AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Probably should be the crying bear but keeping the bulls in check is worth a dance.

Creditcane™: Still warming the the car for the trip I'm about to take you on.

SPX
Bullish short day (failed to confirm bearish harami..again). Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Failing trend line (3/6/09-7/1/10). Holding well above the 61.8% retrace#1 (1273.65). The secondary retraces aren't in play…yet. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1296.67). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish long day (day 2 of three white soldiers). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held the 61.8% retrace#2 (74.94). Back above SMA(21). Held its weekly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 73.78).



VIX
Inverted hammer day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. Holding above its 0.0% retrace#1 (15.79). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 21.32). Extradited back to the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Easily held its 38.2% retrace#1 (1489.26) and held its 50.0% retrace#2 (1522.13). Tested and held SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1557.30). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bearish long day (day 2 of three black crows). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(21). Failing its 61.8% retrace#2 (1.4357). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.4580).



EURCHF
Bearish long day (see EURUSD). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace#2 (1.2044). Tested and failed its SMA(21). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 1.2304).



JNK
Doji day (confirmed questionable hanging man). Midpoint above EMA(10). Held SMA(233). Failing its 61.8%% retrace#1 (40.20). Failing trend line (2/5/10-2/12/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.41).



10YR YIELD
Spinning top day. Failed SMA(55). Midpoint above EMA(10). Failed its 38.2% retrace#1 (31.19). Still above the upper trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 29.09).



WTI
Bearish thrusting day. Tested and held SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed its 61.8% retrace#1 (97.75). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 90.61).



SILVER
Spinning top day. Tested and held SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still below the upper trend line. Tested and held its 61.8% retrace#1 (35.20). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.88).



BKX
Hammer day (confirmed bearish harami). Midpoint above EMA(10). Failing SMA(55). Failing its 61.8% retrace#1 (48.82). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 46.64).



HYG/LQD
Hanging man day for the 3rd time. Tested and held SMA(55). Midpoint above EMA(10). Failing its 61.8% retrace#1 (0.8312). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.8146).

IT HAS BEGUN. BE WARNED.

Morning Corner 7.6.11

VIX (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=up
high= 21.85
rev= 15.32; mid= 18.59


This is a hard one to figure out. It has not been representing risk the way it used to. A good way (for me) to use VIX is to take the six month high and low range using the top 10% and lower 10% as reversal areas. So that would mean above 29.58 is risk on & below 15.97 is risk off (IMHO). Its below its SMA(21) and forming a bullish harami on the weekly chart so it may be getting ready to bounce.



SILVER (weekly info)
new low 33.70
trend=down
low= 33.70
rev= 35.30; mid= 34.50


Silver and oil are joined at the hip it seems. As oil is heading higher this week, silver is along for the ride. It's held its 38.2% retrace#2 (34.46) for nine out of the last ten weeks. It's below the SMA(21) which has turned down but the other SMA's are still sloping upwards. It's also back above its weekly 3LB reversal price.

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: Just finished my tuneup. Time for a test drive.

SPX
Bearish harami day (damn). Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Failing trend line (3/6/09-7/1/10). Holding well above the 61.8% retrace#1 (1273.65). The secondary retraces aren't in play…yet. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1296.67). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held the 50.0% retrace#2 (74.67). Below all SMA's. Tested and held its weekly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 73.78).



VIX
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. Held above its 0.0% retrace#1 (15.79). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 21.32). Extradited back to the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Bullish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 38.2% retrace#1 (1489.26) and 61.8% retrace#2 (1514.37). Tested and held SMA(89). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1557.30). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.



EURCHF
Bearish short day (with long hair). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed its 50.0% retrace#2 (1.213). Tested and held its SMA(21) retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.1925).



JNK
Bullish short day (hanging man should gap higher). Midpoint above EMA(10). Held SMA(233). Tested and held its 61.8%% retrace#1 (40.20). Failed to hold trend line (2/5/10-2/12/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.41).



10YR YIELD
Bearish short day. Tested and held SMA(55). Midpoint above EMA(10). Held its 38.2% retrace#1 (31.19). Still above the upper trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 29.09).



WTI
Bullish long day. Tested and held SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its 38.2% retrace#2 (94.48). New high on dally 3LB (reversal is 91.02).



SILVER
Bullish long day. Tested and held SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below the upper trend line. Tested and held its 61.8% retrace#1 (35.20). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.88).



BKX
Bearish harami day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(55). Tested and failed its 61.8% retrace#1 (48.82). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 46.64).



HYG/LQD
Hanging man day again. Tested and held SMA(55). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed its 61.8% retrace#1 (0.8312). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.8146).



TLT
Bullish harami day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Held SMA(89). Trading below its upper trend line. Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace#1 (94.22). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 94.88).



AT's look at Aug Crude Futures:

IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.

Morning Corner 7.5.11

DXY (weekly info)
-no change (at mid)
trend=no
direction=up (1 bar)
high= 75.76
rev= 72.93; mid= 74.35

The weakness is the dollar was stopped at the weekly 3LB mid last week. It also avoided breaking below the 38.2% expansion. It did close below the SMA(21) but the EMA(10) crossed above it. Now that the EOQ & EOM shenanigans have ended the uptrend might be ready to continue.



GOLD (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=up
high= 1557.30
rev= 1475.00; mid= 1516.15


The week ending 6/24/11 had a high that failed to take out the high from the week ending 5/6/11. Is the top in? It's also below the SMA(21) and below the weekly 3LB mid. But all of the SMA's are still sloping up. So there's still an opportunity for gold to continue higher.



WTI (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=down
low= 91.16
rev= 114.31; mid= 102.74


Last week was the second test of the 61.8% retrace. It held. It also was able to hold the SMA(55) & SMA(89). It held the lower trend line. If it breaks lower look for 83.81 as support and if higher 101.82 as resistance.

Weekend Post: 4th of July Edition

Some things are worth reading again .... as in the beginning of the Declaration of Independence:

"When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.--That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, --That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.--Such has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States."

For the whole document please see the U.S. Archives here:  http://www.archives.gov/exhibits/charters/declaration_transcript.html
For a good history of the events surrounding those "early" days, one should read "1776" and "John Adams" by David McCullough.  Those books are brilliant and moving accounts of our early history.  [They caused me to shed a few tears while reading.]
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The first offering for the weekend is a little S&P500.  I should be able to do some Silver and Gold by tomorrow.  Enjoy the weekend!
SP500 Short Term Update 3JUL11