A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection
Creditcane™: Wee, wee, weeeee!
SPXBearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below the trendline (3/6/09-7/1//10). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1075.63). QE2infinity.
DXYBearish short day. Held the SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 82.64).
VIXHigh wave day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still holding below weekly 3LB mid but above monthly 3LB mid. Now above the SMA(89) and the SMA(144). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 25.73).
GOLDBullish short day. Too much "hair" for hanging man. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still holding onto gains. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1225.00).
EURUSDSpinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested the 23.6% retrace (passed). Still failing the 4x1 Gann. It's above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.2752).
JNKBearish short day. Did not hold the 61.8% retrace. Still failing to close gap. Still above the SMA(89) and the SMA(144). Midpoint now below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.72).
10YR YIELDSpinning top day. First gap is the main resistance. New gap is additional resistance. There is a new 0.0% fibo retrace at 24.79 since the previous one at 25.72 didn't hold. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 27.81).
AUDJPYBearish long day. Way below the SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed the 23.6% retrace at 75.5696 but held the 14.6% retrace at 74.1352. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 79.1783).
SLVBullish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Closed at the 76.4% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 19.12).
DJ TRANS AVGBearish long day. Failed the trendline and the SMA(233). Below the SMA(55) and SMA(144). Midpoint below EMA(10). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 4236.96). Also below weekly 3LB reversal price.
108 comments:
CV. Fantasy Football. Let's make the magic happen. We're running out of time. I'm on my 7th mock draft this week. I'm jones'ing for some FF.
C'mon Man!
AT-
a very good post of yours at TBP re celebs/billionaire calls-
you and I are on the same page
I'm ready as well. Can we do a draft before 9/7 though?
@Andy T/Manny
Yeah guys... Looks like we'll have to draft on a weeknight though...
After 8PM EST Mon or Wed - Friday... Or, after 9PM Tuesday...
Can you guys give me your preferences...
Plus... I think we need a player ore two more...
Anyway... I'll set up the league on Yahoo and give you guys the LOG IN...
check this out, via the latest Socionomist:
“Protecting Cyberspace as a National Asset Act of 2010,” introduced by U.S. Senator Joe Lieberman on June 10. The law would empower the president to “shut down the Internet, disconnect its networks, and force
web sites, blogs, providers, search engines and software companies to ‘immediately comply with any emergency measure or action.’” The Baltimore Chronicle describes the proposed law as a “kill switch for the Internet.”5
@cv: I'm flexible at this point but have plans next Tuesday. Will be at Target Field for Twins-Tigers. Other than that, I should be free.
As usual, ratings agencies a day (or many) late and a dollar short....pretty comical if you ask me.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/08/s-cuts-irelands-rating-outlook-negative.html
Nicole Elliott is back from holiday and talking about the yen today
doing a mock draft tonight, I can hardly contain myself.
also- CV
where is the C'mon Man post-
C'mon Man!
All right look...
Just to get this started... I'm going to publish the LOGIN for you guys who want to get in...
Specifically invited are:
AHAB
ANDY T
BEN
JEFF
CV (in already)
CFA (last years champ)
MUTT
We need 3 more players... This year is going to be a $100 entry (so pony up)...
Others (2small2bail?) can log in and join, but anyone joining the league will be expected to post $100 and play for the prize (or your sign-up will be booted before the draft)...
I've tentatively set the draft for next Tuesday, AUGUST 31... but that can be changed...
I need 10 little Indians first...
Here's the SIGN-UP (click on link)...
http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/f1/register/tos?league_id=585265&password=taordiebitchez
@ahab
My post this morning was C'MON MAN...
Problem was... Suzy Kolber was sitting in 4 Chris Berman... and it was the worst C'Mon Man in the history of C'Mon Man...
Had to skip it therefore...
I wonder if we can recruit folks like wunsacon, Mike in Nola and other old guard TBP posters?
I-Man is invited too...
But his cheap rasta ass has to come up with a tight lipped Ben Franklin first, or it's off to the Carolina League...
@Jeff
I'll let you do that if you want...
I kno I have 6 "committed" money players thus far...
We need PLAYAZ this year...
BTW people... Mannwich was "2nd" last year... So I know HE's in with his hands so close to the Lombardi!
I'd like to get AmenRa in here...
Amen? you ready to face the fire?
Last year was SO CLOSE...
The difference between 2nd & 6th place was, like, shaving fractions of points each game...
This is a COMPETITIVE league...
Be ready for GLORY... or HEARTBREAK...
