unit pick differential: +2

Week 5 wager total: +$200

Note: CV is being very conservative this week... I've managed to cash positive in EVERY week thus far this season... The last 2 weeks have been especially good... So I'm dialing it down here (risk wise), while the ATS picking ratio comes back into line...

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 WEEK 5 NFL 

BYE WEEK: (New England, Miami, Pittsburgh, Seattle)

I'll offer some more detailed game write-ups as the weekend progresses... The bottom line is that I've been doing very well ATS (against the spread)... I'm overdue for a clunker, and I really don't see a lot of lines that offer much value... Here's a start...

EARLY GAMES

Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (1:00 EST)

Line: Ravens by 7

I'm siding with the BRONCOS for (0 units)... Old wagering "trend" in effect for this game...

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (1:00 EST)

Line: Jaguars by 1
Nobody circles the wagons like... The Buffalo BILLS for (2 units)... 

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (1:00 EST)

Line: Colts by 8

I think the Chiefs are a farce, but 8 points is a lot... CHIEFS for (0 units)...

Logos Lower - Blogger Sucks
St. Louis Rams at Detroit Lions (1:00 EST)

Line: Lions by 3

The Rams are a covering machine this year, and the Lions are coming off two tough losses... But betting "winless" teams often pays well... LIONS for (0 units)...

Atlanta Falcons at Cleveland Browns (1:00 EST)

Line: Falcons by 3
Falcons won a tough one at home last week... The risk is that they come out flat against an inferior team... But the Browns won too... BROWNS for (0 units)...

Tampa Bay Bucs at Cincinnati Bengals (1:00 EST)

Line: Bengals by 6.5

Tampa is coming off a BYE week... Bengals started to show some offense last week... BENGALS for (0 units) in a turnover fest...

Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers (1:00 EST)
Line: Bears by 2.5

The Bears may be looking to redeem themselves after an embarrassing loss on national TV... Julius Peppers going against his old squad... I'll take the BEARS for (1 unit)...

Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins (1:00 EST)

Line: Packers by 2.5

The Packers need to cut out the mistakes if they expect to become bonafide contenders, but they face a Washington team coming off an emotional victory... Neither team has their starting backfield in operation... PACKERS for (0 units)...

New York Football Giants at Houston Texans (1:00 EST)

Line: Texans by 3

If this comes out in BOLD FACE type so be it... Blogger sucks... I'll take the TEXANS here for (1 unit)... A 3 point line basically menas that these teams are identical... Last week, the Giants put Jay Cutler on the sidelines with 9 sacks (as I said teams would eventually do vs. a Mike Martz offense)... It won't matter here, Houston will run Arian Foster down their throat...

New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals (4:05 EST)

Line: Saints by 8

I'm going with the CARDINALS here for (1 unit)... The Saints haven't won a game by more than 3 points this year (against teams with a combines 1-10 record), and they're laying 8 points on the road to a team they met in the playoffs last year... I know the Cards will be starting rookie Max Hall here, but the line seems kind of ridiculous considering the Saints have really yet to get it in gear this year...

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (4:15 EST)

Line: Chargers by 6

The Chargers have beaten Oakland 13 straight times now... No reason to think it won't be different now, but Nnadi Asamogha can take away some of Phillip Rivers weapons... He can't take away Antonio Gates though, so I'll go with the Chargers to win, but the RAIDERS to cover for (0 units)...

Tennessee Flaming Thumbtacks at Dallas Cowboys (4:15 EST)

Line: Cowboys by 6.5

The Titans haven't shown much thus far... Chris Johnson, (as I told many at the beginning of the season), got too many carries last year, and is thus, much less effective this year... He got all those yards after the Titans started out winless in 6 games and everyone thought they were a joke... Now, every team stuffs 8 in the box to stop him... He'll get his breakaway runs, but it's much more of a crapshoot... it's especially tough when the Titans fall BEHIND in the score... I really have no idea how this game will turn out... In a strange way, I like the COWBOYS, coming off a bye week, and still needing a win, to cover (0 units)...

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers (8:20 EST)

Line: 49ers by 3.5

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Minnesota Vikings at New York Jets (8:35 EST)

Line: Jets by 4