Morning Audibles 6.15.10 - A Gaussian Blur

C'MON on man... Every AAPL lover knows what a "Gaussian Blur" is right? It's right there in your Photoshop... It's that feature that you can make any photo (or scene) look EXACTLY the way you want it to (or ONE of them, at least)...


You know how it is...


A decade (or more) of being FORCE FED by the media that you had to GO GREEN (whether it's "carbon" or "shoots" - which, by the way is odd because you'd think plants would ADORE a planet full of bountiful carbon)... But I digress... You're so tired of hearing GREEN (as in "money"), you actually just throw up your hands and give in...


Because THIS is what green really amounts to in its SALES PITCH form (see? it's damn useful to the "sales pitchers")...




(If a BLANK SPOT on your browser appears here... The EMBED video can be retrieved HERE...)


But what about Gauss?... "Johann Carl Friedrich Gauss" (to be precise)...


This dude 
(chicks dig him because he rarely wore underwear)...


What does he have to do with anything?


Nothing really... Nothing NEARLY important as great thinkers (and internet inventors) like famous "green advocate" AL GORE might be contemplating... 


"I'm GOING GREEN... So spend taxpayer dollars to "subsidize" companies that I've invested in that will benefit when CARBON TAX CREDIT DOLLARS are levied upon citizens, by the government, after my propaganda tirade is fully completed"... I'll be rollin' in GREEN by then...


Back to GAUSS (the OTHER blur)... For our purposes, "JoGA" (as his friends like to call him - and after which was named an athletic discipline that has recently sent LULULEMON stock skyrocketing), can perhaps explain WHY this market hasn't CRASHED YET...


It has something to do with this...



In vector calculus, Gauss' theorem (Carl Friedrich Gauss), Ostrogradsky's theorem (Mikhail Vasilievich Ostrogradsky), or Gauss–Ostrogradsky theorem is a result that relates the flow (that is, flux) of a vector field through a surface to the behavior of the vector field inside the surface (We're talking about 'Leading Diagonals", or "LD's" here)...

More precisely, Gauss' theorem states that the outward flux of a vector field through a closed surface is equal to the volume integral of the divergence of the region inside the surface...

Intuitively, it states that the sum of all sources minus the sum of all sinks gives the net flow out of a region... It is an important result for the mathematics of fluid dynamics...

It kinda looks like this (when scribbled onto one of those paper tablecloths that they use for quick table changes in PIZZERIAS - or at least the ones I go to... Because CV, a "connoisseur" of Italian style eateries after having lived 12 years in Italia... Prefers the idea of a tasty inexpensive pizza BETTER than the "muckety-muck" idea of regurgitating an EXPENSIVE meal after sitting in a Hamptons [Italian STYLE] Bistro listening to "Wall Streeters Who Blog" bombard me with artillery fire all evening, about things like "typical recoveries", over a plate of FOIE GRAS)...






Oh yeah (this is how it looks on a napkin)... Mixing metaphors again... Sorry!


Now... If you require a more simple explanation... It basically is the mathematical THEOREM that explains WHY CV put up the "Dance This Mess Around" video clip the day after The SPX hit 1040 a few weeks ago (just so one understands my motivations for such things)...

Let's... NOW... Delve DEEPER into the "Dante's Inferno" of simplicity...



WTF is this? (Not your fault AMEN - I was just wondering why there have been 33 candles since the VIX took out the 55SMA to the upside)... Just wondering... You know... Not "34" candles or anything like that...

Speaking of wondering... I was also wondering why HFT's (when they want to keep the market "pumped" via perceived [GAUSSIAN] liquidity, they use these stocks [instead of the TYPICAL RECOVERY DJIA30])... Just wondering, again...








