Morning Audibles 4.30.10 - Holy Cow! Criminal Charges?









From NYT
"Federal prosecutors have opened an investigation into trading at Goldman Sachs, raising the possibility of criminal charges against the Wall Street giant, according to people familiar with the matter.


While the investigation is still in a preliminary stage, the move could escalate the legal troubles swirling around Goldman."


From Bloomberg
“In order to proceed criminally in a case, you need to have very clear evidence” said Jensen, a former deputy chief of the criminal division of the U.S. attorney’s office in the Southern District of New York who served on that office’s securities fraud task force.


Oh wait... WRONG GOLDMAN


Goldman "Sachs" Chief Executive Officer Lloyd Blankfein said in an interview with CBS News this week: “It is my belief that nothing unethical and nothing illegal has happened, but I will tell you if I discovered something like this, or any senior person at Goldman Sachs discovered illegal or unethical behavior, we would eliminate that from the firm.” (just like OJ)...


"Let me introduce you to my little friend"


While this is all fun to see splashed on to the front pages of all the news outlets, CV has "high skepticism" that anything significant will come of it. In fact, it might all just be the latest in the never ending diversionary tactics by the TPTB/Administration to keep you looking in the wrong direction...


"The major has been shot! Round up all the usual suspects!"


But it is fun to contemplate the possibilities. (can I take my money with me to jail?)


"Get your hands off my money"


In the end, though. It'll probably wind up "business as usual"


"These aren't the bankers you are looking for"


Because they've convinced everyone they're TOO BIG TO JAIL!




And even if some criminal charges were to stick, the perpetrators would most likely just end up sharing some bunk time at a CLUB FED type facility.



So it's best that we save our "HOLY COW's" for when they truly mean something (like the fact that it's the weekend, and your lawn needs mowing)...



Look...a chart! HOLY COW (and your lawn still needs mowing)...









375 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   201 – 375 of 375   Newer›   Newest»
Anonymous said...

karen, I think Doug Kass said to buy GS after the hearing earlier this week. Not sure about Cashin.

karen said...

hey, cv.. look at the distribution days in jnk.. three since April 16..
and today makes a third dragonfly type doji..on little volume. there are no buyers.. just distributors..

Mannwich said...

@DL: I'm somewhat inclined to agree but this thing with GS could well take on a life of its own here.

CV said...

@karen

I know right!

Mannwich said...

TLT chugging along. Mannwich approves.

CV said...

@anon (1:54)

I think you're right about that...

Also, BOVE put a call on that too (so what else is new)?

CV said...

@DL

(other page)...

I can't see holding ANYTHING during P3...

Then again... You don't think it's going to happen for awhile...

karen said...

i just found an interesting site: http://www.hedgeanalyst.com/

thanks, anon, maybe that was it..

and did you all know that C had the lowest year end target on the S&P?

http://decodingwallstreet.blogspot.com/2010/04/where-will-s-500-index-end-year.html

DL said...

CV,

Holding anything during P3...?

A short in almost anything would be good.

And no, I don't see a P3 happening before the treasury yield curve inverts.

CV said...

If it holds this 1194.18 (which is the .021 retrace from 1219.8), and has a small H&S look going back 6 days...

I'm going to YELL!

CV said...

@DL

We'll be well in to P3 by the time the yield inverts...

DL said...

CV @ 2:08

I'm willing to bet a truckload of cheeseburgers on that.

mcHAPPY said...

@DL

No offense meant by this, but arbitrarily picking round numbers to buy and hold at is not sound 'investing' IMO. I've already stepped in front of an oncoming train once and stayed on the rails as 107 cars passed over me before I picked up what was left of myself to avoid the last 18. It hurts man. Never again. The time to pick up GS is when nobody will touch it (not even St. Warren) and no one is calling for it to rise - except maybe Whitny.

CV said...

