Damn option expiration and quarter end hijinks.
Creditcane™: Really?!?.
SPXBullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above all SMA's. Holding above the 0.0% retrace (1359.44). New high on daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1343.36). QE2infinity.
DXYBearish harami day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed the 38.2% minor retrace (80.33). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 79.87).
VIXSpinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Holding above its 100.0% retrace (14.27). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 20.79).
GOLDBullish harami day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 50.0% retrace (1649.30). Tested and held SMA(233). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1711.50). Back above monthly 3LB mid. Must have the precious.
EURUSDBullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(55). Tested and held its 38.2% minor retrace (1.3059). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3460).
JNKBearish short day (confirmed hanging man & harami). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(21). Tested and held its 38.2% minor retrace (39.62). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.88).
10YR YIELDBearish long day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed its 61.8% minor retrace (22.85). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 19.24).
WTISpinning top day. Tested and failed SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 38.2% minor retrace (105.44). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 109.77). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal down.
SILVERBullish thrusting day. Tested and held SMA(55,89). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 38.2% minor retrace (31.77). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.20).
BKXBullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Holding above its 61.8% retrace (46.14). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 45.01).
HYG/LQDHanging man day. Tested and held SMA(233). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed its 50.0% retrace (0.7942). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 0.7706).
EEMBullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(21). Holding above its 61.8% retrace (43.48). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 44.75).
AAPLBearish thrusting day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (594.72). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 533.16).
IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.
82 comments:
here is the link
http://comments.cftc.gov/publiccomments/viewcomment.aspx?id=57019
thanks for the charts again qqqq..interesting in the slowest global economy since the GD that food, energy and metals all rose since 2003
food, energy and metals all rose since 2003...
~~
would it be Correct to point out that those Prices rose in Nominal Terms(?), not, necessarily, Real Terms?
~~
also, does anyone else 'See' impending Weakness in that WTI Chart?
~~
and, again, AmenRa, nice Chartage/Wrappage~!
AAIP
AAIP
The administration was hoping to see more weakness in WTI by leaking info about releasing the SPR reserves. They quickly denies the rumor after WTI held strong.
Hope this doesn't upset some... AAPL touches $600 ... compares AAPL to Gold.
""would it be Correct to point out that those Prices rose in Nominal Terms(?), not, necessarily, Real Terms?""
I dunno, just plugged in the data from indexmundi.com, and I know it's not inflation adjusted.
@qqqq
Chavez, (or Germany or Switzerland for that matter), didn't ask for their iPads & iPhones to be returned to their vaults...
Hussein & Khadaffi weren't killed because they had iPad stocks (& old 'Newtons') lying around...
Fort Knox isn't full of Macs & Bernanke doesn't buy Apple shares (no wait ~ maybe he does I'd better hold off on that one)...
Apple's market cap is now bigger than the ENTIRE US Retail Sector & the ENTIRE semiconductor sector (working on becoming larger than BOTH COMBINED)... I posted some math on this blog about 6 weeks ago that at the present trajectory, AAPL "GDP" would exceed the entire GDP of all the countries in the entire planet by 2026 (and that's assuming the 2-3% growth trajectories that the G-7 countries themselves have been reporting ~ so if they fail to meet those targets, it would happen sooner)...
~~~~~
Yeah, I'm the lunatic for not being interested in AAPL stock (long or short)...
Speaking of Bernanke (& the money he does or doesn't counterFeit out of thin air to 'assist' asset prices [up or down])...
Here's a foto of him (the Atlantic magazine ~ April 2012)...
http://static7.businessinsider.com/image/4f608c2569bedd8e3700006a-900-/atlantic-april-2012-cover-ben-bernanke.png
So here's a chance for everybody to light a candle at the altar of their "HERO", who keeps the lights on in the casino for all to enjoy...
(from Wiki)
~~~~~
"Ownership
For all but recent decades, The Atlantic was known as a distinctively New England literary magazine (as opposed to Harper's and later The New Yorker, both from New York City). It achieved a national reputation and was important to the careers of many American writers and poets. By its third year, it was published by the famous Boston publishing house of Ticknor and Fields (later to become part of Houghton Mifflin). The magazine was purchased by its then editor, Ellery Sedgwick, during World War I, but remained in Boston.
