AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.


I should not have let the bulls escape to freedom.

Creditcane™: Was it good for you?


SPX
Doji day (morning star?). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing SMA(144). Failing trend line (3/6/09-7/1/10). Failed the 85.4% retrace (1266.79). Failing monthly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1286.17). QE2infinity. "JBTFD. Any questions?"



DXY
Bearish thrusting day. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (72.70). Tested and failed SMA(55). Tested and failed its 23.6% retrace (74.73). Held its weekly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 73.52).



VIX
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Held its 23.6% retrace (18.28). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 18.49). Wants to escape the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Bearish long day (actually confirmed bearish engulfing). Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (1577.40). Failed SMA(21). Held its 23.6% retrace (1515.29). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1557.30). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bullish thrusting day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(55). Tested and held its 76.4% retrace (1.4346). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.4692). "Run Trichet. Run."



JNK
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Made a new 0.0% retrace (39.40). Failing trend line (2/5/10-2/12/10). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 39.96).



10YR YIELD
Doji day. Still below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (29.19). Still below the upper trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 30.61).



WTI
Bearish long day. Failed SMA(144). Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (114.83). Tested and failed its 61.8% retrace (98.93). New low on dally 3LB (reversal is 97.70).



SILVER
Bearish long day (confirmed bearish engulfing). Failing SMA(89) & SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below the upper trend line. Failed its 61.8% retrace (35.28). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 38.30). ""You want delivery! You can't handle the delivery!"



BKX
Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and held its 76.4% retrace (47.07). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 47.69).



HYG/LQD
Bearish long day. Made a new 0.0% retrace (0.8062). Below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 0.8175).




WORLD WIDE PREMIERE JULY 1, 2011

19 comments:

ben22 said...

CV,

An interesting idea you present, that the central banking system is so complex and so large thus making ultimate movements harder/slower, that it has helped make those behind the curtain more patient and willing to wait for the outcome they desire.

Interesting in theory, but I wonder if it has any validity in reality.....

In my mind I consider:

Is that what the banks did? Banks by 2000 were a huge portion of the nations GDP, of the S&P, and had become extremely complex entities with derivatives that far eclipsed the size of the entire nations GDP.

Now, what did they do at that point? Did they see their size and become more patient when it came to profits and generating revenues or did they rather press the pedal even harder and look for profits at all costs, eventually driving themselves right into the ground?

Seems to me it was the latter.

I think trying to argue that these folks are somehow very patient on the quest to obtain all the worlds natural resources, or whatever you want to say they are doing, basically denies the way humans are wired. As I'm fond of saying, people are people, even the one's that want to rule the world, unless of course they are reptillian, but I'm not a big buyer of that idea. :-)

Also, I don't want to pretend to know the history of where the idea of the New World Order comes from, but it's very clearly not a new one, at minimum this was mentioned by Biblical authors, so it's been around a really long time, and we see interesting enough that the popularity in the idea seems to ebb and flow, it's not a constant.

I think the new awareness around it, the "total conviction" people have in it today,.....there is a socionomic theory to all that.

It begins with the authoritarian expressions that we started discussing way back at Andy's site. If people can't see them by now, people that live in the US, they are either totally out to lunch or perhaps have a comprehension problem. The socionomist would state that the fears over the NWO being expressed today, however we want to define that body, are in fact people expressing fear of authoritarian collectivism.

Rising fear is a product of negative social mood and throughout history this model states that during these times, major authoritarian events are produced, they dedicated two papers to this in April and May of 2010, pretty fascinating in fact. They start like this:

"Part 1: The Wave Principle Governs Fear and The Social Desire to Submit

Mention authoritarianism and most people imagine its ultimate incarnation—a dictator wielding top-down control. The socionomic perspective, however, paints a fuller picture.

Authoritarianism begins with a negative social mood trend, which in turn spawns a desire among some to submit to authority and among others to coerce their fellows to submit. At the same time, still others, caught up in the same emotional climate, battle against authoritarianism.

