A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.
Creditcane™: Law of gravity…it's harder to push objects uphill. Just sayin'
SPXSpinning top day (body a little too big for doji). Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Held 1177.84 (the .0344 fibo from high). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1178.10). QE2infinity.
DXYBearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Failed the 76.4% retrace at 77.60. Still below 78.41 (.0557 from low). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 76.65).
VIXBullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above SMA(21). Below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 18.78). The "no fear" zone is in the rear view mirror.
GOLDBullish engulfing day. Back above SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of new 0% retrace. No daily 3LB (reversal is 1370.50).
EURUSDBullish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Back above its 61.8% retrace at 1.3899. Back above SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.4049).
JNKHanging man day again. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Trading range is between the Gann 3x1 and 4x1. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 40.54).
10YR YIELDSpinning top day. Failed to close gap. The 0.0% fibo retrace at 23.59 is the line in the sand. Back below the weekly 3LB rev (26.88) but above SMA(55). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.95).
DJ TRANS AVGSpinning top day. Holding above the upper trend line and all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 4779.72).
CRBSpinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Still failing the Gann 1x1. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 292.98).
XRTBearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 42.90). Black Fridays creeping earlier again. Holiday estimates may be too high.
42 comments:
I read this at SOH in response to a post about dollar action:
The currency to watch is the Yuan, and how it performs through the Yen. imo, the Yuan peg is a drag on upside in the dollar and shows up in Yen and Yen sovereign bond rallies.
The Yuan may be having convertibility problems and may wind up like the Thai Bhat after the LTCM disaster. During their real estate meltdown, the Thai Bhat was depegged from the dollar.
The same confusion can be seen in the IRX daily. Every contingency is being taken to prevent a negative repo or discount rate.
For the most part, the dollar bubble burst in 1985, though its elliot wave count is showing a failed down wave, so incomplete and may never see a capitulation.
For now, I assume that the CYB is a good proxy for the Yuan, and if it declines, then so does the discount rate, and the Yen rises:
stockcharts.com CYB weekly
http://tinyurl.com/256rst4
Since we were discussing my city's finances, the city budget update arrived in the mail today: "for the first time in more than two years, monthly retail and housing sales exceeded last year consistently for five months. Commercial property sales in the first four months of this fiscal year already exced the total for all of last yar. Hotel tax collections are up significantly, indicating that both business and personal travel is up. And, food and beverage sales taxes continue a slow growth. "
I think this is a great song:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QdaOvfDUJL8
To tell you the truth, I've said it before
Tomorrow I start in a new direction
I know I've been half-asleep
I'm never doing that again
I look straight at what's coming ahead
and soon its going to change in a new direction
Every night as I'm falling asleep
These words repeating in my head
A little must view from my main man Reggie Middleton.
Full disclosure: I think Max Keiser is annoying, but Reggie is worth it.
Go to 12:22 mark, and if you can spare 13 minutes, please listen to this man break it down.
I wish I could drop knowledge like that when people ask me about this shit...
http://boombustblog.com/reggie-middleton/2010/10/28/reggie-middleton-with-max-keiser-on-the-keiser-report-discussing-banks-fraudclosure-and-derivative-exposure/
And along that Guster note...
This whole Central Park show with Ben Folds is most irie:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ic7tAR4XB2c&feature=related
Not the Same
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l48E48A1bd4&feature=related
I-man -- thanks for the Reggie link. I know what you mean about "dropping knowledge," my lack of familiarity with the cold hard data prevents me from talking about this stuff too much with too many people.
Tata to the rescue: Summers didn't screw up everything in Allston apparently!
Harvard Business School (HBS) today announced receipt of a $50-million gift to fund a new building on its campus for executive education. At the same time, the University announced that it would convert one of the buildings it owns in Allston—the former WGBH facility on Western Avenue—into a Harvard Innovation Lab, meant to involve HBS, the School of Engineering and Applied Sciences (SEAS), students from throughout Harvard, and ultimately the surrounding community in entrepreneurship and the growth of small business ventures. Together, the new and renovated facilities signal changing approaches to campus growth and the ultimate plans for development in Allston.
Tata Hall, A New Center for Executive Education
The executive-education facility, expected to cost $90 million to $100 million, will be significantly underwritten by the gift from Tata Companies, the Sir Dorabji Tata Trust, and the Tata Education and Development Trust, philanthropic entities of India’s Tata Group. The Tata conglomerate owns 28 public companies with a combined market capitalization of $80 billion, according to the HBS news release; it is perhaps best known outside India for the $2,000 Tata Nano minicar. Ratan Tata, chairman of Tata Sons Ltd. since 1991, attended HBS’s Advanced Management Program (AMP), a core part of the school’s executive-education programs, in 1975. (The AMP program, launched in 1945, was the first such executive-education program worldwide, according to HBS.) The Tata Group owns the Taj Hotel in Boston, adding a business connection to Ratan Tata’s educational ties to the city. The gift, the largest from an international donor in HBS history, expands HBS’s capacity to offer campus-based executive education; overall, executive-education tuition generated $107 million in revenue in fiscal year 2009, according to HBS’s annual report—nearly one-quarter of total revenues, and in fact substantially more than tuition and fees for the flagship M.B.A. program.