Beginners guide to pit trading hand signals
@Nic
BinT has been keeping us up to date with the POTUS hand signals...
It's a FANTASTIC VOYAGE
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vNWhmkNIIwk&feature=search
Well, what do we know? We know that Big John and Big Dave have gotten markedly more pessimistic recently...Dave with the new depression and John with the new coming dollar crisis. We know that Greece is dying by staying in the Euro. We know that Ireland has been downgraded this week. We know that the seers who have been expecting this are getting more pessimistic. The muddlethroughers who are in charge seem to be unable to find tea leaves, much less read them.
We think that Berny and Krugy think one of two things. Not enough time has passed or not enough money has been spent. We think, honestly, that Obama is lost at sea.
We feel like this has a long way to go. We had 10 year cd's from PNC bank at 7.15% come due last week. We reinvested them today at 3.2% (Discover)...(sigh)..
I thought this was interesting:
British Nightclubs Shut as Economy Forces Revelers to Stay Home
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-24/british-nightclubs-shut-as-economy-forces-revelers-to-stay-home-with-booze.html
Seriously, have any of you read where any democrat (not under indictment) has asked POTDUD to campaign for them? This guy makes BushII look like Einstein...
@bruce
Whadda ya say doc...
Wanna pony up a FRANKLIN and put your peyton & Colts up against the boyz?
CV,
Probably not enough time...but I will take you up on the brackets for the next March Madness. Count me in on that...
I'm in.
2010 Team Name: The Bo Jacksons
Later...Nikkei under a nine spot...amazing.
Nic,
9:43
ha, nice!
ditto McF's 10:11 post.
Anybody catch BR on Fast Money? I haven't read anything over there in a while...stunned by his overall bullishness. I thought the arguments that no one was underwater in their investments forever...if you held on for 20 or 30 or 40 years they would come back was pathetic.
@Jennifer
BR bullish?
He "posted" today that he was 80% cash and expected 950...
So if he was on FAST MONEY (and spewing positive)... He was doing the MSM/ILUVPOTUS "boogaloo"...
...and THAT is the TRUTH...
Well...I missed the first part of the interview, but it seemed bullish to me.
@Jennifer
Here... Need HELP... Here's how FOS that is... "bullish"...
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/08/celebs-billionaires-economic-warnings/#comments
---
We have been mostly cash since May 5th (as much as 100% then, 50% cash in June). We are now over 80% cash, and are looking for a move down towards 950 on the SPX. So what both of these commentators are saying actually matches both our positioning and our perspectives (as well as this AM’s futures).
The POODLE POLICE ought to get their boa in a ruffle along shortly to defend that...
jennifer-
BR is delusional- not buying into the whole depression idea-
in Japan- they are still sucking wind- a whole generation gone by-
40 years? please- that's two generations-
obviously BR is not buying into the concept that in the end we're all dead
Of course... the poodle police have their own agenda...
That is... POST on "TWSWB's" site in order (with links to their own blog) to try and whore comments their way...
@ahab
BR is just trying to suck himself up to an invitation to Martha's Vineyard...
The Hamptons don't cut it anymore...
CV-
BR is short term bearish but- from everything he has said- long term bullish-
but of course that is reinforced by his belief in the current administration-
I actually like the dude- he can be be pretty funny at times- but-
a truth seeker lays his baggage down before trying to determine the truth
good evening! Nenner and Rosenberg video clips in case anyone wants to watch.. I think Jennifer gave us the recap on Nenner earlier:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1573819915&play=1
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=1573724726&play=1 Note: Rosenberg starts at minute 6:50 or so.
@ahab
I used to (like him)...
The the less ACTUAL TRUTH you tell... The less I like you...
Capital is being spent mighty quickly these days...
I liked tonight's wrap.. "too much hair" and wee, wee, weeeee! altho.. that creditcane is beginning to make me dizzy : )
I hate to agree with CV @ 11:00 but the word schmoozer comes to mind of late.
@ahab
Tell me what I'm supposed to like...
- As for "market calls"... I could pretty much tune in to HARRY WANGER and do about as well...
- or Doug Kass, for that matter
- Politics? Let's not go there...
When I'm in the market for a 600HP V-12, or a new boat though... I'll know where to go...
Otherwise... All I see a bunch of BLOG chumps who post on his site doing the "yes sir" routine (with homepage link), to sap attention towards their own invalid ideas...
Not for me...
This summer I challenged TWSWB many times on the blog (nary a link to SC, ever)...
But it seems TWSWB doesn't like people challenging his ideas... So I'm gone...