We forecast that a continuing long-term trend toward negative social mood will produce increasingly authoritarian—and anti-authoritarian—impulses and eventually lead to the appearance of severe authoritarian regimes around the globe."

ben22 said...

sorry for the long post, just trying to hash a few things out here, others may prefer just to smoke some hash

a little later in the intro of that paper:

"Bull markets generate consensus even in societies that are very near a Nolan extreme. For instance, the Supercycle wave (IV) of 1929-1932 caused Soviet society to polarize as well. Amid rising factionalism in 1929, Joseph Stalin attempted a hard-left, super-authoritarian move to collectivize agriculture. The authoritarian/anti-authoritarian conflict took a heavy toll:

Farmers considered this policy a return to serfdom. They resisted and destroyed about half the U.S.S.R.’s livestock—some 55 million horses and cows—whereupon Stalin responded by sending about a million families into exile. This conflict, and a catastrophic decline in grain production, exacerbated the famine of 1932-1933 that killed between five and 10 million people.
—Global Market Perspective, “A Socionomic Study of Russia,” November 20072

After Supercycle wave (IV) bottomed, the Soviet centrist diamond re-formed near the repressive authoritarian pole. Then from this unlikely position, the bullish mood behind Supercycle wave (V) unified Soviet society enough that it achieved remarkable success in its space program. The Soviets orbited the first satellite, Sputnik, in 1957; put the first man into space in 1961; and landed the first spacecraft on the moon in 1966.

In contrast, declining mood currently has one of the world’s leading democracies implementing authoritarian practices. In 2004, the British government’s own information commissioner warned that the country risks “sleepwalking into a surveillance society.” Since then surveillance has only increased, while the nation debates whether to accept the scrutiny.

Large-degree bear markets can lead to calls for freedom, authoritarianism, left-leaning and rightist solutions. Where a country ends up is unpredictable. What is predictable is that societies tend to look far different after major mood declines than they did before them."

ben22 said...

also, while I'm pimping

one of my questions finally made the EWI message board:

Question: I seem to recall reading in one of your socionomics papers that traveling by plane is more dangerous during bear markets due to depressed social mood. Lately it seems there have been numerous near-disastrous instances of planes coming close to colliding in air. Is there a connection?

Responder: The Socionomics Institute Date: 6/9/2011
Here is a quote from our September 2009 Socionomist, "A Socionomic Analysis of Cars and Travel": "In January 2007, The Elliott Wave Theorist featured Mark Galasiewski’s essay, 'Aircraft Accidents.' It offered evidence that airplane crashes are more likely in bear markets. ... Success requires cooperation among air traffic controllers, baggage handlers, ground mechanics, the pilot and co-pilot, passengers, flight attendants, and other craft in the air. The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior says that caution, paranoia, and risk aversion characterize declining social mood. When people feel paranoid, suspicious, lazy and self-absorbed, breakdowns in teamwork become more likely -- even in the teamwork necessary to navigate a 3,000-ton plane from gate to gate. ... We then wondered: Does mood affect road safety in the same way?...."


So, anyway, I post this also as a lead-in because then they did a big paper on speed limits and social mood, which was neat, maybe save the speed limit for another time, here was one of the conclusions in that paper:

"Fuel Efficiency (Miles per Gallon)
Cars gain fuel efficiency in bear markets by shedding weight and power. Such changes reflect public disdain for the power of a bull market engine and the desire to save money on gasoline. EPA data tell us that from 1975 to 1982 (1975 is the first year data are available), average miles per gallon increased from 13 mpg to 21 mpg, a Fibonacci 62 percent increase. The low in the PPI-adjusted Dow was 1982, also the final year of a steep rise in efficient-engine technology. Twenty-four years later, in the penultimate b-wave year of 2006, the national average remained 21 mpg. Thus, the average fuel efficiency in the U.S. stood in place for more than two and a half decades, whereas the previous seven years (1975-1982), all in a bear market, saw a 62 percent increase. Fuel efficiency suffered as the great bull market desire for horsepower trumped other concerns.

