Creditcane™: I need a f'in drink after this opex week.
SPXDragonfly doji day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Tested and held the minor 38.2% retrace (1314.25). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1295.50). QE2infinity.
DXYSpinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing the 0.0% retrace (81.50). Failing SMA(21). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 81.35).
VIXBearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 61.8% minor retrace (18.81). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 20.63).
GOLDBullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its 50.0% retrace (1655.20). Holding above SMA(21). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1655.60). Still above monthly 3LB mid. Must have the precious.
EURUSDSpinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(21). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (1.2777). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.2700).
JNKSpinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above SMA(21). Tested and held its 61.8% retrace (38.86). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 38.30).
10YR YIELDBullish short day. Tested and held SMA(89). Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (18.96). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 20.68).
WTIBearish long day. Tested and failed SMA(21,55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing its 61.8% retrace (102.00). New low on dally 3LB (reversal is 103.12). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal down.
SILVERBullish long day. Tested and held SMA(55,89). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its 38.2% minor retrace (31.85). New high on daily 3LB changes (reversal is 29.89).
BKXBullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Failing its 50.0% retrace (43.76). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 42.08).
HYG/LQDBullish short day. Tested and held SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (0.7808). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7908).
EEMBullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above SMA(144). Holding above its 38.2% retrace (40.13). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 40.42).
COPPERBearish engulfing day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(144). Holding above its 38.2% retrace (3.684). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 3.649).
XLEDoji day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 38.2% retrace (66.62). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 67.17).
IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.
45 comments:
VIX not looking too saucy...
Which some may consider an indication of FEAR...
In which case... It might appear that there is not much fear in losing little rectangular pieces of cotton bet on companies with cooked books...
"Might"... (he said)...
I guess it's kind of like inmates in a prison gambling with cigarettes in a poker game...
ones who DON'T smoke...
I kind of generally see it as follows:
We're basically on an Inside Straight Draw:
There are 4 total outs...
-THE FORMULA-
Total Outs/Remaining Cards
Assuming you're NOT the BB (& that someone doesn't raise)...
Flop to River: 1=[(47-outs/47) x (46 - outs)]
IOW - "Do you feel lucky?...PUNK"
In fact... Just rambling here on a Friday eve here (waiting for snow)... THAT is one of the things that always fascinated me about HOLD 'EM poker...
The "47" & "46" (above), refer to the pre-flop total of cards that you account for (notwithstanding that "the flop" has not occurred yet), then "the turn" (which is the "46")...
So anyway... It always was/is fascinating to me to see which hands get FOLDED "pre-flop"...
More or less, you have to have K9 or better to be on the 50% or better side of the (I think) it's something like 162 different combinations)...
Most that fold WILL NOT have a face card in their hand (or if they do, it's likely suited [giving a FLUSH "out" as well as a straight out])... Which can take the odds of hitting a high straight or flush ON THE RIVER to upwards of 40% (not to mention the "high pair" aspects)...
Anyway, my point is, someone who holds a low inside straight draw (presumably "unsuited"), is probably walking into a lions den of folding cards that up to 8 other players are folding (which reduces the 47/46 to 31/30, theoretically... YET is uncalculable BLIND...
You need sheer nerves to press that bet...
there was talk about "hedgies" in the other thread... I'm guessing most of them NOT NECESSARILY would be winners at Texas Hold Em... BUT... They would be capable of pressing that bet at times (mixed in with moments of sanity when they were dealt an AK suited)...
And in the VERY END (because of the ability to do BOTH), they may make out fairly well...
The very best commodity trader is also the very best Texas hold em player that I know. We have 20 person tourney once or twice a year. This guy has won it all a hugely disproportionate of times. Several months ago this cat rolled in two hours late ver drunk.... He took over the lowest chip stack at the final table and I ended up splitting the top spot with him when we were the last two guys left.
It was a crazy run.
Good traders are extremely intuitive....