Forget the Dow 30. The 25 companies listed here were the favorites of high frequency traders in the U.S. during the past two months, based on a recent study by Woodbine Associates of Stamford, Connecticut.
Company Name (symbol) Trading Volume* (millions of shares)
Citigroup (C) 507.8
Ford Motor Co. (F) 132.7
Bank of America Corp. (BAC) 116.7
General Electric Co. (GE) 90.3
Intel Corp. (INTC) 73.0
Pfizer (PFE) 71.5
Sprint Nextel Corp. (S) 68.2
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) 64.8
Cisco Systems (CSCO) 55.2
Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) 45.4
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) 44.4
Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS) 39.6
Alcoa (AA) 38.3
AT&T (T) 30.9
Oracle Corp. (ORCL) 30.4
Regions Financial Corp. (RF) 29.5
Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) 29.4
Fannie Mae (FNM) 29.2
Motorola (MOT) 26.8
Yahoo! (YHOO) 26.6
Dell (DELL) 26.4
EMC Corp. (EMC) 24.3
Apple (AAPL) 23.7
Morgan Stanley (MS) 21.2
Home Depot (HD) 18.8
Source: Woodbine Associates, Yahoo! Finance.
*Average daily trading volume for March through May 2010.

In the end, CV's intellect is too small to comprehend these kinds of things...

So let's get back to World Cup and some Administrative/Chicago Type/Dairy Queen wannabe runnin' "ass kicking"... Shall we? ;-)... 


NO! You say... "STOCKS is what I want to know about... "SHORTING THEM" (in particular)...


272 comments:

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Mannwich said...

Speaking of which, my lawn may have cows appearing on it soon, it's gotten so high with all the rain........

Mannwich said...

Blogger monster is back.

Mannwich said...

Meanwhile, this is quite the little pump going on.

Nic said...

Manny & DL
I completely agree.

Leftback said...

This will be looked back on as a good day to have sold stocks and gold.
An even better day to have bought bonds.

Not saying this move is over, but intrepid longs should lighten up.
LB is finding it can be good to be long during Op Ex week.

Unknown said...

If I don't move off my screen now and just watch Brazil play, I am sure I will end up making a losing trade.

CV said...

& vuvuzelas

CV said...

& vuvuzelas

karen said...

Monthly data released Tuesday by the major U.S. credit-card issuers signal a continued turnaround in a sector hit by losses stemming from souring loans and borrowers falling behind on bills.

The latest numbers on the performance of credit-card loans, from issuers including Capital One Financial Corp. (COF), Discover Financial Services (DFS), J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Bank of America Corp. (BAC), indicate that while credit losses remain at elevated levels, their pace of increase is tempering for most card issuers. Another bright spot: Delinquency rates, a key gauge of future losses, are slowing.

Even though these numbers come amid fiscal woes in Europe, stock-market declines at home and stubbornly high U.S. unemployment, the next challenge for credit-card issuers likely won't be rising defaults, but the growth of their book of card loans.

72bat said...

mchappy -
1111.76
have you put on the rest of your shorts?

mcHAPPY said...

More lube, please.

arbitrage789 said...

Nic @ 2:19

However, many have predicted this, although few could be specific about the timing.

Nic said...

OK peeps. Time to watch the game.

Anonymous said...

test

AmenRa said...

The SPX better close above 1110. If not they'll game the after hours up to 1120 to force the AM squeeze. Arrgghh!!!

McFearless said...

I'm sure you can all already see it but there is no volume really again today. shocking I know....

AmenRa said...

test

AmenRa said...

Manny

The blogger monster has been vanquished.

Mannwich said...

Just saw that, Amen. Amen!

AmenRa said...

Do or die time for the SPX. Where will we end up at the close?

Leftback said...

Things That Make You Go... Hmmm:

T-Bill Yields to Go Negative

So the official explanation of demand for T-Bills is it is "Structural and Technical". Or perhaps it is because certain parties have been tipped off that there is going to be a Great Big Dump in Q3 ?

Cold Steel said...

Happy to oblige, McHappy.

McFearless said...

lefty, I mentioned that earlier, something is def. brewing, and it's always technical when there is no news...I mean, with the S&P "off its lows" why should anyone be so considered they bid t-bills like that.