@DL

I'm basically saying that the yield inverting will likely be around the "3" of "3" (which will, in fact, be well into P3 because you'd have had 2 waves already)...

I'm expecting P3 to last up to two years...

I-Man said...

Somebody hit the "launch" button in EURUSD...

DL said...

McHappy,

I buy individual stocks only on rare occasions.

Sure, it would be better to buy GS at $100 than $130. I just don't think it's going to get there any time this year, or next.

Anonymous said...

@C, why it's hard to view orlder comments( When I click at oldest,older, I get a blank page). No jokes please.

CV said...

@I-Man

They'll hit "scuttle" over the weekend...

CV said...

@I-Man

IMO - It's NADA...(Eur-USD)

It's a "holiday" weekend in Europe... Most Euro "shorts" are probably COVERING into a long weekend (with chatter around about a $159 bailout)...

It's a load of crap... Even if they DO get the bailout, SO WHAT?

Was GM saved? Was AIG saved? No! They all came crying for more... So will Greece (even if they get the money)...

Then you have all the other PIIGS to worry about...

Half a percent on a Friday (in front of a holiday on Eur-USD)... Pffffft!

CV said...

@anon

I have no idea... I don't have the same problem with my browser...

Anyone else have any ideas?

karen said...

Anon, try clicking the "Oldest Older" at the bottom of thread.. the top one (the one at the top of the thread) never works for me either.

I-Man said...

I know its nothing, you know its nothing, but to someone short EURUSD... its a big move...

And enough to pull some hair out.

And enough to get the SPX to 1205.

And enough to make you want to just walk away... just in time for...

What you were already positioned for.

DL said...

I-Man,

Yeah, most currency traders use a lot of leverage. 100:1 in some cases.

I-Man said...

That's insane. They must keep pee bottles under their desk's.

karen said...

Got gold? The Suspicious Actions of Uncle Sam

karen said...

http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/us-government-taxpayers-treasury-auction-derivatives/4/30/2010/id/28058

damnit!! i hate it when my links don't work.. and i'm not retyping that <a href.. business !!!

McFearless said...

"I would ask you though, what do you think about the idea of shorting QQQQ, rather than going long FAZ"


DL, I agree with this. With CBOE put/call at 10 years lows puts are dirt cheap right now.

McFearless said...

Well, I'm out of here for the rest of the day. And, I'll leave you all with this, which is on my company home-page today:

Right now, your no. 1 job as an advisor is to help get clients back into the market and keep them invested. What will it take? Waiting is not the answer. The cost of waiting is high -- client portfolios will not recover and your practice will not grow.


So seriously guys, get out there and do some buying! The cost of waiting is high!

Nic said...

I-Man
Its pretty thin liquidity right now so it doesnt take much to move EURUSD. What normally happens after sharp dollar advances is that asian central banks whose currencies are pegged to the dollar sell their currencies and buy dollars to weaken them. Then they buy EURUSD to weaken the dollar and thereby there own currency more.
It isn't going to help the EUR there is only one way that pair is going.

mcHAPPY said...

I FINALLY DID IT!

karen said...

A good GDP recap:

http://www.housingwire.com/2010/04/30/gdp-growth-slows-in-q1-as-residential-real-estate-investments-fall/

CV said...

@I-Man

Look - Here's how it plays out I believe...

This is how much the PIIGS need to fund... (and can't) $2 Trillion...

The United States contributes 17% of the funding to the IMF... (So let's say the IMF does the whole kit & kaboodle)...

They'll let this Euro-USD thing play out until the whole $2 Trillion is accounted for (which still won't be enough - but let's PLAY ALONG that it is - like they did with GM & AIG)...

The IMF can only account for $500 billion at present, which means the US is going to have to continue to "cough up" for this until they get the full $2 trillion commitment (That'll be $340 billion we're "in it" for [US taxpayers paying for Greek pensions & what have you])...

