Morning Audibles 6.8.10 I'm Telling You Son It Ain't No Fun

"Well the Crowd Drew Away 
& I Began To Pray
And My Water Fell On the Floor
And I'm Telling You Son
Well It Ain't No Fun
STARIN' STRAIGHT DOWN a "44""



Lynrd Skynrd
Knebworth Fair - Hertfordshire, ENGLAND
August, 1976

If anybody is curious, here's how CV sees this thing playing out...



- As of Monday's close, I'm putting 1065 as pretty hefty resistance (1071 thereafter - which isn't exactly "cold steel")...

- Many, including myself, are talking about that 1040 level as "STARIN STRAIGHT DOWN A 44"... Break that and where do we fall?

- I'm going to nominate the 992-1014 zone (1003 being the "midpoint" - per the chart)... I'd say we hit the bottom within June 14th...

- I'm not interested "whichever comes first", but a BOUNCE would likely ensue... Most likely to either 1071 area, or possibly all the way up to gap cover (which most were looking at last week)... That's 1110-1120 zone-ish...

- After that, it would be "GIMME 3 STEPS TOWARDS THE DOOR" time... (Unless this is, IN FACT, a "TYPICAL RECOVERY"...

I think I'll be VERY ENTERTAINED to hear the rhetoric spouted at the moment that occurs...

I might just "pen me some new lyrics"...

GIMME 3 STEPS (lyrics)


I was cutting the rug 
Down at a place called The Jug 
With a girl named Linda Lu 
When in walked a man 
With a gun in his hand 
And he was looking for you know who. 
He said, "Hey there fellow, 
With the hair colored yellow, 
Watcha tryin' to prove? 
'Cause that's my woman there 
And I'm a man who cares 
And this might be all for you." 

I was scared and fearing for my life. 
I was shakin' like a leaf on a tree. 
'Cause he was lean, & mean, 
Big and bad, Lord, 
Pointin' that gun at me. 
I said, "Wait a minute, mister, 
I didn't even kiss her. 
Don't want no trouble with you. 
And I know you don't owe me 
But I wish you'd let me 
Ask one favor from you." 

(Chorus) 
"Won't you give me three steps, 
Gimme three steps mister, 
Gimme three steps towards the door? 
Gimme three steps 
Gimme three steps mister, 
And you'll never see me no more." 

Well the crowd cleared away 
And I began to pray 
As my water fell on the floor. 
And I'm telling you son, 
Well, it ain't no fun 
Staring straight down a forty-four. 
Well he turned and screamed at Linda Lu 
And that's the break I was looking for. 
And you could hear me screaming a mile away 
As I was headed out towards the door.




191 comments:

BinT said...

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/06/07/obama-looking-ass-kick-oil-catastrophe/

Obama Looking for 'Ass to Kick' for Oil Spill

Back in the day, there was a series on television called "Movin' On Up"...the guy who was the head of the family George Jefferson was a little banty rooster kind of guy, easy to excite and shoot off his mouth.

I see real potential for a revival of this series for the next 3 years...

Anonymous said...

I kind of miss "Weezy"

mcHAPPY said...

Further to Bruce's 7:16...

Obama has managed to screw up anything and everything. I never thought I would miss George W.

The world needs real leaders right now. Unfortunately I am not aware of any. Harper in Canada? Obama in US? Trichet in EU? Hardly. Resignations in Japan. Doomed coalitions in UK. Douches in Spain and Greece. Communists in China. The people we have entrusted to lead are unfortunately leading us to darker days than they need to be.

mcHAPPY said...

Oh yes, plese do not imply I thought George W. was a great leader, it was just he never claimed to be. "Mission Accomplished"

AmenRa said...

I see the morning push came at 6:00 EST for the ES and EURUSD. The ES was below 1046 and EURUSD was looking to go back below 1.1900. Bastids.

CV said...

Lloyd Blankfein says...

Those aren't "leaders", I control everything...

I control your horizontal... I control your vertical...

mcHAPPY said...

Even EWI has all but given up on the idea we are still in a correction - however I am that stubborn I have not. Do not worry though, a break of 1040.78 will shut me up for good on the matter.

HOWEVER, until that happens, another thought....

If this were part of a bigger corrrection of 1219.80-1040.78, the A would equal 64.89, if B ended yesterday at 1049.86 and A=C, then we would be looking at a pretty mighty rise to 1114.75. Given the Euro and DXY run, I'm not ruling it out of possibility - albeit I would agree with the statement, "mcHAPPY is pissed he missed out on this move down and is grasping at anything to prove he might have another chance to get in above 1105.67 although he already lost 2 chances in the last week after getting stopped out of a couple of shorts too early."

Good luck today.

CV said...

At this point, CV thinks we simply see "Flash Crash 2"...

They're busy thinking up an excuse as we speak...

So - the move down to, say, 1000 will last about 10 minutes in the middle of the afternoon, (and retrace) before Johnny finishes his bowl of "Cup-o-Soup"...

Nothing to see here... Go back to your "Obama-visions"...

Anonymous said...

