Morning Audibles - Knock Knock

I got a kick out of this post last night...

AmenRa said...

Knock. Knock.
Wallst#1: Who is it?
Would you like to buy some cookies?
Wallst#1: Sure. How much?
Let me in and I'll show you the price list.
Wallst#2 (looking through peephole): Don't open the door! That's K-A-T-H-E-R-I-N-E!

September 15, 2010 12:46 AM

So I'm going to start by creating... THE SEQUEL...

That's right, the sharks are back... Largely due to this news overnight:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-15/japan-intervenes-for-first-time-since-2004-as-yen-surge-threatens-recovery.html

Japan Sells Yen for First Time Since 2004 to Aid Growth

We'll see what happens... We've already seen what happens when too many "geniuses" get caught on one side of the trade, like, that the rise in the stock market could all be chalked up to the "elections"... What happened overnight? Did I miss something? Did the "elections" get postponed or something?... Here's what happens when you apply that logic...

Now I don't want to be BE a jerk and get overly carried away by the KNEE JERK reaction to the yen buying news... There are obviously more things going on besides yen buying... There's, like, THE ELECTIONS... Right? The most powerful force in the universe... The only thing in the world capable of taming flying sharks... And that may end up reversing the tide backwards again...

So while you're sittin' there by the fireplace, drinkin cocoa on your BEAR SKIN rug... And you hear a knock on the door (ding dong, who is it?)... Ya just NEVER KNOW...

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

Creditcane™: (Horns playing in background): "The new color is gold".

SPX
Doji day. Start of evening star? Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above the trendlines (3/6/09-7/1//10), (2/5/10-5/6/10) & (4/26/10-8/9/10). Above the SMA(21), SMA(55), SMA(89) & SMA(144). Above 1110.02 (the .09 fibo from high). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1090.10). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bearish long day. Below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Closed below its 50% retrace (and weekly 3LB mid). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 82.40).



VIX
Spinning top day again. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. Still below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 23.89). Trending down on daily 3LB.



GOLD
Bullish long day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). It found the 0% retrace (new 0% coming soon). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1249.00).



EURUSD
Bullish long day again. Midpoint above EMA(10). Well above the 23.6% retrace. Above all SMA's. It's above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal now 1.2695).



JNK
Bearish short day. Evening star? Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Closed above 76.4% retrace. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 39.44).



10YR YIELD
Bearish long day (confirmed bearish engulfing). The 0.0% fibo retrace at 24.69 has been holding. Back below the 14.6% retrace (26.94) and below the weekly 3LB mid (27.60). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.99).



AUDJPY
Doji day again. Still above 38.2% retrace. Tested and failed the 50% retrace. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 75.5382).



DJ TRANS AVG
Doji day. Another evening star? Holding above the upper trendline and all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 4400.40). Trending up on the daily 3LB.



SLV
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Made a new 0% for the retrace. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 19.42).

Morning Audibles - 9.14.10

Morning Audibles? (do you know what an "audible" is)?... An "audible", in football terminology is what you see Peyton Manning doing at the line of scrimmage when the sees the defense and want's to call a better play...


Morning Audible for today?... NONE... We're going with the quick count (just stick with the play called in the huddle)... QB keeper "kneel down", on "1", ready, BREAK!



7:30: NFIB small business optimism index for Aug... The median forecast called for a reversal of the small drop reported for July, but the bias of forecasts is to the side of a weaker outcome.
Median forecast (of 9): 89, ranging from 85 to 89; last 88.1...

This number came at 88.8

8:30: Retail Sales (Aug)… We are at the upper end of the range of estimates, apparently translating retailers’ reports into a better outcome than our counterparts.  However, this is a difficult report to predict, especially as revisions often have overriding effects.

On total sales, GS: +0.6%; median forecast (of 76): +0.3%, ranging from -0.3% to +0.6%; last: +0.4%;

On sales ex autos, GS: +0.7%; median forecast (of 74): +0.3%, ranging from -0.2% to +0.7%; last +0.2%.

10:00: Business Inventories (Jul)… The median forecast implies a 1.5% drop in retail inventories as manufacturers’ inventories rose 1.0% and wholesale inventories rose 1.1%.

