Morning Audibles - 9.16.10

Random stuff this morning for this OPEX Thursday...

Geithner Says U.S. Examining Ways to Push China on Yuan Rise

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-16/geithner-says-u-s-to-urge-china-to-speed-up-too-slow-yuan-appreciation.html

"The U.S. yesterday filed a pair of complaints against its second-largest trading partner with the World Trade Organization, and lawmakers facing elections in November are introducing measures allowing companies to pursue sanctions against China for its currency stance..."

Busy guy, that TG... Here he was earlier in the day explaining how to avoid the "double dip"...

NO DOUBLE DIP

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YWuSi00CcNk

Nice to see he's on the same page with his boss...

Obama Turns Focus to Trade as Way to Encourage Economic Growth

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-16/obama-turns-focus-to-trade-as-way-to-encourage-economic-growth.html

"The report recommends the government increase the number trade missions and step up promotion abroad, increase financing for the purchase of U.S. exports and finish work on pending free trade accords with South Korea, Colombia and Panama.

Friction With China

The advisory group didn’t address the value of China’s currency, which labor unions and some lawmakers argue is a barrier to U.S. exports and job growth..."

Let me get this straight... We're AT ODDS with China on currency manipulation, and will probably start mouthing off about TARIFFS, yet we want to pursue FREE TRADE agreements so as to "double exports"... Did I get that right?

Oh, and what's on the table, (to "step up" exports), is to "increase financing for the purchase of U.S. exports"... Yeah sure... That strategy worked real well for LUCENT... Anybody remember them?

If not, I'm sure many will remember this...

But my question is... Why all the fuss?... I mean, weren't we FORCE FED a trillion dollar stimulus package at the beginning of this Administration (along with countless programs called, "Cash for Clunkers", "tax credits on homes", foreclosure relief, shovel ready jobs, extended unemployment benefits, bailouts, guarantees, backstops), hell, we even got a bump by employing census workers... We should be in the clear by now, right?


Where did all the money go? Where are all the jobs created?


Umm... Not HERE I guess...

FedEx Reports Profit That Trails Estimates, Announces Job Cuts

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-16/fedex-posts-profit-that-trails-estimate-announces-plan-to-cut-1-700-jobs.html

FedEx Corp., the second-largest U.S. package-shipping company, forecast earnings for the current quarter that fell short of analysts’ estimates, and said it will eliminate 1,700 jobs...

I suppose there's only one thing left to do... Just pump it into the stock market... Hell - EASY AL even said over this past summer that he'd be on board with that... Anything... Anything at all to cover up this mess...

Retirement on Hold: American Workers $6 Trillion Short

http://www.cnbc.com/id/39177278/

This comes amid recent reports indicating that a White House-created panel is considering proposals to cut Social Security benefits and raise the retirement age.

But CV is WAY too 'pessimistic', right?... My biggest problem, obviously, is that I don't see the POWER that these "behind the scenes" lever pullers actually possess... I mean hell... You can see it in STOCK PRICES right? The stock market is going up so the economy must be fine... THINK PINK (I oughta)...

Excuse me, but until I see some real acknowledgement of the problems, all I see is this...

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

Creditcane™: I'm huffing and I'm puffing. Maybe I should create an algo to do this for me.

SPX
Bullish short day. Could not escape yesterdays upper shadow. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above the trendlines (3/6/09-7/1//10), (2/5/10-5/6/10) & (4/26/10-8/9/10). Above the SMA(21), SMA(55), SMA(89) & SMA(144). Above 1110.02 (the .09 fibo from high). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1104.51). QE2infinity.



DXY
Gravestone doji day. Below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 50% retrace (but failed its weekly 3LB mid). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 82.40).



VIX
Bearish short day (but closed higher). Midpoint below EMA(10). Below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. Still below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 23.89). Trending down on daily 3LB.



GOLD
Bearish thrusting day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held the new 0% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1249.00).



JNK
Spinning top day. Barely avoided the evening star confirmation. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above 76.4% retrace. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 39.46).



10YR YIELD
Dragonfly doji day (did not want to go higher). The 0.0% fibo retrace at 24.69 has been holding. Back above the 14.6% retrace (26.94) and below the weekly 3LB mid (27.60). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.99).



AUDJPY
Bullish long day. Now above its 50.0% retrace. Tested and failed the 61.8% retrace. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 75.8043).



YEN (FXY)
Doji day. Back below the SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). New gap is resistance for BoJ. Closed below its 23.6% retrace. Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal now 119.13).



CRB
Dragonfly doji day (plus formed a bearish harami). Held the 85.4% retrace at 277.70. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 274.27).



DJ TRANS AVG
Bullish short day. Another evening star implodes. Holding above the upper trendline and all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 4401.18). Trending up on the daily 3LB.

Morning Audibles - Knock Knock

I got a kick out of this post last night...

