Sunday Evening Post: Week Ahead Look S&P 500 and GOLD

Hello All,

Too busy watching football to make any extraneous comments right ow, so just please read the Scribd File below.  S&P 500 is covered as usual but I've also added in some thoughts on the yellow metal.

Peace out.

Market Commentary 8Jan12


Gus said...

Many thanks for taking the time to provide the charts, Andy. I do appreciate it. Cheers.

Steve from Winnipeg said...

Andy, thanks for the updated charts. I still think something significant ended for gold back in August ... the move from Jan to August looks like a 161.8% extension of the move from Feb/10 to Oct/10. A normal target for the correction would be ~1400. But the 23.6% retrace is important to watch as you note (and have noted many times in the past). I have to say that level (23.6%) is not watched by very many ... and thus has proven to be a very useful thing to watch for many markets!!

On a different topic, I was watching Bloomberg TV tonight and they talked about 2012 brokerage forecasts for the Shanghai composite. I think I did 4 or 5 double takes trying to do the math in my head. average forecasts ranging in the 30% to 50% increase area. Never, ever seen anything like that while a market is in a bear market. Major slope of hope there -- I think it makes sense to be bearish anything tied to China!

Note ... Shanghai composite is at 2160 or so right now ...

Brokerage Index Target
CICC Shanghai Composite none
Citic Securities Shanghai Composite *2,800
Shenyin & Wanguo Shanghai Composite 3,000
Guotai Junan Shanghai Composite 3,000
Galaxy Securities Shanghai Composite 3,100
GF Securities Shanghai Composite 3,100
Sinolink Securities Shanghai Composite 3,200
BNP Paribas Shanghai Composite 20-25% Gain
UBS Shanghai Composite Up to 30% Gain
Citigroup Shanghai A-Share Index **2,400-2,800
Credit Suisse Shanghai A-Share Index 2,900
Nomura Shanghai A-Share Index 15-20% Gain
Goldman Sachs CSI 300 Index 3,200

(the headline talks about "no consensus" ... ummm, no consensus on the final number, but complete consensus on a massive move up!)

Anonymous said...

"...Circulating Coins Shipped to Federal Reserve Banks(in millions) FY 2011 FY 2010 Change
Cents 4,289 3,487 23.00%
Nickels 914 359 154.60%
Dimes 1,403 887 58.17%
Quarters 323 252 28.17%
Dollars 467 414 12.80%
Total Coins 7,396 5,399 36.99%

Following two years of unusually low demand, circulating coin shipments increased across all denominations. The largest increases were experienced for the nickel and dime at 154.60% and 58.17%, respectively. Last year the nickel and dime had also seen a large increase in shipments. During the 2009 fiscal year, shipments had reached extreme lows at 207 million nickels and 358 million dimes. Quantities for the latest fiscal year are about quadruple these amounts.

Shipments of quarters during the fiscal year remain historically low at 323 million. The US Mint previously cited the “more than sufficient” inventory levels of quarter dollars held at Federal Reserve Banks, which limited orders placed for new coins.

Meanwhile, shipments of $1 coins remained high despite an inventory of more than 1.25 billion held at Federal Reserve Banks. The Reserve Banks have been placing orders for each newly released Presidential Dollar in order to make unmixed quantities of the coins available to banks and depository institutions during an introductory period. The Treasury Department recently announced a suspension of production for Presidential Dollars.
Seigniorage from Circulating Coin Shipments(dollars in millions) FY 2011 FY 2010 Change
Value of Shipments $776.9 $618.2 25.67%
Gross Cost $428.1 $317.4 34.88%
Seigniorage $348.8 $300.8 15.96%

The total value of circulating coin shipments for the 2011 fiscal year was $776.9 million, an increase of 25.67% from the previous year. The gross costs of producing the coins rose by a larger 34.88%. The average market prices for copper, nickel, and zinc increased from the previous year, offsetting lower sales, general, and administrative expenses.

Total Seigniorage increased by 15.96% to $348.8 million. The seigniorage per dollar issued declined to $0.45 in the 2011 fiscal year, compared to $0.49 in the prior year..."


Anonymous said...