I'll leave it to you all to battle his greatness...
@karen
Thanks for the support... I promise (notwithstanding my 11:08), that I'll leave it alone now...
Bottom Line: Color me VERY SKEPTICAL on what passes as the TRUTH these days...
CV-
BR looks at this as a typical recession- all the same rules from previous recessions apply-
that is where he is making an error in his judgment-
and thus the silly things he says from time to time
I'll admit that he puts up some nice threads though...
So... READ IT... Then, use your own intellect to cut thru the BS...
nice thanks for the nenner clip
@ahab (11:11)
See... That's where I disagree...
I FRANKLY DON'T THINK HE THINKS THAT (it's a "typical recession")... So...
1) He's a FUCKING LIAR... And what do you do when made AWARE of a person that is lying through their teeth while looking you straight in the eye?... I know what I'd do...
2) He's actually DUMBER THAN A BOX OF ROCKS...
@karen
Thanks, my dear, for the NENNER...
I have to get myself off this BR thing...
Nenner must have an invisible little man sitting on his shoulder, he kept looking at him during that video, he's one of those madman brilliant guys I think, then there is the guy that just "takes things day by day" and doesn't want to get into picking targets for the DOW...buuut ya know, there are some stocks he'd still buy now and hold for 10, meh, 15 years...and never look back.
not sure what the hell he meant by that but I'm probably just overthinking it.
Also, Maria
GIB
CV-
well maybe- but from things he has said before- he thinks 950 as the end point on S&P-
I haven't heard him say otherwise- so in my mind he is thinking only a short term decline is in store-
not the inevitable decline that many of us think (me anyway) will occur
Nothing to see here... move along everyone.
I guess BR came up with that target from his "average bear market" slide, which I hate. Average all of the colors of the rainbow together and you get white,....does this describe your experience when you see one?
BR says that chart has been "pure money" since he put it out, but we've only seen the halfway point, we'll know in a few years how useful the remainder of that neat little graph was. Color me a skeptic that the "average" would be a real money maker in what may end up being the worst bear market of the last 100 years, or as RP thinks, in the last 300.
nightly jokes from our favorite prime time comedian:
Cramer praised the Treasury secretary for restoring the US banking system and creating “a system that, frankly, would withstand 1930s-like depression.” Cramer also called Geithner a “great spokesman” for the US’s economic agenda.
oh man, that's good stuff....
CV-
so your impression is that BR is much more bearish than he lets on?
that's interesting- if true- then I will anticipate him changing his story soon enough-
because all these "celebrity" traders want to be seen as infallible and as "winners"
oh wait, there's an encore:
It would have been easy for the US to slip into a “very serious depression,” Cramer said, but the country did not. The US suffered a “garden-variety depression,” is in a “re-recession moment” right now, but he’s confident the economy will rebound as long as these two men are steering the ship.
we're at the point of just making absolutely crazy terms up like re-recession moment, anything to say things aren't looking good, just a blip, a soft patch, only a
flesh wound?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKhEw7nD9C4
@ahab
"he thinks 950 as the end point on S&P-"
Well then he IS, in fact... Dumber than a box of rocks...
I'll parse this for anyone interested (flow chart wise)...
1. If 950 ends up being the ULTIMATE bottom (as BR might be suggesting)... Then we're heading STRAIGHT FOR hyperinflation after that...
Have you heard him discuss THAT as an afterwards?
If not... Then his "950" call is a HALF TRUTH... & a HALF TRUTH means you're a fucking liar...
So... The funds that he's trying to cull and manage under that premise? He's LYING to them...
2. He actually BELIEVES that equities stop at 950 and after that we get a "typical recovery"... In which case... He's a MORON... & he loses most of his clients money... (collecting his FEES along the way for as long as he can keep the CON going)... If that's the case...
3. He doesn't "actually" think 950 is the bottom, but he's using that as a base to "tranquilize" his FUSION clients into thinking that all is well WHILE HE COLLECTS HIS FEES... (In which case, he's a LIAR & a THIEF)...
4. CV is wrong... and the S&P actually hits 950... bounces (which I suppose it would for a few months anyway)... Then a "HOPE & CHANGE" recovery ensues and by 2020 we have a whole country full of people enjoying their retirements in spacious 5-10k sq. foot homes, spewing tons of CO2 into the atmosphere, & police & fire pensioners living off their 100K per year pensions (in golf club communities) while their ASSET VALUES keep them in a lifestyle of "doing nothing" while their INVESTMENTS pay them off... If that happens, then I rescind all my prior comments...
who's that CV guy, he talks gloomy.