AmenRa said...

Knock. Knock.
Wallst#1: Who is it?
Would you like to buy some cookies?
Wallst#1: Sure. How much?
Let me in and I'll show you the price list.
Wallst#2 (looking through peephole): Don't open the door! That's K-A-T-H-E-R-I-N-E!

September 15, 2010 12:46 AM

So I'm going to start by creating... THE SEQUEL...

That's right, the sharks are back... Largely due to this news overnight:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-15/japan-intervenes-for-first-time-since-2004-as-yen-surge-threatens-recovery.html

Japan Sells Yen for First Time Since 2004 to Aid Growth

We'll see what happens... We've already seen what happens when too many "geniuses" get caught on one side of the trade, like, that the rise in the stock market could all be chalked up to the "elections"... What happened overnight? Did I miss something? Did the "elections" get postponed or something?... Here's what happens when you apply that logic...

Now I don't want to be BE a jerk and get overly carried away by the KNEE JERK reaction to the yen buying news... There are obviously more things going on besides yen buying... There's, like, THE ELECTIONS... Right? The most powerful force in the universe... The only thing in the world capable of taming flying sharks... And that may end up reversing the tide backwards again...

So while you're sittin' there by the fireplace, drinkin cocoa on your BEAR SKIN rug... And you hear a knock on the door (ding dong, who is it?)... Ya just NEVER KNOW...

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

Creditcane™: (Horns playing in background): "The new color is gold".

SPX
Doji day. Start of evening star? Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above the trendlines (3/6/09-7/1//10), (2/5/10-5/6/10) & (4/26/10-8/9/10). Above the SMA(21), SMA(55), SMA(89) & SMA(144). Above 1110.02 (the .09 fibo from high). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1090.10). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bearish long day. Below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Closed below its 50% retrace (and weekly 3LB mid). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 82.40).



VIX
Spinning top day again. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. Still below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 23.89). Trending down on daily 3LB.



GOLD
Bullish long day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). It found the 0% retrace (new 0% coming soon). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1249.00).



EURUSD
Bullish long day again. Midpoint above EMA(10). Well above the 23.6% retrace. Above all SMA's. It's above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal now 1.2695).



JNK
Bearish short day. Evening star? Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Closed above 76.4% retrace. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 39.44).



10YR YIELD
Bearish long day (confirmed bearish engulfing). The 0.0% fibo retrace at 24.69 has been holding. Back below the 14.6% retrace (26.94) and below the weekly 3LB mid (27.60). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.99).



AUDJPY
Doji day again. Still above 38.2% retrace. Tested and failed the 50% retrace. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 75.5382).



DJ TRANS AVG
Doji day. Another evening star? Holding above the upper trendline and all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 4400.40). Trending up on the daily 3LB.



SLV
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Made a new 0% for the retrace. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 19.42).

Morning Audibles - 9.14.10

Morning Audibles? (do you know what an "audible" is)?... An "audible", in football terminology is what you see Peyton Manning doing at the line of scrimmage when the sees the defense and want's to call a better play...


Morning Audible for today?... NONE... We're going with the quick count (just stick with the play called in the huddle)... QB keeper "kneel down", on "1", ready, BREAK!



7:30: NFIB small business optimism index for Aug... The median forecast called for a reversal of the small drop reported for July, but the bias of forecasts is to the side of a weaker outcome.
Median forecast (of 9): 89, ranging from 85 to 89; last 88.1...

This number came at 88.8

8:30: Retail Sales (Aug)… We are at the upper end of the range of estimates, apparently translating retailers’ reports into a better outcome than our counterparts.  However, this is a difficult report to predict, especially as revisions often have overriding effects.

On total sales, GS: +0.6%; median forecast (of 76): +0.3%, ranging from -0.3% to +0.6%; last: +0.4%;

On sales ex autos, GS: +0.7%; median forecast (of 74): +0.3%, ranging from -0.2% to +0.7%; last +0.2%.

10:00: Business Inventories (Jul)… The median forecast implies a 1.5% drop in retail inventories as manufacturers’ inventories rose 1.0% and wholesale inventories rose 1.1%.

Median forecast (of 50): +0.7%, ranging from +0.1% to +1.1%; last +0.3%.

Just think... If it weren't for all that "compelling news", this thread would be totally bare...

Just think... If it weren't for all that "compelling news", this thread would be totally bare...

I'm already looking forward to the 4:00 hour so I can have my first THREAD BEER

Can't we get Dionysus to calculate some Elliott Waves for us?

Dionysus would probably say that despite a little weakness on the open this morning, the rest of the chart looks poised to ramp on Thursday & Friday, as the Primary Dealers apply 30x leverage to $27 billion dollars straight from Uncle Ben...

And the aggregate of all these things has DEMOTIVATED CV into declaring this... "National IMPLIED FACEPALM month"...

So raise your glass and drink a toast!