It'll go on like it has, though, for awhile (while various "election cycles" are playing out) that key central bankers & planners are engaged in KEY meetings discussing BAILOUT plans... It's all a STALL tactic to get the elections behind them...

When the elections are over, the IMF gets it's $2 trillion, the countries live to see one more day, and the US taxpayer gets sent the bill (or, 17% of it)...

So Bernanke will then "monetize" it (as it's just another $400 billion dollar entry on Barack Obama's ever expanding list of expenditures)...

That's when the next round of DOLLAR POUNDING will occur...

Piece of cake!

karen said...

BEN, that if FO!!!

Nic said...

Is that a hanging man weekly doji on crude? Be still my beating heart.

karen said...

LOL, i meant, that IS FO!

CV said...

@McF

OK I'm going to do some across the board buying right now (just to help your firm out)... LOL

Nic said...

Its probably more hammer-like

Nic said...

McF have a great weekend!

DL said...

"That'll be $340 billion we're in it for; U.S. taxpayers paying for Greek pensions & what have you".

* * * * * *

That really pisses me off.

They'll probably never pay it back.

Mannwich said...

Might the worm be turning here?

I-Man said...

I'd say this looks a little impulsive...

CV said...

@DL

But you KNOW I'm right...don't you?

Nic said...

FXE / EUO news
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RAh9kry0-rw

DL said...

CV,

Well, $340B sounds a little on the high side. (But you might end up being right).

I-Man said...

Honing in on that 1191 Ra...

CV said...

Two levels CV is looking for as CLOSING levels on SPX today...

- Anything UNDER 1194.18 (the .021 pullback from 1219.80)...

- 1191.23 the MONTHLY 144SMA on the SPX (going all the way back to 1987)... I mentioned this line earlier in the week... We have NOT had a monthly close OVER that line since Sept '08 (LEHMAN)... The 2002 recession, even failed to close a MONTHLY candle under that line...

AmenRa said...

Nic

I'd prefer it to be a hanging man with a lower close. Makes it more bearish. But the long lower shadow adds to the bearishness also.

karen said...

speaking of monthly candles... Nic look at $wtic on the monthly.. top in? I pray...

Nic said...

I hope Karen. $87.00 was a 127 fib extension so if it doesn't hold then we go to $91.70, gulp

Nic said...

Thanks Ra-man, I agree bearish and the level we bounced off two weeks ago adds to it.

Mannwich said...

I thought this was interesting. Restaurants showing signs of life. I can attest the same here in the Twin Cities. Most places seem pretty busy lately.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/04/restaurnant-index-shows-expansion-in.html

karen said...

Jeff, that's all part of the consumer spending binge! Even I went out for sushi last night!

DL said...

Mannwich @ 2:58:

Peter Lynch wrote a book called "Up Yours" (or maybe it was "one up on wall street", I can't remember).

Anyway, you can put some of those observations to work.

CV said...

Meanwhile...

While nobody was looking (from this earlier comment)...

re: GS

low= 47.41
fibo 2.058= 144.98 (1st target)
monthly 3LB mid= 131.67 (2nd target)
fibo 1.618= 124.12 (3rd target)

Closing beneath one should see GS trade down to the next.


GS tagged 144.44 (and is heading down towards there again)...

Nic said...

Sushi ... my second favourite S-word

Nic said...

I'm not sure what this oil spill is doing to crude. Perhaps short BP long shrimp futures is a better trade

DL said...

long shrimp futures..


LOL.

spoonman said...

Who wants to be short over the weekend? Not me.

Mannwich said...

@karen: I've been out the last three nights and am going out for sushi this evening. Four nights in a row is unheard of for me but spring definitely draws us out of our caves here in the hinterlands. Many of the people I've encountered out lately are still going out quite a bit even though they are unemployed. Weird time. I know I've said it before, but it's true...

CV said...

@Manny

The OTHER HALF of the restaurants are closed...

In 2007... If you have 10 restaurants that serve 50 patrons with a 90% occupancy rate = 450 patrons...