Since Mar-98 (149 months ago), the first time the SPX hit $1100, on a monthly basis, it has traded within 1100-1119.99 39 times, or 26.2% of the time.

CV said...

Because as we all know... "Flash Crashes", "Ass-Kickings", "overnight kick saves", LIBOR spread blowouts,$10T coordinated QE programs, IMF panhandling, and 300point DOW swings are all the types of things one sees in a

TYPICAL RECOVERY...

Anonymous said...

my head is still spinning from the Summers comment last night-

about Obama restoring our strong economic fundamentals

wow- where the hell are these strong economic fundamentals?

he must mean the exploding deficit and tax increases-

those are always economic winners

karen said...

Thanks, CV! nice take and the music, fun! Just reading last night's posts! You all got fiesty, laughing.

CV said...

@Anon

How many times has it traded at Wangers magical mystical number?

karen said...

this is a joke, right? from bloomberg, no less..

June 8 -- U.S. stock-index futures rose after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index’s biggest two-day drop since March 2009, as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the recovery is intact, offsetting Europe’s worsening debt crisis.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=azKv2Lph6SPE&pos=1

Anonymous said...

"How many times has it traded at Wangers magical mystical number?"

32 times (months) trading within 1080-1099.99

don't know the exact number for 1097 though :)

CV said...

I'll bet it's traded 149 times between 666 and 1576...

CV said...

Just a wild guess...

McFearless said...

strong economic fundamentals?

what exactly are our fundamentals beside the massive expansion of credit or die system?

karen said...

i just don't understand why/how msft even has any debt..

June 8 (Bloomberg) -- Microsoft Corp., the world’s biggest software maker, plans to sell $1.15 billion of convertible senior notes due in 2013.

Proceeds from the offering will be used to repay short-term debt, the Redmond, Washington-based company said today in a statement distributed by PR Newswire. Microsoft may grant the sale’s underwriters the option to buy an additional $100 million of the notes.

Microsoft issued $3.75 billion of 5-, 10- and 30-year debt in May 2009 as it tapped the corporate bond market for the first time, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

BinT said...

http://finance.yahoo.com/career-work/article/109735/Low-ball-salary-offers-should-you-take-it-or-leave-it?mod=career-salary_neg

Employers Low-Balling New Hires

"Since the labor market began picking up steam, companies hiring for entry-level or administrative spots with pay that would normally range from $40,000 to $50,000 have been offering workers $28,000 to $38,000, said Randy Miller, founder and chief executive of ReadyMinds, a Lyndhurst, N.J., a provider of online career counseling and coaching.

For workers further up the food chain, an offer that might have been $100,000 a few years ago is now coming in at $85,000 or $90,000, he said.

"Companies are more worried these days about margins, profitability, and they are cutting costs across the board. Even though [workers are] qualified and have prior experience, the hiring department has been told to set a budget at a lower range," Miller said. "Everybody is more price-sensitive these days."

As the labor market slowly heals, some hiring managers are offering salaries lower than what workers previously received. The question is: How low should workers go when it comes to accepting an offer?"


.....Already perfectly described in 3 words:

The New Normal.

karen said...

i'ved decided that i am totally in love with jcg.. the chart just doesn't look like a BUY ME, however.

Anonymous said...

b22-

no kidding- Summers' isn't a partisan hack or anything-

just stating the facts that Obama has singlehandedly restored our fundamentals-

whatever the hell that means

McFearless said...

some nice Q&A from EWI:

Category: Economic Trends
It appears that the best shape to describe the economic trend we are in is not a V, not a W, not an L, not a square root sign, but a lightning bolt -- zigzaging down from left to right (left-hand translated?) Your thoughts?

Responder: Bob Prechter Date: 6/8/2010
Yes.

karen said...

This is EXACTLY what I meant by my 9:29 bloomberg/bernanke post:

Bernanke Says Not to Expect Double Dip Recession... Hence Expect One

McFearless said...

But Bruce, how can we be in a new normal if the data is "typical"?

If I say data 45 times it must be true


data, data, data, data, data, data.....

karen said...

Ben, Bob is really growing on me!

I-Man said...

Ugh... no more pints of IPA at lunch... just kind of played through into the evening, and it doesnt feel so hot now.

I seem to get in the hyper creative mode after a few too many pints.

Lil Wayne really had me inspired last night.

Anonymous said...

I saw that lightening bolt shape offered up before as the way it would play out

don't remember who- might have been RP- but it was a few months ago

CV said...

You know...

One thing that wasn't discussed much (or, at least I didn't read it)...

Was that YESTERDAY's CLOSE was lower than the day 1044 was printed, & lower than when 1040 was printed...

The last lower close was 11/4 of last year...

McFearless said...

Karen,

he's def. not always right, and sometimes he is wrong in a spectacular kind of way, but RP is a brilliant guy. Of course, this is coming from me so.....

McFearless said...

did someone say data?

of course, there is this guy:

http://findmearobot.com/Pages/Required%20robots/Images/Data%20star%20trek.jpg

Anonymous said...

karen-

the whole double dip phenomena presupposes that we are out of a recession-

BB obviously delusional- stimulus and QE making the marginal difference in positive GDP-

however- the private is not picking up the slack- so I see it as a continuation- not a double dip at all

BinT said...

