AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: When I appear I cause damage to all markets.

SPX
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Well below SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1225.85). Still below weekly 3LB midpoint. Almost tested weekly 3LB reversal (ruh roh). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and passed the 23.6% retrace at 78.72 and well above SMA(55). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 78.22).



VIX
Shooting star day (at the SMA(55)). Midpoint above EMA(10). Below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 22.58). Snuck out of the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Bullish short day. Still above SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). New 0% retrace has been holding. No daily 3LB (reversal is 1403.20).



EURUSD
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Closed below its 50.0% retrace at 1.3514. Back below SMA(55). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.3649).



JNK
Bearish LONG day. Now below SMA(55) & SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing the Gann 4x1. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 40.30). Closed further below its weekly 3LB reversal price.



10YR YIELD
Spinning top day. Gap shut. The 0.0% fibo retrace at 23.59 is holding. Still above SMA(89). Held its 23.6% retrace (27.49). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.84).



CRB
Bullish long day (Failed to confirm hammer but held weekly 3LB reversal). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below SMA(21). Held the Gann 2x1. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 315.25).



XLF
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Closed below the SMA(89). Actually below all SMA's now. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 14.23).



HYG
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Closed below 61.8% retrace. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 89.82).

LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Bond Report 11.23.10

A pre-holiday risk-off day in the bond market? Profit taking by HFs sated on QE2 gains? Liquidation by the same HFs who were long EEM and were beaten with a massive stick today? KJ selling high yield bonds from the North Korean SWF? Or was it Big Stevie or his many progeny dumping some junk to raise cash for an escape from Stamford in black helicopters? We shall find out soon enough.

Treasuries really didn't rally much AT ALL, given the impending collapse of Ireland, Portugal and the entire Western hemisphere and KJ posturing atop nuclear warheads aimed at the very Seoul of South Korea. So we are inclined to think this was a bit of risk dumping ahead of the holiday by those bargain hunters who were shopping last time HY was being discarded. We think they will be back when they see the results of the next lousy Treasury auction... if not sooner.

Corpies: LQD 0.05%; AGG 0.10%; JNK -1.39; HYG -1.37;
Govies: TLT 0.50%; IEI 0.14%; TIP 0.04%
Hedgies: TBT -0.92%

We are fading this spread widening trade. We added to our HYG position and we added to our short of the long bond today.

When keeping it real goes wrong...