Morning Audibles

Where do we go from here?

Trading in Capital Markets whereby the large bulk of trading happens between algos that are flooded almost daily by what might as well be described as "free cash" can pretty much do damage to any models that even the most experienced trader might have cobbled during a lifetime of observation...

It is still true, however, that machines & policy are ultimately things that are the stuff of human minds... As such, maybe there still exist some faint echoes of past patterns & behaviors...

Here's one that I dug up and put in the April 16th, 2010 thread... (10 days before the 2010 highs that were hit on April 26th)...

With respect to that chart, here's what the SPX looks like in the past 50 days...

In the land of Milk & Honey... You must put them on the table...

 

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: Somehow they found a way to redirect me back out to sea…for now.

SPX
Hanging man day (no more calls from the governor at the last second). Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Tested and held 1194.18 (the .021 fibo from high). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1185.62). The monthly 3LB reversal has been placed on IR. QE2infinity.



DXY
Spinning top day (morning star?). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held the 85.4% retrace at 76.29. Still below 78.41 (.0557 from low). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 78.18).



VIX
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above SMA(21) but no test of SMA(55). Below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 18.93). Daily 3LB now trending up. Broke back in to the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Bearish short day. Back below SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of new 0% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1322.60).



EURUSD
Bullish long day again. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding its 61.8% retrace at 1.3899. Back above SMA(21). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 1.3732).



JNK
Bullish long day (closed the gap). Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Trading range is still between the Gann 3x1 and 4x1. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.88).



10YR YIELD
Spinning top day. The 0.0% fibo retrace at 23.59 is the line in the sand. Back below the weekly 3LB rev (26.88) but held SMA(55). Midpoint above EMA(10). Recaptured the 14.6% retrace at 26.00. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.95).



DJ TRANS AVG
Bullish long day. Holding above the upper trend line and all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 4734.18).




CRB
Doji day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Still failing the Gann 1x1. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 301.29).




XLF
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above SMA(21) and sniffed at SMA(144). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 14.89). Resolved triangle/wedge higher. Sugarhoneyicetea.



TLT
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Closed below SMA(144). Below its 38.2% retrace and all trend lines. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 100.27). Falling/declining wedge has broken to the downside.

LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The QE2 Bond Report 11.3.10

LB will not pretend to explain everything that happened today in Bond Land, but the gist of it is this. A rumour was floated this morning, by the LIES MAN himself on CNBC, that QE2 might be only $300B. This reduced inflation expectations and triggered buying of 10s b/c 10s30s is a measure of inflation expectations and it is at record wides. When the FOMC statement came along with $600B these trades had to be reversed, and the long end was sold and IG corporates went with it. Meanwhile, the general risk-on trade was reflected in HY being bid.

Corpies: LQD -0.33%; AGG -0.02%; JNK 0.47%; HYG 0.33%;
Govies: TLT -2.04%; IEI 0.28%; TIP -0.18%
Hedgies: TBT 3.93%

LB is glad he didn't trade this. From here we would be happy to fade rallies in TLT, and we expect the primary drivers of the US bond market to be POMOs and auctions. Study up, kids, and you too can pick up a few pennies ahead of oncoming steamrollers. Be aware that problems in Europe can flare up at any time and would lead to demand for Bunds and USTs, in a "flight to quantity".

IT CAN NEVER DIE. THERE ARE NO KNOWN WAYS TO DESTROY IT. IT FEEDS OFF THE BLOOD OF FIAT CURRENCIES.

Morning Audibles

You know that feeling that you get sometimes, when a particular event occurs (like 9/11, or the Kennedy assassination)... Or even when the Cubs win the World Series (no wait, strike that, the Cubs never do that)... Or when Obama wins the election (well  - the charm worked on Peggy Jospeh -  but not me)...

Anyway, you KNOW that feeling when it happens... Like, you know you'll ALWAYS remember where you were and what you were doing in that EXACT MOMENT...

To cut to the chase (after that long intro)... I got NOTHING along the lines of those feelings by watching the election returns last night... It wasn't like "Oh my God - Somebody is MAKING HISTORY here"... Instead, it was just a bunch of red squares being filled in in graphical seats where blue ones used to exist...