Exactly Ben, in my limited way of thinking, it is like keeping your old job but only working part time, at least in the pay department..

...and the Ivory Towers wonder why tax receipts are not bouncing back....

McFearless said...

CV,

you are right, getting this wrong is a crushing blow to his entire life's work. That hurts bad. it wold be like RP having wave theory invalidated to the point where he could not argue otherwise.

McFearless said...

and also, I'm growing sick and tired of hearing about GDP.

Japans GDP, look at it since 1989.....period.

CV said...

@McF

But BB was Time "Man of the Year"...

So he has that going for him...

McFearless said...

Hitler was also Man of the Year once if I'm not mistaken....

wunsacon said...

>> wow- where the hell are these strong economic fundamentals?

Ahab, are you blind??

Luxury spending by the top 1% picked up a bit after we shoveled them some bailout bennies.

We gotta stop whining here, Ahab, and look for those undigested oats left behind by the horses.

(Got a clothespin I can borrow to wear on my nose?)

BinT said...

It appears that Europe is once again doing its DEATH dance at the close....FTSE now at the lowest level of the day....

PPT
PPT
PPT
PPT

...or as the cowardly lion said,"Idobelieveinghosts"

wunsacon said...

>> Hitler was also Man of the Year once if I'm not mistaken....

As they say on "hoocoodanode": when Godwins, threads lose.

;-)

Anonymous said...

wusacon-

of course- that must have been it-

the top 1% rewarded once again-

I forgot that was a bedrock fundamental- sure am glad that my man Obama stepped up to reinforce that fact

Anonymous said...

sorry man- correction- "wunsacon"

Anonymous said...

"I'll bet it's traded 149 times between 666 and 1576..."

SPX has traded between 660-679.99 7 times in 174 months, from Feb-96 to now.

It has traded only one month in forever between 1560-1579.99

wunsacon said...

>> sorry man- correction- "wunsacon"

LOL. Yeah, save "wusacon" or "wussacon" for the next time I'm overly politically correct. ;-)

(Alright, I guess I better head to work. See you, folks later.)

Mannwich said...

So salaries for the rank and file are still goiing down? What about CEO salaries? Going down? I think not.

Staying the same or going up? I think so.

We are hurtling ourselves in slow motion to a really bad place.

Mannwich said...

@wunsy: So luxury spending is up? You made my point for me. This crisis was the perfect recipe for the elite to take even more profit gains from the rank and file workers who contribute mightily to make those profits possible. Mission accomplished in that regard. Now go buy another yacht. You need one. The other three are a few years old.

Leftback said...

Knebworth..... brings back memories.... one of my favorite songs, C.

GGUF. Closing in on 1250. Seems as though any semblance of normalcy, any cessation of world ending, Euro moderation, might lead to another:

CLAVADISTA d'ORO.

It can't go up on Euro weakness, dollar weakness... not every day...?

LB still betting on some quiet sideways rangebound trade during the World Cup. That lasts about a month from Friday, folks.

72bat said...

@ Ben
what's your take on nic lenoir over @ zerohedge
Setting Up For A Return Of Risk Appetite: "given the price action I expect to see in short order a pull back towards 1,070 and then 1,107 again, which remains the key resistance. People willing to play this tactically can try buying around 1,045 should see a final drop there with a stop below 1,035 in order to play 1,107. The fact we have so much divergence and are closing in on the 1,036 support reinforces our view of a short term bounce"

AmenRa said...

Good read from BMO Capital at ZH: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bmo-has-simple-message-its-clients-go-cash-now

Anonymous said...

here's some good news-

TrimTabs Investment Research Inc. tracks the real-time jobs picture by monitoring income tax deposits at the Treasury. And these have suddenly started falling. Based on the latest data, the firm predicts the economy will actually lose up to 200,000 jobs, net, in June. "The big news is that we have a job loss of about 200,000 coming in June," says Trim Tabs' Madeline Schnapp, "and the market isn't ready for it."

I wonder if employment is an economic fundamental?

just wondering

karen said...

AR, that report doesn't jibe with MS's $310 price target for aapl.. hmm, who are we gonna believe? MS or BMO?

this was good too:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bob-janjuah-prepares-sell-below-850-and-coordinated-10-trillion-quantiative-easing-part-2

ahab, thanks for that trimtabs note !!

Leftback said...

LB is inclined to agree with Nic Lenoir in the short term.

There is a good chance of a tradeable low forming here, especially if the Treasury auctions are a bit less enthusiastic than one might expect. The Euro has stopped free falling and FX traders are back to bashing Betty today. Bond yields are not very attractive here and traders may wait for higher yields before buying. A lot of Euro shorts would be scorched if a modest rally begins here.

LB also agrees with the observations on jobs, although it might be August - the month after census ends when the bottom falls out.

Leftback said...

The next move down will be a monster.

Watching the 3-month T-bill at 10bps. That's a concern for bulls.

Leftback said...

Banks and energy are green. Guess what is ready to bounce?

karen said...