In 1980, the magazine was acquired by Mortimer Zuckerman, property magnate and founder of Boston Properties, who became its Chairman. On September 27, 1999, ownership of the magazine was transferred from Zuckerman to David G. Bradley, owner of the Beltway news-focused National Journal Group. Bradley had promised that the magazine would stay in Boston for the foreseeable future, as it did for the next five and a half years.
In April 2005, however, the publishers announced that the editorial offices would be moved from its long-time home at 77 North Washington St. in Boston to join the company's advertising and circulation divisions in Washington, D.C.[8] Later in August, Bradley told the New York Observer, cost cutting from the move would amount to a minor $200,000–$300,000 and those savings would be swallowed by severance-related spending. The reason was to create a hub in Washington where the top minds from all of Bradley's publications could collaborate under the Atlantic Media Company umbrella. Few of the Boston staff agreed to relocate. Bradley embarked on an open search for a new editorial staff.[9]
Bradley, who has described himself as "a neocon guy" who came to regret his support for the Iraq invasion,[10] hired James Bennet as editor, who had been the Jerusalem bureau chief for The New York Times. He also hired writers including Jeffrey Goldberg and Andrew Sullivan.[10]"
@ben
Here ~ Thought you might like this ("socioeconomics")...
Record-seeking skydiver makes 13-mile test jump
http://news.yahoo.com/record-seeking-skydiver-makes-13-mile-test-jump-233204849.html
http://comments.cftc.gov/publiccomments/viewcomment.aspx?id=57019
Not sure if that letter to CFTC is real or not...
@ben
The thing you have to love about the record setting fall to earth attempt, (socio-economically speaking), is that the "daredevil" who is attempting to set the record, in reaching the upper stratosphere, is using...
wait for it... wait for it...
A balloon filled with hot air!
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAH!
you can't make this shit up!
AT,
I would have to go with NOT
I thought it was hilarious personally
CV,
I don't even really like going up stairs that don't have a back to them. That guy is crazy!
@ben
Article sez that when he does the real record setting jump... He'll attain a speed that will break the sound barrier & create a sonic boom...
Now... about that AAPL stock...
thats totally insane, a human creating a sonic boom......a few more steps CV and you know what.....jetpacks
;0)
I saw a show a few weeks ago about those people that fly around in those suits off the side of mountains....also insane, but certainly fun to watch
in any event, man always desires to move forward
As for AAPL.....what about it ?......anyone that didn't trade it has missed a monster run
thus, sour grapes all over the web
yeah its market cap is "huge"
hardly the first time something like this has happened with a stock
______________________________________
as an aside, sort of funny to see that Citi and BAC put forward about the same numbers in the stress test, one failed, one didn't
but thats misleading
@aaip
S has turned more bearish this week on the shorter time frames, getting interesting, daily trend still up
@ben
I want to be clear that I have nothing against anyone who wishes to take a "punt" (English expression for "wager") on a levitating stock price...
Clearly, anyone who bought AAPL stock in the past, and had the balls to hang on through all the uncertainty, has done well (well ~ that's assuming they can cash in the bet ticket in a timely manner, then realize something material from that gain ~ which is really a part of it that doesn't get determined until the bitter end)...
~~~~
My whole spiel is more closely aligned with traditional RISK-REWARD... (vis-a-vis: It's one thing to sit on the sidelines, point at AAPL, and say, "Look! Profits to be made! the system is working!"... It's quite another thing to have a great deal of ones accumulated wealth AT RISK in that adventure...
I saw a chart a few weeks ago which was AAPL stock aligned with a NASDAQ chart (whereby the timeframes & trajectories were matched in a way, & from a start date, that would basically mirror the "tech bubble" of the late 90's)...
I wish I could find it, but basically AAPL, where it stands now, has exceeded even that late 90's NASDAQ trajectory... & that's when the stock was still at $500...
It's been more than a decade since the NASDAQ bubble popped (& where is the NASDAQ today)?... And after how many more trillions in additional debt to be printed in an attempt to keep things afloat?
Chartists only look at "indices" levels to see the effects... But the 99%ers see something quite different...
- They see higher gasoline prices (even though driving is down)
- They see higher unemployment
- They see higher food prices (& more people on SNAP cards)
- They see higher costs to heat their homes
~~~~~
Luckily they have larger screen TV's to watch the NCAA Tournament on, & little boxes to walk around with to say "blah blah blah" to their 500 bff's on...
