Weekend Edition - Week 2 NFL Picks

CV's 2010 Results (updated from this weekend)

NCAA Picks: 5-5-1

NCAA (unit picks differential): +2

NCAA 2010 Total: 5-5-1 (+$150)

Week 1 NFL (all games): 7-7-2 (+290)

Week 1 NFL (unit picks): +4

NFL 2010 TOTAL: (+$290)

Saturday September 18, 2010 - Selected NCAA Picks

pick in BOLD CAPS

East Carolina at VIRGINIA TECH (-20) - 3 units - (correct +$300) 

Marshall at BOWLING GREEN (+3) - 1 unit (correct +$100)

Nebraska at WASHINGTON (+3) - 1 unit (incorrect -$110)

ucf at BUFFALO (+7.5) - 1 unit (incorrect -$110)

HOUSTON (-4) at ucla - 1 unit (incorrect -110)

Totals NCAA: 2-3-0 (+70)

Sunday September 19, 2010 - NFL SCHEDULE - (Week 2)

EARLY GAMES

Pittsburgh Stealers (1-0) at Tennessee Flaming Thumbtacks (1-0) (1:00 EST)
Line: Thumbtacks by 5.5
(incorrect -$330)

Pittsburgh's defense is back in business & healthy again... Matt Ryan is a good QB, known for making good decisions, and he could never get much going last week because all his "go to's" were being taken care of...

If there's one thing that Pittsburgh does well on defense, it's "assignments"... Each player knows his responsibility, handles it, and the result is pretty good... You have to have this type of discipline when you go against Chris Johnson & Tennessee...

It's impossible to contain Chris Johnson. The Raiders, who have a pretty good run defense, did their best until Johnson broke free for a 76-yard score in the second half. Dating back to last year, Johnson now has 12 consecutive 100-yard rushing performances...

Before I get to Pittsburgh, and what they have to do on offense, I want to point out that this is kind of a "revenge" situation... Two years ago, the Steelers won the Super Bowl and therefore "hosted" the NFL kickoff game on Thursday night... The game was against these same Titans... The Steelers won 13-10 in a fairly tightly contested game (where they lost Troy Polamalu)...

Last year, many had "high hopes" for the Titans (who started the previous season undefeated, before losing late in the regular season to the Steelers)... Nevertheless, the Titans went into playoffs (2008) as the #1 seed, only to get knocked off by the Baltimore Ravens in a very physical game... Baltimore had just won a road playoff game in Miami, and after beating Tennessee in Nashville, and thoroughly beat up on both sides of the ball, went in to Pittsburgh and finally relented in the 4th quarter... 

The Steelers went on to the Super Bowl, beat the Cardinals, and the rest is history... 

Many though, had the TITANS as the pre-season choice to go to the Super Bowl in 2009... They lost on the road, in Pittsburgh, in game one, and subsequently went into a slide that took them to 0-6 (ending with an embarrassing loss to the Patriots, in the snow) before they finally righted the ship... 

Much of that was going back to Vince Young at QB (and getting Cortland Finnegan back at cornerback)... But the Young-Johnson combo is something that they discovered... WORKS... It's after Young came in that CJ began to rack up the yards... You can't completely focus on stopping Johnson, because Young can make plays and move the chains with his feet... The Titans went 8-2 with the Young-Johnson combo...

That is a "different" dimension, that the Titans bring into this game versus last year... Also, remember, Big Ben was behind center for that game, and he's still out for this game, on the road, with a suspension...

Dennis Dixon is fairly athletic, but he still got sacked three times, including once when Atlanta sent a three-man rush... He doesn't tend to make good decisions under pressure...

This figures to be a much more pressing problem at Tennessee because left tackle Max Starks is out, meaning the inept Jonathan Scott will be starting across the "karate kicking" Flozell Adams...

The Steelers were pouring everything they had into winning last week and getting the chance to start the season 2-2 (they play Tampa Bay & Baltimore in coming weeks)... Tampa Bay figures to be a win, but the Ravens are going to be tough... All pre-season, sportswriters were drumming the beat that if the Steelers started 1-3, which was possible, they could kiss their playoff chances goodbye...