Spooky rumour story about BAC insolvency ...
I hope it is true, time for the zombie banks to die.
I think he speaks the truth !! my new favorite rhetoric : a HALF TRUTH means you're a fucking liar...
@mcF
LOL...
Nic.. that gives me the shivers.. it's what i was thinking today.. seriously.. how much longer can BAC and WFC hide their loan losses..
how are you feeling?
b22-
I saw that Cramer article earlier- he's all in on Geithner and Bernanke-
CV-
so your take is BR is just saying what he needs to say to set his accounts at ease-
hmmmmm . . .very good possibilty
@Nic
time to die...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NOW4QiOD-oc&feature=search
It can be ART... If you allow it to happen...
CV, I have an acquaintance that reminds me so much of you! Today he emailed: "I pretty much tell people my opinion whether they want to hear it or not. Probably an offshoot of my profession where patients either have to listen to me in the emergency department or deal with a high probability of death."
@ahab
All I'm saying is that someone who proclaims to be the bearer of TRUTH...
Ought to tell the TRUTH...
Hi Karen
New doctor, much progress, thanks. Just need to get some more energy back :)
Time to die...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qaki5WSPNng&feature=search
guys, let me just throw out about BR, the guys at fusion get paid for setting clients in cash, so I'm not sure really that BR has to calm anyone down, their reps don't have to fear putting people in cash and going out of business like they do at a lot of shops.
If Obama is the answer...
How stupid was the question?
I thought Allen Iverson was The Answer.
Practice?
C'mon Man!
b22-
my impression is that BR believes in the 950-
he already had his "worst case" happen and is comfortable with a sluggish recovery as his outlook-
what is you opinion?
your opinion of BR's outlook that is
Nic
BAC has been trending down on the weekly 3LB since the flash crash week. JPM was able to reverse out of its downtrend. Then I read that article and realize why BAC can't get out of its downtrend.
I don't read the site close enough anymore to really know for certain but from what I do read that target of 950 would seem to make sense based on his comments so yeah I think he believes it. I do believe he just trusts the system they built and they'll just go with whatever it says in terms of capital allocation for client accounts, last I heard it was indicating bearish hence the big cash position.
I did find the truth seeker comments to be more business builder than...well,..... truth.
i need to see that movie. i loved that line about tears in the rain.. suppose it works for tear in the shower.. hey. don't forget tonight's moon!!
I'm now contemplating changing the name of this blog to "LIARS CAPITAL"...
I mean hell... If we admit up front that we're just a bunch of liars, then we can never be accused of anything misleading, right?
But I suppose SURVIVOR CAPITAL covers the same aspect...
In order to SURVIVE... One ought to have the capability of knowing who is lying to them or not...
i just realized my problem.. i've lived longer than Ben.
@karen
BLADE RUNNER...
It's in my top 5 all time...
>> I wonder if we can recruit folks like wunsacon, Mike in Nola and other old guard TBP posters?
Mannwich, thanks for asking. (Really.) This is for fantasy football, right? Well, I would really like to. But, between work, studying on the side (ultimately for work), reading econ/trading blogs, and some trading, I would make for a shitty FF participant. I've already spread myself too thin.
okay, well, you watch RED and tell me if it fits in your top 5.. i'll watch Blade Runner..
b22-
that's my take-
CV-
Liar's Capital- fits in with the times for sure-
and Blade Runner- excellent movie- better than the Philip K Dick book it's based on "Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep"
@karen
I will (RED)...
And here's another...
I'm not trying to be particularly MORBID here (referencing DEATH as ART, in film)...
I'm only on the subject because of the previous BANK reference, and with regards to the economy in general...
Let it die... people... (through DEATH comes re-birth)...
SOCRATES
“To fear death, my friends, is only to think ourselves wise, without being wise: for it is to think that we know what we do not know. For anything that men can tell, death may be the greatest good that can happen to them: but they fear it as if they knew quite well that it was the greatest of evils. And what is this but that shameful ignorance of thinking that we know what we do not know?”
BraveHeart
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vf7muYYQkJQ&feature=search
"i just realized my problem.. i've lived longer than Ben."
What?
top five movies....I'd have to think about that one
Dude Where's My Car?
some other Philip K Dick stories turned into movies along with Blade Runner-
Minority Report, Scanner Darkly, Total Recall and Screamers-
dude was good
CV, re Star Trek, the reason the *original series* appeals to me so much is less the "fire phasers" action and more the ideas Roddenberry presented. He set the stage in deep space but was really presenting issues we humans have to face back on earth. (So many times the crew visits a planet "like earth but different in some way".)