LB, they go green before turning red again.. been doing this since last thursday.. we aren't even oversold yet..

AmenRa said...

SNB intervenes in the CHF with $10b (good for about 10 minutes): http://www.zerohedge.com/article/here-comes-snb-again

Also looks like there is EURUSD intervention to keep the SPX from blowing up.

I-Man said...

"(good for about 10 minutes)"

Precisely.

I-Man said...

Someone just couldnt resist, now could they?

Anyone else catch how clean the SPX was trading there for a few hours?

Then Bam! Gotta get ours...

karen said...

JNK and HYG:LQD not looking like a tradeable low, to me.. we will see! would love to get back into srs under 29.. preferably in 27s..

72bat said...

so karen, no appetite for a dollop of drv on top of that srs? ;^)

BinT said...

CV:

Off topic, but I had good fortune yesterday. My wife and I live on a big place, and I dislike some of the chores that go with maintaining such a spread. Yesterday, young bubba drove up, and within 45 minutes now I have the hay (1st and 2nd cuts) all sold and most of the rest of the place in for summer truck farming. Just showed up....lime and fertilize too...

I do like the swallows following the tractor when cutting hay, diving for insects and following for hours. But on the whole, it is just not what I'd rather be doing.

karen said...

bat! thanks for reminding me! a much better pick! i just now srs so well, too well.. laughing.

BinT said...

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/51562db6-72f8-11df-9161-00144feabdc0.html

Hungarian PM sets out economic plan

"The new measures include a freeze on state spending and a 15 per cent cut in aggregate public sector wages, saving a combined 120bn forints ($500m, €418m, £345m).

The government will boost revenues by levying a special tax on bank profits over the next three years, raising an estimated 200bn forints in 2010.

Fidesz also plans to ban foreign-currency mortgage lending after many Hungarians encountered debt problems when the domestic currency weakened during the crisis.

Meanwhile, Mr Orban said his government was set to introduce a flat income tax rate of 16 per cent and to lower the corporate tax burden on small companies."

...More Keynesian remedies falling by the wayside....

karen said...

i'm seeing lots of bounce worthy candles on the daily charts but the day is too young to make a determination..

72bat said...

BnT -
ah, to be a gentleman farmer.
can't blame you, sitting on a riding mower going over my 1/3 acre has grown old too.

BinT/Privately Employed said...

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e7909286-726b-11df-9f82-00144feabdc0.html

Time to plan for post-Keynesian era
By Jeffrey Sachs

Published: June 7 2010 22:22 | Last updated: June 7 2010 22:22

Mainstream Keynesian economics is facing its last hurrah. The global fiscal stimulus championed last year by the Obama administration is coming undone, repudiated by the same Group of 20 that endorsed it last year. Now, against a backdrop of a widening sovereign debt crisis, we need to abandon short-term thinking in favour of the long-term investments needed for sustained recovery.

BinT said...

72 bat:

We cut 4 acres just on a zero-turn mower around the house. Actually, I like that. Reminds me of bumper cars!

McFearless said...

@72,

re: ZH

I don't really have any problem with the figures used there, certainly could happen and would appear a pretty high probability. Here's the thing though, why at this point do we want to play countertrend swings to the upside? I could see if you didn't the trend has changed to down but I certainly do. That doesn't mean crash, just means the trend is down. I could see if you were a bang day-trader doing that, but for the time frames I trade, this would be no different than me trying to short every down move that happened in 2009. Not only was that extremely hard to do (impossible?), odds are that you didn't just miss most of them, you would have lost a lot of money too.

At this time I'd be in full-on capital protection mode if I were not willing to take risk.

If I was willing to take risks I'd rather identify rally targets to pyramid build a short position rather than trying to fight the larger trend at work for quick, high risk and likely lower reward trades on the long side.

last Friday saw some extremely powerful internal selling that was not just powerful, but very very orderly. It was so powerful in fact that some of the indicators were even more extreme than anything from 07-09....if shorts thought 2009 was a long hard year, longs may find even more trouble in 2010, I don't think I'm good enough right now to fight against those kind of forces, so cash, some govies, and some shorts it is for me, in that order.

I-Man said...

Thats because all the idiots in the global "Club" were all still long at the top...

Too busy trying to create/paint their trades to have time for lowly reading of the tape.

I-Man said...

Guess yall are forcing me to work...

CV said...

This reminds me more of around the time all the way back around 1150 (where everyone was looking for that number to hold and therefore to play a bounce)... You know - go back and re-test 1220 and all...

Then - the FLASH CRASH...

Oops... Someone "fat fingered" a trade...

This "hovering" above 1040 reminds me of that...

CV said...

So at this point, all this "pussyfooting" around the so called "bottom" tells me the bottom is not in... Slope of hope...

When the bottom is in, then you'll see a bigger whiplash than these piddly little things that only show up on the 1 or 2 minute charts...

Why no bounce here?

Because "shorts" aren't covering yet...

I-Man said...

Man...

I was beginning to wonder if you'd all been a figment of my boredom induced imagination.

72bat said...