As far as going 2-2 is concerned, I doubt this is a game that even THEY have circled on their calendar as one they want to put max effort into... It's like a tennis player who has a set lead, and finds himself down 2 breaks in the 4th set... You don't mind tanking a couple of games to save your energy for the 5th set...

That's just how I think, so you can see that covering a 5.5 point spread might not be that difficult as it seems for the TITANS... I'll only lay (3 units) on it tho, because the public seems to be siding that way as well...

Philadelphia Dog Killers (0-1) at Detroit Unemployment "Lines" (0-1) (1:00 EST)
Line: Dog Killers by 6
(correct +$100)

Shaun Hill, filling in for the injured Matt Stafford does not seem to be inspiring much confidence with the oddsmakers, or betting public...

The book on Hill is that has a weak arm, but he is a veteran quarterback who makes smart decisions. He did OK with the 49ers, who pretty much had less offensive weapons than the Lions do now... Michael Crabtree was holding out, remember... And let's face it, Crabtree still isn't Megatron... The Lions will need a QB that makes good decisions against an Eagles team that does not want to slip to 0-2, and is likely to come at them with a lot of blitz packages on defense...

Likewise, the Eagles are coming into this game using their backup QB... In this case Michael Vick (who a lot of itchy finger fantasty football owners picked up last week because of the decent personal stats he put up against Green Bay after Kevin Kolb went down...

The main difference is this... Vick is a huge change from the game preparation for Kolb... The Packers weren't ready to adjust on the fly (and Vick put up numbers)... Did he win the game though?

Answer: No...

That's kind of the book on Vick... A lot of athletic talent, but he'll end up letting you down in clutch situations... Otherwise, his NFL career would have probably ended up different...

The Lions will come at him with Ndamukong Suh in the middle collapsing the pocket over the replacement center for Jamaal Jackson (who is out for the year)... Eagles fullback Leonard Weaver is also now out for the year, so this is going to have to come down to Vick doing a lot of things on his own...

If he tries too hard, it's bound to end up in a few interceptions...

Most people see this contest as Michael Vick being able to do something and cover the point spread here... I don't... I'll take the LIONS and the points for (1 unit)...

Buffalo "Rods up their asses" (0-1) at "G"'s (1-0) (1:00 EST)
Line: Packers by 13
(correct +$100)

If you watched the interview with Aaron Rodgers after last weeks win in Philadelphia, he wasn't too pleased with his performance... He basically said they didn't do ANYTHING right on offense... 

Philadelphia isn't the easiest place in the world to win a football game on the road, so that should tell you something... Green Bay isn't taking games lightly and probably has something to prove... Usually, I'm wary of games like this... Sometimes, "out of division", or "out of conference" games make the FAVORED team unfocused... But it's too early in the season to be unfocused... The Packers are already a game up on their division rivals (Vikings) after week one, and I'm sure they want to keep the pressure on...

A possible setback is that Ryan Grant is out for the year with severe leg and ankle injuries... The "flip side" to this is that teams tend to be EXTRA focused when one of their key players goes down... The thing about Grant though is that he's really not all that awesome of a player... In fantasy football, if he fell to you, you were always like... "Oh well - I guess I have to take Ryan Grant"... His handcuff, Brandon Jackson, isn't really a step down in quality in terms of what he's likely to produce... 

The Bills can't stop the run, so Green Bay should be able to control this ball game...  They have a decent secondary, but the Packers simply have too many weapons... The Packers should be able to score at will this Sunday. 

The Bills never know what they're doing on offense... I'm not going to waste a lot of words trying to come up with positives because there aren't many... Although I usually like to take points, I like the PACKERS to cover this hefty point spread... (1 unit)...

 Miami Dolphins (1-0) at Minnesota "YIKE"ings (0-1) (1:00 EST)
Line: "YIKE"ings by 5.5
(correct +$500)

How are the Vikings going to get up for this game? I mean, you KNEW they put lock, stock, and barrel (emotionally) into beating the Saints in the opener... They had all winter, spring, and summer, to stew over this one... And they come away with an "L"?... 

I suppose now, the "good news is that Brett Favre will have 10 days to prepare to improve on his 15-of-27 for 171 yards, one touchdown and an interception beginning... I said this last week, the Vikings have a "murder" schedule to start 2010 and this is supposed to be one of the EASY games... 