@Andy T
I'll AMEN that... (sorry to steal your moniker AMEN)...
Hold Em... U gotta have, above all...
- instantaneous capacity of calculating mathematical odds (if you need a calculator, sorry, you don't qualify ~ u gotta do it in your head in seconds)...
- nerves of steel (which basically means you have NO FEAR OF LOSING)...
- Good observational skills (reading the faces & gestures of opponents)... The players I respect most are the ones who don't need to be wearing x-ray goggles, or fancy hats... Just sit there & stonewall you...
- Of course... a little LUCK helps too
---
I can do the first 3 to some degree (mostly #1 & #3)... I still struggle with the NERVES part... Which is why I can often make it to the last table, but then I feel myself wanting to CHOP (when or if profits could be locked in)...
I should have also included "knowledge of your own habits"... but that falls under #3 as defined...
@cv.
I'm actually a pretty good Texas Hold 'em player...
I can sit at a 20/10 table almost anywhere and come out ahead after several hours...but, it's a "grind." I get bored...
I almost always make it to the final table at the "house" game.... this "guy" I described is the only one I would 'chop' with at the end....
Ever.
Sometimes you just have to know when you're probably going to lose...
i.e. if you're the fastest/quickest guy in your country and you're really good....and you know you're really good, but then you line up against Usain Bolt...
Well, then you know where you really stand afterwards. Ha.
I mentioned the "double irony" of the copyright world vs. the YouTube world a few days ago...
To follow up...
I've listened to enough AWOLNATION in the last few days, I pulled the trigger on some tickets to their show next week here in Houston....
Something I would NOT have done without the YouTube and whatever copyright infringements were going down...
Real artists with something good to sell will always make their money....
speaking of 'Texas Hold'em'..
do you kids ever play 'Omaha'?
"In North American casinos, the term "Omaha" can refer to several poker games. The original game is also commonly known as "Omaha high". A high-low split version called "Omaha Hi-Lo", or sometimes "Omaha eight-or-better" or "Omaha/8", is also played. In Europe, "Omaha" still typically refers to the high version of the game, usually played pot-limit. Pot-limit Omaha is often abbreviated as "PLO." Pot-limit and no-limit Omaha eight-or-better can be found in some casinos and online, though no-limit is rarer.[2][not in citation given]
It is often said that Omaha is a game of "the nuts", i.e. the best possible high or low hand, because it frequently takes "the nuts" to win a showdown. It is also a game where between the cards in his hand and the community cards a player may have drawing possibilities to multiple different types of holdings. For example, a player may have both a draw to a flush and a full house using different combinations of cards. At times, even seasoned players may need additional time to figure what draws are possible for their hand.
The basic differences between Omaha and Texas hold 'em are these: first, each player is dealt four hole cards instead of two. The betting rounds and layout of community cards are identical. At showdown, each player's hand is the best five-card hand made from exactly three of the five cards on the board, plus exactly two of the player's own cards. Unlike Texas hold 'em, a player cannot play four or five of the cards on the board with fewer than two of his own, nor can a player use three or four hole cards to disguise a strong hand.
Some specific things to notice about Omaha hands are:..."
from the Wikipedia..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omaha_hold_%27em
ibid.
personally, I think 'Omaha' is a "better" Game..
@Andy T
I have no doubt you're a good "Hold 'Em' player...
@AAIP
I've mostly played the Hi-Lo version of Omaha...
Which sort of brings me back to one of Andy's points... boredom... That's NOT saying that Omaha, in of itself, is a boring game... In many ways, it's more challenging than HOLD EM...
The 'difference' I'm referring to is that when you play a NO LIMIT (or, tournament style) Hold Em, it sort of evens the playing field a little... In a way, it's like playing golf with a handicap... There's a way you can play against better players and still do well (especially if you're a relative unknown and people don't know your habits)...
In Omaha, or games where you're playing pot limits or less, it's just a grind it out fest...