@ ben
thanks for that. inclined myself to look for bounces as short entry points, but then as cv has analogized, could be like last year looking for the really good pullback to get long. never had the chance.

I-Man said...

Yeah, at the beginning of moves like this- its tough to not get a bit of that analysis paralysis.

McFearless said...

"cv has analogized, could be like last year looking for the really good pullback to get long. never had the chance."

hence buying in pyramid fashion rather than trying to "pick a top"....I trade a little different than some people here in that I don't use stops very often, I'm willing to feel a certain degree of mental pain with every single position I take.

I-Man said...

Some of my best longer held large positions started out as really small day/swing trades...

Sometimes you just need to get in with a small trade to get your bearings straight.

Then once you have a core, you can add on rips and cover on dips, as your individual risk preference accords.

arbitrage789 said...

I assume that some of you read the Ritholtz post about how the “Arms Index” reached an extreme on Friday:


http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/06/dick-arms-trin-arms-index-at-extreme-levels/

karen said...

DL, are you trying to bait me ? laughing.

arbitrage789 said...

Perish the thought.

McFearless said...

DL,

As we noted here last week, TRIN like that only ever hapened two times....once in 87 and once in 08. Interpretation of TRIN is subjective, so bulls and bears alike can make compelling arguments about it, so how much weight can you put into it as a result?

arbitrage789 said...

McFearless,

There is no "holy grail" of indicators. Just a "hodgepodge", the constituents of which have to be weighed.

McFearless said...

exactly DL, the market is the ultimate indicator, TRIN one of many tools.

arbitrage789 said...

Back on 5/25/10, the SPX rallied from 1041 to 1090 in just 24 hours. Could happen again.

arbitrage789 said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
I-Man said...

It also fell from 1140 to 1065 in about 24 minutes on May 6th.

arbitrage789 said...

McF,

"the market is the ultimate indicator".

Indicator of what?

karen said...

We are a quiet lot today, aren't we? back to AR's wrap from last night.. "You are here."

McFearless said...

forward prices DL....mapped with this thing called wave theory, all other indicators trail and only serve to help confirm your count, not to dictate it.

I-Man said...

I thought it was pretty quiet last night also...

arbitrage789 said...

McFearless,

"Forward prices".

So are you rich yet?

BinT said...

With war looming, it's time to be prepared. So last week I switched to a fixed-rate mortgage. It means higher monthly payments, but I'm terrified about what will happen to interest rates once financial markets wake up to the implications of skyrocketing budget deficits.

From a fiscal point of view the impending war is a lose-lose proposition. If it goes badly, the resulting mess will be a disaster for the budget. If it goes well, administration officials have made it clear that they will use any bump in the polls to ram through more big tax cuts, which will also be a disaster for the budget. Either way, the tide of red ink will keep on rising.

Last week the Congressional Budget Office marked down its estimates yet again. Just two years ago, you may remember, the C.B.O. was projecting a 10-year surplus of $5.6 trillion. Now it projects a 10-year deficit of $1.8 trillion.

And that's way too optimistic. The Congressional Budget Office operates under ground rules that force it to wear rose-colored lenses. If you take into account — as the C.B.O. cannot — the effects of likely changes in the alternative minimum tax, include realistic estimates of future spending and allow for the cost of war and reconstruction, it's clear that the 10-year deficit will be at least $3 trillion.

So what? Two years ago the administration promised to run large surpluses. A year ago it said the deficit was only temporary. Now it says deficits don't matter. But we're looking at a fiscal crisis that will drive interest rates sky-high


....OK, who is the author of this drivel against budget deficit spending? Who can it be?
1. Mish
2. Mauldin
3. Santelli
4. Krugman


......times up.


http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/11/opinion/11KRUG.html
A Fiscal Train Wreck
By PAUL KRUGMAN
Published: March 11, 2003

AmenRa said...

Karen

Everyone is waiting to see 1040 get tested and blown through. They know BB can't "calm" markets and the ECB is even weaker.

McFearless said...

DL,

I'd guess for my age I'm in the top 1% of net worth in the nation....wealth takes time and rich is a relative term.

Anonymous said...

last I checked the market was the indicator of equity values- or values of anything for that matter

arbitrage789 said...

McF @ 1:37

If you got there by E.W. theory alone, I'm getting a subscription immediately.

Anonymous said...

"Are Stocks Near Bear Market? Some Pros See Danger Signs"- CNBC

wow- I didn't know we were out of a bear market- learn something new every day

I-Man said...

So we do this to get rich?

Is that what its all about?

I-Man just likes to trade, money just an afterthought to managing the risk.

arbitrage789 said...

I-Man,

How 'bout if you trade until your rich, then give me the money?

karen said...

Do I need to repost that excellent NLY on Relative Value ??

arbitrage789 said...

My interest in money is that, if I had enough of it, work would be merely an option, but not a necessity.

Don't need the fancy cars, fancy house, expensive vacations, etc.

BinT said...

As a noted former NFL coach once said:

We trade to win the game!

Anonymous said...

Thurston Howell III was the richest man on Gilligan's Island-

those trunks of money must have really come in handy

I-Man said...