Some of the more memorable ones (for me):
"Let That Be Your Last Battlefield" - Racial hatred playing itself out.
"A Taste of Armageddon" - What happens when war becomes "too manageable".
"Plato's Stepchildren" - Power corrupts.
"What Are Little Girls Made Of?"
"Arena" - Don't we always say we'd like to see wars decided by the opposing leaders fighting each other??
"The Cloud Minders"
"Bread and Circuses"
"Patterns of Force"
Of course, there are also the "fun" episodes, like "Mirror, Mirror", "The Squire of Gothos", and "Wolf in the Fold".
Plus, "The Menagerie"... (I gotta stop...I'm giving myself goosebumps.)
For movie night:
Skippy: I have a series 7 license:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zvICN8DNMpY
Blade Runner was exceptional for its time...
I can understand someone NOT UNDERSTANDING it (as a piece of filmmaking)...
Any filmmaker though... has this ranked high on their list...
I "liked" Minority Report as well... Not on the same level, but on the level of pure imagination... (it was photographed and "acted in" as well - which is understandable because Spielberg can be counted on to do his job well)...
say what you want but I love Dude Where's My Car-
the "Chinese food mind" games is classic-
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K7luMp6lb9M
@wunsacon
I can't disagree... While I wasn't a TREKKIE... The original series had some kind of fascination...
I always thought Minority Report was a pretty cool movie, and Dude Where's My Car, in the right setting, hilarious.
how's this for random, this scene here scared the crap out of me when I was a kid:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XMr9iSZiexc
I am not crying tonight, therefore, I am not re watching that BraveHeart clip..
Excellent quote by Socrates.. : )
Ben, carpe diem, quam minimum credula postero; or as Nike would say, Just DO IT.
Does anybody remember when I did the 2010 "Oscars" thread...
I LOVE MOVIES people...
I hope to do another one next year as well...
These are some of the BEST THINGS that America has to offer...
I remember on a NASA special I watched they talk to half the people that designed the spaceships and where they got the ideas for things and most of them said Star Trek.
Time for bed, everyone!! Lights OUT.
Best Oscar Acceptance Speech EVER...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vd420MYpGek&feature=search
Although we disagree on this movie, Raising Arizona is one of the best movies of all time.
alright-
out for the night-
CV- yes- I do remember the Oscars post- very good- but your most epic post was the Winter Olympics!
b22- man dude- that was scary- lol
if anyone gets a chance- go to the library and check out some Philip K Dick novels- A Scanner Darkly is a personal favorite-
it was made into a movie w/ Keanu Reeves, Woody Harrelson, Robert Downey Jr and Winona Ryder-
good cast there- it was rotoscoped by the same dude who did Waking Life- another great movie-
will touch base in the morning
I like comedies..Dumb and Dumber was my favorite.
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=ap83Ixdei2w8
Debt Rally Cracking as Double-Dip Fears Haunt: Credit Markets
"The latest sign of economic weakness came yesterday with a report showing sales of existing houses plunged by a record 27 percent in July. S&P warned that if conditions worsen, bond sales by high-yield, high-risk companies may slow from this year’s record pace.
“It’s inevitable that we fall into a double-dip recession,” said Komal Sri-Kumar, who helps manage $118 billion as chief global strategist at TCW Group Inc. in Los Angeles. “The employment situation went into a double-dip, housing is going into a double-dip” and “the next stage is the overall economy will go into a double-dip.”
futures were able hold yesterday's low basically, if we don't break through that well before the week is over you'd likely have to favor a bounce next week.
I would add that would especially be the case if we go and test that again on the cash and bounce on it.
Another rumor of macro fund blow up this morning. Full liquidation mode and many crosscurrents in commodityland
New orders for manufactured durable goods in July 2010 increased 0.3% to $193.0 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 3.8%. Capital goods shipments rose 0.9% while overall shipments increased 2.2%, and inventories rose 0.6% in July.
[Bill]Gross proposed rolling Fannie Mae and other housing agencies into one giant agency and call it the Government National Mortgage Association guaranteeing a majority of existing and future originations.
brilliant
also-
Gross said he told Geithner and other Treasury officials that they would never get housing starts of 1 or even 2 million a year under the wing of the private market.
and we need that many housing starts why?
I am looking at the May25th low to be good support today, which would be two equal measured moves down from the early August highs.
NEW THREAD UP
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