Couldn't resist. Had to use the pic again.
Creditcane™: REPETERE AD INFINITUM: CAVEAT EMPTOR.
SPXBullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Still failing the 0.0% retrace (1563.32). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1544.26). QE2infinity. Still below 2 of 3 trend lines and RSI(14) above 50.
DXYBearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed the 38.2% minor retrace (82.46). Tested and held SMA(21). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 82.13).
VIXBullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(55). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (11.50). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 11.30).
GOLDBearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed its 61.8% retrace (1609.30). Holding above SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1615.50). Must have the precious.
EURUSDBullish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. Still failing its 38.2% retrace (1.3145). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3003).
JNKSpinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Holding above its 38.2% minor retrace (40.58). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 41.12).
10YR YIELDDoji day. Tested and failed SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 61.8% minor retrace (19.37). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 18.53).
WTIBullish long day. Tested and held SMA(21,89,144). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its 61.8% minor retrace (93.72). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 91.05).
SILVERBearish long day. Tested and failed SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing its 61.8% minor retrace (30.25). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 29.49).
BKXSpinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Still failing its 0.0% retrace (57.33). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 57.52).
HYG/LQDSpinning top day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace (0.7907). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7850).
COPPERBullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing all SMA's. Tested and held its 61.8% minor retrace (3.454). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 3.555).
AAPLBullish short day. Holding above SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still failing its 61.8% retrace (463.72). Still failing BB(2,200). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 420.05).
CCIBearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above SMA(21). Still failing its 38.2% retrace (557.71). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 556.38).
IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.
8 comments:
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/chris-martenson/stock-bond-market-crash-collapse-risk
re: Yields
"Again, these are record lows as in never-before-in-all-of-time records. To think that the Fed has all of this under control, that it can steer the consequences of an entire world of investment and speculation decisions to a normal and graceful ending, requires far more faith than I can muster.
The very idea that the worst-of-the-worst credit risks in the corporate world are now yielding less than 6% is even more absurd than anything that I observed during the height of the housing bubbles. Even the tiniest hiccup will wipe out the holders of those bonds, leaving them with, at best, pennies on the dollar."
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/michael-pettis/when-do-we-call-it-a-solvency-crisis
quote:
"In May 1987 Citibank, after many years of replenishing its capital, was able to announce suddenly and to the great surprise of the entire market that it had decided to take a huge amount of provisions against dodgy sovereign loans. By 1989-90 the rest of the big American banks were also able to accept the write-offs without becoming technically insolvent. That is when everybody formally “discovered” that in fact the LDC debt crisis was a lot more than just a liquidity crisis.
This is the key point. The American bankers weren’t stupid. They just could not formally acknowledge reality until they had built up sufficient capital through many years of high earnings – thanks in no small part to the help provided by the Fed in the form of distorted yield curves – to recognize the losses without becoming insolvent.
And this matters to Europe. There is simply no way European banks, especially in Germany, can acknowledge the possibility of sovereign insolvency until they, too, have built up enough capital to absorb the losses. They have, unfortunately, been painfully slow to do so, even with yield-curve help from the ECB, and so I suspect that this is going to remain a “liquidity” problem for many more years. While it does, the debt-burdened countries of peripheral Europe are going to suffer a decade of weak growth, high unemployment, and contentious politics, all the while the debt growing faster than the economy."
I'm a big fan of Michael Pettis.
Weekly 3LB Update 3/22/13
If I were a politician in Cyprus or on the Troika team that just put this deal together...I'd hire some bodyguards. Not all of the Russian money belongs to the mafia but some of it does. Just sayin'
Laiki back in Cyprus to be shuttered. 100% possible loss on uninsured depositors. Depositors under E100,000 2b transferred to Bank of Cyprus. The Bank of Cyprus depositors will lose around 40%. There will not be any vote in Parliament. It was designed to avoid that (esp since they voted it down the last time).
Oh yeah, I didn't read anything about bond holders taking haircuts.
New.
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