Of course, DL.

But can you tell me what rich is? Just so I know when I get there...

In the meantime, I'll be enjoying the journey.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Rich is when you are better off than your neighbors. After that, who cares, right?

karen said...

I'll tell you I felt very rich enjoying that delicious meal with friends the other evening..

being rich is when you are loving life.. and has nothing to do with how much money you have.

Anonymous said...

From 1900 to 2009 the S&P 500 has returned...

using 20 year periods, it has averaged above 10%/year 68 times. All other times it was below 10% but never negative

arbitrage789 said...

"being rich is when you are loving life"

I agree. But that only begs the question.

arbitrage789 said...

Anon @ 1:56

So what advice do you give to someone who's 50 years old?

72bat said...

"one person's rich is another person's poor"
can be taken either way

CV said...

@anon

What's the VALUE of the dollars that the S&P gave those returns on?

Last I heard, the 1913 dollar is worth less than 8 cents...

arbitrage789 said...

Yeah, a dollar in the year 1966 wasn't worth so much 20 years later.

karen said...

another retailer i love to follow is lulu and they announce on Thursday before the open.. trades close to a 50 PE.. which is a little steep, i think : )

karen said...

here we go again.. WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--U.S. lawmakers are considering adding a transition period to a controversial new capital rule that would bar banks from counting trust-preferred securities as Tier 1 capital, the measure's author indicated Tuesday.

The change in treatment to trust-preferred securities is part of an amendment to the Senate financial-overhaul bill sponsored by Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine). It was unanimously adopted by lawmakers with little fanfare but has since sparked an intense lobbying campaign for its removal from the Treasury, Federal Reserve and big banks, the latter which could be forced to hold billions of dollars in additional capital.

Collins' opponents would prefer to kill the new rules entirely during House-Senate conference negotiations. But critics see a transition phase of several years as another, albeit less favored, option that would lessen the impact of the changes.

Collins is standing firm behind her measure but indicated Tuesday that a transition period is on the negotiating table.

karen said...

interesting:

The downside of the rally
Written by Jamie Coleman
June 8, 2010 at 17:20 GMT
The one thing we can take away from the crazy price action in the last few hours is that the market is much less short than it was earlier today. Should prices turn to the downside, expect it to have an easier time getting through the central bank bids at 1.1915/20.
Traders will be selling because they have to, not because they want to..those moves are usually more powerful.
EUR/USD trades now at 1.1954.

Rod said...

I am sick already with the amount of bloggers calling for an oversold bottom. They imply, without saying it, that we should be buying the dips. These guys never switch to selling the rallies. Subprime was contained, Dubai was contained, Greece was contained, and yet the fact of the matter is that 10yr spreads are now widening in France as well.

arbitrage789 said...

Rod @ 2:33

"These guys never switch to selling the rallies".

Some do.

karen said...

well, rod, gold is not contained, LOL... so there is definitely fear in the wind. $vix has no clue, imo. it is my favorite hindsight tell, btw.

karen said...

DL, you are so serious and somber today despite your colorful avatar, laughing. come on, let's be rich, love life, and have fun!

arbitrage789 said...

Karen,

"serious and somber"

Yes, you're reading me correctly today.

(Maybe a need a different avatar).

AmenRa said...

I thought I heard the pundits say technology would lead the way. I guess that got tossed out also.

mcHAPPY said...

Technology memo got tossed with China memo.

mcHAPPY said...

For anyone looking to sell their shorts, I just bought some. Contrarian indicator.

karen said...

I just found this chart at Calculated Risk on Personal Bankruptcies.. 2010 is turning out to be a very big year.. compare it to booming 2005 when there was a law change that impacted PBs..

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/06/personal-bankruptcy-filings-increase-9.html

Lord John said...

Good luck McHAPPY, you deserve it. You've been working hard on the analysis lately and I appreciate it. It's been helpful as I search for a short entry.

Rod said...

The 200 month Moving Average of the S&P 500 rests at 1048. We are that close to a huge technical demarcation, and yet there is no immediate rejection of these levels (no oversold bounce yet), which should happen if the outlook was really that healthy.

AmenRa said...

Market is really really trying to hold 1050 to say it found a bottom. You know that toy where each piece is the same but smaller? That's how the bottom will be. Each one will be lower.

I-Man said...

"And I got mad hits like I was Rod Carew."

BinT said...

About time for the slide to start..

mcHAPPY said...

Thanks, LJ.

I was going along fine until EWI alternate count got me thinking a little too much. Sometimes you just have to do it I guess. We were at 6.60 on TZA last week and I said, "I'll wait until 6.25." Then it went to $7.55. Then it went back to 6.58 and I said, "Definitely going to hit 6.25 this time." Now it is at $8.50... too funny. I guess when you've been burned so many times to the upside you can't believe a downside.

Until we break 1040.78 I'm going to be doubting it.

Lord John said...

Yeah, I've been burned so much to the upside that I think I'm being too cautious getting back in short and I've missed some great opportunities lately.

I-Man said...

Guess someone has some weight to move, judging by this little ascent...

AmenRa said...