"Jennifer said...
Since we were discussing my city's finances, the city budget update arrived in the mail today: "for the first time in more than two years, monthly retail and housing sales exceeded last year consistently for five months. Commercial property sales in the first four months of this fiscal year already exced the total for all of last yar. Hotel tax collections are up significantly, indicating that both business and personal travel is up. And, food and beverage sales taxes continue a slow growth. "
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
That jives with what I've been observing in the 'burbs of Houston, TX.
Been looking at houses the last few weekends--some properties we've looked at have moved within a few days.
Here's the thing, though...from a stock market perspective, the market has been EXPECTING and pricing in some kind of recovery for awhile now. So, we wonder what is "baked in?"
@jennifer
I liked that little thing you linked up there at (5:22)...
@Jenn
also... on this...
"my lack of familiarity with the cold hard data prevents me from talking about this stuff too much with too many people"...
---
I'm going to get ridiculed for saying this, but go ahead and say it anyway...
COLD HARD DATA, imo, is over-rated... The world doesn't function on DATA, it functions on humans (really - NATURES) reaction to data (or lack thereof)...
You've heard ben & I laugh about the term "on paper" (I use it every week when I do the NCAA & NFL football picks)...
There's an expression that says "well - that's why they play the game" whenever something that isn't SUPPOSED to happen, happens anyway...
That's one of my peeves with Ritholtz's seeming love affair with data and scientific evidence to back everything up (conveniently ignoring it at other times when it doesn't help support his POV on something)...
In teaching fitness, I've seen it all the time that the instructors who can, as you say, drop serious knowledge, aren't the best instructors...
Frankly - when talking "one on one" to people about fitness, CV has the ability to DROP SERIOUS KNOWLEDGE... But I rarely use the tactic... It's the effect of seeing peoples eyes glaze over when you do...
You learn, over time, to TALK TO PEOPLE instead of TALKING AT THEM...
Just a little anecdote...
The crazy thing about watching the Middleton clip is it seems to me these were issues discussed on this blog and others by many of us MONTHS and MONTHS ago.
Also, I do expect the 1200 gap to be filled however Daneric has a good line tonight:
"Of course, it could be the "top" is in already and the market is fixing to punish the majority to include bears who were bears but decided not to be just when it was ripe to be... "
@Jennifer
Further on the same case... You can see the phenomenon with Presidents...
Reagan & Clinton were liked because they basically gave you the feeling that they were TALKING TO YOU (not AT you)...
Neither Bush was very good at it (although GWB was able to get to a few because he actually "spoke" like them with his Texas drawl)... That's something that the Democrats NEVER understood or factored in... They couldn't understand how a seeming nimwit could attract any kind of support at all...
Obama - IMO - has been mis-classified along those lines... The MEDIA was in love with the idea (first that the Bush years were coming to an end, but also the idea of either getting one one the two "liberal wet dreams" to occur - having a female President, or a black President)... So Obama was "credited" with being a great orator (pre-election)...
The truth is, he was really just focusing on what people wanted to hear (and people got swept away with it)... In moving past Hilary, that was very easy because there were a lot of people who were already TURNED OFF by Hilary's seeming "elitist" personnae...
Getting past McCain was a piece of cake because McCain never had an "it" factor to begin with...
So what's happening now (after all the dust and smoke has cleared away), is that they SEE Obama isn't really talking TO THEM at all... He still reads from teleprompters, and all his responses to interviews seem packaged, and rather aloof...
He's beginning to be perceived as being "elitist"... It doesn't help that his wife isn't much better at it (only that's a more minor issue)...
It'll be interesting to see how that dynamic plays out over the next 2 years... He probably needs a makeover, but a leopard doesn't change spots when it comes to that issue...
If things ever get bad, he'll get crucified because people would not be willing to rally behind him...
Sometimes the only way to escape that is for the individual in question to begin receiving unfair treatment (kind of like Willem Wallace on the chopping block in the movie Braveheart where people start yelling for mercy)... Obama has already overspent his capital in that realm because, if anything, he's been historically unfairly LAUDED for dubious accomplishments...
My 2 cents...
Nice little chart based off the 2009 lows for BNK courtesy of ewtrendsandcharts.com:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_mNgsiAj3Xko/TMneobipx_I/AAAAAAAAECM/_3O_4BvEyTQ/s1600/bkx-28.png
Sentiment:
http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
Best Blog War Ever LOL
Sorry, back to my cave, just thought that was funny
Hows everyone
Sorry not been around much.