C&C Music Factory indeed.

McFearless said...

considered = concerned.

Nic said...

I was too slow ... Al Gore is taken again already:
http://bit.ly/af1biR

CV said...

Cow says (to Manny)


"MOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOVE back to Chelsea"

karen said...

"f buyers push the bears to cover, we will likely see a “Popped Stops” play. That’s a positive feedback loop where bulls rush to buy the breakout and bears rush to protect losses by ‘buying back’ their shares – a classic short-squeeze of sorts.

The alternative is that buyers fail to overcome sellers here, and price remains within the established trading range and heads back to 1,040… and bears would defend their ‘turf’ on the battlefield.

The other – less pleasant for everyone – outcome would be a “Bull Trap,” wherein bears would cover above 1,110, bulls would buy a breakout, and then price would sink right back into the trading range."

http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/here-we-go-at-1110-trap-reversal-or-breakout/

I-Man said...

Concrete jungle where dreams are made of... theres nothing you cant do...

These streets will make you feel brand new, these lights will inspire you...

Mannwich said...

@I-Man:.....or keep you awake at night.......

Leftback said...

Yes - it is almost time to Release The Hounds. Here is the script for the Crash of 2010, which was just forwarded to me by Giles Straightarrow, Blankfiend's right hand man.

Jobs data on July 2nd will be pretty shonky but it's low volume selling into the holiday. One more BBQ at Brian's, July 5? Magic Tuesday! Then a bit of market nervousness that week. Friday July 9th could be a bit naughty, technical breakdowns, 3LB changes and such.

World Cup Final on the 11th. I can guarantee that most national teams won't be the winners. Sell 'em bitches on the 12th. Soon after that we get the Death Cross, then it's Katy Bar The Door.

Get yer bonds while they're (not) hot.

McFearless said...

I,

Track 14 on the new Alicia Keys, her alone on that song is sweeeet. That whole album is really good in fact.

McFearless said...

just sayin...sentiment wise...this DOES NOT feel like a wave 2.

CV said...

@McF

But Hadn't Andy already dismissed this as a wave 2 and was calling it an ZZ?

Nic said...

How should a wave2 feel plse McF?

Mannwich said...

Too Big to Fail to live on (in infamy?)....

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/06/15/volcker-new-government-po_n_612392.html

OK, so when will the employees at these places be paid in accordance with the fact that they have this implicit guarantee?

Nic said...

Someone just said:
"The beauty of living in the PRK is that no matter what happens, PRK already won and Kim Jong Ill was Man of the match."

Cold Steel said...

Dunno if this is a Wave 2 but it feels REAL GOOD, little Bear.

McFearless said...

CV,

Andy did yes, as for the rest of the waver community,....no.

Nic,

Wave 2's are supposed to feel like the prior larger trend move, in this case, a large Wave 2 retracement should feel like the move from March 09-to April of this year. Wave 2 should convince people the old trend is back in force again, that's its "job".

Wave 2's often end on low volume and volatility. They often also retrace such a large portion of Wave 1 that any profits made in Wave 1 are lost by the time 2 is over....

Just my own observation but I'm not witness to bears breaking down right here, lot of them are looking to short instead. anecdotal of course, just saying what I think I'm seeing.

Andy T said...

Nic. In a wave-2, people should feel like we're going to set new highs again....

Mannwich said...

I don't think it "feels" that way, do you, AT?

McFearless said...

review of all sentiment at the end of the week this week is key, we'll see how many bears hung on.

I-Man said...

"Who feels it knows it Jah..."

McFearless said...

Nic,

In a real Wave 2, we'd likely get some Anon here as well to tell us how stoopid we all are for being bearish. Can't put a check mark next to that yet, they've all vanished since the April top...

CV said...

@Andy/Ben

Re: Wave 2

That's why I think we go down and then go back up again...

I don't think 1150 is off the table (but I think it'll be hit AFTER maybe a trip to 1000)...

Just CV's 2c

Leftback said...