Now, if 6 have closed, you'd have to have 75 patrons (per restaurant) to make it even (IOW - 50 + 25 standing outside waiting)...

And now, for those restaurants still in operation... You, as a patron, have no way of knowing HOW MUCH, per customer, is spent on the dinner tab (or even if they're just charging it on the credit card they never intend to pay - or are paying with the money they're not paying their mortgage with)...

Gotta look deeper...

CV said...

I should have said... If 6 "remain open" (4 closed)...

karen said...

Sushi is my second favorite S word, too! Sh*tty is my third, though.. LOL

Mannwich said...

And there are plans for 2 more new restaurants in our neighborhood, in addition to the new sushi place that just opened.

CV said...

I'm long "Bubba Gump"

DL said...

spoonman,

Go long Merkel. Buy a few calls.

Mannwich said...

Of course, we share the corner with the wealthiest suburb in Minneapolis (but we're on "the wrong side of the tracks" on the Minneapolis side).... ;-)

Bifurcated economy anyone?

I-Man said...

The only meat I've eaten this year:

Salmon, I caught.

Ahi sashimi, I bought.

Mannwich said...

@cv: I hear you and that's likely true in many places but our neighborhood is ADDING restaurants. How can that be?

spoonman said...

Definitely don't want to be long. Go long a politician? I'll let that one slide. Although we probably get a pop on some news monday. Surprised we don't have one right here, right now into the close.

CV said...

@Mannwich

Jeff - restaurant & retail openings & closings are a dime a dozen...

Until one looks at the "cash receipts" of the business, one knows NOTHING...

Perhaps the restaurants that are opening are some entrepeneurs that believe in the GREEN SHOOTS idea because they listen to Cramer...

Plus, they're getting a deal on rent from DESPERATE commercial lot owners...

Maybe "no rent for 6 months"!

Doesn't mean the situation has changed or that ANY of them will profit... And even if they do... It'll likely come at the expense of the OTHER owners...

Churn & burn!

Nic said...

Have you noticed SPX bounced off 200week SMA? Dow poked above it intra-week but has also failed at the 200 week SMA.

CV said...

@Jeff

& don't get me wrong... I'm not CRITICIZING your "boots on the street" observation... (what you saw is what you saw)... Frankly, I sort of see mildly the same thing around here...

BUT!

Look... It's springtime, the weather is finally nice (after a brutal winter)... People want to get out... The stock market recovery has lasted over a year...

Sure! some people might want to go out and blow $100 - $200 on dinner...

I'd be careful about interpreting it as a TREND tho... (not that you said that)...

karen said...

This takes the cake:

Oil prices settle above $86 on improving economy
Crude ends the week above $86 on GDP, consumer spending data; concern over Gulf supply lines

On Friday April 30, 2010, 3:13 pm
NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil prices climbed above $86 Friday as the government reported the economy expanded in the first quarter and on growing concern that an oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico will affect supply.

mcHAPPY said...

@spoonman

I will be holding short, unless we have a break out in the next 40 minutes to the VERY upside.

The market would least expect no bailout for Greece. I am rooting for this.

Insert full disclosure here.

Mannwich said...

I hear you, cv. Just throwing it out there to ensure that we're all asking these questions and "taking the other side" to ensure there are no fatal "blind spots".

The town next door is mostly older money, so they've probably taken far less of a hit than other places, so maybe economic activity in the area is just shifting (not growing in totality in the metro area) to where the pain was felt the least?

spoonman said...

I'm thinking about holding on here in spite of the fact that I don't want to for just that reason, McHappy. Still, I think DL's right - higher probability that Merkel finds religion and there's some positive news pop on monday. Might be a pop to fade, though.

karen said...

on my three year weekly chart, i'm seeing the SPX holding below the 200 MA @ 1224.20 for three straight weeks.. and this week is potentially a bearish engulfing .. as well as a lower low in the spx, week over week (1181.62)

CV said...