MUST...NOT...CLOSE...UNDER...1050...

AmenRa said...

but the EURUSD is pushing back towards 1.1900

I-Man said...

I think we'll close at the lows.

Unfortunately for them, folks are still buying dips.

Anonymous said...

@ cv

took a while to figure the returns...(also @ work)

from 1913 to 2009, the average return is 8.31%, the average annualized return (CAGR) would be 6.26% with a standard deviation of 20.50%. $1.00 grew to $361.55 inflation adjusted dollars.

karen said...

can't find any news to "pin" this move on..

arbitrage789 said...

Anon @ 3:38

Yeah, that "standard deviation" is a killer.

arbitrage789 said...

Karen @ 3:40

About time for the "market gods" to throw the bulls a bone.

I-Man said...

Just pin it on LB's ass.

mcHAPPY said...

Fuck me. Seriously, fuck me. Dammit.

BiinT said...

@McHappy:

Nothing that a few margaritas won't fix...

karen said...

DL, are you trying to bait me again? You know how I like 4 letter words!

I-Man said...

Oh McHappy...

Gotta love it bro, embrace it.

72bat said...

karen -
like "bull" "trap"?

I-Man said...

Totally, Bat.

karen said...

DL, can we short the close? tell me quickly! thanks, laughing.

McFearless said...

had to go to mtg, seems we all agree, rich IS a relative term. Make no mistake, I do this because I love it, and because it's the most challenging thing I've ever tackled in my life (markets) I talked about retirement on the old blog, some people seemed to have an issue with this because I'm young, retirement to me is defined as work being optional not getting rich and then sitting around all day, which is a nightmare to me, I can't imagine not working, but wanting to work and having to work are different.

I don't credit EW for all the money I have. First I follow lots of analysis and second, I had to work hard to build a business that generates income for me on top of any trading profits, I've been killing myself for many years now setting this up, 12-15 hour days, 1,000 cold calls a week for years, self study, etc. EWI has helped me preserve the business I've taken years to build. I'd credit thinking in terms of socionomicis much more than EW theory with my success though.

That said, this shouldn't be an endorsement to get a sub. to EWI, do it if you want to learn to trade with waves, not because you think it will make you money. Perhaps my good fortune has had nothing to do with any of that, perhaps it was just chance.

AmenRa said...

Karen

NYSE TRIN was hanging around 0.6 most fo the day.

$Trin SPX was 1.22 while $Trin NYSE was 0.55 so someone spent a lot of moola in advancing issues on the NYSE.

arbitrage789 said...

Karen @ 3:48

Let’s see, we have “time”, and we have “gods”. I haven’t left anything out, have I…?

I-Man said...

Its really hard to not short this close given the sharpness of this move. It seems that lately, every late day run-up has ended up being a gap down the next day.

But, I'm the guy who just said he thought we would close at the lows, so take it for what its worth...

mad ramblings.

arbitrage789 said...

Karen @ 3:52

I'm more interested in taking my chances on the long side, at this point.

I-Man said...

So McHappy...

Did you run away and live to trade another day?

karen said...

DL, I am also much more interested in holding longs.

Anonymous said...

well I-man- I bought some SDS at the close-

I was thinking the same thing

Anonymous said...

FUCK ME.

Guess who

McFearless said...

uh, karen, 4:02

that might be a yellow card?

mcHAPPY said...

I-man

I held it - fuck it.

2/3's of my powder left dry.

I'm pissed though - oh am I pissed. The sh*tty thing is nothing, I mean NOTHING, is resolved.

Ben22 said...

McHappy,

a quick story, I lost some decent coin when I first discoverd wave because I was trading all the time, fwiw.

arbitrage789 said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

anon @ 4:03-

if you're long- you may be in luck- check w/ Karen

arbitrage789 said...

McF @ 4:03

Karen and Nic are exempt.

(Double standard).

72bat said...

ahab -
i had conditional orders for drv & spxu to trigger at 1065. don't know whether i should feel safe or sorry.

karen -
not dabbling in vietnamese currency are you?

Ben22 said...

"last I checked the market was the indicator of equity values- or values of anything for that matter"

I think the term is price not value. There's that old saying that everyone on Wall Street knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.

Ben22 said...

So you guys are shorting here? I didn't do anything again today so lets hope you get a real face ripper tomorrow.

Ben22 said...

face rip down that is....

arbitrage789 said...

Ben @ 4:12

I would certainly expect the S&P futures to trade down in the early morning hours (4 A.M. to 6 A.M., or so)

mcHAPPY said...

Ben,

Guaranteed face rip up. Although now that I am typing it, most likely won't happen. But then again, I am short so it probably will.

LOL

p.s. fuck me.

72bat said...

ben -
kinda looking for the opposite, where mchappy was coming from up until today, the nic lenoir kind of scenario of 1170 or above. trying to decide where to set the entry point for conditional orders tomorrow.

karen said...

I didn't do any buying.. Turnaround Tuesday lived up to it's name! Will tomorrow be Woeful Wednesday? and, if so, for whom? the longs or shorts?

Another day of June Gloom and I might not care about anything; see you all later!