It's kind of like... If I were playing golf, I'd rather go out and have Tiger Woods give 5 a side, than have to go and give somebody else who was a 10 handicap 5 a side...
cv--
I've seen/been around 'no-limit' Omaha, too..
not sure if it as 'wide-spread' as other versions..
to me, the additional variability (and limits*), make it more 'challenging'/interesting..
*= "...At showdown, each player's hand is the best five-card hand made from exactly three of the five cards on the board, plus exactly two of the player's own cards. Unlike Texas hold 'em, a player cannot play four or five of the cards on the board with fewer than two of his own, nor can a player use three or four hole cards to disguise a strong hand..."
have long thought that ~"if it were 'Omaha', instead of 'Texas Hold'em' that were so popular...~(We'd be in a, radically, different Place..)"
w/'Texas Hold'em', any Idiot can pretend to 'Play'...in 'Omaha' it becomes, readily, apparent who the 'Idiots', actually, are..(thus, I'd reckon, it 'lack' of "Popularity"..)
AAIP
@AAIP
Interesting theory... (which I wouldn't dispute at face value)...
Oddly... Even though we agree that any idiot can survive and play HOLD EM, probably, longer (vs. Omaha ~ where they get exposed faster)...
I still kind of prefer the 'mindlessness' of HOLD EM (not sure what that says about my character)...
I think I'm the type who likes to compute SNAP mathematical computations & draw them out to their likely conclusions... Then, determine risk/reward and move on...
I don't look back...
If I fold a hand pre-flop, I don't find myself watching the flop, turn, or rivers to see WHAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN... I'm not really interested because you can't UNFOLD a hand...
What I'm doing at that point is PEOPLE WATCHING (hopefully, without them knowing)...
I think it's so funny in the movies to watch poker hands being played, and the camera shots are all about the intensity (& histrionics) between the two players... I think that's a laugh... The best opportunity to observe other players is when you're NOT in the hand...
Also... on this...
If I fold a hand pre-flop, I don't find myself watching the flop, turn, or rivers to see WHAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN
The reason I'm disinterested, is that even if a hand became MADE, it still doesn't change the mathematical odds of it having occurred or not...
It's kind of like betting on coin flips...
it doesn't matter whether or not HEADS came up 99 times in a row... The odds on the next flip are still 50-50...
@Andy T
BTW... We're still on for the "double or nothing" on $5 face Frank/Ken's for Pats-Ravens tomorrow...
Earlier this week the line was Pats (-7.5), but most places, including Pinnacle (which usually has the sharpest linesmakers), the line has moved to Pats (-7)...
http://www.pinnaclesports.com/League/Football/NFL/1/Lines.aspx
So I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt and take the Ravens (+7), on the condition that the line doesn't change again... I'll use this source as the final determination (which is also at (7) as we speak)...
http://www.scoresandodds.com/grid_20120122.html
The reason for using SCORES AND ODDS is because they archive all the lines (see the clickable calendar to the right)... Most other sportsbooks, the last lines vanish after the game goes off the board...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/european-rating-agency-rival-p-140734600.html?l=1
European rating agency could launch in 2012: report
Let me guess. Each time any of the major three ratings agencies downgrade an EU institution they will upgrade it. LMFAO.
@Amen Ra
What ever happened to good old reliable "tried & true" STRESS TESTS?
Bwahahahahahaha!
---
@AAIP
It's hard to get a PRECISE read on how the money plays out on this weekend's games... (resource)
http://pregame.com/sportsbook_spy/default.aspx
Bottom line is this...
The Vegas House Card (a term used to collectively say the MOST that the sportsbooks will make, depending on the variety of outcomes - ~ not unlike OPTIONS MAX PAIN), probably would like to see the Ravens facing the 49ers in the Superbowl...
NO DOUBT, that the MSM would like to see the New York Giants vs. the New England Patriots (for obvious reasons)...