@karen

LMAO - Yeah people... Let's all REJOICE that the economy is looking so good we don't mind paying $10 a gallon for gas!

Nic said...

I hear PPT targeting GS Karen

karen said...

the 34 ema is 1182.80.. we bounced off that line twice this month.. but the 13 ema is rolling over.. MACD and RSI negative as well.

this day is turning out great!

spoonman said...

Nic, I think what you meant to say was "I hear PPT is GS..."

CV said...

NOT ONE PERSON seems interested in my 144SMA of the SPX going back to 1987...

- Not the fact that we BROKE HARD under that level during the Lehman crisis

- Not that that was SUPPORT for 9 months in 2002

- Not the fact that we're 1 S&P point from that level right now on a MONTHLY closing candle with 30 minutes of trading to go...

Not a peep! Sheesh! :-/

Nic said...

I am trying not to get excited about that weekly chart Karen but ...

karen said...

Sorry, CV.. I think I'm not getting it..i'll re-read your post and make my own chart.. cuz i need a picture.

Nic said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Nic said...

OK I see it now. That MA was good support!

CV said...

@karen @NIC

I'll put it up in the thread (and take down the HOLY COW girl)... That ought to endear me to both of you forever! :-)...

mcHAPPY said...

Wouldn't it be safe to have the following thoughts:

IMF/EU bail out Greece.

IMF would get first dibs in any default or restructuring of debt.

Bond markets know this, say "No thanks."

Yields soar - again.

Good news quickly turns bad.

Thoughts?

karen said...

CV, i'm getting 1192.24 for the 144.. but that's on a twenty year, monthly..

I-Man said...

CV... I already had it tatted on my arm.

McFearless said...

I'm back, had to watch the close at home.

For C,


PEEP.

mcHAPPY said...

"Not a peep! Sheesh! :-/"

Echo of my sentiment on SAFE Banking Act in MSM. Very little buzz out there.

karen said...

Happy, i'm all over that amendment.. i emailed it out! but weird WSJ blog has not a peep.. what about Bloomberg??

spoonman said...

I think the knee jerk reaction will be higher on any kind of plan beyond another group hug and a round of kumbaya. If all we get is another cry-it-out session and no moola, then things will go south, which will be quite gratifying if you're short. I don't think they'll let that happen. I'm sort of in a quandary.

karen said...

LUV that chart! CV..

CV said...

@karen

It's around there somewhere 1191-1192...

Anyway... I took "the girl" down and put "the chart" up (so that chart in in the thread for everyone to see - above)

karen said...

You know, the DIA had two huge distribution days recently.. today is probably a third..

McFearless said...

spoon,

could have said the exact same thing in 2008, "they won't let it happen"

If the trend for greece is down, bailouts dont' matter, the market is going where it is going, bailouts or not.

CV said...

@McHappy

I responded MULTIPLE times to SAFE in this thread...

Read all the comments... (I kno - it's 300 - but I can't help that)...

Nic said...

McH
I think the Sunday IMF meeting has been postponed and the German Govt unlikely to do anything this weekend because May 01st is a big holiday in Germany. I am hoping this means we are less likely to have our 7th "Greece is saved" rally this weekend.
IMF loans always get first dibs I think, the negotiation is over whether the EU ones will as well which doesn't make the problem of the banks go away for the German Govt.

karen said...

I'm afraid to say "I told you so!" so I'll just say "Buy the Dip!" instead.

mcHAPPY said...

Hopefully Germany follows Iceland's lead

McFearless said...

Karen,

I could probably get you an executive roll at my company with that kind of language (3:42)

DL,

what is that if GS is at $130 buy and hold crap. lol.

spoonman said...

This is true, Ben, but people are just nervous now, not panicking, and so I feel like a major news event can still give a little pop(although not change the overall trend of things). The fact that we're sinking into the close makes me think that (moderately) bad news will be baked into the cake over the weekend. A pop on bailout news would be a good fade, though. In fact, good news of a bailout would make for a nice story to go with a top.