The relationship between mood and engine design informs car companies to shift their focus from power to efficiency in bear markets. Consumers will want cars that are more efficient. Automakers that meet this new demand will greatly improve their odds of success. Automakers that can anticipate social mood trends will do even better."

I certainly don't agree with all the theories Prechter is throwing out through Socionomics, in some ways they are like the Fed in that they sometimes seem to be throwing wet noodles to see what sticks. Still, I typically find the rationale to their arguments more compelling than the explanations usually given for such things.


Discuss......perhaps here

"The relationship between mood and engine design informs car companies to shift their focus from power to efficiency in bear markets"

Which companies did this and where are they today vs. the auto companies that continued to issue "bull market vehicles"?

ben22 said...

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aWzDS_jt4vkk

At least for Ken Heebner, it paid big time since 2000 to buy his fund when it trailed.

Bill Miller is probably the most interesting story, to say the least.

cv said...

@ben

I just got back (been away since 4PM)...

Gimme a few minutes (& Natty BOH's) to digest your "hash" & I'll come back...

---

OH & by the way (forgot to say this)... Big Papi & PF... Yeah! Beasts!

Gladly I wasn't facing either of them lately in my FBB league...

Best surprise on my team this year... Lance BERSERKman!... Dude went undrafted (I picked him up off the waiver wire in week 1)...

I'm having a crummy year so far in FBB (but I finally did manage to climb back into a playoff spot berth this week - which says ZERO because FBB is a loooooooooooooooooooooonnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnngggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg season)...

My team is an ambulatory ward... Hanley Ramirez - Buster Posey - etc...

In fact, I changed the name of my team from "The Baseball Furies" (The Warriors fame),

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oqyeEMSm3Fg

to... THE BUSTED POSEYS...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PnMYzRZWawI

Hell... This is the kinda season I'm having... As soon as Buster Posey went down (for the season)... I pick up Jarod Saltalamacchia... The DAY I pick him up off of waivers - he gets put in the hospital...

I'm down to Jorge Posada (who doesn't even catch anymore) to fill the position...

The only thing harder than keeping my team healthy is getting anyone to buy Greek debt...

cv said...

@ben

I'm starting in on your posts in this thread... Fantastic...

Let me start by saying that in my REPLY module... I immediately discovered I had to use an ANALOGUE approach... IOW... I'm responding to each part as it goes... I haven't look at the whole thing as a comprehensive (frankly - it probably has to be this way or else the number of characters in each comment would exceed the BLOG HTML limit)... OK, here goes (starting with next comment)... I'm doing this on the fly (with little pieces each time), so if other posts encroach on the haiku structure, so be it (not that I'm responsing in strict haiku technical pattern)...

As always... I apologize in advance for typos...

cv said...

@ben - PART 1

that the central banking system is so complex and so large thus making ultimate movements harder/slower, that it has helped make those behind the curtain more patient and willing to wait for the outcome they desire

I'd prefer to characterize it by NOT saying the CB complex was the thing that was complex... I'd rather say that 'geo-politics' are more complex... There are VERY FEW who are the real players, then there are their flunkies "the CB academics like Bernanke & Trichet"... What's SLOWER, these days, are the gears that the overlords might need to turn in order to shift the ever more complex geo-political landscape... If you're a Rothschilds, it's one thing to just fund France & GB mercenaries in the battle of Waterloo, misrepresent it at the London Stock Exchange (via horse courier), and turn the BOE ass face up... Today things are more complex...

Is that what the banks did? Banks by 2000 were a huge portion of the nations GDP, of the S&P, and had become extremely complex entities with derivatives that far eclipsed the size of the entire nations GDP.

Now, what did they do at that point? Did they see their size and become more patient when it came to profits and generating revenues or did they rather press the pedal even harder and look for profits at all costs, eventually driving themselves right into the ground?