...Circulating Coin Unit Cost by Denomination FY 2011 FY 2010 Change
Cents 0.0241 0.0179 34.64%
Nickels 0.1118 0.0922 21.26%
Dimes 0.0565 0.0569 -0.70%
Quarters 0.1114 0.1278 -12.83%
Dollars 0.1803 0.3157 -42.89%

The unit cost of producing and distributing the cent and nickel rose during the fiscal year, while the costs of the dime, quarter, and $1 coin declined. These numbers were impacted significantly by a change in the method for allocating sales, general, and administrative expenses. In previous years, the costs were allocated to products based on gross margin. From fiscal year 2011 onwards, the costs are allocated based on the costs to manufacture, market, and distribute each product.

Previously, a large portion of SG&A expenses were allocated to $1 coins, with no allocation made to the cent and nickel. Accordingly, the change in reported unit cost for these denominations was the most significant. For the 2011 fiscal year, the reported unit cost of producing the cent rose by 34.64% to 2.41 cents, the cost of the nickel rose by 21.26% to 11.18 cents, and the unit cost of the dollar coin dropped by 42.89% to 18.03 cents.

This article is part of continuing coverage of the United States Mint’s 2011 financial results.

Related posts:
Cost to Make Penny and Nickel Rises, Annual Loss Reaches $116.7 Million
United States Mint 2011 Financial Results
The Unusual State of Our Circulating Coinage
US Mint Circulating Coin Shipments Shift Towards Lower Denominations
Cost to Make Penny and Nickel Rises for US Mint

"coinupdate" is a pretty intersting site..


cv said...

@Andy T (from other thread)

Ravens beware....

Of who? Houston??? LULZ

Thanks for starting my week out on a comedic note :-)!

Andy T said...


Glad you hear from you.

Agree with the sentiments on China...

cv said...

@AAIP (5:46)

"The unit cost of producing and distributing the cent and nickel rose during the fiscal year"


Ummm... ammo jackets are made from brass (which is an alloy of Cu(75% of a nickle, since 1946 is copper), & Zinc (97.5% of a post 1982 US penny is zinc, 100% ~ 1982 or prior)...

The other 25% of a US nickle is, Nickle (used for armor plating...

I suppose only a self destructive person would know that...

In any case... "Dr. Copper" works in mysterious ways, don'tcha think?

AmenRa said...

Large companies with large cash reserves are using that cash to fund repos with EU banks for their day to day operations.

The fat lady is currently practicing do-re-mi before her main performance.

Anonymous said...


all I know, for the Time being, is that I'm rooting for a second Home Game, in Houston~


AmenRa said...

Schizo market. That is all.

AmenRa said...

These moves higher keep being made on lower volume (ES). Big f'in deal that Merkozy had another meeting where nothing will be accomplished. How long does it take for the market to realize that these piecemeal solutions won't fix anything?

BinT said...

Nov. consumer credit surges by $20.4 billion
3:28 pm ET 01/09/2012 - MarketWatch Pulse News Bullet
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. consumers increased their debt in November by a seasonally adjusted $20.4 billion, the largest increase since November 2001, the Federal Reserve reported Monday. Monthly debt rose at a 10% annual rate in November, a much faster pace than had been expected by Wall Street economists. All types of credit gained in the month. The non-revolving category of debt, such as auto loans, personal loans, and student loans, rose $14.8 billion, or 10.7%, in November. Credit card debt jumped by $5.6 billion, or 8.5%, in the month.

AmenRa said...


re: credit card debt

Did consumers actually spend more or did the banks increase the amount available?

AmenRa said...

It's all about tricking the market that consumer spending is increasing and the economy is getting better. I call BS.

Leftback said...

It's called Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Christmas.
It happens every year so I am told.

The Fat Lady said...

AmenRa (11:56) - I would be curious to know if these companies are using their cash to finance Repos because they want to or are they being forced to?

Either way, it is doubtful things will end well.

Mangy Mutt

Sounds like a tradition said...

Leftback - This Thanksgiving thing you speak of almost sounds like a tradition.

Come to think of it, that Christmas things does too.


AmenRa said...

So you're saying consumers have paid down their debt far enough to allow for the holiday splurge?

Not Sure Why CC Debt is Up said...

Of course the banks have the credit card data in front of them, so obviously they would know what percentage of people are delinquent on their CC Bills, but with unemployement being as high as it is for as long as it has been that the banks are liking what they are seeing from the consumer, so it would be hightly unlikely that they would be increasing the avaible balance.

And with the massive amount of debt that most people owe, it would not make too much sense that after spending years paying down their CC Debt and finally getting a taste of the freedom of not owing so much money consumers would willing get back into debt.

I am curious as to where and why that number is as high as it is?


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