CV said...

@McF

Do me a favor (I know YOU will do this because you like to study things)...

read my (10:28) comment (with links) this morning (on SAFE)...

Here is the link to that comment...

http://traders-anonymous.blogspot.com/2010/04/morning-audibles-43010-holy-cow.html?showComment=1272637693189#c8577484065822503685

You too McHappy (if you missed it - it was directed at you)...

mcHAPPY said...

Yes, Nic knew that about IMF preference. Didn't make that clear above which is why I think a bailout leads to yields soaring and no bailout leads to yields soaring.

I can totally see this not getting done - again, much like the March 16 and subsquent deadlines that followed.

I-Man said...

Could have had yourself a bottle of Reposado, had you taken me up on the bet, Mistress...

What a missed opportunity...

CV said...

@karen

Now that you've seen that 144SMA MONTHLY chart...

You know what's "scary" about it?

It means that there was NO MACD DIVERGENCE on the 666 bottom from that longer perspective...

It means we're going to LOWER LOWS than the LB bottom... eventually...IMO

McFearless said...

the waves are looking better than any other correction since March folks. The initial sell-off was five waves, the wave 2 retrace and wave 3 looked to subdivide, the wave 2's of lesser degree didn't retrace more than the larger wave 2's. best form we've had.

I'll be rocking to this into the close:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KVilgNifLcM

karen said...

i won't be happy until the spx busts 1170.

CV said...

@I-Man

I took you up on it!

I'll take the bottle :-)

spoonman said...

Looking past the news and what might be, does today's action look impulsive to you, Ben? That is probably a more important question than what the newspapers will say on Monday...

I-Man said...

Lets go for 1183!

McFearless said...

that's March 09, per my 3:47.

karen said...

CV, what do you mean about the "no macd divergence".. i'm not following..

CV said...

@McF @spoonman

"I don't think they'll let that happen"

LOL - Not to 'tease' you spoonman, but when I read that I IMMEDIATELY thought of

Paulsons bazooka! :-)

spoonman said...

ha, my comment came up late. Thanks...

McFearless said...

spoon,

check out Dan's chart of COMPQ since I can't post any. I don't have many problems with this count, I'm thinking Andy wouldn't either, maybe a few minor squibbles:

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/S9sutuuLAwI/AAAAAAAAFBM/gornAmFIDrQ/s1600/nasdaq1.png

Nic said...

I think German Parliament will vote no when the time comes but who knows. If it passes and Greece is bailed out then the shorts will target Portugal or Italy next to force their hand.

spoonman said...

haha, s'ok CV. You're right. But even Paulson's bazooka was good for a short squeeze, if I recall.

McFearless said...

one thing I know is holding a lot of people back were the new highs that NYSE showed recently but EWI points out that we've had serious market tops before when breadth looked alright.

Nic said...

This is how I feel about the charts McF:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hScEAauZgZg

McFearless said...

spoon,

no doubt it was, we had huge swings around then, but they are virtually impossible to time I think. I'd perhaps try and take a shot for Monday but as Nic said, big holiday overseas.

As it stands, I'm thinking for many of these places that vacation is more important than money....so may call it a "right" in fact.

mcHAPPY said...

@CV

Started looking at it earlier and got disrupted by the day job. I see what you are saying.

Isn't it something like only a very small percentage of Americans holdings (like under 10%)in T's?

Wouldn't a major crash *cough*P3*cough* cause a flight to safety?

Wouldn't the last 'safe' investment be that which is 100% backed by the US gov't?

An equity crash would certainly spur a dollar rally?

Breaking through March '09 on the slope of hope would certainly have people running for return of capital rather than return on capital.

Is it possible 401k's may have a mandatory percentage held in T's?

What do you think?

McFearless said...