Anonymous said...

b22-

value- definition (1): an amount expressed in money or another medium of exchange that is thought to be a fair exchange for something

so- the price of something at any given moment-

now you may not find value (used in a different context) at that price- but that price is the current market value

I-Man said...

So how's this I and I fellow food lovers?

Fresh spinach salad with sugar snap peas, baby carrots, avacado, sliced scallions, radish slices, and dry roasted almonds.

A Jazz apple, and a small banana.

All organic.

Anonymous said...

I-Man-

pretty funny- all I had today is lope, almonds and an avocado-

but I did make a mean black bean chili for tonight

off on the bike for now

arbitrage789 said...

NOW Jack Ablin says sell:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/37576951

Nice to see that he's on top of the situation.

BinT said...

McHappy;

Bears repeating. Experience is the harshest teacher. First she gives you the test. Then she teaches you the lesson.

We've all been there.

Anonymous said...

Beautiful stick save into the close by the PPT. The thing was so close to falling into the abyss.

72bat said...

i-man -
TAS-TEE! your own baby carrots?
fresh-picked sugar snaps and arugula in my tofu (with scallions) & noodles tonight (weeknight dinners tend to be more simple menus)
gotta admit karen got me going with that duck confit dish her friend laid on her, but then my neighbor is a trader joe's manager. he and his wife sometimes have cook-off competitions and invite me over to be the judge.
tonight seeing the swedish flic "the girl with the dragon tattoo" don't have high hopes, cos' the female protagonist is played by an actress that looks 30 whereas the character is supposed to be a 20-something that looks 14.

McFearless said...

ahab,

fair enough

I-Man said...

You sound like you have a good life, Bat...

Sadly, no, not my own carrots.

My radishes though...

My peas are all flowering, so you know what that means...

And spinach is right around the corner, along with my first round of scallions.

Its still too cold at night for most things to really be growing hard... but I see my first flowers on my early tomato plants, so it wont be long now.

Corn is the real laggard around here, we've had way too much rain.

I-Man said...

Here's a list of longs for you, DL...

http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/2010/06/front-pocket-rocket-ready-list-of-live.html

McFearless said...

did you all read the "anatomy of a bubble" thread at BR's the other day. very silly imo, I especially liked this line under the "profit-taking" stage:

"Profit Taking: By this time, the smart money – heeding the warning signs – is generally selling out positions and taking profit"

Oh really? Is that how it played out in 2008, I think not, perhaps it's time for a list of returns of those considered 'smart money' or dare I say, the smartest money....

72bat said...

i-man -
all in all, yes, life is good. try to appreciate what fortune comes my way.
someday would like a bed full of soft, loose, loamy soil to grow all sorts of roots

McFearless said...

if you wanted to get long, why not just find the crappiest crap you could find and long that. It's not as if that strategy has changed since 09. American International Group....as an example.

Of course, if you're idea is to buy and hold, well, you've already lost...but good luck.

arbitrage789 said...

I-Man @ 4:58

We'll see where we are in mid-July.

I-Man said...

My favorite root at the moment is the humble Golden Beet.

Cant wait for those to be done.

Raw, sliced paper thin in a salad is the best.

I-Man said...

DL,

Like 920...

Were you feeling that at all?

bob said...

Just checking in, seems like you all having things under control.

Out of internet range until a few hours ago.

arbitrage789 said...

I-Man @ 5:05

I really don't think we'll go down that far within the next two months.

We shall soon see.

McFearless said...

and, I realize we were on this kick yesterday, but BR, infallible he is not, and I remain quite skeptical he "called the bottom", not that that is important to do, but he acts as if he did, please note the date and time, I'm thinking BR is not good at reviewing sentiment at all, he had a post up just before we topped out in April about how bullish sentiment was "waning" which was completely wrong and denied all the DATA, bullish sentiment extremes where all over the place the, much like at the bottom of this post, where he talks about "bullishness", also wrong, DSI, among many other indicators were hitting record lows at that time, that week, AAII bulls were 24.3% and bears were 55.14% that week....that wasn't "too much bullishness" , that was 15% more bears on the long term average of AAII and more than 10% less bulls....and at that point it had been going on for months at extremes.


By Barry Ritholtz - February 24th, 2009, 8:56PM
I am amazed at the general tenor of comments about today’s rally — it was very much party like its 1999.

I was on Liz Claman’s show today from 3 -4 (she’s a delight). It felt like a celebration to me — and all we did was undo yesterday’s losses. It was treated like the second coming by some people.

Put this into context: The action of this Bear has ripped away half of the bull market from 1982 to 2007. Thats 27 years of gains down the tubes.

And today’s action took back a single day of losses.

The chatter makes we wonder if there is simply far too much bullushness for anything more than a modest bounce at this time . . .

McFearless said...

@72,

any way to read those stories your daughter wrote? I'm always reading something....she must be pretty good considering the awards she won so if that's available you should put up a link.

72bat said...

@ ben
i'll forward your request. in any case, she'll be complimented by your interest. thanks.

Post a Comment

Disclosure/Warning

This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.