The way I see it... VEGAS loses the most if the Giants win and move forward... The public is favoring the Giants in all 3 categories...
- the spread
- the money line
- exotics (teasers)
Vegas will kind of take a small bath if the Giants win...
The Ravens - Patriots variables are juxtaposed against themselves...
- Vegas would like to see the Ravens COVER
- Vegas would prefer to see the Ravens cover (but not win)
- On exotics, the only "out" for Vegas would be a 1 point win by the Patriots...
cv--
that's interesting, re: LV 'book' on NE-BAL..
sort of plays into what I was ~feeling, earlier in the Week..~some kind of 2 pt. Game..19-17...
still, not sure about the BBirds winning..
maybe, if R. Williams gets 15+ 'touches' for ~60+ yards...
but, in the other Game, I'm not convinced that the NYG are going Win..
and, being an Akers 'fan', and a, new, #85 'fan', I think I'm liking SF, for the W ...
ibid.
well, while 'we're at it'..
cv--
what are the BBirds going to do with Gronkowski?
Is one those Thugs, that they have on Defense, really, going to break one his legs?
ibid.
I seriously have no clue which team is going to win either game...
This is what you prepare for all season long (which is why the best teams usually make it this far)... But with 60 minutes left to go to the Super Bowl... It all comes down to who makes the right plays at the right time...
---
One thing about the Ravens... THIS IS IT (for them)... My guess is that both Ray Lewis & Ed Reed may be gone next year... They may still play... but they feel this is their shot... I think the Ravens will draft Vontaze Burflict (Az State) to try & fill Ray Lewis' shoes & he might stay on sort of in a mentoring role... Lewis will eventually become a coach...
For the Pats... Brady isn't done yet... They have Josh McDaniels back, & I wouldn't be surprised if Brandon Lloyd (who only signed a 1 year deal with the Rams), follows McDaniels to NE next year... This gives the Pats the weapon they're missing on offense (#85 was a bust ~ but now that I said that, he'll catch the winning TD here)...
Pats have a window of a few more years... you could almost say they have a perpetual window because they stock up on draft picks & use talent creatively...
Ravens... If they fail here, may even fall behind a younger, upcoming Cincy team next year in the AFC North... It's do or die...
Gronkowski...
I wouldn't be surprised to see him utilized more as a RB in the Pats formations this week...
At any rate, you have to keep him occupied off the line of scrimmage and not let him get into his routes (or disrupt the timing)... The Ravens did a HORRIBLE job last week of containing Owen daniels off the line of scrimmage...
The big difference here though is that Brady prefers to stay in the pocket... Last week, Suggs had a less than stellar performance as he had to try and occupy a TE, then, go after a mobile QB...
Arguably ~ Gronkowski/Brady will be easier to chop & disrupt for Suggs than Daniels/Yates were...
cv--
yeah, I hear that, though, I think if the BBirds are going to Win, they need a decisive 'Time of Possession'-advantage..
or, differently, it'll be the BAL-Offense that 'Does It'..rather than, merely, 'managing the Game'...
~~
though, this: "...I seriously have no clue which team is going to win either game..."
is True/funny..
on the flip-side, I wouldn't be surprised to see the NYG go 48-21, in the W, v. SF..
ibid.
Flacco took too much FLAK for the lack of offense last week...
Furthermore - people have SHORT MEMORIES... In fact, they have 'worse' than short memories... They don't even watch the game and hardly understand little nuances...
Football is always about 2 main things...
- match-up
- & who "makes the plays" at critical times (including penalties & fumbles)
NUANCES:
- The ravens were leading by 2 touchdowns... TWO TOUCHDOWNS! in the 1st quarter... AT HOME (where they have only lost one, ONE... (overtime loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, in a game they were leading in the 4th quarter until Troy Polamalu came in with a wicked blitz and strip sacked Flacco to push the game to OT where the Ravens lost)... They've only lost that one game at home in the last 19 home games at M&T Stadium (that's 3 seasons of football because the Ravens played zero home playoff games in the same stretch, despite winning many on the road ~ failing only twice in Pittsburgh & once in Indy)...