Sweet Buttercup Nic.

karen said...

S&P Downgrades $2.7 Bln Of CDOs Largely Made Of RMBS
3:55 PM ET 4/30/10 | DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

Standard & Poor's Ratings Services downgraded $2.7 billion of collateralized debt obligations as mortgage delinquencies and losses continue to mount.

Lowered were 24 tranches of six U.S. CDOs, while another 11 classes from five CDOs saw their ratings affirmed.

Five of the six CDOs with downgraded tranches are collateralized in large part by residential mortgage-backed securities and other structured-finance securities. The other is a high-grade CDO of asset-backed securities primarily made up of investment-grade RMBS.

CV said...

@karen

Don't you follow "wave divergences" on MACD?

Like on RSI... the wave amplitudes diverge...

Usually something is signaling it's ready to turn the corner when you get a LOWER PRICE together with a shallower amplitude in either RSI or MACD...

It happens over ANY timeframe...

These aren't necessarily good "timing" indicators, but they can tell you when EXHAUSTION has set in...

For example (look at the chart I put up in the thread)... The MACD had a WAVE AMPLITUDE peak in June of 1999... The WAVE AMPLITUDE peak was lower in the June-Oct '07 timeframe (even though the SPX rose to higher levels)...

It's just like BUYING ON LOW VOLUME...

In any case, the AMPLITUDE LOW, from the 666 low, was hit in unison...

Years in the future, I expect, we'll see a LOWER THAN 666 print on the SPX (but with a shallower amplitude of WAVE on MACD)...

That will tell me that we're nearing a bottom...

Mannwich said...

Yikes. Quite a close here. A preview to "sell in May and go away?" Will it work this year?

mcHAPPY said...

@spoon and Ben

"no doubt it was, we had huge swings around then, but they are virtually impossible to time "

If that point comes I would be basing my positions on weekly counts versus daily. That would probably require excess cold steel nearly every second day. haha.

I-Man said...

Hmm...

I just saw the SPY bid jump about 20 cents as soon as the bell rang...

I dont like that.

CV said...

WHEW!

Huge sigh of relief from CV...

People... CV is VERY focused on this 144SMA MONTHLY phenomenon...

As far as I'm concerned... May can do whatever the hell it wants... But I don't want to see ANY monthly closes higher than that SMA...

CV said...

@McHappy

I'll get to your (3:56) in a bit...

I need to take a minute to "chill" here...

GOOD COMMENTS TODAY everyone... THANKS! :-)

McFearless said...

C,

From that early post, interesting charts, missed those before.

What could go wrong.

Re: Dan's chart, I think the close showed he labeled that red 5 too early possibly.

spoonman said...

Can't go broke making money. I closed out to cash for the weekend. To many things I don't know enough about going on. Good luck to you both DL and mcHappy(not sure how that works). Not going to kick myself if we tank on Monday. I'm going to stay ninja until Mr. Market justifies more conviction on my part.

mcHAPPY said...

Congrats CV and Ra!

1191.23 and 1191.94 broke!

Break on through!

Nic said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
DL said...

Nic @ 3:51

"If it passes and Greece is bailed out then the shorts will target Portugal or Italy next to force their hand".

* * * * * *

Agree, this is not over by a long shot.

spoonman said...

This weekend I am short cold steel, long cold beers for a pair trade.

McFearless said...

alright I gotta go for real now. See you all on Monday.

Have an awesome weekend.

I-Man said...

Ha...

You sexy thang.

mcHAPPY said...

@I

"Hmm...

I just saw the SPY bid jump about 20 cents as soon as the bell rang...

I dont like that. "

Happened to me yesterday with FAZ. After the bell it dropped from 11.44 to 11.35. mcHAPPY I was not but it worked out, atleast for today.

Nic said...

The only thing is ... the CFTC data just released shows EUR short contracts have hit a new record, 89,000 contracts which can often mean a bit of a s q e e z e

I-Man said...