The Vikings are totally out of synch... Adrian Peterson totaled 87 yards on 19 carries vs. the Saints, but Miami figures to be much tougher... The Dolphins limited C.J. Spiller, Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch to 38 yards on 14 carries in Buffalo...

The Dolphins can play some trickery on offense, and can run the rock as well as anyone... I basically don't expect this game to get out of hand either way unless "turnovers" play a factor (a distinction which usually hinders the Vikings more than the Dolphins)...

In a way, this game mirrors many other WEEK 2 games that have happened in past years... A team that went deep into the playoffs, with high hopes for the current year, gets devastated in the first week of the season (then "mails it in" in week 2 before they wake up and find themselves with their backs against the wall)...

Last years version was the Tennessee Titans... This year, so far, the candidates are the Vikings, Cowboys, Jets, & Colts... Let's see who sinks to the BOTTOM of the HEAP first...

The Dolphins aren't getting much support from the public because most expected them to demolish the Bills last week (and instead they seemed rather flat)... IMO - This represents an opportunity to pick up a bargain on the DOLPHINS for a (5 unit) play...

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati BenGIRLS (0-1) (1:00 EST)

Line: Ravens by 1.5

(incorrect -$440)

To a stat-meister, this might appear to be a great place to take the Bengals... Stat-meisters were green light shades on their hats and marvel about how the Bengals have covered in 5 out of the last games vs. the Ravens, and how Carson Palmer threw for 345 yards last week against the Patriots...

I'd prefer to look at it this way... Last week, Palmer was 9 for 16 for 56 yards (and a pick six) going into halftime against a pedestrian Patriots defense... He managed all those yards when the Pats went to "prevent" in the 2nd half because of the big lead they already had on the scoreboard... 

Instead, Joe Flacco, had to gun his way out of hostile New York (converting numerous 3rd & longs, under pressure, against, probably, THE best pass defense in the NFL)...

Cincinnati, for some reason, also had trouble stopping Kevin Faulk, Fred Taylor, & company, so imagine what Ray Rice & Co. may be able to do...

If you go back a couple of years, many of the times the Bengals had success against the Ravens were due to scheduling peculiarities... Ravens on a "short week" playing a Thursday night with 3 days prep, etc...

Also, I will say this many times until it sinks in... The Ravens have an OFFENSE now... The win on Monday Night may have looked UGLY, but it was against one of the elite defenses in the NFL, in THEIR house, playing their first game in a new stadium, and surrounded by hype... Don't expect to see 'small lines' like this on the Ravens often in 2010... So take them while you can... And take the RAVENS for (4 units)...

"The Bears are who they thought they were" (1-0) at the team that AIN'T (0-1) (1:00 EST)
Line: Cowboys by 7.5
(incorrect -$0)

Take my advice, Cowboys, enjoy your home opener here against the half-hapless "Mike Martz & the traveling All-Stars & Motor Kings", because you're certainly NOT going to be playing a game here next February if you don't get your offensive line issues taken care of... PRONTO...

That wish may actually be granted as it's been reported that left guard Kyle Kosier and right tackle Marc Colombo could be back for the Chicago game... They REALLY need Colombo in there asap... Versus the Redskins, former Rams coach Jim Haslett (now DC for DC) knew what to do on every down against former Ram reject Alex Barron... When Barron is in the game, there are more flags on the field than the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games...

You mean to tell me that the Cowboys ditch "karate kick" master Flozell Adams, only to replace him with a "Randy Orton" chokehold master?

Even if these additions help Dallas, they'll still have to get their act together... Newly acquired Julius Peppers (Bears) may decide to add Tony Romo to his hit list this week after sending Matt Stafford to the sidelines for 8 weeks in week 1... 

Romo is a bit more mobile, but it remains to be seen how much production the Cowboys might be able to count on if the bears shut down the Cowboys as they did the Lions last week...

For da Bears... This amounts to WEEK 2 of the Mike Martz "russian roulette" extravaganza against Jay Cutler... Last week, Cutler managed to escape the chamber with the bullet in it, but there's a chance for this game to devolve into a "sack-o-rama"...