Feel better soon Bruce :)
Ben,
You realize you have to go back to Jan 2006 to find a lower bearish reading on the Sentiment Survey?
@Ben
There was a comment post in the OPEN THREAD that's at ZH right now where a guy was synthesizing various AAII readings...
Probably stuff you already have tucked into your mind already, but it was convenient to see it there in front of you for reference...
Bottom Line:
Ripe for correction, and very close to some major market top readings (such as 2007/8)...
But also at a level that has given several false readings in the past...
It's like what I was writing to Jennifer before about data...
The data isn't half as important as people's REACTION to data...
---
People try to handicap football games besed on offensive & defensive statistics and teams RECORDS...
WRONG
Theey should look at propensity of turnovers, field position stats, penalites, sacks, 3rd down conversions, home/away tendencies, invividual player matchups...
Stuff like that...
Everybody is wondering...
"What's wrong with Drew Brees"? this year... How come the Saints can't score?
Folks, it's NOT Drew Brees... it's the fact that the Saints defense isn't getting a 18+ turnover advantage (like they did last year)...
Last year, the offense only had to move the ball half a field (where the playbook was opened up because they were never pinned back deep)... Plus, they got a bunch more touches, and never had to play conservattive because they had a 14-0 lead in the first quarter...
Combine all those elements, and SURE, your options are limited, you get in more 3rd & longs, which makes team blitz you more...
You take more sacks, and get more holding penalties, lose field position, punt the ball...
Different game...
>> Folks, it's NOT Drew Brees
Damn *right* it's not my fault!
I was reading the rest of the Tata article, which linked to another article about another large gift from another Indian donor, Mahindra, to be used for some humanities center. Farther along in the Mahindra article was this gem (even fair Harvard is not immune...)
Nohria said the building, currently roofless and vandalized—its copper piping has been stolen, for instance—will require an estimated $15 million to $20 million investment, and that those funds, too, are in hand. Mayor Menino happily cited this evidence of the “University’s commitment to reactivating Western Avenue.” (The nearby Allston science center construction site is now silent, screened by new fencing and plantings.)
hey nic!
good to hear from you.
you been missed.
looking forward to you returning "full time"
Good night, folks. See you in the AM.
I am not long of people who are long of gold.
"Japan Output Slide, Deepening Deflation Point to Economic Slump"
"Japanese factory production slumped by more than double the pace economists forecast,"
Deflation?! Japan?! I'm totally caught off guard... just shocked.
GIB
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aiGd5N9pmSLA&pos=3
They really are caught in a self induced vicious cycle, arent they?
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=NKD&p=w1
versus this:
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=6J&p=w1
Its like they WANT to go sepuku...
Giants putting a major azz whuppin on Texas. Maybe that's why futures are down :-)
Its that crazy blackbeard the pirate pitcher they have...
Nikkei getting Godzilla'd, Yen had too much red bull, dollar pulling a David Blaine levitating act, oil's seeping back into the ground, sugar is sweeter.
Dulces sueños or better yet Dulces Sueños
Only in Chicago....we have a guy named Rich Whitney running for Gov (he's from the Green Party.) In some predominantly black voting districts, a ballot "typo" has his name written as "Rich Whitey." You can't make this stuff up.
And in the family humor category...as you may already suspect, things are fairly crazy in my household, especially when my spouse is the somewhat grown up version of Ralphie from the Christmas Story. So, if you've seen The Town with Ben Affleck you can really appreciate this...we saw it a few weeks ago, and my husband was moved to order himself one of the creepy nun masks that the bad guys wear when they rob banks. Only he didn't tell me. So, a bunch of packages arrived yesterday and were waiting in the front hall. I heard some rustling around in the front hall, but I really thought that my dear spouse was searching for the hidden halloween candy. My little guy (only 3 1/2) who just got over the trauma of believing that a monster really did live in his closet, went out to look for daddy and instead found a really scary nun monster in the front hall. Its gonna be a big caffeine day for me!
And, also completely off topic, I'm finally seeing a doctor about the month long excruciating heel pain I've been experiencing so I won't be around much today.
plantar fasciitis maybe
Yes, I think so. I've done all the streches I can find on line but the darn thing won't go away.
Jennifer,
you might be ignoring the structural issues and just treating your problem symptomatically.
@72bat (10:18p) - You may already know. If not, you can follow Nic on twitterand/or her blog/rss feed for more frequent FX etc. thoughts
2s2b
Bandaids, baby! We've got plenty here. They usually have Barbie or Hello Kitty on them though...
new thread
@Jenn
ben could be right... but it may be a bone spur which can get dug into the fascia or tissue & inflame the area...
Also, red wine. But not until after the wee ones are either in bed or scared out of their wits.
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