CV,
you shouldn't take what I'm about to say the wrong way: I don't believe you fully realize or understand what "chartists" look at, nor do most people. Part of the reason I believe markets are evolving as they are is because of the massive amount of technical tools home gamers have at their grasp, and they don't fully understand or properly monitor these tools. Up until about 20 months ago I was also using several of them incorrectly and even then sometimes I had positive results. I would refer to this group as the "default" group, and they are not expanding their knowledge outside basic textbook concepts that were introduced 60-70 years ago.
Next, your commentary about people having a significant portion of their capital at risk in AAPL, its a fair point but it misses some things it would seem. People's choices are not long only, or short only, or all in or all out. There are so many different ways one could go about protecting positions that there is no truth in saying that it all comes down to an unknown outcome "in the bitter end" For starters, there are these things called options, allow you to do all kinds of things if you want to make sure you don't lose your shirt.
Last, with regards to the extension of the nasdaq, from a wave theory perspetive the nasdaq was in an impulse wave in the 90's, AAPL is not perfectly aligned with that index, it is still impulsing to the upside....and, well, thats what happens in impulse waves
OH, and as for what the 99% "see"
perhaps they could understand markets a bit better if they stopped looking at the ECONOMY for the reasons why financial prices are what they are
you are correct in saying that a trader operating in markets would look at the market, rather than the economy, after all, thats what they are trading (markets)
unless you know of an unemployment ETF, or one that tracks SNAP usage
lucky for people like myself others are never going to stop doing that, and best yet, then they extrapolate the economic trends!
@AmenRa,
Somebody came up with a bear picture almost....and I do mean almost, as good as some of yours (see bottom of the thread)
http://evilspeculator.com/?p=27776
@ben
I understand perfectly what you're trying to say (11:08)...
Again... None of this stuff is black or white... We had the same discussion a few days ago (when I mentioned that I didn't mean to speak of things in 'absolutist' terms (or whatever similar term or definition I used)...
Most of the time, when I speak or write, I make a blatant attempt to veer in the 180 opposite direction of what I perceive to be the "daily diet" of propaganda that people usually get...
That's why I'm considered an extremist, or lunatic... Existentially ~ I'm a lot closer to the center than most of could possibly know (though it's difficult to see that in every day life because none of you have ever met me in person & have formulated your opinions mostly based on an aggregate stream of comments on an internet blog)...
I make a blatant attempt to veer in the 180 opposite direction of what I perceive to be the "daily diet" of propaganda that people usually get...
~~~
My "motivation" for doing so is that it's usually, at minimum, a "conversation starter"...
& I'm not much interested in talking about the weather (though I'm a sucker for most "sports talk")...
BTW ~
If anyone is interested in "trades"...
I bought another 30 "ASE's" today... I think I must have some "Judas Iscariot" bones or something because I end up buying them 30 pieces at a time...
I have NO IDEA whether the paper spot price will fall or rise immediately here... I've stated MANY TIMES that paper price is not much of a consideration for me (though I try to take advantage when possible)...
Once again (& I mentioned this last week)... There was a ration of 4-1 SELLERS (vs. buyers) in the coin shop... Peeps coming in to sell their silver dinnerware, gold jewelry, old coins, etc...
Frankly ~ the ratio could have been WORSE (because the number was predicated on the number of people actually in the store)... IOW ~ I was the ONLY one buying, the rest were sellers... I can't say if there weren't 10 more sellers or buyers who came in right after me (the "stock" of ASE's was down from last week though)...
~~~
Oh, & another thing... I'd TOTALLY forgotten that I even had this, but last August I'd bought BAC in an IRA account when it was dipping below $9... I remember saying back then that I thought it would go to $11...
Anyway, I guess it turned into a long term HOLD for me (which is why I'd forgotton about it)... Anyway ~ I looked at it today and it was finally in the green (so I dumped it)...
So I guess I'm an effin LIAR for saying I wasn't a "paper trader" all this time... Seriously though... I'd totally forgotten that I had that position open...
It was a crappy 240 shares anyway...
I'm seriously thinking about keeping that fiat as play confetti & going "balls out" on a make or break...
Way the fuck OOTM... "SLV" Jan 2013 options calls (I'm thinking $80-ish strike)...
You know... Just to put my fiat where my mouth is... I figure, one way or another, I'm going to EAT IT anyway... :-)
I wouldn't make the move until this May though...
