AmenRa's Corner 1.4.12

"This is your correlation breaking down..."

Creditcane™: I cause correlations to break down.

Doji day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(233). Holding above the 38.2% retrace (1241.13). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1265.33). QE2infinity. Still above weekly 3LB mid and the monthly 3LB mid.

Bullish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing the 0.0% retrace (80.73). Tested and held SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 79.14).

Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Holding above its 38.2% minor retrace (21.62). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 20.73). The grip of the "fear" zone has been eliminated (for now).

Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its 61.8% retrace (1592.30). Tested and held SMA(233). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1540.90). Must have the precious.

Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing all SMA's. Tested and held its 0.0% retrace (1.2925). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.2947).

Doji day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(144). Holding above its 50.0% retrace (38.24). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 38.94).

Bullish long day. Tested and held SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (18.96). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 20.68).

Spinning top day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its 61.8% retrace (101.94). New high on dally 3LB (reversal is 99.68). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal down.

Bearish short day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed its 61.8% minor retrace (29.76). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 27.24).

Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(144). Holding above its 61.8% minor retrace (38.43). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 34.72).

Bearish short day. Holding above SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). Failing its 50.0% retrace (0.7942). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7818).

Doji day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(55). Tested and held the 38.2% retrace (0.7841). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.8231).



AmenRa said...


"While some observers hope that the massive round of ECB loans to European banks will spur bank purchases of distressed European debt in an attempt to "arbitrage" the higher interest rate on that debt against the 1% rate charged by the ECB, this really isn't what investors should expect. What's actually happening here is that European banks, already spectacularly over-leveraged against their own capital, can no longer successfully access the commercial paper markets for funds, so have had to turn to the ECB for this liquidity. The sheer size of the recent operation was not an indication of potential new bank demand for distressed European debt, but instead was an indication of how strapped the market for short-term and unsecured funding has become for European banks. Moreover, the whole "arbitrage" idea is flawed in the sense that it implies that the capital shortfall of European banks can reliably be bridged out of the pockets of the most distressed EU member countries.

Let's be clear about this - if European banks were to use the funds from the ECB to make significant new purchases of European debt, their capital ratios would become further strained, their portfolios would become more unbalanced, the market for new short-term and long-term bank funding would become even more deserted, and the timeline for European bank receivership and restructuring (a phrase that we prefer to "failure") would simply be accelerated."

Andy T said...


Yep. It's cannot solve an issue of solvency with more liquidity.

Andy T said...

Also, love the nuke pic....

BinT said...

"Alcoa Inc. (AA) earnings estimates have plunged the most in three years as analysts’ expectations mount that the biggest U.S. aluminum producer may even record a fourth-quarter loss.

Net income will tumble 94 percent to 1 cent a share from 21 cents a year earlier, according to the average of 18 analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. That’s 82 percent less than the average projection from a month ago."

...I am glad my cold showers interrupted my lust for this stock just a few weeks ago...

cv said...

@Bruce (from other thread)

OK... fair enough...

But the logic inside me might ask the question as to how someone could come to the conclusion that a PERSON they have never met, & has only read stories about and/or chatted with over a blog medium is "self destructive"...

By way of example I'll offer this...

I honestly estimate that I have taught over 18,000 classes in my 30 year career... I've had classes as high as 10,000 people (at a time - in attendance... That's TRUE... In Rio de Janiero one time I had over 10,000, at least a half dozen times in various places, I've had over 5,000... One time, in '88, in Seoul, South Korea, I'm thinking it might have actually bigger than Rio, but I'm not sure)... ALSO, I've had them as low as 2-3 (people)...

But probably the 'median' is about 25-30...

Do do the math... 18,000 X 25 (lowballing it)= 450,000 direct contacts (just putting those 40 or so large classes puts you over a half million, but then you have to reduce based on some redundancies)...

Actually, I think it is an error to REDUCE based on redundancies because those are the ones who somehow found some 'intrigue' in the SELF DESTRUCTIVE person that you describe...

Location wise... we're not talking one place, or one language... I've had these experiences in over 45 countries in the world (& frankly, only HALF the totality of everything described above was done within the boundaries of my native soil)...