So to think that the Ravens... up by 14 in the 1st quarter, were going to take any chances with a lead like that, under those circumstances... & having one of the best defenses in the league... You'RE NUTS... It's all about managing the game at that point... In the ned, they had zero turnovers, & zero penalties... They could have put the game away earlier (but Houston had a 4th & goal stop)... Arguably, the play before Ray Rice had actually scored a TD (but I'll let that slide)...
Last year, the Ravens led the Steelers by 14 points at halftime at Heinz Field... & turned the ball over 3 times in the 3rd quarter alone... Two were uncharacteristic fumbles by Ray Rice (who hadn't fumbled all year)...
Whatever... More on Short memories...
The Patriots are 'unbeatable' at home?
- The Patriots have lost two out of their last 3 home playoff games at Foxboro (once to the Ravens 33-14, Tom Brady was sacked 4 times and threw 3 interceptions)... Joe Flacco threw a total... TOTAL of 30 something yards passing... So much for the idea of Joe Flacco having to step up his game to compete with Brady... But people don't do their own homework... They listen to 'talking heads' on TV, and therefore, are EXPERTS at game analysis...
- The Patriots have only ONE WIN this year over a team with a better than .500 record... They are 2-3 vs. playoff teams (two of those wins came against the 8-8 Broncos)...
- The Ravens are 7-0 against playoff teams this year... Steelers twice, Bengals twice, Houston twice, & San Francisco once... SF is "in" the NFC Championship game...
- The Patriots were DOWN (within the last 5 games of the season) to: (Broncos by 17 points, Bills by 21 points, Dolphins by 14 points... and they almost lost to the Redskins)...
WTF ever...
In the end, it doesn't matter... Somebody will make a critical play at the right time... Somebody won't...
More tidbits...
The 49ers are (5-1) vs. "playoff" teams this year (while the Giants are (3-3)... The 49ers also went 5-1 ATS (against the spread) in all of those games...
More "mythbusting 101"
- Teams that score 40-plus in the playoffs are 3-19 ATS the following week since 1996... (Pats put up 45 last week)...
- Teams coming off wins of 21-plus at home in the playoffs are 4-9 ATS the following week since 2002... (Pats won by 35 last week)...
- Championship Dog of Seven: Favorites of 7+ in conference championships are 3-7 ATS since 1997... (Pats are 7 point favorires)...
- Tom Brady is 15-5 in the playoff games, but (9-11 ATS)...
The dog didn't eat my homework...
cv--
re: "Flacco"
note: earlier/above I was talking about R. Williams (running the Ball), and Time of Poss. ..
but, no worries, the Ball will get rolled out..and the BBirds will get 'rooled-up' (on).. ;)
ibid.
'rooled-up' ? wtf?
'rolled-up' (on), as in Rolled-Over..~
tho..w/:
"...They don't even watch the game and hardly understand little nuances..."
re: BAL
the Texans LOST that Game.
it was a f***ing Gift, to the BBirds..
AAIP
the Texans LOST that Game
---
Sure... the way it was played, it appeared as such... But it's really a moot point...
- BAL was 'gifted' a Jacoby Jones muffed punt
- BAL was 'gifted' a stupid pass to Andre Johnson which Lardarius Webb easily cut in front of & intercepted...
Spot the Ravens 14 points (at home), and they really don't have to do much... I'M TELLING YOU... At that point it's like... "OK, now come & get us"...
It will be different in Foxboro... Brady can "spot" the Ravens 14 points & still come back... The Ravens know they cannot play conservative offense for 60 minutes... It'll have to be a mix... Because, as you say, time possession will be an important factor...