"That's why I'm considered an extremist, or lunatic"
pretty sure nobody here has every claimed that you were any of those things based only on the information you are presenting
as has been said to you countless times, its the way you prefer to state your case that creates those labels and also, I'd gather a lot more people here are far more "center" than you've convinced yourself they are, this is not a mainstream blog.
to say nothing of the fact that the precious metals/hard asset cult delivers their own type of propaganda daily, lets not pretend its only happening with "paper"....that would not be true
and btw, thats hilarious you were holding on to BAC all this time
closet paper holder, I knew it.....lol
I had VCU yesterday, I didn't get the UNLV game right though....
Cincy is working Texas right now and unless my eyes are going bad...when did the Bearcats put pink into their uniforms?
@ben
"That's why I'm considered an extremist, or lunatic"
pretty sure nobody here has every claimed that you were any of those things
~~~
Forgive me then for not comprehending what people mean when they call me "self destructive" & suggest that I seek psychiatric help... (or ask me the question "are you OK?")...
As for the precious metals/hard asset class...
There have been people on this blog (for quite sometime), that have ridiculed the notions of "foaming at the mouth" hacks who claimed MANIPULATION in the PM markets...
Then you get this...
http://www.webcompact.net/index.php/news/20929-jpmorgan-whistleblower
I have no way of authenticating what's true or not... I just go by the old adage that THERE'S NEVER ONE COCKROACH...
I said (above)... That I'm going to let some of this "play out" for awhile... But on this WHISTLEBLOWER meme... I may just punt for a trade...
May 2012 is my deciding point on when to go for it or not...
@ben
BAC... True Story... I literally had completely forgotten about it (until something sparked the other day when they came out with those bank stress tests)... So I actually had to go into my former trading account (which I had CLOSED, but forgot about the IRA part)... Lo & behold...
So I gave it another day or so... This morning (or yesterday it ticked green & I dumped)...
~~~
No... your eyes aren't deceiving you... Cincy has some weird colors going on... So does Louisville (they got some orange thing going on)... & let's not forget Baylor... They could play in the dark...
"Forgive me then for not comprehending what people mean when they call me "self destructive" & suggest that I seek psychiatric help... (or ask me the question "are you OK?")"
Why did you cut off the rest of what I just said?
Here, let me repeat it, though I doubt it will matter:
pretty sure nobody here has every claimed that you were any of those things
BOLD ----> based only on the information you are presenting
as has been said to you countless times, its the WAY YOU PREFER TO STATE YOUR CASE that creates those labels
not the information itself CV
You just tried to claim that you go 180 from the "daily propaganda" that we all (according to you) apparently prefer and thats why people here say such things to you.
As has been told to you several times nobody here has an issue with you due to the fact that you don't want to be involved in paper, so in effect, what you are really trying to say here is a load of crap.
and btw, if you can't figure out that the letter there is fake, I really think you are very lost.
As for cockroaches, you may want to ask yourself why this "person" stayed anonymous, with their only concern being that they would lose their job.
The Greg Smith letter from GS was also a total joke when considered, but that one there really takes the cake.
Read it again perhaps....
LOL, cv (aka closet paper trader)
I KNEW IT!
Baylor looks like a bunch of highlighters out on the floor
@b22
Baylor looks like a bunch of highlighters out on the floor
Instant Classic!
~~~
Don't worry about dissecting your comments or my comments... Bottom line is... I hear what you're saying... The rest is just for dramatic effect... :-)
@qqqq (1:42)
I kno right?
Just wait until May... I promise you all one thing... If I do, indeed... decide in May... to go balls out with an OOTM "SLV" options call... I'll let you all know...
& if I happen to go down with the ship on that call...
- Like I did when Wes Welker dropped a pass
- & when Andy T's wife beat me this year on Oscars picks
I'll own up to it...
I caught oregon's NIT game the other night as well
not so much the uniforms, but their court was wild
and I thought really cool looking
Silver may be the right trade.
Been on the phone with a Wells Fargo retirement specialist(?) to see if I can use $100K of the 401K funds and do my own trades. They sure don't want you to do it and make it hard "to" do it.
SPX, alright already!
punch through 1406, stop teasing!
(might start buying puts, not many)
lol, get'n a piece of Google right here...
placed a couple ads on qqqqcharts,
posted a few charts here and there on ZH,
averaging about $2/day last few days.
qqqq:
Does your company only allow the 401k to be with Wells Fargo?
@qqqq
"averaging about $2/day last few days."
~~~~
Just like Forrest Gump after the first day of being a shrimp boat captain...
"Coupla more & you'll have yourself a cocktail"
JooGLE? Seriously?...