Seems to me it was the latter


I agree 100% with your assessment... It was the 'latter'... But HOW & WHY is what's more important to me... IMO - the answer lies predominantly with Glass-Steagal... One might argue that placing a Bob Rubin/Larry Summers combo in the Clinton cabinet set the stage for the next phase of the operation... So all you have to ask yourself is... Accident or no?

cv said...

part 2

As I'm fond of saying, people are people, even the one's that want to rule the world, unless of course they are reptillian

ROR... I know that was just a subtle 'tease'... No, I'm not a tin foil hat wearing closet 'Anunnaki' worshiper... I'm just still your basic person (as far as I know), who just believes in both FREEDOM, and is willing to shed blood at the tree of freedom if necessary...

I don't want to pretend to know the history of where the idea of the New World Order comes from, but it's very clearly not a new one, at minimum this was mentioned by Biblical authors, so it's been around a really long time, and we see interesting enough that the popularity in the idea seems to ebb and flow, it's not a constant

Certainly... It's probably as old as dirt... But I still look at the symbols on the back of a dollar bill (A FEDERAL RESERVE NOTE), and I just wonder... In the end, my rational mind (or actually perhaps my HEDGING mind), won't let me dismiss these theories out of hand... Simply because I'd be WILDLY AGAINST being made a SLAVE (in any form)... When it comes to that, I'll 'shoot now & ask questions later'...

It begins with the authoritarian expressions that we started discussing way back at Andy's site. If people can't see them by now, people that live in the US, they are either totally out to lunch or perhaps have a comprehension problem. The socionomist would state that the fears over the NWO being expressed today, however we want to define that body, are in fact people expressing fear of authoritarian collectivism.

A 'socionimist' can think whatever they want to think (I hope by OBSERVATION)... Yeah - I suppose they could be described as "authoritarian collectivism"... But who is to say?... In a court of law, if a lawyer brought up that argument, the other lawyer would immediately 'object' on the grounds of 'conjecture' (and the objection would likely be sustained)...

As for me... I basically think that the greater majority of people ARE IN FACT 'out to lunch' (which includes many FORMER regulars on BR's, ANDY's, or even THIS blog)... Not simply because they are 'out to lunch' (per se)... But mainly due to their subjectivity to bouts of dogmatism, or more subtle forms of pre-disposition...

Not that I fear for their lives or well being mind you... It's more crass than that... You either "put up or shut up"...

God bless those who "put up"... God bless ALSO, those who "shut up"...

Therein lies the infamous 'HASH'

AmenRa said...

Wave principle in action?
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/greek-parliament-preparing-evacuation-tunnel-ahead-wednesday-vote-imf-bailout-general-strike

quote:

Needless to say, should the vote pass, and should the Parliament be blockaded, which it will be, the chances of politicians to leave general assembly unscathed may be compromised. Which is why we were not surprised to learn, courtesy of Covering Delta, that the Greek parliament has hired foreign workers to clean out the underground tunnel which leads from the parliament to the port of Piraeus (soon to be privatized) in order to avoid what some fear may be the popular lynchings of MPs by the disgruntled masses.

Andy T said...

ben22.

Love the socionomics stuff from prechter.

The speed limit thing jives intuitively as well...

Appreciate sharing that....

I need to think about it more over cocktails in the next hour.

Andy T said...

AR--

The Greek "situation" seems like a real f$*king disaster.

cv said...

@ben

re-reading that last expression (from the 9:31) post I made... I realize I probably didn't respond completely...

Frankly - I'm not really sure WHAT I think people are thinking (remember - I've been to over 50 countries on this planet... not just to collect pissing pharaoh statues, snap a few fotos & see a few landmarks, but to TALK & 'offer' to the locals my service [& to gladly accept their hospitality - which was their OFFERING & pride to me])...

Even after having spent more than a half a generation (timewise) doing that... I can't come to any conclusions or synthesis...

Gun to my head?

People (anywhere), TO ME... don't seem to 'live in fear'...