But in that case, it's just all about converting some key 3rd downs & sustaining drives... It was tough to balance conservative play calling (on 3rd down) vs. an aggressive & talented Wade Phillips defense (who were ranked in the top #3 in most categories)... It might not be the same against the WORST DFENSE IN THE NFL in almost all categories)...
Frankly, that may be the tale in San Francisco as well...
Eli Mnning has bben a wizard in converting 3rd downs recently (including last week vs. the Packers, who have the 2nd worst defense in most categories)...
SF is among the top in the league in most defensive categories...
Down & distance (3rd down)... & who makes the plays... will tell the story in both games...
The rest... pointspreads, etc... is all BS...
---
The Ravens have another un talked about advantage in that they have an exceptional punter & punt cover unit... For instance... Let's say the Ravens can start with modest field position (around the 30 yard line)... Just ONE STINKING FIRST DOWN puts them beyond the 40... Two 1st downs puts them past mid field...
The Ravens punter Koch can pin ANYBODY inside their 10 yard line (with coverage) after just about any series that doesn't go "3 & out" against the worst defense in the NFL...
Brady is going to be looking at 85+ yard fields (not to mention, on the other side, that the Ravens have the #1 Red Zone defense in the NFL)...
These are facts... Not fiction...
One of my main worries... FRANKLY... is fatigue & personnel... If Brady has long fields to work with, & can manage 1st downs, that keeps the Ravens D on the field for a long time... Most likely, the Pats are going to be running an uptempo offense (to keep the Ravens from substitutions)... They could get tired on defense...
It's my biggest fear...
Still not everything... But here are some nice graphical comparisons...
WHEN PATRIOTS HAVE BALL
http://teamrankings-blog-images.s3.amazonaws.com/patriots_ball_vs_ravens.PNG
WHEN RAVENS HAVE BALL
http://teamrankings-blog-images.s3.amazonaws.com/ravens_ball_vs_patriots.PNG
cv. we're defintely on the for the double or nothing...i'm taking NE -7.
NE should win by 14+....
Love all the Flacco BS talk on the sports radio.
Not once did anyone mention that they were facing the best defense in the league.
Flacco got sacked 5 times because the Texans D-Line OWNED the Ravens O-Line.
The WRs couldn't get any separation because the Texan's DB's OWNED the Raven's WR's...
It's just that easy.
Was a stupid game last week... Texans lost it. Kubiak/Yates lost it.
End of story.
Belechick/Brady will NOT lose it....
Brady's got an "edge" to him.
Those WRs and TEs on NE are going to make TSuggs, RLewis, EReed look old and slow.
End of story.
"Arguably ~ Gronkowski/Brady will be easier to chop & disrupt for Suggs than Daniels/Yates were..."
C'mon Man!
cv...you're better than that...
Weekly 3LB Update 1/20/12
End of your story... There, fixed it...
But here's the parts of it that I liked (& were accurate)...
The WRs couldn't get any separation because the Texan's DB's OWNED the Raven's WR's...
- Jonathan Joseph was doing a shutdown job on Torrey Smith... Torrey Smith is probably the fastest guy in the NFL, but he's also a rookie... JJ was manning up on him and would not give him a free release... JJ did a Darelle Revis job in that game... Bonus is that they got him from Cincy, and he has already spent 5 seasons understanding the Ravens system (including ALL the Joe Flacco years)...
- Jason Allen was doing a blanket job on Anquan Boldin, but Boldin is one of the slowest WR's in the league... This was his FIRST game in 5 weeks after coming off knee surgery... Nevertheless, Boldin had SEVERAL catches (on perfectly thrown balls), that he outbattled JA for the reception (they were all 20+ yard catches)... Boldin gets the victory there...
- Who really get the credit (along with Joseph) are the crew of linebackers (Cushing, Barwin,Demeco Ryans, etc.)... They handled Dixon & Pitta very well... Pitta, I think, had no catches, and Dixon battled Allen for a win on another catch...