Delta Hotel Sierra are now thoroughly interested in your charts...
Q's
good luck, I traded the large gap down on GOOG in january but I took that trade off already, it is a max 20 day hold using the gap analysis paper from Dahlquist
BinT, yep, it's the only plan they have, with maybe 12 funds to choose from. Plus I like the company match. I'm waiting for them to send me the paperwork... pfft
B22, I'm not trading GOOG, slapped a couple ads on my silly site, peeps visit and I get moola on the % of CPM visitors (however that works) and if they click on the actual ads. Same way BR supplements his income.
CV:
You left out the Drama Queen part! If you are going to tell the story, put all the good parts in!
Here is the story the way it should be told:
I, the CV, am totally misunderstood. I converse with others in an investing chat room daily, and these morons don't understand that there is only one way to make money. GOLD.
And I tell them and tell them and their tiny little light bulbs continue to burn out. I am sure these cretins all wear Velcro shoes, 'cause they ain't none of them bright enough to tie a knot.
And they like dollars! Can you believe it? I mean the paper and ink kind..not American Eagles or silver bars but the discredited fiat kind! It is enough to make you think the gene pool is doomed!
I guess I'll have to sign off for now..My show "Doomsday Survivor" is on, and I can't miss it.
Happy farming, ya'll..
qqqq:
That's what I figured...I am sure that WF has some nice fees in the funds they allow you to invest in...
@Bruce
Touche!... I don't deny the 'drama queen' part of your thesis (but I'd prefer 'drama king')...
Frankly ~ I happen to enjoy drama (which is why I'm an OSCARS fan, & a sports nut)...
I'd apologized to you directly a few days ago with regards to my published dramatic dabbles (& whether, in doing so, I'd actually crossed any lines of decency)...
I'm at peace with that now...
@Bruce
& I still 'envy' your land (lumber) holdings...
Q's..
ah, I read your post to fast, or I just see everything as a trade
for just starting out, I suppose $2 a day isn't too bad....now if you could just figure out a way to double that every couple of weeks you'll be all set
I'll click away on your site a few times this weekend
@Amen/Andy
Hey... I was thinking... This might be a nice QOTD...
"Throughout history, it has been the inaction of those who could have acted, the indifference of those who should have known better, the silence of the voice of justice when it mattered most, that has made it possible for evil to triumph."
~ Haile Selassie
B22, if ya want but no need to, was just an experiment. After looking into how it works, many sites might make a few hundred bucks each day, could be more. I'm getting 300-600 page views each day compared to sites like ZH, which probably get 100,000+/day, which get more % of the CPM.
CPM
Definition
Cost per thousand impressions.
Information
The CPM model refers to advertising bought on the basis of impression. This is in contrast to the various types of pay-for-performance advertising, whereby payment is only triggered by a mutually agreed upon activity (i.e. click-through, registration, sale).
The total price paid in a CPM deal is calculated by multiplying the CPM rate by the number of CPM units. For example, one million impressions at $10 CPM equals a $10,000 total price.
1,000,000 / 1,000 = 1,000 units
1,000 units X $10 CPM = $10,000 total price
The amount paid per impression is calculated by dividing the CPM by 1000. For example, a $10 CPM equals $.01 per impression.
$10 CPM / 1000 impressions = $.01 per impression
@q's
"Traders-Anonymous" was getting around 2,000 at its peak in 2010... Never checked it afterwards (& can't now because I'm down to "author" after handing it back over to Amen & Andy)...
I was curious... but never interested in going all the way towards "monetizing" it...
bergsten wanted to do that from the beginning...
"Hey... I was thinking... This might be a nice QOTD.."
I totally agree CV, we should stand vigilant and raise our voices against the evil that makes up stories about JP Morgan being short silver in order to prey on weak minds
is that what you were thinking too? or something else......
;-)
I'm going to PLAY AROUND with "monetization" on the FANTASY SPORTS blog...
During the NFL season, I got up to about 1,000 hits (oddly enough, a lot from Russia)...
Then the season ended & I let it go to tumble weeds (but I'll ramp it up again)... I want to eventually do a full season of content, but SERIOUSLY, giving away all my secrets in FANTASY BASEBALL or FOOTBALL [where I have "multiples" more of cash on the line in terms of THEORY, vs. a few cents on pages hits] doesn't compensate at the moment...
As I said... It's 'tumbleweeds' at the moment (because the FANTASY BASEBALL drafts haven't occurred yet)...
