AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: Do you feel lucky? Well do you?

Bearish long day (failed morning star formation). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing SMA(21), SMA(55) & SMA(89). Failing trend line (3/6/09-7/1/10). Tested and failed the 50.0% retrace (1309.01). Failed weekly 3LB mid. Failed monthly 3LB mid. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1331.10). QE2infinity. "JBTFD. Any questions?"

Bearish long day (so a bearish engulfing in a downtrend is not good). Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (72.70). Below all SMA's. Failed its 14.6% retrace (73.95). Failed weekly 3LB mid. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 75.76).

Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Failed its 23.6% retrace (18.28). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 15.45). Wants to escape the "no fear" zone.

Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (1577.40). Above all SMA's. Tested and held its 14.6% retrace (1539.32). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1556.40). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.

Bullish long day (so bullish engulfing in an uptrend is good). Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Tested and failed its 85.4% retrace (1.4640). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.4100).

Bearish long day (failed bullish harami). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing its SMA(144). No test of 0.0% retrace (40.93). Failing its 61.8% retrace (40.10). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 40.88).

Hammer day (didn't confirm bullish engulfing). Still below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace (29.48). Still below the upper trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 31.21).

Bearish long day (with long tail). Still above SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (114.83). Held its 61.8% retrace (98.93). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 111.41).

Doji day. Held SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below the upper trend line. Failing its 50.0% retrace (38.05). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 36.12). ""You want delivery! You can't handle the delivery!"

Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Failing its 61.8% retrace (48.75). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 50.10).

Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Held SMA(21). Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace (48.07). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 46.09).

Bearish long day. Tested and failed its 14.6% retrace (0.8226). Below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.8308).



AmenRa said...


The “get up and go” usually present in the small business sector after a recession “got up and went” somewhere. For the small business sector, this is the worst recovery on record. The recovery in the small business indicators looks especially anemic in comparison to the recovery after the 1980-82 recession period, the era with a depth most comparable to our most recent experience. The explanation for this is murky and complex, driven by the “seeds of destruction” planted in the 2003-07 expansion. When stock market bubbles burst, winners and losers are quickly identified and the economy moves on as the redistribution in wealth is efficiently imposed by the market. This time around, the process of declaring winners and losers is impeded by the complications of mortgage finance concocted by the financial market and the efforts of the government to prevent the redistribution required.

Houses are more widely held than stocks and the crash has impacted many more people and reached far down the income distribution, impacting attitudes as well as the ability to spend. Savers’ incomes have been impaired by the Fed’s low rate policies. The over-supply of houses, business facilities and inventory weigh heavily on new construction and until recently, production. Although much lower, the ratio of consumer debt to income is still high, families not actually in foreclosure are still saddled with high mortgage payments.

And then there’s Washington. Enough said, not enough room to detail the detrimental impact of the uncertainty created by “leadership” there.

AmenRa said...

Try not to get sick when reading.

QqQq said...

Thx AR, silver lining...hmmm, maybe a touch of grey

ya know, we just might be in a recession now, we never know until a few qtr's later, so say the experts.

QQQQ said...

42% through the year, natgas is outperforming SPX YTD, about to overtake gold.

AmenRa said...

Andy T said...

I need to look at "ol dog" Natty again....that market had been such a piece of shit for so long...

AmenRa said...
Banks May Need More Capital
Fed Weighs a Range of 8% to 14% of Assets; Among Highest in the World


The Fed is considering a stricter capital regime than many on Wall Street expected. A leading idea among Fed staff would require the riskiest institutions—those whose collapse could cause the most collateral damage—to boost capital levels 100% above the Basel international standards, while less-risky institutions would need a 20% bump. That would translate into firms putting aside between 8.4% to 14% of capital. The Basel agreement requires institutions to slowly increase capital cushions to 7% by 2019 from roughly 2% now.

Banks would have to boost their capital reserves using common equity—a stricter form of capital than many want to use because it dilutes the outstanding shares. Mr. Tarullo said other forms of capital, such as contingent capital, which allows banks to convert debt instruments into equity in an emergency, are insufficient and potentially subject to "political pressures" in times of stress.

Mr. Tarullo said the U.S. needs to move beyond the Basel requirements because they are narrowly tailored to an individual institution's ability to withstand losses and don't take into account the "high degree of risk correlation among large numbers of actors in quick-moving markets." Tougher capital standards are necessary, he said, because systemically important institutions have "no incentive to carry enough capital to reduce the chances of such systemic losses."

AmenRa said...

Andy T

Natty is close to a monthly 3LB reversal (4.761).

AmenRa said...

Those of you in the credit market what do you think about this:

Andy T said...


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