For all the UNBELIEVABLE WORLD CLASS JOB (you say), of how the Texans totally shut down the Ravens passing attack (combined with how PUTRID & SLOW the Ravens 'looked' [I'm guessing you were watching the game on radio])... Here are the final game stats...
Houston (with all World Andre Johnson) = 5.3 YPC
Baltimore = 5.2 YPC
Yates = 17/35, 3 interceptions (3 more were dropped)
Flacco 14/27, 2 TD's 0 interceptions
THE OLD & SLOW
Ray Lewis = 7 solo tackles
Ed Reed = 6 solo tackles (+1 interception)
T Sizzle = 5 solo tackles
THE FAST & YOUNG & OTHERWISE UNSTOPPABLE
JJ Watt = 9 solo tackles
Brian Cushing = 5 solo tackles
Quinton Demps (plating Ed Reed's position) = 2 solo tackles
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The Patriots have won 9 straight games... however, the last time they played a team with a regular season record over .500 were on oct 30th & November 6th... (NY Giants & Steelers)... New England lost both of those games...
Brady could only muster 17 points against the steelers D (which is arguably older than the Ravens)...
In the same time period... The Ravens have beaten Cincinnati (twice), Houston, Pittsburgh, Houston, & San Francisco... ALL PLAYOFF teams...
...and, as I'd mentioned previously, in the Patriots last 4 regular season games they were:
- down 21-0 vs. the Bills
- down 17-0 vs. the Dolphins
- down by 16 to the Broncos
- barely eeked out a win vs. the Redskins
plus, almost let Indy come back with a 21 point barrage in the 4th quarter...
Hey, but at least they manhandled the TYLER PALKO led Chiefs on a Monday Night game before that...
So they have that going for them...
As for the "Brady/Belichick" aura (as it applies to Baltimore)... here's a recap of the last few times the two teams have matched up
2010 - REGULAR SEASON
FOXBORO - Pats 23 - Ravens 20 (OT)... Pats overcams a 20-10 defecit, and kick a tying FG inside of 2 minutes to tie... The overtime extended to 1:56 remaining, or else the game would have finished in a tie... Flacco threw for 278 yards (2 TD's, 0 interceptions), Brady threw for 267 (1 TD, 2 interceptions)...
2009 - REGULAR SEASON
FOXBORO - Pats 27 - Ravens 21... Ravens take a 2nd half lead 17-14 by strip sacking Tom Brady (by Terelle Suggs) in the end zone for a go ahead TD... Brady also threw another interception in the game... Ravens struggled on offense after losing left offensive tackle Jared Gaither when his leg rolled up in the first quarter... Patriots stopped the Ravens TWICE on 4th & inches on the 4th quarter drives in the Red Zone... On the last play of the game, Mark Clayton DROPPED what would have been the winning TD at the goal line...
2009 - PLAYOFFS
FOXBORO - Ravens 33 - Pats 14... Ravens basically kicked the ever loving snot out of the Patriots... It started on the first play from scrimmage (an 83 yard TD run by Ray Rice)... The INVINCIBLE AURA of Tom Brady threw 3 interceptions & lost a fumble, and was held to the lowest passer rating of his career (49.1)... Randy Moss was held to 48 yards receiving... The Foxboro faithful "booed" the invincible Brady/Belichick all game and most had gone home by the 4th quarter...
2007 - REGULAR SEASON
BALTIMORE - Pats 27 - Ravens 24... The Patriots "undefeated season" almost comes to an end on a Monday Night Football game against... drumroll... KYLE FUCKING BOLLER!!! (& Brian Billick)...
Brady, helped by the zebras (who, without a doubt, were under some kind of NFL League orders to preserve the undefeated season at all costs), toss about 5 flags (on 4th downs), that give a badly rattled Tom Brady, opportunity after opportunity, to score a go ahead touchdown...
This will... In my mind... go down as THE most crookedly officiated games in NFL history...
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You're not going to make me go back to the aging Steve McNair, Kordell Stewart, or Elvis Grbac days of Baltimore QB'ing are you?