A few weeks ago I posted the Oscars picks there (out of the blue)... then put a link to that on THIS BLOG...
At exactly that moment, my page hits went from zero to 60 in no time flat...
Must have just been a coincidence (because people here were telling me that nobody even reads my comments anyway)...
@b22
If you REALLY want to know what I was thinking (vis-a-vis: that comment)...
I was more thinking it was something that I-Man would "ken"...
Careful CV, pretty sure you'll get paid in dollars for that
I guess you could wipe your ass with them? Maybe use them for oil dry next time you spill some?
just razzing you man.....I bet you could make some money off that site
and you know what.....you should!
B22
lool, just lol
funny, post a little comment on ZH, instantly...
4 Recent Pageviews:
6 Recent Pageviews:
10:37:52
Netherlands
Naarden, Noord-Holland10:37:46
Finland
Raisio, Western Finland10:35:57
United States
Corona Del Mar, California10:34:38
United States
New York, New York10:34:23
United States
Collierville, Tennessee10:32:50
United Kingdom
Southampton, Southampton
@ben
lulz... I swear (& I admit this FREELY)... Part of me wants what I feel is "the ponzi" to go on and on an on)... I only have a moral dilemma as to the negative effects towards certain parts of humanity...
Look at it another way... If it is TRUE that I like "sports & fantasy sports games" (which I admit to)... I'd be a liar to say that a FIAT COLLAPSE might have a deletorious effect towards that (temporary or not)...
So FIAT is what I have taken to call it lately... "BEER MONEY"... The amounts I have wagered on fantasy sports leagues + actual beer (which I have the facilities to homebrew, but, just sayin'), + the "sofa cushion" money (like I discovered with the BAC thing), that I admit that I'm likely to let roll (hopefully on OOTM SLV contracts in May)... & other odds & ends...
As for everyone else... Do what you want... BUYER BEWARE...
Here's Bill Gross (on YAHOO no less), to say what he thinks...
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/pimco-bill-gross-qe3-inflation-muted-growth-way-115229488.html
Note:
I come by the Bill Gross link ACCIDENTALLY because I was trying to log in to Yahoo for a fantasy baseball mock draft & some spring training news...
OK ~
So my web browser stalled & the fantasy baseball mock draft I was referring to AUTOPICKED...
Joey Votto, Justin Upton, Andrew McCutcheon, & Elvis Andrus for me in the 1st 4 rounds...
YGBFKMe!... I couldn't win a "AA" league fantasy league with that roster ('cept maybe for VOTTO)...
Algos bitchez!... I guess that's why the S&P is at 1,400...
Its been curious watching BG over the last 18 months
he made a horrendus call on govvies last year, mainly because he thought he was intuitive but totally denied what the market did during QE1 (Jeff Gundlach's words really, not so much mine)
and so it would seem ever since then he wants to blame Bernanke and Co for his poor call.
waaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhh
next time Bill, close your fund down before it becomes too big to manage (TBTM)
@Amen
I don't kno...
But I'm GUESSING that we're at a new WEEKLY 3lb high candle on the S&P this week (make it MONTHLY, if it lasts thru the end of month ~ not to mention QUARTERLY)...
What recession?
no jetpacks yet, but these are cool in the meantime:
http://uncrate.com/stuff/air-strike-catapult/
qqqqtrader said...
funny, post a little comment on ZH, instantly...
..I took the liberty of linking to one of your charts on CR recently too..hope that's ok..
Q4,
re: picking up some 'Cache' via GOOG..
as is heard 'round these parts: ~"Why the ____ not?"
IOW, good going~
~~~
cv--
that whole "I've serious 'CASH' riding on 'Fantasy Sports'-Roto-Leagues...so, I'm better off not 'divulging' my "Secrets"--thing..
then, OMG, I got Auto-Picked, Again, with that Roster....yada^n..
~~
can you Blow any more Smoke up your Ass?
~~
you might want to be 'careful', you'll wind up, either, attracting Indians, or, fire-fightin' Ursines..
but, at the EOD, Best of Luck~, either way..
AAIP
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yKB07SImil0
runs ~6 and a 1/2 mins.
today was upset day ....
Duke goes down! Loving it
& as far as revealing any secrets to anybody here (based on what I stated above)...
The only ones who might even get anything out of it might be ben or Andy himself (none of the rest of you participate)...