I've performed these feats speaking at least a half dozen languages on a moderately decent proficiency level... I've wined & dined with them, & they've all welcomed me into their homes (for extended periods)... I've reciprocated that (mostly when I lived in Los Angeles - my place was like a MOTEL TO THE WORLD as I had Swedes, Brits, Norwegians, Brazilians, Russians, Argentinians, Mexicans, Icelanders, Danes, Canadians, Japanese, Koreans, South Africans, Aussies, New Zealanders, Portugese, Chileans, Canadians & many more stay at my place... The TRUST level was such that many of them stayed there even when I wasn't there...

Once, I executive produced a television show (for FOX SPORTS), which was a $5 million dollar production)... Whereby there were 6 athletes from important cities worldwide... (Moscow, Rome, Rio, New York, Los Angeles, Miami)... It was a logistical nightmare, but I'm happy to say that I was able to communicate with all of them in their native languages... Two of the athletes for each team were Olympic medalists... Featured among the American cities were the likes of Gary Hall Jr. (winner of most medals all time by an american athlete at the summer Olympics, & Jenny Finch... Also was Jason Taylor, all-pro linebacker for the Miami Dolphins who is retiring this year and is a shoo-in for the Hall of Fame)...

I've also produced the same calibre of events (in Europe) in and around the pro-tennis circuit... Close friends & confidants there include tennis stars Boris Becker, Martina Hingis, Ivan Lendl, Goran Ivanisevich, Ion Tiriac, former skiing stars Marc Ghirardelli, Pirmin Zurbriggen, & Alberto Tomba...

I've trained both Perugia AC (soccer) while they played in Italian 'Serie A', and international soccer stars Hidetoshi Nakata, Paolo Maldini, Roberto Baggio, & Zinedine Zidane...

Bottom line is... I think that's probably enough of a menu of people that I've actually worked with FACE TO FACE who might be qualified to give you an accurate assessment of my character...

I'm dreadfully sorry that I've failed to meet your high standards...

Larry Bothritz said...

Yea, but have you written a book?

Anonymous said...

(AP:DETROIT) Fiat has added 5 percent to its majority ownership of Chrysler.

The Italian automaker got the added stake by making a car in the U.S. that gets 40 miles per gallon of gas.

With the added shares, Fiat now owns 58.5 percent of Chrysler.

The U.S. government, which bailed out Chrysler and funded its 2009 restructuring under bankruptcy protection, gave Fiat a 20 percent stake in Chrysler in July of 2009 in exchange for Fiat's management expertise and use of its technology. Fiat gradually raised its ownership by meeting performance goals and buying the government's stake in Chrysler.

Chrysler said early Thursday that a pre-production version of the new Dodge Dart compact got 40 mpg in testing by the Environmental Protection Agency in late December. Full testing for the mileage sticker that will go on the Dart's window has not been finished. The window sticker testing is done under different standards and could be lower than 40 mpg.

The added 5 percent stake came from shares held by a United Auto Workers trust fund that pays for retiree health care. The trust still owns 41.5 percent of the company. Chrysler is planning an initial public stock offering, perhaps this year, to help the trust convert its shares to cash.

The Dart, to be built at a factory in Belvidere, Ill., goes on sale in the first half of this year as a 2013 model. It will be unveiled next week at the North American International Auto Show in Detroit. It's based on the same underpinnings as an Alfa Romeo Giulietta.

One of the Dart's three engines will be a Fiat-designed 1.4-liter turbocharged powerplant that also goes into a high-performance version of the Fiat 500.

Sergio Marchionne, CEO of both Fiat and Chrysler, said in a statement that the added 5 percent stake is another step in the integration of the two companies.

some things are difficult to express in Words..

must have been the same problem that the MSM was having--in covering these 'deals', 2+ Years ago..(when they were occurring..)


Anonymous said...

also, on the FB 'front'..

those Mountaineers came something to prove..

was interesting to hear, after the Game, from 'a Player', that ~'they were ticked that 84% of peep thought they were fixin' to Lose..'

had I known that # ... :)

don't think I would have been 'fadin' the Mountaineers..'

anyway, both of those Coaches seem like 'decent dudes'..

was an entertaining Game, from the parts that I watched..

also, anyone else think that Gruden is one of the best Football announcers?