One for the ladies. A wonderfully elegant presentation from your second favorite British commentator, Niall Ferguson:

Ferguson on Crises

McFearless said...

some of the astro peeps were looking for a high yesterday or today, I don't follow the stuff close enough to know how accurate it is though.

CV said...

@McF

Yeah - it's hard getting "sentiment" readings from being on this blog...

Not enough "rose colored" glasses...

Brian the Broker said...

Andy,

If we can keep the Bears bent over into the end of Q2, then the talk over the July 4 BBQ will all be about making new highs.

Nic said...

Thanks for the wave 2 explanation.
It really has only just got going and broken out of the range. I would not be surprised if we came to that sentiment.

McFearless said...

C,

I don't think it's off the table at all right now...we'll see, it'll take a real effort to get there. I really think 1120's is a lock, I had the pattern wrong about two weeks ago when I originally said that but the price is what matters and it looks like we are going to get it.

McFearless said...

Brian,

we can only hope people are talking about new highs over the 4th, that would be shorttastic.

You going to the Powershares University outing in Philly? How about Tawney?

McFearless said...

yeah, I'm not sure our board is the best for sentiment... COT, AAII, etc, all very important this week.

So, on another note, what with a huge competitor gone, and the economy improving...shouldn't BBY have had a far better quarter?

Brian the Broker's Shapely Assistant Tawny said...

OH yesssssss.... how could I miss it? What a perfect opportunity to fleece.. I mean meet, new investors.

McFearless said...

awesome, I'll see you there, I love you guys.

Also, bring your pinky ring...I'm planning on going to Blue Martini afterward with Joe from Van Kampen and Blago from Eaton Vance.

karen said...

spy volume is truly pathetic and cmf is negative..

karen said...

cmf meaning chaikin money flow, sorry.

I-Man said...

1116 and thats the curtain call.

I-Man said...

LB is right, today will be looked back upon as "that day I should have sold."

Anonymous said...

Cramer's bearish.

McFearless said...

some advisors used today to eliminate longs that some people still had...

McFearless said...

oh look, see i have the solution in my inbox from eaton vance:

Worried About Inflation?
More Nervous About Deflation?

To help fight inflation, put this Eaton Vance Fund in your corner.

Eaton Vance Global Macro Absolute Return Fund (EAGMX)* may help your clients defeat both.


So WOW, a fund that goes up no matter what!

Brian, put me in THAT.

Leftback said...

You would be a little silly not to reduce risk on a day like today. This move probably isn't done but it isn't going to go up in a straight line.

Bucky Bounce on crude "inventories" anyone? It's time we had a BUILD isn't it? Obama has just found a brand new supply - at the beach.

The bond market isn't really buying this equity rally.

karen said...

zerohedge
Matt Simmons embarrassed his old firm upgraded BP, still thinks BP will go to 0
1 minute ago via TweetDeck

Leftback said...

Maicon. 1-0.

That was tasty. Kim Jong Il is on the phone yelling NEAR POST... GOALIE should never be beaten at the NEAR POST !

and he would be correct.

arbitrage789 said...

Anon @ 3:33

That gives some confidence to stay long.

karen said...

well, i called this day wrong.. and it is not even sunny. see you all later!

John Terry said...

Bye, Karen. Looks breezy on your beach...

ELANO might be the best Brazilian of the bunch. Although when he played in England he was artistic but he DIDNT LIKE IT UP HIM.

Nic said...

SPX now positive for the year by one basis point.
That will get the buyers in :)

Johnny Retail said...

You bet. This is my kind of market.
I am calling Brian.

Smarter than Leftback... said...

The sound of the vuvuzela is:

A. Like an Obama speech, very irritating.
B. Like an unemployment check, very welcome.
C. Secretly sending subliminal messages to your
Gaussian cerebral cortex.
D. Ruining the world cup.

CV said...

Vuvuzela said...

They don't "ring the bell" at the top...

They blow me...

TWSWB said...

CV

BLOW ME.

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