Median forecast (of 50): +0.7%, ranging from +0.1% to +1.1%; last +0.3%.

Just think... If it weren't for all that "compelling news", this thread would be totally bare...

Just think... If it weren't for all that "compelling news", this thread would be totally bare...

I'm already looking forward to the 4:00 hour so I can have my first THREAD BEER

Can't we get Dionysus to calculate some Elliott Waves for us?

Dionysus would probably say that despite a little weakness on the open this morning, the rest of the chart looks poised to ramp on Thursday & Friday, as the Primary Dealers apply 30x leverage to $27 billion dollars straight from Uncle Ben...

And the aggregate of all these things has DEMOTIVATED CV into declaring this... "National IMPLIED FACEPALM month"...

So raise your glass and drink a toast!

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

Creditcane™: Basel III somehow changed me to a tropical storm (for the time being).

SPX
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above the trendlines (3/6/09-7/1//10), (2/5/10-5/6/10) & (4/26/10-8/9/10). Above the SMA(21), SMA(55), SMA(89) & now SMA(144). Above 1110.02 (the .09 fibo from high). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1090.10). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bearish long day. Below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still heading for its 50% retrace. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 82.46).



VIX
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. Still below all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 23.89). Trending down on daily 3LB.



GOLD
Spinning top day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). It was heading towards the 0% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1239.90).



EURUSD
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Well above the 23.6% retrace. Above all SMA's except the SMA(144). It's above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.2875).



JNK
Bullish long day. Hanging man set free. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 39.40).




10YR YIELD
Bearish engulfing day. The 0.0% fibo retrace at 24.69 has been holding. Above the 14.6% retrace (26.94) but back below the weekly 3LB mid (27.60). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.99).



AUDJPY
Doji day. Still above 38.2% retrace. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 75.5382).




TLT
Bullish long day. Still below the SMA(21). Tested and held SMA(55) twice. Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 104.88). Trending down on the daily 3LB.



DJ TRANS AVG
Bullish long day. Well above the upper trendline and all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 4387.40). Trending up on the daily 3LB.

Sunday Evening Post & Morning Audibles

Good Evening Capitalists*,

The focus this weekend was on the Gold Market. I wish there were some great trading ideas there, but I could not find one. While the overall pattern looks like a bearish rising wedge with continued RSI divergence on the both the Monthly and Weekly scale, it's difficult to advocate a big bearish trade just yet. It looks to be in a technical "no man's land" for the next several weeks. I would much rather jump on the short train when this market first displays some sort of "impulsion" lower or can break below some supports. Otherwise, it just feels like you're fighting a band of lunatics who are convinced that Gold is the second reserve currency of the world and the only true hedge in a world that has gone mad, mad, mad.

The Dollar witnessed some bottoming action last week but now needs to explode higher. First and second levels of support are 82.40 and 81.41 for this week. We would be a dip buyer this week looking to use those levels as "stop points" on new length. A close below 81.41 would take us out of all DXY length.

The S&P 500 looks a bit toppy heading into the weekend. I'm expecting a pullback this week but think that 1065 should be support on the Cash S&P 500. Any break below 1040 should send all length to the sideline. We remain 20% of a Max Short position, looking to add to shorts on a break above 1130 or a break below 1040.

*Did you know that the word capitalism has taken on such a negative connotation that some conservative Texan educators have decided to drop the word from textbooks in favor of the more palatable term "Free Enterprise?"

The board removed the word "capitalism" from the standards, mandating that the term for that economic system be called "free enterprise" throughout the standards. Board members such as Terri Leo and Ken Mercer charged that "capitalism" is a negative term used by "liberal professors in academia."

I'm not sure what the greater "issue" is there: the fact that there some Texas crazies who get to monkey around with Social Studies textbooks; or, the idea that "Capitalism" is perceived to be a "naughty" word.

Interesting times....

Football Thought: How about them Texans?

Gold Report 12 Sep 2010

Market Update 12 Sep 10


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I'm only going to add, this morning, that YES - It's a Mad Mad Mad Mad World... (and to think, back in the day, they were all actually "searching" for the BIG "W" to end their woes)...

Now we have the BIG "O" (same as it ever was)...