One thing that IS interesting to me, though... Is that I like to see how people handle DEFEAT... So - ON PURPOSE - I watched the election returns on MSNBC... I just had to see Chris Matthews, Keith Olberman, and Rachel Maddow, sitting together at a desk, & watch their reactions as their new world order representatives were going down in flames... And they trying to calculate, IN REAL TIME, what it might mean for their RATINGS (because that's what's most important after all)... After that, what HORRIBLE things they could begin to SEED AMERICAN minds with now that "hope & changers" (who distanced themselves from Obama policies as much as they could in the run-up) have been replaced with boogeymen...

The bottom line... If you saw what I saw (on that channel anyway)... It seemed to be an almost complete denial of what was occurring... Whenever a "tea partier" went down, they bandwagoned to no end in attempt to deny the thought process (all whisked away by comments like... "Well - the Republican outspent the Democrat 4-1", or, "see America - everyone thinks tea partiers are KOOKS)... Instead, the attempt was clearly to paint the picture that most Americans would rather opt for "the middle" and not those EXTREMISTS...

I've got news for you Rachel, Chris, & Keith... You stand so far off the charts LEFT, that MIDDLE to you is somewhere in the normal realms of left (that's the litmus that you've placed yourselves in)...

I frankly think that Americans can handle a little bit of BOTH (a little left & a little right)... But the last 4 years of Congress saw the country pulled SO FAR LEFT (aided and abetted by the election of Barack Hussein Obama) two years ago, people were basically saying... "Whoops - we went too far"...

Now we get to see what kind of so-called LEADER we really elected in 2008... If people are expecting any IMMEDIATE outcomes, my advice is to not hold your breath... Frankly, I still think there is some UNDOING to be "done" still before any mending might commence (if it ever does)... A lot of it will be up to Obama himself (who, perhaps, finds himself at the White House requisition window asking to trade in his RUBBER STAMP for a VETO PEN)... His "economic dream team" is gone, his chief of staff is gone, there may be (anecdotally), some in-fighting by party members, as to his own job come 2012...

Do Americans care? Apparently so... But I think everyone will find out that they're actually a lot STURDIER than we were all led to believe by these clowns... We don't need messiahs & governance to roll us out of bed... And even if we're a little cranky... We still try to say "Good Morning"!

Ridin' on the City of New Orleans

Illinois Central Monday morning rail

Fifteen cars and fifteen restless riders

Three conductors and twenty-five sacks of mail

All along the southbound odyssey the train pulls out of Kankakee

And rolls along past houses farms and fields

Passing trains that have no name and freightyards full of old black men.

And graveyards full of rusted automobiles

Good morning America how are you? say don't you know me I'm your native son

I'm the train they call the City of New Orleans

And I'll be gone five hundred miles when the day is done

Dealin' cards with the old men in the club car

Penny a point ain't no one keepin' score

Pass the paper bag that holds the bottle

Feel the wheels grumblin' 'neath the floor

And the sons of Pullman porters, and the sons of engineers

Ride their father's magic carpet made of steel

Mothers with their babes asleep, rockin' to the gentle beat

And the rhythm of the rails is all they feel

Good morning America, how are you?

Say don't you know me, I'm your native son

I'm the train they call the City of New Orleans

I'll be gone five-hundred miles when the day is done

Night time on the City of New Orleans

Changin' cars in Memphis, Tennessee

Halfway home, we'll be there by mornin'

Thru the Mississippi darkness rollin' down to the sea

But all the towns and people seem to fade into a bad dream

And the steel rails still ain't heard the news

The conductor sings his songs again

The passengers will please refrain

This train has got the disappearin' railroad blues.

Goodnight America, how are you?

Say don't you know me, I'm your native son

I'm the train they call the City of New Orleans

I'll be gone five-hundred miles when the day is done

SPY 5 minute chart (with AH prints)

as of yesterdays close, it was still TRYING to push higher, but we'll see 

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: I've just appeared on the radar. Quickly moving up the East Coast.

SPX
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Tested and failed 1194.18 (the .021 fibo from high). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1184.71). The monthly 3LB reversal has been placed on IR. QE2infinity.



DXY
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below the 76.4% retrace at 77.60. Still below 78.41 (.0557 from low). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 76.65).



VIX
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above SMA(21) but no test of SMA(55). Below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 18.93). Daily 3LB now trending up. The "no fear" zone is in the rear view mirror.



GOLD
Bullish short day (barely confirmed bearish thrusting). Still above SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of new 0% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1322.60).



EURUSD
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Held its 61.8% retrace at 1.3899. Back above SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.4049).