Furthermore, there are zero to none of the people who I know in the fantasy sports world (at least the ones I'm involved with in money leagues), who give a hoot in hell about a stock trading blog)...
I keep getting a comment which is deleted...
from before
@AAIP (6:07)
You ought to try actually doing something before you 'diss it sight unseen... (& I'd asked you before if you wanted to become involved in one of the fantasy leagues & you declined, so I'm assuming you have limited knowledge of how they operate in practice)...
I'll enlighten you to some degree...
~~~
Do you really think I get most of the (what were), up to 1,000 page hits on the fantasy sports blog because of links that I post on this blog?
The answer is "no"...
Last fall, I got most of my page hits due to "links" that I'd put up while doing MOCK FANTASY DRAFTS (literally dozens upon dozens of them)... Yahoo, ESPN, & others... (there are comment 'chat' boxes that the players in a draft can yuk it up during the draft, which can last anywhere from 30 minutes to an hour)... That's where I link (if I want to, or feel it's opportunistic)... In 3 seconds you can feel if the draft is filled with 14 year olds, or serious players...
When you do that, you need a "username"... It gets tiresome to have multiple names, but if you use the same one all the time (& if you do it frequently enough), you run into the SAME PEOPLE in the mock draft rooms all the time (these, I suppose, could be like the "pros" of online poker)...
So basically, you get to know everybody's profile... I haven't gone so far as to keep logs, but I have a pretty good memory & already know the 'tendencies' of certain players (i.e. WHO THEY'RE GOING TO DRAFT & IN WHAT ORDER)... Remember ~ these are "mocks"...
I never use my actual username (& save that ONLY for the final real live drafts)... Many of the leagues that I'm in I got in by being online (so they're not just with friends)...
Most of my "friends" who I'm in a league with, don't even know about my FANTASY BLOG (some, like ben & Andy, do)... Anyway, last year I mostly just did "against the spread" picks (so it only had lateral applications with regards to fantasy leagues)...
Not only do I use fake usernames when doing mock drafts, but I also, on purpose, change the order... For example, let's say I'm targeting player "x" in the 5th round... I'll just draft normally (just to see if the player is still on the board)... Then, instead of taking them, I'll just take the next player available (regardless)... It would make it harder for one of the other REGULARS to profile you (even though your name was fake)... or, you could create a new account everytime, but that would be cumbersome...
So you can sit there and think it's a joke all you want, but in the end, there's REAL (fiat) money on the line & you do everything you can do 'creatively' to keep yourself flying under the radar... Ben & Andy have been doing fantasy with me for a couple years now & I guarantee you they would not know me if they came across me in a mock draft...
Doing a FANTASY BLOG is the opposite of flying under the radar & for that matter I'm new to the process of either wanting to make a serious go at that, or just doing the fantasy leagues (where I'm making a lot more money doing in the present moment)... Andy & ben can verify this (& even some other people on this blog (like 'roger' ~ who people around here know by another name)...
the above referenced AUTOPICK was a "mock" as well...
I haven't drafted yet in any of my money baseball leagues...
Which is probably the part you didn't comprehend... I've only had it happen ONCE that the computer froze up on me while entering a draft room in a real live draft in a money league...
I said WTF (& still managed to guide the team to the playoffs)... Andy T can tell you that story...
@AAIP
I'll say one more thing (about money fantasy leagues)... I'll try to "quantify" this a bit...
Let's use a simple data constant like "par"...
~~~~
A "par" money league may operate (as with "units" in wagering), as follows...
$100 entry fee/10 team league = $1,000 prize pool
Things may vary a bit (in terms to buy-ins, payouts, & # of teamsm but that's pretty standard)...
Most "playoff formats" operate in a way that either 6 teams make the post season (with 2 teams getting BYES)... Or ~ 4 team playoffs with a standard semi finals - finals finale...
Therefore, if you get your team into the playoffs, you're mathematically assured of a 25% chance of, say, winning a 10-1 payout on your entry...
A lot of it is LUCK once you're in the playoffs, but "getting to" the playoffs (iow~ getting yourself into that mathematical bracket) is all due to your skill (in drafting & in managing)...
There are many ups & downs during each season...
I have a very high success rate at getting into the final playoff brackets...
Which means that I turn a 10-1 shot (on day one), into a 4-1 shot (at end of season)...
Mathematically... I'll win 2.5 leagues out of 10 entries...
$1000 investment... $2,500 return...
I'm sure most stock traders would take those kind of odds...