I hate both of these teams at the moment... Dallas will only get my respect when they settle their offensive line issues, and the Bears... Well, I'll get back to you on that one... I'll flip a coin here and side with the COWBOYS (only because the public "hates" them for the embarrassing loss in Washington)... A whopping (0 units)...

The "like who fucking cares?" Super Bowl (1:00 EST)
Line: Panthers by 3.5
(incorrect -$0)

I haven't received the latest word, but the chances are that Jimmy Clausen may get the start at QB here for the Panthers as Matt Moore missed a couple of practice days to injury...

It's no use going into a lot of words with uncertainty that abounds... Clausen may actually be a better option than Moore, and sometimes teams try to protect young rookies...

Tampa Bay has has a dynamic young receiver (the "other" Mike Williams - from Syracuse)... If Josh Freeman's thumb is healed), Williams could have the day Hakeem Nicks did vs. the Panthers last week...

With all the question marks, and with the spread only reflecting the "normal" home team advantage... I'll go ahead and "pick" the BUCS here... But offer (0 units)...

Consolation game for teams failing to qualify for "WFT cares Super Bowl")
Line: Browns by 2
(incorrect -$110)

It depends on where you're from as to whether you tuned in to watch the KC/SD "2nd" Monday Night Football Game... 

If you were on the East Coast, you were probably bored out of your mind (and didn't care - unless you had a few fantasy starters needing to fill some points)... If you were from Kansas City, you were probably AT THE GAME getting drenched... If you were from San Diego, you were probably watching with some kind of fancy wine spritzer or Zima in your hand (but by the end of the night had switched to hard whiskey)...

The KC fans at Arrowhead Stadium were awesome... Last week I published that while I "liked" the Chargers to cover, I couldn't lay any units on the game because of the sketchy line movements... Vegas was already IN POCKET from the games on Sunday, and I couldn't, for the life of me, figure out why Vegas was luring more $$ to be bet on the Chargers while 80% of the money was already going that way...

Once the game started, it was evident... The Chiefs haven't hosted a feature game like this in awhile (and their fans truly came thru for them)... Add to that the fact that it rained steadily all night and put a damper on Phil Rivers aerial weapons & Darren Sproles footing...

KC also managed to do some things that looked like an improvement on defense (which is better than outright SUCKING as they've done for the past few years)...

However, let's not get too carried away with the success of the Chiefs on Monday Night... They still have Matt Cassel at QB (who put up a whopping 68 yards passing)... They really couldn't move the football, and scored all their points by virtue of a 94 yard punt return for a TD, a costly fumble by rookie Ryan Mathews of SD (which lead to a TD), and one breakaway run by Jamaal Charles (who inept Todd Haley refuses to feature)... 

The Chiefs only ran 3 plays in SD territory for 3 quarters...

It's hard to say the Browns were more impressive vs. Tampa Bay (but hey, they were VISITORS, and Tampa Bay didn't even manage to sell out it's home opener)... Nobody wants to put any money in Malcom Glazers pocket even with his problems with his creditors...

This game is probably going to end up being what you expect it to be... Who are the Browns to be laying points to any team not named the "The Chiefs" (oh wait - they're actually playing the Chiefs)... It's a game between two crappy teams... I'll go with the crappy team that THE PUBLIC still thinks is crappy, instead of the one that THE PUBLIC is misreading because of one glorious rainy night in KC where the fans were on hand probably because THE ROYALS game across the parking lot was rained out... I'll take the BROWNS for (1 unit)...

Arizona Cardinals (1-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-1) (1:00 EST)

Line: Falcons by 6.5

(correct +$200)

In his career in the Georgia Dome, Matt Ryan has 17 touchdowns, nine interceptions, a completion percentage of 63.6 and a YPA of 8.1... It's not quite so good on the road (21 touchdowns, 16 picks, a completion percentage of 57.5 and a YPA of 6.6)... Add to that the fact that he was facing a healthy James Harrison, LaMarr Woodley, & Troy Polamalu last week at Heinz Field...

OTOH - Derek Anderson got to start his Arizona career vs. the hapless Rams... His "box score" numbers looked fairly decent, but in this dome, I expect him to be pressured into throwing more of his errant passes around the field... The Falcons D got to Dennis Dixon 3 times last week...