Nic,
Do you get that emailed to you from CFTC?

DL said...

"The only thing is..."

Yeah, there's always a fly in the ointment somewhere.

AmenRa said...

A SPX close below 1191.94 (weekly 3LB mid) and below 1190.90 (the 1.764 fibo using low). Take half off the table and see what develops. Now go outside!!!

Nic said...

No its put out every friday on the cftc website

Anonymous said...

Missed the fireworks today, but was on the right side of that EUR squeeze overnight.

bob

spoonman said...

Greece to Merkel: "It's bad you know". For Friday night music.

CV said...

@McHappy (4:04)

I just needed that to happen for TODAY'S CLOSE ONLY...

I'll worry about it again on May 28th (the last TRADING DAY of May)...

Weird, people... MEMORIAL DAY, this year is EXACTLY May 31st (Monday)...

LATE

CV said...

@AmenRa

HIGH 5 BROTHER! :-)

Nic said...

From TWSWB
William Black with Bill Moyers
http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/04232010/watch.html

CV said...

CV is taking off right now and heading for THE FARM...

Gotta pick up THE BOAT from being serviced and plan to do a little running up and down the Potomac this weekend...

KENTUCKY DERBY tomorrow...

CV will put $20 on the nose of SUPER SAVER

I'll probably check in AMENRA's CORNER later on


Peace! :-)

CV said...

@Nic

"TWSWB"... Lmao! :-)

CV said...

@Nic @all

I don't know why... But the first song that popped in my head (upon signing off) was this...

FRIDAY NIGHT MUSIC

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tTjKWq9Gges

karen said...

CV, per your "Years in the future, I expect, we'll see a LOWER THAN 666 print on the SPX (but with a shallower amplitude of WAVE on MACD)...

That will tell me that we're nearing a bottom..."

First, I do follow divergence of course.. and certainly see what you pointed out with respect to the previous highs. The future remains to be seen however.. that 666 was pretty radical at the time.. if there is a retest of that bottom.. i shudder to think.. but we will be watching that divergence won't we!

And, thanks for helping me out on that.. at first i was just focusing on the non-divergence... the amplitude of 2001-2, 788 low and the deeper amplitude of 666 low..

karen said...

oh come on! the only song for today is this one! Black Friday

karen said...

Nic, your second video posting was better! laughing.. i didn't get the other one.. :)

Nic said...

Can believe someone else has thought of my long shrimp futures idea? This just posted:
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2010/04/30/shrimp-futures-soar-on-gulf-oil-spill/

I-Man said...

Any chart requests for the weekend?
(Besides SPX)

I-Man said...

(And shrimp futures...)

CV said...

@karen

I'm not GONE yet (to the farm)... I'm PACKING to go...

On the LOWER LOWS...

I see it this way...

2008 was when the HEDGE FUNDS/IB's were liquidating... (from the "the naughts" leverage_...

The LOWER LOWS? (you can already see and hear it now in the way MOMO's [even BR] talk)... That's when you're going to see JOHNNY sell...

Not that I want to call BR a "momo" (I don't think of him that way)...

But what I AM saying is that money managers (as we have seen the past year)... are still not IN TOUCH with Johnny...

Most retail... TRUTH BE TOLD... is still not really IN this rally...

They're hanging on for what its worth... Seeing the averages go up... Saying to themselves... "Please GOD, let me just get back to break even"... Momos are helping them by saying "all is well - you're OUT OF THE WOODS" (cause they lose their jobs if the market turns again)...

Johnny is OUT on the next dip... There's nothing the momos will be able to do because, in truth, they're playing with JOHNNY's bat & ball...

When HE goes home (which he'll need to do because he's the one who has to manage what's lest of his cash for the rest of his life)... It's game over...

We'll go LOWER eventually...

But the MACD will reflect divergence...

2008 = MOMO low
20?? = Johnny low (where you'll see the shallower wave)...

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