If you'd like... I'll do a screen caption (& post it up) of the list of 10 ESPN FF leagues I did last year whereby it shows the final results...
I won 4 out of the 10... My "worst" finish was 5th (with a 6-7 record, where I missed the playoffs by one game)...
Sorry ~ thoughts keep pumping into my head as I'm writing...
Also ~ in quite a few leagues I do, the general practice is to "chop" the pot once your team is in the finals... The two finalists just agree to split the booty...
Essentially, that means a 50% mathematical probability that you'll receive "some payout" if you just get to the playoffs (cuz all you're talking about is winning ONE week)...
So the probabilities shift to your favor (& the aggregates vary, depending on on the individual deals)...
cv--
I went with:
"that whole "I've serious 'CASH' riding on 'Fantasy Sports'-Roto-Leagues...so, I'm better off not 'divulging' my "Secrets"--thing..
then, OMG, I got Auto-Picked, Again, with that Roster....yada^n..
~~
can you Blow any more Smoke up your Ass?..."
above..
~~~~~~~~~~
you come back with..
"You ought to try actually doing something before you 'diss it sight unseen... (& I'd asked you before if you wanted to become involved in one of the fantasy leagues & you declined, so I'm assuming you have limited knowledge of how they operate in practice)...
I'll enlighten you to some degree..."
~~~
is there anyone, else, that took what I said as a 'diss' to 'Fantasy-Sports' participation?
~~~
please, like I said, beware of Indians and/or fire-fightin' Ursines..
&
but, at the EOD, Best of Luck~, either way..
AAIP
@AAIP
Then please enlighten me as to what you meant by this comment...
can you Blow any more Smoke up your Ass?..."
~~~
You can spare me with any links regarding ancient medical procedures because hardly anything of that nature would even remotely apply to a fantasy baseball draft...
Generally speaking, as I've come to know the expression, it's been used as a cliche to describe someone telling a lie or fantastical story...
~~~
Look Mark... I have no bone to pick with you... To my recollection, I've never directed any insults towards you... If I differ in opinion on something stated (with anyone), I'll state my views...
My comments regarding fantasy baseball were a simple sideline in a conversation that I was having with ben during the afternoon...
They were not insulting in any way to anyone & were frankly unimportant aside from being basic jabber...
I can't see why you felt compelled to chime in about it...
Generally speaking, as I've come to know the expression, it's been used as a cliche to describe someone telling a lie or fantastical story...
~~~
FWIW... My 'interpretation' of your comment, as applied to the above, was mostly as follows:
"Blow any more smoke up your ass" was a direct attack on the fact that I'd made comments regarding being reluctant to publish detailed "draft theory" on my fantasy blog (because, in doing so, it would be tantamount to giving away trade secret)...
So anyone commenting as you did would basically be saying... "Pffffffffttt, AS IF your theories have any value at all"...
Which naturally puts me in a defensive posture, because if I leave it dangling like that, it's as if you win "nolo contendre"...
& of course, the sequel to that is that I have to go about a long explanation to prove my case (on an idiot subject to begin with), for which I later get accused of being a drama [insert royal rank here]...
cv--
Text has Limits..
this: "..."Pffffffffttt, AS IF your theories have any value at all"..."
was Not the Intent..
~~
I was 'drawing out' the "Delta"(difference) between..
~~~
"that whole "I've serious 'CASH' riding on 'Fantasy Sports'-Roto-Leagues...so, I'm better off not 'divulging' my "Secrets"--thing..
(and)
then, OMG, I got Auto-Picked, Again, with that Roster....yada^n..
~~~
this: "...can you Blow any more Smoke up your Ass?..."
was a/(my) reaction to you telling, on one hand, about your 'Roto-League'-Skillz, and, then, on the other, 'complaining' about getting 'Auto-Picked'(by some 'Oversight' of yours?) in a 'Roto-Draft'...
~~~
though, "I have no bone to pick with you", goes, here, too..for sure..
I've said, oftentimes, ~"I tend to agree w/ you.."
and, what's, really, funny is that you, even, are aware of ~"...You can spare me with any links regarding ancient medical procedures..."
which, more to my point, original 'point', leads to the, additional, advisory of: "please, GFR."
as well, as I stated, previously: "...please, like I said, beware of Indians and/or fire-fightin' Ursines..
&
but, at the EOD, Best of Luck~, either way..."
~
AAIP
which, more to my point, original 'point',
which, more to my point, original, 'point',
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