In fact... if you ask me... the LESS people have... the LESS they fear...

Which is a focal point of what bothers me most about THIS COUNTRY (after having witnessed all these various travails in my life)...

People in this country have been sold on the idea that you have to be:

- educated
- wealthy
- have nice things
- retire with comfort
- you nominate the rest... I could spend the next half hour on the list...

That's the Barry Ritholtz version of the world... (only he takes it a step further in that NOT ONLY must you possess those things - but to PROVE your worthiness, you need to also spread the GOSPEL of that ('his' gospel, of course... placing HIM on the throne)...

Fine... That works well in the Hamptons... But it wouldn't work in 'Marche' or 'Umbria' Italia... Certainly wouldn't work in Slovenia, Albania, or Moldova... & frankly, probably wouldn't work in West Virginia, Texas, or about 98% of the continental USA if I came out and graced you all with my map & crayon...

---

Bottom line? People aren't FEARFUL... Until you get in their face... & even at that point, a more 'basic' instinct ensues...

It's called FIGHT OR FLIGHT...

It's not complicated...

cv said...

@Amen

Needless to say, should the vote pass, and should the Parliament be blockaded, which it will be

See?... That's why CV gets never ending entertainment from ZH...

'Which it will be'

It's because CV doesn't mind coming up with definitive, or absolute statements (recall the various 5+ unit WRONG picks I made on NFL games last year)...

It's like a chess game...

At some point you have to make a move (which means - taking your greasy fingers off the fucking chess piece and leaving the MF on the square - for better or for worse)...

Jesus Tapdancing Christ... I believe if HALF the bloggers out there (who are interested in 'comment counts') were INSTEAD ARMY GENERALS...

Then... 100 years after the fact, we'd all be stuck in WWI trenches holdiong the Siegfried line somewhere in the north of France (or Belgium)...

But fuck the Belgians anyway...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=19fcN3VaXs4

Andy T said...

"In fact... if you ask me... the LESS people have... the LESS they fear..."

Someone once sang "Freedom is just another word for nothing left to lose..."

That'll be the quote for the next few days.

Andy T said...

"It's because CV doesn't mind coming up with definitive, or absolute statements (recall the various 5+ unit WRONG picks I made on NFL games last year)..."

As long as you're never betting more than you can stand to lose, then confidence is never a bad thing. Just always be aware of the ramifications of "being wrong."

Other than that caveat, I like absolute statements.

Andy T said...

BobbleHead BR highlighted an article on EBAY today and what killed it...

Funny, I had a conversation with my mom last week about how ebay should get involved in the Tuition/Auctioning business.

She's a professor in the California Community College system. She was bemoaning the long wait list she has for students to some "online" classes she's teaching this summer....talking about how the people are pleading with her to expand the class size, etc ...because they 'really need' this certain English credit.

I'm wondering why they the CC system doesn't auction off the last 25% of the class roster?

I'm thinking some kind of auction process whereby the college raises the price of the last 25% of the seats in increments of 10% until everyone on the wait list get's cleared.

i.e. Raise the tuition 10% and see who agrees to pay. If it's oversubscribed, raise it another 10%. Repeat until it's not oversubscribed.

You could probably double the revenue on the "important" classes and provide instant feedback to administration on the "value" of certain classes/teachers over others....

I'm sure in a certain class size of community college kids, there are 25% who could "pay their fair share."

cv said...

As long as you're never betting more than you can stand to lose, then confidence is never a bad

...that pretty much frames it more succinctly...

Andy T said...

Well, looks we ARE going to get a Game 7 ...

in HOCKEY.

Wish I cared about that sport....

cv said...

Weirdly... (apologies for misspellings because CV can't rightfully 'see' just now)...

I had some TIME to respond more thoroughly to some posts this evening...

But I went out to get a pizzaq... Came back & couldn't find my glasses...

Which puts CV in the henry Beemis catehory for the rest of the evening...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UAxARJyaTEA

I hope th link works... I can barely see anything at the moment...

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