Morning Audibles 4.16.10

We're getting VERY CLOSE to the "kill zone" that I'd identified on my post of April 7th...

Reprint of APRIL 6th Chart.

Today's open market trading will be DAY 49. Remember also, that the 'correction' in January began in EARNEST on the Tuesday after OPEX WEEK. Today is is an OPEX Friday.

Some say history doesn't repeat itself, but it RHYMES...

A blast from the past. 

The P2 "rally" wave (after the Stock Market crash in October, 1929 lasted until April 16th, 1930). So HAPPY 80th Birthday!

Is It April 1930 All Over Again?

That last leg up to the very top in April 1930 took on a similar slow-motion grind like the recent one. From the top in April 1930, investors and traders experienced 27 months of hell as the Dow completely collapsed until it finally hit the bottom in July 1932.

What’s interesting is the DJIA had several failed rallies (+19.3%, +27%, +31%, +39%, and +28%) on its way to falling 86% from that 1930 top. 

If the DJIA continues to repeat the 1929-32 sequence of market events, we’re talking about a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 1500 somewhere in 2012.

The first loss of 7729 points on the DJIA from October 2007 to March 2009 will look like an absolute picnic if this final down leg in fact materializes. The good news? From 1929-32 there were several mini bull market moves mixed in with that 86% decline.

But everyone KNOWS that will never happen again, right? And even if it does, everything will be fine and dandy in the world, and you can just sit there all the while in front of your trading platform with a slice of pizza in your hand, and a 2 litre bottle of coke by your side...

I expect to see a lot of George Soros types running around within 27 months from now. Let's all exchange e-mails so we can all buy property together in the Hamptons for when that day arrives!