AmenRa said...

ADP 325k


AmenRa said...

Consensus was 160k

Service Providing 273k
Goods Producing 52k

AmenRa said...

EURUSD is getting an old school back alley beatdown.

EURCHF dipped below 1.2100. Ring ring. Hello SNB here.

BinT said...


With a resume like that you should be asking yourself "Why have I ended up where I am now"...

...People only get help when they realize they need it.

You are right, I don't know you..why don't you ask a good friend what the trouble is...I, again without knowing you, suspect you have few friends...

Typical self-destructive behavior.


QQQQ said...

Ra, you really believe those numbers?

Haven't been trading or watching much news for a few weeks now, and you know what, I've noticed I've been saying "oh that's just bullshit!" less and less. This weekend, gonna watch more George Carlin, hike accross the lava on the Big Island and start to sort tax papers... yep, it's that time again.

Andy T said...

The Fiat/Chrysler story is pretty amazing....

It's crazy how much different management/style can affect they way a company operates.

Anonymous said...


the 'news' is little more than a mind-virus..

most are, way, better off without it..


AmenRa said...

Is the site having problems. It's extremely slow today.

AmenRa said...

BTW WTH happened around 11:20-11:25 to send the SPX higher? Was it the EU close?

AmenRa said...

N/M. It looks like DXY was on the verge of breaking 81 before that move.

AmenRa said...

81.01 was the high weekly close from 2011. It was the first week of January. Then DXY got pummeled through May.

Anonymous said...


finviz, from a couple of 'clicks', on this end, seems ok..



I think it's *funny that with all of the 'crowing' about Au...

Pt, down way more, is neary a mentioned..


Anonymous said...



I'm seeing ~81.25

HOD: 81.28

this puppy..

methinks, is going to see an 8-handle, this year..


AmenRa said...


That is DX futures not spot.

Can anyone explain WTH IS GOING ON? The market is getting forced higher yet DXY way up, EURUSD way down, 10yr yield down, JNK, HYG, LQD and WTI down.
Even BAC is over $6!!!

AmenRa said...

The money from the IMF slated for Greece in December was pushed back to March. The money for March was pushed back to June. Isn't there a default in there somewhere since Greece couldn't pay their bills?

Anonymous said...


right you are, sorry for the oversight..


hasn't been over 81, all day, from the looks of it..

"Barnes & Noble" doing real well..not..

gotta like this, though..

02-Dec-11 Initiated Maxim Group Buy $20

stk, now ~10.85


Anonymous said...


the 'official' blab..

(RTTNews) - Stocks have shown a notable turnaround over the course of the trading day on Thursday, recovering from the notable weakness seen in early trading. The major averages have bounced well off their lows for the session, climbing into positive territory.

While lingering concerns about the European debt crisis initially helped to drag stocks lower, a batch of upbeat U.S. employment data helped to limit the downside for the markets.

The subsequent rebound by the markets is partly due significant strength that has emerged among banking stocks. Reflecting the strength in the banking sector, the KBW Bank Index has surged up by 2.7 percent to a two-month intraday high.

Biotechnology, housing, electronic storage, and healthcare provider stocks have also shown strong moves to the upside on the day, while notable weakness remains visible among trucking stocks.

The major averages are currently all in positive territory, although the Dow is only just above the unchanged line. The Dow is up 6.78 points or 0.1 percent at 12,425.20, the Nasdaq is up 21.70 points or 0.8 percent at 2,670.06 and the S&P 500 is up 4.25 points or 0.3 percent at 1,281.55.

For comments and feedback: contact


AmenRa said...

The SPX still couldn't escape the hair from Tuesday.

Anonymous said...

Natural Gas 2.9750 -0.1210 -3.91%

the 'Natty' sub U$D 3 ~!


AmenRa said...

ADP (from 1/5/11):
297k up from a revised 92k with service producing adding 270k and goods producing adding 27k.

NFP (from 1/7/11):
Nonfarm 103k, Private 113k, U3 9.4%. Consensus for Nonfarm was 160k and Private was 180k.

Deja vu'?

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