...as always... NEVER let facts get in the way...
For all the GENERAL SUCKINESS (of Joe Flacco)... In 4 years in the NFL... Joe Flacco has won 4 ROAD Playoff games...
The ALL WORLD UNSTOPPABLE HALL OF FAME BOUND Peyton Manning has won 2 ROAD Playoff Games in his illustrious 13 year career (with 3 Hall of Fame wide receivers to throw to)...
(But one on those ROAD wins was in Baltimore, so "sha-ZING")... LOL... Oh well, I make no excuses for a decrepit Steve McNair at the time...
@Andy T
(You know I'm just 'funnin here, don't you)... But I do like to get facts straight... You know... just for the official record...
While I know that Joe Flacco is the worst QB in the history of the NFL... here's what the Patriots D got dumped on them in the final weeks of the 2011 season...
- Ryan Fitzpatrick (BILLS) put up 21 points (in the 1st quarter) on them (without Fred Jackson, & with a hobbled Stevie Johnson, and missing their starting center & left tackle)
- Matt Moore (FINS) put up 24 points on them (including 5-13 3rd down efficiency)...
- Tebow put 23 points on them (but unfortunately turned the ball over 3 times)
- Rex Grossman put 27 points on them
- Dan Orlovsky put 24 points on them...
In fact... The only QB's that have scored UNDER 17 points on them were Tyler Palco & Mark Sanchez...
But I'm pretty sure they're just going to man right up angainst the worst QB of all time... Or, at worst, assuming the worst QB of all time (Flaccid), simply does a pedestrian job (equal to the WHO's WHO of the Moore, Orlovsky, Grossman triumvirate, and say, puts up a MEDIAN of 24 points on the scoreboard... Then that BRADY WITH AN EDGE GUY (who you see as a 14 point favorite), is going to just bitch slap that OLD Ravens defense to the tune of 38 points, right,,, RIGHT???...
while knowing... of course... that the Ravens haven't given up more than 34 points (once) to anyone this year... and have only ceded more than 24 points (once), as well...
In fact... Brady himself hasn't scored more than 27 points against this unit in the last 5 years (& probably further ~ if I look back)...
POKER - SPORTS - STOCKS
gambling - gambling - gambling
can/does fibonacci work with all of these?
@Gameblur
Fibonacci???
According to the Vegas House Card (at the moment), the PUBLIC is backing the New York Giants (+ 2.5) against the SF 49ers to very close to 61.8%...
http://pregame.com/sportsbook_spy/default.aspx
best I can do on the spur of the moment...
After all... My name is "JOHNNY GUT FEEL" & therefore I don't really put much thought into anything I say (unless I'm wearing headfones with Madonna tunes playing whilst melting nickles with a propane gas torch as I'm doing jumping jacks)...
cv--
one, also, needs to be wearin' their "Joe Flaccid"-jersey while engaging in.."...wearing headfones with Madonna tunes playing whilst melting nickles with a propane gas torch as I'm doing jumping jacks)..."
~~
but, kidding aside, re: further, above, I never said ~"Flacco was the worst.."
as a matter of fact, I've been one "saying": ~"He gets, way, too much Heat/He's not, nearly, as bad as peep b*t**.."
anyway, to state the obvious, they could turn out to be 'good' games---maybe, the Announcers will not S*ck..~
AAIP
@AAIP
I'd fade the announcers NOT SUCKING...
& last words...
Good Luck Andy!
My heart says... Ravens vs. 49ers in Superbowl (Harbaugh vs. Harbaugh)
My mind says... Ravens - Giants rematch
ED REED is my man... I'm sure every person has a home team jersey in their wardrobe...
CV's is a BLACK #20...
yes, hopefully, for the BBirds/'overall "competitiveness"', Ed Reed will be 'healthy'/not injured (last week's 'ankle'-"issue"..
ibid.
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