Another thing to consider is a favorite angle of mine... West Coast teams playing a 1:00PM game in the Eastern time zone often get caught napping... There's value here in taking the host FALCONS for (2 units)...

AFTERNOON GAMES

(picks will be published Sunday Morning)

St. Louis Rams (0-1) at Oakland Raiders (0-1) (4:05 EST)

Line: Raiders by 4

(incorrect -$0)

Most of the time I like to get the lay of the land in the EARLY GAMES before I committ too heavily on making AFTERNOON calls... This is especially true when I'm not particularly in love with any of the lines...

The line of this game "should" have been something like 8 or 9 points... But the "scoreboard" didn't look too good on what should have been a tighter Ten-Oak game last week, and the Rams played better than expected with rookie QB Sam Bradford in his first start...

The bottom line is that it's harder for a rookie QB to go on the road, and having to face Nnamdi Asomugha ranging around isn't going to be easy...

All in all, I like this game to be fairly tightly contested... It's not usually a good idea to "lay" points with the Raiders, so I'm going the side with the RAMS, but not fall into the trap of betting on a rookie QB on the road the first time... (0 units)...

Seattle Seahawks (1-0) at Denver Broncos (0-1) (4:05 EST)

Line: Broncos by 3.5

(correct +$100)

I had both the Broncos (and 49ers) last week for multiple units and both teams failed me... When that happens, I have to take a step back and re-assess what I believed about these teams... Maybe I simply underrated the Seahawks & Jags, but the Broncos were in that game until the end, and apparently, there were communications problems with the 49ers offense... 

If nothing had happened last week, I think the Broncos would be favored by more points here, so I think this amounts to an opportunity to squeak by and lay LESS... The public seems to like the Seahawks, so I'll take the BRONCOS for (1 unit)... I'll consider making it a MULTI-UNIT bet if Vegas finds themselves behind in the early games...

Houston Texans (1-0) at Washington Redskins (1-0) (4:15 EST)

Line: Houston by 3

(push +$0)

Another puzzler... The public is getting behind Houston in a big way after taking down Indy, but the overall effect is somewhat muted here because the Redskins took down Dallas... 

You also have, basically, the 'Shanihans' here... I'd tend to take father over son (at least the first time around)... It's hard for me to place any units on it because there's too many gaps... REDSKINS for (0 units)...

New England Patriots (1-0) at New York Jets (4:15 EST)

Line: Patriots by 2.5

(incorrect -$330)

I spoke of this game last week (before the jets even played their first game)... You have to think that Tom Brady has had this game circled on his calendar for a long time...

I'm sure that the Jets are going to get things going at some point this year, but I really think all the OFF SEASON hype they surrounded themselves with is really coming to bear on the beginning of their season...

Believe it or not... It's best to LAY LOW & KEEP QUIET in the NFL... Wins are hard enough as it is without painting a bulls eye on your rear end... Worse for the Jets, they're going to have to travel to South Florida and play the Dolphins next week...

Could be a rough start to the season for this crew... Revis or no Revis, I don't think the Patriots are going to cut them any slack... I'll take the PATRIOTS for (3 units)...

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-0) at San Diego Chargers (4:15 EST)

Line: Chargers by 7

(correct +$0)

The Chargers looked like DOG FOOD last week (vs. the Chiefs)... Much of it was because of the bad weather, and the amped up crowd in Arrowhead Stadium that hadn't hosted a Monday Night game in years...

But the Chargers are going to have to sort some things out... 

It's hard for a team to travel cross country to play a football game, but the Jags might appreciate playing a game in front of some actual fans (as their home games are usually half empty)...

Not really a game I can sink my teeth into until one of these squads shows some interest in playing football... Just for a HOOT, I'll take the CHARGERS and lay (0 units)...

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

New York Football Giants (1-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-1) (8:20 EST)

Line: Colts by 6

game writeup in thread

(correct +$0)

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

New Orleans Saints (1-0) at San Francisco 49ers (0-1) (8:30 EST)

Line: Saints by 5.5

game write-up in Monday Night thread

(correct +$100)

Week 2 NFL (all games): 8-7-1 (-$110)

Week 2 NFL (unit picks): +0

2010 NFL (all games): 15-14-3

NFL 2010 TOTAL: (+$180)