JNK
Bullish short day (couldn't even close in the gap). Above all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Trading range is still between the Gann 3x1 and 4x1. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.88).



10YR YIELD
Bearish short day. The 0.0% fibo retrace at 23.59 is the line in the sand. Back below the weekly 3LB rev (26.88) but above SMA(55). Midpoint above EMA(10). Failed the 14.6% retrace at 26.00. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.95).



DJ TRANS AVG
Bullish long day resolving doji higher. Holding above the upper trend line and all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 4734.18).




CRB
Bullish short day (shooting star shot down). Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Still failing the Gann 1x1. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 300.31).



SLV
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. No test of 0% retrace. Confirmed bearish thrusting. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 22.59).

LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The QE2 Bond Report 11.2.10

Trading was brisk in fixed income as Ben Bernanke prepared to announce asset purchases in a variety of asset classes, including and not limited to, Treasuries, corporate bonds, and mortgage backed securities. "I will even buy my own jock strap if it helps prevent deflation" offered the Chairman to CNBC reporter Melissa Francis as he entered the FOMC's monthly meeting. In the bond pits in Chicago, there were several bids entered for JCKSTRP.01

Corpies: LQD 0.47%; AGG 0.18%; JNK 0.54%; HYG 0.49%;
Govies: TLT 1.31%; IEI 0.08%; TIP 0.24%
Hedgies: TBT -2.54%

We are not involved here, other than being long HYG/JNK and laughing hysterically as all assets go vertical.

IT'S COMING!!! HIDE YOUR CHILDREN!!!

Morning Audibles

ERLECTION DAY...

I'm not going to add any more words to the crap pile of of political punditry... The fact is, it seems all but impossible to EVER, seriously EVER change a person's poltical affiliation...

Now, new issues may rise to the surface, and politicians and their antics may come and go... But oftentimes, (in the end), a political affiliation ends THE INVIVIDUAL simply into a group of people that they share (or think they share) the same POV with...

It's very true that in groups of people, you ought not discuss politics & religion (if your main goal is to keep peace)...

Blogs are a unique subset of that idea because one could classify a blog as "a group", yet is is mostly either an anonymous group or virtual one... To be banned of exiled from one simply means you can find another one without much effort, or having to leave your seat...

Sometimes, a "marginalized" blogger may feel slighted, due to the fact that their OPINION that they desired to express ended up being muted, and not coming into full blossom (like that world record setting whopper fart of a lifetime that finally gets dealt just as a jet airplane passes overhead)...

In any case... Whether you're an "angry white person" (as I read teabaggers described in yesterdays thread), OR whether you're "angry Michele Obama" (who wasn't proud or happy with her country until she happened to get FLOTUS honors)... I'm sure there's a candidate for you an your bias...

Why not just vote for this guy? Here's his story... Sounds like the PERFECT candidate to me...

Jar Jar Binks is a fictional character from the Star Wars films The Phantom Menace, Attack of the Clones, Revenge of the Sith... His primary role was to provide comic relief...

Jar Jar Binks first appears in The Phantom Menace as a bumbling Gungan from the planet Naboo. After his tribe banishes him for his clumsiness, he is nearly killed by a federation transport, only to be saved at the last minute by Jedi Master Qui-Gon Jinn (Liam Neeson) and his padawan Obi-Wan Kenobi (Ewan McGregor). The Jedi persuade Jar Jar's tribe to release him to their custody as a guide. He later goes with the Jedi and Queen Padmé Amidala (Natalie Portman) to the planet Tatooine, where he meets and befriends Anakin Skywalker (Jake Lloyd).

Jar Jar later appears in the film's climactic battle scene, where he joins his fellow Gungans in defeating the evil Trade Federation. For his heroics, he is made a general in the Gungan army, and Padmé gives him a ceremonial medal.

Jar Jar's role in Attack of the Clones is much smaller, but his actions are significant. Ten years after helping to save his planet, he is a delegate for the Galactic Senate, and as such plays a role in bringing his old friends Obi-Wan and Anakin (Hayden Christensen) back to Coruscant, where he greets them with enthusiasm. Later, on the behalf of Naboo and the Jedi, he gives a speech to the assembled Senate in favor of granting Chancellor Palpatine (Ian McDiarmid) vast emergency powers (and arguably starting the wheel that led to the Clone Wars, Galactic Empire, Galactic Civil War, and all the deaths therein.)